While the US renews talks with Iran to cap its nuclear program, it is also negotiating to conclude an initial civil nuclear deal with Iran’s regional archrival, Saudi Arabia.
The plan has been deemed by the US Department of Energy as “an unprecedented civil nuclear cooperation,” a component of Washington’s wider vision to counterbalance the presence of Iran, China, and Russia in the region.
A Strategic Counterbalance to Iran and China
The deal is viewed as a possible nonproliferation weapon, one that would discourage Saudi Arabia from seeking nuclear weapons, particularly if Iran were to acquire them. The US administration wants to bolster its strategic presence in the region with this action, providing an alternative to alliances with Beijing and Moscow.
US Secretary of Energy Chris Wright recently went to Riyadh in a regional visit that also targets the UAE and Qatar. Talks with Saudi representatives focused on broadening strategic energy relations and determining groundwork for nuclear cooperation that responds to Saudi Vision 2030, the Saudi kingdom’s movement to diversify its economy as well as sources of energy.
Reviving a Stalled Effort with Renewed Intent
This renewed conversation occurs as Washington readies itself for a second round of nuclear negotiations with Iran over the weekend. The concurrent negotiations with Riyadh show the US desire to revive a civil nuclear deal that was previously discussed during the Biden era but failed to take shape.
A successful deal could open the way for US firms to spearhead the construction of Saudi Arabia’s initial nuclear reactors. It may also involve Saudi investment in an American-based facility to enrich uranium, which would diminish America’s reliance on Russian-enriched uranium, according to Robert Einhorn, a Senior Fellow at the Brookings Institution.
Obstacles Surrounding Enrichment and Safeguards
Progress toward a deal is tentative because of legal and diplomatic intricacies. Under Section 123 of the US Atomic Energy Act — commonly known as “123 Agreements” — any civil nuclear agreement must have rigorous non-proliferation provisions. These involve precluding uranium enrichment and reprocessing activities that can be used for weapons purposes.
Saudi Arabia has thus far stood firm against these conditions on the grounds of its sovereign right to develop an independent energy programme. In January, Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said that the kingdom will monetise its uranium resources by making and selling nuclear fuel, including yellowcake.
He further signalled Saudi Arabia’s willingness to move to full inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), away from its present limited safeguards.
Israel Raises Concerns Over Enrichment on Saudi Soil
During President Biden’s tenure, efforts to establish a civil nuclear deal with Saudi Arabia were closely tied to the goal of normalising Saudi-Israel relations — an initiative stalled over the lack of progress on the Palestinian issue.
Though the Trump administration has not explicitly made that connection, it sees Saudi Arabia as being at the heart of expanding the Abraham Accords. Riyadh insists, however, that Israel must be recognized along with actual progress toward a two-state solution.
On the issue of guarantees, Israel is still loud. The opposition leader Yair Lapid, in a post on X translated, stated, “Israel should insist on the United States, our closest ally, that any nuclear cooperation deal with Saudi Arabia clearly rule out uranium enrichment on Saudi territory.”
Agreement Likely, But Months Away
Regardless of the complications, the Biden-era structure and the Trump administration’s reengagement indicate that a deal can be made. Talking to Al Arabiya English, US Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated, “To get a specific agreement to collaborate on commercial nuclear development in Saudi Arabia, that will take a little bit longer… but based on the talks so far, I believe we’re likely to get there.
Reflecting that same optimism, Saudi Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman confirmed that the negotiations centered on broadening the two countries’ bilateral cooperation in all energy sectors.
Although negotiations should take months, both nations seem keen on the formation of a deal that caters to each other’s interests while navigating security issues in the region — most importantly, nuclear proliferation threats.