For the first time in half a century, net immigration has turned negative in the United States and under hardline immigration agenda of President Donald Trump, more people are now leaving the country than arriving. The administration views this shift as a win but economists warn it could weaken the US economy, drive up inflation, and deepen labour shortages across key industries.
The point of change arrives as the Trump administration intensifies workplace raids and border crackdowns. Uprisings have erupted in cities such as Los Angeles, where wholesale deportations have incited outrage. But experts maintain the actual cause of the shift isn’t solely deportations — it’s the steep decline in legal immigration flows.
American Enterprise Institute’s Stan Veuger said, “It’s not so much about deportations. It’s really just that inflows are off so much, not just at the southern border, but also through various legal programs.”
The foreign-born labor force has already declined by more than 1 million individuals since March, based on Labour Department statistics.
Trump Team Stands Firm
In the face of increasing economic distress, the Trump administration is standing firm. White House spokesperson Abigail Jackson recently shared with The Washington Post, “If you are here in the United States illegally, you will be deported. This is the commitment President Trump made to the American people, and the Administration is committed to keeping it.”
Trump and Vice President JD Vance contend on the stump that the country must carry out mass deportation to relieve pressure on housing and employment.
Economic Risks Mount
A new Brookings Institution paper by economists Wendy Edelberg and Tara Watson, as well as Veuger, predicts a sharp increase in the probability of negative net immigration in 2025. The study emphasizes long-term danger in this change.
In 2024, immigration had driven the percentage of foreign-born employees to record levels. Fewer immigrants now enter and more depart, threatening to hurt crucial sectors such as agriculture, construction, and hospitality—even though their earlier boost had enabled the US to bounce back from the pandemic.
Companies also anticipate surging labour expenses as they fight to fill the void left by departed workers. The writers caution that if the Trump administration succeeds in its target of removing 1 million migrants this year, the financial cost could increase.
The Bigger Picture
This is not the first time that America has witnessed migration decline. The previous steep decline happened in the 2008 financial crisis when several Mexican immigrants departed. The consequence was a diminished workforce and weakened recovery.
Now, economists fear the country will repeat the same pattern. As net immigration went negative under Trump, the U.S. is potentially walking into a slower growth and increasing cost future — one deportation at a time.