As the 14th Dalai Lama, Tenzin Gyatso, celebrates his 90th birthday this week, he is not retiring into quiet contemplation. Rather, he is rewriting history. In a daring and historic move, he has announced that his reincarnation will carry on after his passing away, and that only his trusty institution — the Gaden Phodrang Trust — can uniquely designate his successor.
This choice does more than anticipate China’s power. It sets the stage for a geopolitical and religious conflict that threatens to divide the Tibetan Buddhist world in two, into two Dalai Lamas: one chosen by the Tibetan tradition, and one forced upon it by Beijing.
Ancient Process and Its Political Hijack
Historically, a new Dalai Lama is sought only after the one who is alive dies. The senior monks learn visions, look for signs in the lakes or in dreams, and look for a child able to recognize the belongings of the deceased Dalai Lama. The religious process is slow and reverent.
This is how the present Dalai Lama was found in 1939. When two years old, he recognized belongings of his predecessor and was enthroned a year later at the Potala Palace.
Still, this custom started breaking apart after 1950, when China took over Tibet. Nine years hence, the Dalai Lama escaped to India following a rebellion that was crushed. Ever since then, China has continued to meddle in the religious affairs of Tibetans, such as when choosing senior Buddhist leaders.
Beijing’s Interference: A Prelude to the Coming Showdown
China’s ambition to dominate Tibetan Buddhism was apparent in 1995. In that year, the Dalai Lama acknowledged a six-year-old boy, Gendün Chökyi Nyima, as the Panchen Lama — the second-most influential figure in Tibetan Buddhism. China quickly kidnapped the boy and his family. They have not been heard from since. Instead, Beijing installed its own Panchen Lama, who is shunned by most Tibetans as a puppet.
This was a dress rehearsal. Experts now predict China will do the same with the Dalai Lama himself.
Dalai Lama Acts Before It’s Too Late
Feeling this risk, the Dalai Lama preempted. On July 2, a day before his 90th birthday, he issued a statement at a religious function in Dharamsala.
He confirmed that his reincarnation would occur and that the Gaden Phodrang Trust — the organization with which his office is linked — will guide the process. Senior lamas of the four schools of Tibetan Buddhism and authorized spiritual channels alone would be involved. “No one else has any such authority to interfere in this matter,” he stated, a pointed rebuff to China.
He explained that Tibetans on both sides of the Himalayas, within Tibet as well as in exile, had asked him to maintain the institution. Their request, he added, left his decision inescapable.
China Responds and So Do Tibetans
As predicted, China denied his words. A foreign ministry spokesman made it clear again that any reincarnation has to be approved by the central government. They referenced an ancient Qing dynasty ritual in which names are selected from a golden urn — something Tibetans do not follow. Chinese law even requires Communist Party sanction for all senior reincarnate lamas.
But Tibetans are holding their ground. Youdon Aukatsang, an exiled Tibetan MP, stated a China-appointed Dalai Lama would not be legitimized. “Not just Tibetans, the world will not accept it,” she stated.
Tibetan citizen Yonten explained to The Diplomat that this isn’t about religion. “This is about our freedom to decide our future without foreign control,” he explained. By announcing his successor plan now, the Dalai Lama has eliminated the political uncertainty that China had hoped to leverage.
Could the Vatican Hold the Key?
While the East identifies with a spiritual-political battle, a muted diplomatic player might make the difference — the Vatican. Although the Holy See is not officially connected to Beijing, in recent years it has carefully tumbled through Chinese religious sensitivities, particularly regarding Catholic bishop appointments.
Writers feel that if the Vatican endorsed the Gaden Phodrang-led process’s legitimacy, it would make its global acceptance of the Tibetan-elected Dalai Lama more stronger. Although the Pope and Dalai Lama have met a number of times, an official religious blessing would attract new moral boundaries — particularly from Buddhist converts in the West and in Asia.
Such a step might also resonate in other Buddhist-majority countries like Japan, Sri Lanka, and Mongolia, in granting more diplomatic leverage to the Tibetan cause.
What if Two Dalai Lama Arise?
Experts concur that Beijing will appoint its own Dalai Lama after the current one passes away. This government-supported leader will live inside Tibet and espouse Beijing’s agenda. In the meantime, the Tibetan-recognized Dalai Lama, who is most likely identified outside of China, will reside outside of China — possibly in India.
This division will cause confusion, competition, and a divided world-wide Buddhist community. However, it will also challenge China’s soft power. The majority of world Buddhists, particularly non-Chinese ones, are probably to take the Tibetan route. Beijing might prevail only on its home ground and in its own allies.
A Diplomatic Opportunity for India
The crisis of succession presents India with a rare soft power opportunity. Having hosted the Dalai Lama since 1959, India has accumulated colossal goodwill among the Tibetan diaspora. If two Dalai Lamas emerge, India’s public endorsement of the rightful Tibetan process may make New Delhi the moral custodian of Tibetan Buddhism.
It would also enable India to counterbalance China on the global stage, joining Buddhist nations like Bhutan, Thailand, and Vietnam. It might even unlock new opportunities in Southeast Asian diplomacy, where Buddhism is still an influence on culture.
Two Dalai Lama: What Lies Ahead?
The Dalai Lama’s pre-emptive strike has re-written centuries of convention, not in defiance but because of the need. He has put trust ahead of fear and opted for clarity rather than ambiguity. While China is getting its own story in line, the world is poised for an unprecedented religious and geopolitical showdown.
Two Dalai Lamas will soon inhabit the planet — but just one will bear the heart of Tibet.