Pakistan is working on a nuclear-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) capable of hitting the United States, according to a detailed paper released by Foreign Affairs.
The report warns that if Pakistan acquires or builds such a weapon, Washington will consider it a nuclear rival, just like Russia, China, and North Korea.
“If Pakistan develops an ICBM, Washington will have no option but to view the nation as a nuclear rival. No nation with ICBMs capable of striking America is a friend,” US officials told the report.
Strategic Shift Causes Alarm in Washington
This report follows growing speculation that Islamabad is expanding its nuclear capabilities, reportedly with Chinese help, after India’s Operation Sindoor launched last month.
Pakistan has consistently claimed that it designed its nuclear programme exclusively to deter India and developed short- and medium-range missiles for that purpose. Significantly, in 2022, Pakistan successfully tested the Shaheen-III, a surface-to-surface medium-range ballistic missile with a range of more than 2,700 km, sufficient for hitting several Indian cities.
An ICBM represents an entirely different class of weapon—it travels over 5,500 km and carries either nuclear or conventional warheads. Up to now, there is no ICBM in Pakistan’s listed arsenal.
Why Pakistan May Be Building an ICBM
The Foreign Affairs report surmises that Pakistan is possibly seeking an ICBM to deter any prospective US preventive strike meant to neutralize its nuclear potential. These concerns may have been strengthened due to recent US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
Experts opine that the missile would also be a strategic warning to the US against interfering if hostilities flare up again between India and Pakistan. The move has perturbed Washington, which has already initiated penal action.
The US 2023 slapped new sanctions on Pakistan’s long-range missile programme. The US government froze the assets of the National Development Complex, which controls Pakistan’s missile systems, and three related entities, and prohibited them from doing business with American companies. Islamabad reacted to the sanctions as “biased.”
Global Implications and NPT Status
Neither India nor Pakistan is a signatory to the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), the central international agreement for averting the proliferation of nuclear weapons and promoting peaceful nuclear energy use.
As alarm about this trend grows, Pakistan’s development of an ICBM would radically redefine the global nuclear balance and complicate US policy in South Asia even further.