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Day One Done: US-China Trade Talks Resume Sunday Amid Global Stakes

May 11, 2025, 2:25 am

Senior US and Chinese officials ended the initial day of high-stakes trade negotiations in Geneva on Saturday as they sought to reduce rising tensions between the two largest economies of the world. The talks that took about eight hours saw the attendance of Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Negotiations will resume on Sunday, according to a person familiar with the situation.

This was the first in-person exchange between the two nations’ best negotiators after the US and China levied over 100% tariffs on the other’s exports, essentially paralyzing around $600 billion of annual bilateral trade. The meeting was conducted quietly at Switzerland’s UN ambassador’s private villa set in Geneva’s affluent suburb Cologny.

Neither side issued statements or indicated any breakthrough after Saturday’s meeting. There has been escalating tension in recent weeks, after President Donald Trump’s broad tariff actions and China’s tit-for-tat moves. The wider impact has threatened global supply chains, shaken financial markets, and threatened a global economic slowdown.

Washington is compelling Beijing to limit the $295 billion trade shortfall and implement reforms that curtail its dependence on export-led expansion. Conversely, China insists on equitable treatment, the reversal of tariffs, and transparency of American expectations.

China’s state Xinhua News Agency condemned US tariff strategy but made a positive reception of the talks as a constructive move. It underlined Beijing’s strong commitment to defending its interests in development and its resolve to uphold the international order of trade.

As talks resume Sunday, the globe is looking closely for signals of easing in a conflict with very extensive ramifications.

China Appoints Li Chenggang as New International Trade Representative

April 16, 2025, 6:54 pm

Amid ongoing trade tensions with the United States, Li Chenggang has been appointed as China’s new international trade representative and vice minister of commerce.
The State Council of China in a statement on Wednesday said, “Li Chenggang has been appointed China international trade representative with the Ministry of Commerce and vice minister of commerce, replacing Wang Shouwen.”

On 26 December 2020, Li Chenggang was appointed as the Permanent Representative & Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to the World Trade Organisation, and Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Office at Geneva (UNOG) and other International Organisations in Switzerland, of the People’s Republic of China.

Prior to that, Li had been Assistant Minister in the Ministry of Commerce of China (MOFCOM) since December 2016. In November 2010, he was appointed as Director-General of the Department of Treaty and Law, MOFCOM, and served as Vice Mayor of Qingdao from February 2013 to February 2014.

The latest development follows China’s retaliatory measures, which led to tariffs of up to 245 per cent on imports from the United States, according to a fact sheet released by the White House. Prior to this increase, Chinese exports to the US were subject to tariffs of up to 145 per cent.

US President Donald Trump had imposed reciprocal tariffs on dozens of countries with which Amereica has a trade deficit. Later, President Trump decided to pause the tariffs for 90 days after many countries initiated talks with the US administration for a trade deal.

“More than 75 countries have already reached out to discuss new trade deals,” the White House fact sheet said. “As a result, the individualised higher tariffs are currently paused amid these discussions, except for China, which retaliated,” the fact sheet added.

For the time being, a baseline tariff of 10 per cent would be applicable on US imports.

President Trump imposed a 10 per cent tariff on all countries and individualised reciprocal higher tariffs on nations with which the US has the largest trade deficits in order to level the playing field and protect America’s national security.

President Trump unveiled the “Fair and Reciprocal Plan” on trade to restore fairness in US trade relationships and counter non-reciprocal trade agreements.

Trump’s reciprocal tariffs have led to a broad-based fall in financial markets globally, with markets plunging in Asia and Europe. The reciprocal tariffs have set off a sell-off in equities globally, and the US itself is no exception. Investors fear that the moves concerning global trade may raise inflation, risking economic growth.

Since assuming office for his second term, President Trump has reiterated his stance on tariff reciprocity, emphasising that the United States will match tariffs imposed by other countries, including India, to ensure fair trade.

**This story has not been edited by The Daily Guardian staff and is published from a syndicated feed.

Trillions at Stake: How US-China Tech War Could Derail India’s Dream

April 16, 2025, 12:53 am

The economic war of the century has begun—not with bombs or warships, but with spreadsheets, tariffs, and technology bans. And India may soon find itself in the blast radius.
In a stunning geopolitical move that sent shockwaves across boardrooms from Detroit to Shenzhen, the United States in early 2024 slapped an unprecedented 125% tariff on Chinese electric vehicles (EVs). The official rationale? National security. The real motive? A dramatic acceleration of a covert economic war between the world’s two largest economies—one that could permanently fracture the global economy.
As the U.S. escalates this high-tech showdown to contain China’s rise, the chaos it unleashes is now bleeding into global markets, dismantling alliances, and shattering long-held economic assumptions. And in the eye of this storm stands India—ambitious, rising, and uniquely vulnerable.

Tariff Heard Around the World
The Biden administration’s 125% tariff wasn’t a trade policy—it was a message wrapped in steel. With China’s EV exports surging and its dominance in battery tech solidifying, Washington decided it had seen enough. The U.S. move was a blunt-force policy weapon, aimed at decoupling American consumers from Chinese technology and halting China’s growing global influence in clean tech.
But what Washington framed as “protecting American jobs” is really the economic equivalent of an arms race. Beijing’s response? Aggressive hints at retaliatory bans on rare earths, pricing warfare in key commodities, and diplomatic snubs at Western forums. Welcome to the new battlefield: one fought not with tanks, but with algorithms, lithium, and leverage.

India: The Middle Child Caught in
the Crossfire
For India, this is both an opportunity and a nightmare. On paper, the West’s pivot away from China creates space for India to become the next big manufacturing destination. But reality is never that simple.
India imports over 70% of its lithium-ion cells and modules from China. Its pharmaceutical industry—projected to be a $130 billion sector by 2030—relies on Chinese APIs. Its EV push is being fueled (ironically) by Chinese tech. So when Washington says, “Cut ties with China,” it isn’t just advice—it’s an economic ultimatum with sharp consequences.
Indian companies are already facing scrutiny from U.S. regulators. Any indirect association with Chinese supply chains is being flagged in background checks, compliance audits, and investment clearances. A whisper of “Made in China” is becoming a red flag in global corridors of power.
Worse still, India risks being pulled into a compliance web: one where doing business with either superpower means violating the rules of the other.

The Economic Dominoes
Falling Fast
Let’s connect the dots. If China retaliates by limiting exports of critical minerals—such as graphite, cobalt, or gallium—India’s semiconductor dreams could collapse before takeoff. This isn’t hypothetical: in October 2023, China already imposed curbs on graphite, and it controls over 90% of global refining capacity.
India’s EV industry, expected to be a $200 billion opportunity by 2030, could be smothered under battery price shocks and sourcing chaos. Startups may collapse. Foreign investors, already jittery from global interest rate hikes, could begin to exit the Indian market. The rupee could slip, the bond market could tighten, and India’s inflation—already sticky—could spike again.
Meanwhile, FIIs are watching the chaos closely. One prolonged retaliatory move by China or a new round of U.S. sanctions, and capital flight could accelerate. Add a spike in crude oil (with India importing 85% of its needs), and a 1991-style BoP shock scenario isn’t far-fetched.
The Digital
Battlefield: Tech Iron Curtain of US
“India must avoid becoming collateral damage in a war it didn’t start—but is being asked to finish.”— Dr. Ojha’s warning to Indian policymakers
The war isn’t just over cars and minerals. The real contest is over control of the digital universe. The U.S. is pushing global tech standards that enshrine its dominance in AI, cloud computing, and semiconductors. Meanwhile, China is building an alternative ecosystem—autonomous, sovereign, and aggressively competitive.
India, with its Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) success story, is being courted by both. Washington wants India to sign onto AI alignment frameworks. China, through BRICS+, is offering sovereign digital models and yuan-based e-currencies.
Choosing sides here is choosing the future of Indian technology—and its access to capital, AI chips, and digital platforms. Refuse U.S. alignment, and India may face a squeeze on cutting-edge technologies. Align with it, and China could retaliate economically—or worse, escalate on the border.

Forecast: Global Recession, Asian Realignment, Indian Instability
Here’s the near-term outlook from the frontline of the economic war:
• Global recession by mid-2026 driven by fractured supply chains, slower capital formation, and retaliatory trade practices.
• EV price inflation of 25–30% across Asia, squeezing India’s green transition ambitions.
• Capital outflow of $15–20 billion from Indian equities and bonds, mostly from tech, green energy, and fintech sectors.
• Severe inflation in electronics and solar module pricing, hitting India’s PLI (Production-Linked Incentive) schemes hard.
• Strategic tech divergence—India being forced to split AI, semiconductor, and telecom ecosystems between U.S. and BRICS-aligned protocols.
• Military tension spillover, with skirmishes on the LAC possible as Beijing uses hybrid escalation to test India’s alignment.

The Silent Costs: Jobs, Innovation, Sovereignty
This economic war isn’t being fought on Indian streets—but its impact will be felt in small factories in Pune, IT labs in Bengaluru, and EV showrooms in Noida. The job losses, the inflation, and the disrupted startups will speak of a global rivalry India didn’t ask for—but one it must now survive.
What’s worse, the sovereignty trap is deepening. India risks ceding digital independence by being forced to adopt external governance standards. Whether it’s cloud data, AI regulation, or chip design protocols, India is being boxed into foreign frameworks that may benefit superpowers more than sovereign economies.

The Strategic Playbook India Needs Now
India must not just react to this chaos—it must strategize for asymmetric advantage. The current war is less about winning and more about surviving without bleeding out. A few urgent steps could determine whether India rises from this crucible—or crumbles:
1. Decouple Critical Dependencies: Fast-track local production of APIs, semiconductors, batteries, and defense gear.
2. Geopolitical Hedging: Continue strategic autonomy—refuse to become a vassal to either Washington or Beijing.
3. Digital Non-Alignment 2.0: Champion an indigenous digital governance model rooted in constitutional and ethical values.
4. Shockproof the Financial System: Boost forex reserves, diversify trade, and strengthen currency hedging frameworks.
5. Create a Dual-Track EV Ecosystem: One aligned with the West for high-end exports, another cost-effective for domestic needs.

War Has Changed—And India Must Change Too
The global economy is no longer driven by competition—it is driven by containment, confrontation, and coercion. The 125% U.S. tariff on Chinese EVs may one day be seen as the economic assassination that triggered the downfall of globalization.
India’s position as the world’s most populous democracy, a tech powerhouse, and a rising geopolitical actor gives it leverage. But in war—especially economic war—neutrality is not safety. It is a target.
The choices India makes today—on supply chains, tech partnerships, and foreign policy—will determine whether it becomes the bridge between global power centers or the battleground they fight over.
The war has begun. It’s invisible. It’s relentless. And it’s coming for your economy next.

Dr. Nishakant is a distinguished international expert in foreign diplomacy and counter-terrorism, with a specialized focus on strategic policy formulation.

Two World Collided: Biden To Meet Xi In Peru For High-Stakes Final Talks As US President

November 14, 2024, 12:23 pm

US President Joe Biden is set to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping in Lima, Peru, on Saturday, marking the last of their in-person meetings during Biden’s presidency. The two leaders will gather on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) forum, five days after their last face-to-face encounter at the same summit in 2023.

Diminishing Power as Biden Prepares to Depart Office

With Biden’s second term nearing its end, his political influence has waned, while Xi is already looking ahead to challenges with incoming US President Donald Trump. Trump, who has promised to intensify his trade war with China, aims to impose heavy tariffs on Chinese imports. Biden’s team has declined to comment on whether the president will address Trump’s policies during his meeting with Xi, or discuss the transition plans.

Stability and Predictability Key Themes for Biden

National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the main focus of the meeting will be on maintaining “stability, clarity, and predictability” in the US-China relationship during the transition period. Biden is expected to underscore the importance of sustaining open communication channels and addressing critical issues like China’s support for Russia and ongoing cybersecurity concerns.

Military, Counter-Narcotics, and AI: Areas of Diplomacy Progress

Biden will highlight the progress made in military-to-military communications, counter-narcotics efforts, and artificial intelligence (AI) during their previous meetings, especially those that have reduced tensions between the two countries. Despite the challenging landscape, Biden is expected to showcase his administration’s strategy of “intense diplomacy” in its dealings with China.

Cybersecurity Concerns and Chinese Hacking Allegations

The meeting comes on the heels of an alleged Chinese hack of US telecommunications networks, which the intelligence community is investigating. The cyber attack, attributed to a Chinese hacking group known as Salt Typhoon, infiltrated American telecom systems and targeted both the Trump campaign and Vice President Kamala Harris’ campaign. Biden is likely to raise the issue of cyber-enabled espionage in his talks with Xi, warning that such attacks will lead to further decoupling of US and Chinese technology.

Future US-China Relations Under Trump

Looking ahead, US-China relations could face new turbulence. President-elect Trump has appointed several hardline officials, including Marco Rubio as Secretary of State and Mike Waltz as National Security Advisor, both known for their tough stance on China. These appointments signal potential shifts in policy that could complicate the diplomatic ties that Biden’s administration has worked to stabilize.

Ongoing US-China Disputes

The Biden administration continues to challenge China on multiple fronts, including the South China Sea, Taiwan, and Ukraine. It has also imposed new technology restrictions, added tariffs, and placed a ban on Chinese electric vehicles. While Biden’s team emphasizes the importance of communication, they recognize that managing the US-China relationship will remain a key task for the next administration.

As Biden’s term comes to a close, both leaders are preparing for a delicate meeting that could set the tone for future relations between the two superpowers.

Day 2 Of US National Security Adviser Talks With Chinese Officials Amid Rising Tensions

August 28, 2024, 11:34 am

US President Joe Biden’s national security adviser, Jake Sullivan, continued his discussions with top Chinese officials in Beijing on Wednesday, as part of a three-day visit aimed at reducing tensions between the two superpowers ahead of the US election on November 5. Sullivan and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, began their talks on Tuesday, with meetings and a dinner at a resort on the outskirts of Beijing.

Addressing a Range of Global Issues

The discussions, set to continue until Thursday, cover a broad spectrum of contentious issues. US and China are currently at odds over the conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine, China’s territorial claims over Taiwan and the South China Sea, and trade disputes.

“Over the past few years, bilateral relations have gone through twists and turns,” Wang Yi noted during a press briefing on Tuesday. Sullivan acknowledged the complexities of the relationship, stating, “We’ll delve into a wide range of issues, including areas of agreement and those where differences remain, which we need to manage effectively.”

Biden’s Diplomacy vs. Republican Criticism

In the final months of his presidency, Biden has emphasized direct diplomacy with China to influence President Xi Jinping and manage bilateral tensions. If Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic candidate in the upcoming election, wins, she is expected to maintain a similar diplomatic approach. However, many analysts aligned with Republican former President Donald Trump criticize this strategy as too lenient, given China’s increasingly assertive foreign policy.

Key Issues on the Table

Sullivan aims to expand military-to-military talks with China, down to the theater command level, to prevent potential conflicts in sensitive areas like the Taiwan Strait. Additionally, the US seeks Chinese action to curb the production of chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl, a leading cause of drug overdoses in the US, and to establish safety standards for artificial intelligence.

China, on the other hand, plans to voice its opposition to US tariffs on various manufactured goods and export controls targeting Chinese chip makers. Beijing is also expected to reaffirm its sovereignty claims over Taiwan, which remains a critical point of contention in US-China relations.

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan Engages In High-Stakes Talks With China

August 27, 2024, 1:17 pm

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan is set to meet with top Chinese officials in Beijing from August 27-29. The talks aim to ease growing tensions between the two superpowers ahead of the November US presidential election. This visit marks the first time a US national security advisor has traveled to Beijing since 2016.

Taiwan and Military Pressures

Sullivan will address China’s escalating military, diplomatic, and economic pressures on Taiwan. Following the inauguration of Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te, China has conducted aggressive military drills around the island, highlighting Beijing’s stance on unifying Taiwan, potentially through force.

South China Sea Disputes

The talks are expected to cover the South China Sea, where recent disputes have involved China, Japan, and the Philippines. Japan has accused China of airspace violations, while the Philippines has labeled Beijing as a major disruptor of regional peace.

China’s Support for Russia

Another topic will be China’s support for Russia amid its military expansion following the Ukraine invasion. While China argues that it does not directly supply weapons, the US is concerned about Beijing’s indirect support for Moscow.

Technology and Trade Restrictions

Sullivan is also anticipated to discuss US restrictions on technology transfers to China, a key issue in the broader economic competition between the two nations. Washington aims to address safety standards for artificial intelligence and prevent the production of fentanyl precursor chemicals in China.

Potential Xi-Biden Meeting

Reports suggest there is a high likelihood but low expectation of a summit between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping. The outcome of Sullivan’s talks could influence future diplomatic engagements between the two leaders.

The discussions between Sullivan and China’s top diplomat, Wang Yi, will continue a series of meetings held over the past year and a half, aimed at resolving these complex issues and fostering better bilateral relations.

US-China Nuclear Talks Address Taiwan Concerns Amidst Strategic Reassurances

June 22, 2024, 6:12 pm

United States and China held semi-official nuclear arms talks for the first time in five years in March, as reported by ‘The Hindu’ on Thursday. During these discussions, Chinese representatives assured the US that they would not use nuclear threats regarding Taiwan. This reassurance came after the US expressed concerns about China using nuclear weapons if it faced defeat in a conflict over Taiwan. The conflict over Taiwan goes back to when China had claimed sovereignty over Taiwan since it’s independence from British in 1949. However, the island has opposed it, asserting it’s right to autonomy.

David Santoro, who organized the talks for the US, said Chinese delegates were confident they could win a traditional war over Taiwan without nuclear weapons. Track Two talks, like this one, are informal discussions involving non-governmental representatives from different countries to address mutual concerns and build trust. These discussions took place for over two days in a Shanghai hotel, with US participants including former officials and scholars, and the Chinese delegation made up of scholars and former military officers.

A US State Department spokesperson said that while Track Two talks can be helpful, they cannot replace formal negotiations, which need participants to speak authoritatively on very specific issues. The United States Department of Defense had raised concerns about China’s growing nuclear arsenal, which had grown by over 20% from 2021 to 2023. It also noted that China might use nuclear weapons to restore deterrence if it faced a military defeat in Taiwan.

The recent Track Two talks are part of a well-established dialogue on nuclear weapons that had stopped after the Trump administration cut funding in 2019. These semi-official discussions resumed after the pandemic and focused on security and energy issues, with the Shanghai meeting specifically discussing nuclear weapons and policies.

William Alberque, a nuclear policy expert at the Henry Stimson Centre, stressed the need to keep talking with China despite low expectations, especially given the current US-China tensions. Last year, the US Department of Defense estimated China had 500 nuclear warheads, which could exceed to 1,000 by 2030, compared to 1,770 and 1,710 for the US and Russia, simultaneously. China is updating its arsenal with new ballistic missile submarines, hypersonic warheads, and regular nuclear sea patrols which can result in the formation of a “nuclear triad.”

During the talks, a key topic was whether China still followed its no-first-use and minimal deterrence policies, which began in the early 1960s. Minimal deterrence means having just enough nuclear weapons to prevent attacks. China, like India, has pledged not to start a nuclear war. However, some Chinese military analysts suggest that the no-first-use policy might be conditional and could involve using nuclear weapons against Taiwan’s allies.

Santoro reported that Chinese delegates reassured their commitment to China’s no-first-use nuclear policy and stated that China is not attempting to match or surpass the US in nuclear capabilities. This statement was confirmed by US delegate Lyle Morris. A report on the discussions is being prepared for the US government but it will remain confidential.

Bonnie Jenkins, the top US arms control official, mentioned that China had not responded to proposals for reducing nuclear-weapons risks raised during last year’s formal talks. China has also not agreed to more government-to-government meetings. A State Department spokesperson added that China’s refusal to engage raises questions about its unclear no-first-use policy and overall nuclear strategy.

During the Track Two discussions, the Chinese delegation did not provide details about their nuclear modernization efforts. Alberque noted that China relies on “risk and opacity” to counter US nuclear superiority and sees no need for detailed talks. China’s expanded arsenal includes anti-ship cruise missiles, bombers, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and submarines, which go beyond what a state with a minimal deterrence and no-first-use policy needs.

US delegates said Chinese talking points focused on ensuring their nuclear weapons would survive a first strike. They claimed their modernization efforts are meant to deter and cope with US missile defenses, surveillance, and stronger alliances. Washington’s nuclear policy allows for the use of nuclear weapons if deterrence fails, but only in extreme situations.

US And China Agreed To Deal With Maritime Risks Through Dialogue

May 28, 2024, 3:14 pm

In a major development related to US-China relations, both countries have recently conducted consultations on maritime affairs. As announced by the Chinese foreign ministry, both countries have agreed to uphold dialogue and manage risks on Tuesday.

Earlier on Friday, China declared, that both sides gave their views on the prevailing maritime situation.

After a lengthy discussion, they have agreed to uphold communication and not entertain any miscalculations or misunderstandings.

During the discussion, China discussed its serious concerns over United States’s alleged infringement in their waters and has also asked Washington to not interfere in disputes between China and its neighbours nor utilize the sea to allegedly control China.

In addition, the Chinese ministry also asked US to stop supporting Taiwan and its alleged independent forces.

Later, it has also requested US, to not to pick any sides in south China sea. This request comes around the time, when America has recently given an extension to security deal with Philippines in March 2024.

As a result, China is not too happy about this development.

Amidst US-China trade war, Microsoft invests in UAE-based firm

April 17, 2024, 12:46 pm

American multinational company Microsoft will now invest $1.5 billion in a UAE-based technology firm which will be Supervised by the national security adviser of the country.

This deal was jointly announced by Microsoft and Abu-Dhabi based, G42 company (technology holding company) on Tuesday. According to the Agreement, the president of Microsoft Brad Smith will now be part of the G42’s board of directors.

According to Microsoft, the deal was developed in consultation with both the UAE and U.S. governments.

Identifying as an AI firm, G42 operates data-centers primarily in the Middle East and It is also operating in other locations. And has recently invented an Arabic language AI model called Jais.

The American company further announced that its both AI applications and services will now be run by G42, in its cloud computing platform.

It will also additionally enhance digital infrastructure in nations where the G42 company holds considerable presence. Primarily in the Middle East, Central Asia and Africa.

But this UAE-based company too isn’t without its fair share of controversies. G42 has recently faced spying due to its closeness with the mobile app allegedly identified as a spyware. Followed by the claims that it has secretly collected genetic data for the Chinese government from Americans.

However, this deal comes around the time, when G42 had previously declared that it will sever its ties with Chinese hardware suppliers due to American concerns regarding the company’s proximity to the Chinese government.

Spokesperson Brittany Caplin further announced in a written statement that with responsible management, the investments like these have the potential to expand innovation in digital technology in the whole world.

“When responsibly managed, investments like the one announced today have the potential to further innovation in digital technologies around the world,”

Chinese officials attack Biden on his statement that “pandemic is a thing of past”

September 24, 2022, 2:46 pm

The officials of the Chinese government questioned US President Joe Biden after his statement in which he said that pandemic is now a thing of the past.Joe Biden had said in an interview, “The pandemic is over. We still have a problem with COVID. We’re still doing a lot of work on it. But the pandemic is over. If you notice, no one’s wearing masks. Everybody seems to be in pretty good shape, and so I think it’s changing.”China official Lijian Zhao posed the question with a photo showing “facts” on US Covid data. The photo said, “An average of nearly 400 Americans die from Covid-19 in a day. Around 8% of working-age Americans currently have long Covid.”It further said, “2 to 4 million Americans are out of work due to long Covid. The US is operating under Covid-19 public health emergency conditions.”Dr. Anthony Fauci, Biden’s top medical adviser and the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, had also said, “We are not where we need to be if we’re going to be able to, quote, ‘live with the virus,’ because we know we’re not going to eradicate it.”He also said, “How we respond and how we’re prepared for the evolution of these variants is going to depend on us and that gets to the other conflicting aspect of this — is the lack of a uniform acceptance of the interventions that are available to us in this country.”

China deploys aircrafts near Taiwan, warns US to withdraw support

August 3, 2022, 11:02 am

US House Speaker Nancy Palosi meets with Taiwan’s President Tsai-ing-wen on Wednesday to recapitulate the US’s support for the island country and ensure the US’ determination to preserve Taiwan’s sovereignty.

Pelosi said, “America has made a bedrock promise to always stand with Taiwan.” On this strong foundation, we’ve got a thriving partnership grounded in self-government and self-determination focused on mutual security in the region and the world committed to economic prosperity. “

As China has been asserting control over the sovereign island, it has condemned the US speaker’s decision to visit Taiwan.

Pelosi landed in Taiwan on Tuesday, shortly after which the Taiwan air defence identification zone confirmed that Beijing has increased air traffic controls around Xiamen, the coastal city closest to the island, and has warned the US that it will “pay the price.” Twenty-one Chinese military aircraft were seen flying into the southwestern part of Taiwan.

During her meeting with Tsai Ing-wen at the presidential office in Taipei, Pelosi referred to Taiwan as a flourishing nation. She also stated that Taipei had shown the rest of the world that, despite its difficulties, hope and perseverance can create a peaceful and successful future.

Furthermore, she said, “Now, more than ever, America’s solidarity with Taiwan is crucial. That’s the message we bring in today.”

“Today the world faces a choice between democracy and autocracy,” Pelosi said, adding, “America’s determination to preserve democracy here in Taiwan and around the world remains ironclad.”

Earlier, Pelosi also had a meeting with Tsai-Chi-Chang, the deputy speaker of Taiwan, in the Parliament.

In the meeting she mentioned, “We come in friendship to Taiwan, we come in peace for the region.”

She also said,”Now we look forward to our conversation about how we can work together to save the planet from the climate crisis. We thank you for your leadership and we want the world to recognise it. Our visit was about human rights, unfair trade practices, and security issues.

US-CHINA DECOUPLING AND INDIA

January 4, 2021, 2:41 am

The global pandemic, on the heels of a bruising trade war and national security concerns over Huawei, has given new fuel to the US-China decoupling argument. The concentration of medical equipment and supplies manufacturing, in desperate need across the world, has brought this clamoring to a fevered pitch. But a truly decoupled relationship will further complicate our ability to address many of the world’s most daunting and vexing challenges, from climate change, coordinating efforts for the current and next pandemic, and ensuring security. And the economic costs would be significant for the US. We found in our recent econometric analysis of data till January 2020 that the US exports lose about 1.6 times more than Chinese exports, for every percent point increase in tariff rates.

There are many legitimate grievances among US businesses, workers, and others on China’s trade and domestic economic policies. And moves towards decoupling have taken root on both sides, beginning with China’s Great Firewall. China has transgressed on a number of fronts: Intellectual property and trade secret theft, industrial subsidies, limited market access in certain sectors, and the overlapping, entangled relationships between major corporations and the Communist Party. Many of these issues stem from China’s model of growth, where factors of production are directly or indirectly controlled by the state.

First, the economic pain will be felt by US households and businesses alike. China is the source of more than $400 billion in global intermediate goods and $452 billion in goods sold to the US. This has become acutely apparent during the current crisis and high concentration of personal protection equipment and pharmaceuticals, both medicines and ingredients, manufactured in China.

Many of the goods produced in China have few substitutes, and for many households, demand for these goods is weakly responsive to prices. Estimates over the past year have shown that the long-term effect of US tariffs on Chinese goods will cost households between $800 and $1,000 per year.

It’s true that many foreign companies are re-evaluating their exposure to China. Few locations around the world even now can compete with the manufacturing base and infrastructure of China, even with rising wages. For those not invested in access to the domestic market, diversifying production for many has become an imminent and pressing objective. This was made all the more necessary by a bruising (and still ongoing) trade war and the economic shutdown due to the coronavirus. But diversification is not the same as decoupling, the latter being a complete or significant severing of economic ties.

Second, punitive measures seldom work in inducing better behavior. Decoupling would be fostered through sustaining elevated tariffs indefinitely. The primary tools in the arsenal of US trade policy are tariffs, export controls, import controls, and non-tariff barriers. The Trump Administration has relied heavily on all these tools to force a wedge in US-China economic relations. Tariffs and retaliatory tariffs have cut into these trade flows. US exports to China fell nearly 20% in constant dollar terms from 2017 to 2019, and 9% from 2018 to 2019. For many US manufacturers and commodities producers, China is the major source of demand (soybean farmers alone in 2017 exported the equivalent of one third of their output to China).

Previously, we had predicted a trillion dollar loss over ten years from the sustained upholding of these tariffs, as covered in global media. Based on our analysis using a widely used global supply chain economic model named GTAP, the losses in GDP from the Covid-19 crisis could peak at $0.75 trillion in China and $1 trillion in the US, if the shutdown sustains for the rest of this year.

Using decoupling to separate/isolate China is ridden with weaknesses. China’s Belt and Road Initiative and soft power campaign will make it difficult for US allies to comply. China is already the second largest economy in the world and surging source of innovation. Instead, multilateral trade pacts—expressly anathema to the outgoing Trump Administration—have the best chance of encouraging better trade practices. A resurrected TPP (already in place as the CPTPP among the remaining 11 members) would carry enormous weight with the US behind it. Such a framework, rather than punishing China, would incentivize its leadership to reform from within to become part of a pact representing 40% of the global economy. We found, in our UNESCAP study, that such a strategy of trade liberalization, to benefit the world as a whole in the context of TPP among other deals. In an independent analysis we pursued for this article, using GTAP model, we observed that the US has a potential to reduce the exports from China by $3 billion, while boosting its GDP by $11 billion, if the US were to join TPP and signs TTIP now.

As we show in our recent analysis, irrespective of whether it is a ‘positive’ decoupling wherein many countries join hands together and reduce their tariffs mutually leaving out China, or ‘negative’ decoupling wherein many countries raise tariffs against China, with similar reciprocation from China, the world would still stay dependent deeply on China for the large part. With a positive decoupling, it is possible to slightly reduce such dependencies while strengthening the domestic capacities and trade among the other partners.

India is also no exception to this broad inference, though during Covid-19, India’s trade deficit with China has come down significantly—this is merely a short run fluctuation that may be reversed in the near future when the economies recover. Therefore, while we must continue our efforts to improve efficiencies and capacities domestically and forge partnerships globally, it is not necessarily a ‘good’ policy or an ‘easy’ exercise to explicitly decouple from China. Possibly, India can potentially enhance its investment climate and introduce market reforms so as to attract existing investments that may move away from China.

The Covid-19 virus has exposed many of the fault lines in relationship with China. Decoupling will do nothing to resolve these issues, to the detriment of the global economy.

Spencer Cohen, a Senior Fellow with Infinite Sum Modelling LLC, Seattle, USA, is a leading expert on Chinese and US regional economic and trade issues. Badri Narayanan is the founding director of Infinite Sum Modelling, Seattle and a senior economist with University of Washington Seattle.

Trump signs Tibet policy, stops China from installing own Dalai Lama

December 29, 2020, 2:42 am

Less than a week after the US Senate unanimously passed the Tibetan Policy and Support Act (TPSA) of 2020 despite China’s protest, President Donald Trump has signed it into law, a decision that strengthened the American policy on Tibet and reaffirmed the government’s steadfast support for the Dalai Lama and the Central Tibetan Administration.

The US Congress had approved of the omnibus spending bill, which had the TPSA attached, last week.

By calling for larger stimulus checks in the Covid-19 relief bill, Trump initially proclaimed he would not sign the omnibus spending bill until larger checks were made available for Americans. However, to avoid a government shutdown, Trump signed the spending bill.

Welcoming the historic legislation, CTA President Lobsang Sangay said on Monday: “This legislation sends a powerful message of hope and justice to the Tibetans inside Tibet and bolsters US support for the protection of Tibetan people’s religious freedom, human rights, environmental rights and exile Tibetan democracy like never before.

“On behalf of the CTA and six million Tibetans, I extend deepest gratitude to President Trump for signing the profoundly historic bill. I would also like thank once again the US Congress for passing the bill, especially the sponsors Senators Marco Rubio and Ben Cardin; and Congressmen Jim McGovern and Chris Smith for introducing in the House and Senate. “Thanks to everyone who contributed to making this a reality.”

In a video message on Monday to Tibetans around the world, Sangay attributed the landmark legislation to the tireless efforts of the Dalai Lama, courage and resilience of six million Tibetans inside Tibet and the collective efforts of Tibetans and friends around the world.

Built on the historic Tibet Policy Act of 2002, the TPSA makes it official the US policy that decisions regarding the reincarnation of the Dalai Lama are exclusively within the authority of the current Dalai Lama, Tibetan Buddhist leaders and the Tibetan people.

Any interference by Chinese government officials will be met with serious sanctions and be deemed inadmissible into the US.

The bill not only enumerates the evolution of Tibetan democracy under the guidance of the Dalai Lama but also commends him for his decision to implement democratic governance and also commends the Tibetan exile community for successfully adopting a system of self-governance with democratic institutions to choose their leaders.

In a significant achievement for the Tibetan movement, the bill formally acknowledged the CTA as the legitimate institution reflecting the aspirations of the Tibetan diaspora around the world and the Sikyong as the President of the CTA.

It strengthened funding for Tibetans inside and outside Tibet. The TPSA also introduces new key provisions aimed at protecting the environment and water resources on the Tibetan plateau.

It recognises the importance of traditional Tibetan grassland stewardship in mitigating the negative effects of climate change in the region as opposed to the Chinese government’s forced resettlement of the Tibetan nomads. In addition, it calls for greater international cooperation to monitor the environment on the Tibetan plateau.

American citizens and companies engaged in business activities in Tibet are encouraged to practice corporate social responsibility and to adhere to the UN Guiding Principles on Business and Human Rights.

The TPSA also authorises a number of appropriations for Tibet and Tibetan related issues, including (not less than) $8 million for Tibetan communities in the Tibet Autonomous Region and in other Tibetan communities in China; $6 million for Tibetan communities in India and Nepal; $3 million to strengthen the capacity of Tibetan institutions and governance in exile; over $3.4 million and $4 million respectively for Voice of America’s and Radio Free Asia’s reporting on Tibet and Tibetans; $1 million for Office of the United States Special Coordinator for Tibetan Issues, among others.

Finally in order to promote access to Tibet as enumerated in the Reciprocal Access to Tibet Act of 2018, the TPSA calls for the establishment of a US Consulate in Lhasa, the capital city of Tibet. Until such an establishment, the bill calls upon the Secretary of State to not authorise any new Chinese consulate in the US.

The Dalai Lama has lived in India since fleeing his homeland in 1959. The Tibetan exile administration is based in Dharamsala.

WITH IANS INPUTS