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SURVEY ON Maulana Tauqeer Raza Statement

September 5, 2024, 2:35 am

78% of people believe that Maulana Tauqeer Raza should be arrested for his provocative statement

Maulana Tauqeer Raza, the President of Ittihad-e-Millat Council, has once again made a controversial statement. He has also made a significant remark about the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), labeling it as a terrorist organization. Maulana Tauqeer Raza has demanded a ban on Bajrang Dal, VHP, and RSS.
Maulana Tauqeer Raza stated that Bajrang Dal, VHP, and RSS should be banned. He further added that if the government truly wants to work with honesty, it must shut down these terrorist organizations.

Here’s the Survey:

India News Survey Date: 4 September 2024	Male: 93%
Survey Name: Maulana Tauqeer Raza Statement	Female: 7%

Q-1 Maulana Tauqeer Raza called RSS, Bajrang Dal, and VHP terrorist organizations. What is your opinion?

A- They are terrorist organizations	22%
B- Maulana is wrong	34%
C- Maulana has an extremist mindset	42%
D- Cannot say	2%

Q-2 Do you think Maulana Tauqeer Raza should be arrested for his provocative statement? What is your opinion?

A- He should be arrested	78%
B- Political conspiracy	22%
C- Cannot say	0%

Q-3 Is Maulana Tauqeer Raza trying to defame the Hindu community with his provocative statement? What is your opinion?

A- Yes	93%
B- No	7%
C- Cannot say	0%

Q-4 What is the real concern for Muslim clerics about the Waqf Bill?

A- Waqf properties will be under control	22%
B- Fear of losing political influence	12%
C- Fear of government action	50%
D- Cannot say	16%

SURVEY ON SP CHIEF’S BULLDOZER REMARK

September 5, 2024, 2:12 am

60% of people think Akhilesh will suffer from his bulldozer statement in Gorakhpur

The debate over the use of bulldozers intensified with Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav taking a jibe at chief minister Yogi Adityanath, saying that the “bulldozer doesn’t have brains, but has a steering, and people might change the steering at any time.”
The war of words began on Tuesday evening when Yadav said that “all the bulldozers will be steered towards Gorakhpur (the hometown of Adityanath) once the SP government is formed in the state.” Adityanath retorted by saying, “Those who were involved in loot before 2017 are daydreaming today.

Here’s the Survey:

India News Survey Date: 4 September 2024 Male	94%
Survey name: SP Chief Bulldozer Remark Female	6%

Q-1 What does Akhilesh Yadav’s statement about the bulldozer turning towards Gorakhpur in 2027 mean?

A – Criticism of Administrative Actions	29%
B – Targeting Chief Minister Yogi	34%
C – Appeasing a Specific Community	31%
D – Can’t Say	6%

Q-2 Will Akhilesh benefit or suffer from his bulldozer statement in Gorakhpur?

A – Benefit	35%
B – Suffer	60%
C – Can’t Say	5%

Q-3 Is the bulldozer action only an attempt to target the opposition?

A – Yes	48%
B – No	50%
C – Can’t Say	2%

Q-4 What is your opinion on the continuous bulldozer actions in Uttar Pradesh?

A – Right Decision	68%
B – Wrong Decision	29%
C – Can’t Say	3%

Survey on PM Modi’s Ukraine Visit

August 22, 2024, 12:39 am

PM Narendra Modi arrived in Poland to begin his two-nation visit, which will also take him to Kyiv, Ukraine. In Kyiv, he will discuss peaceful resolutions to the Ukraine conflict with President Zelenskyy. Modi’s visit to Poland marks the first time in 45 years that an Indian Prime Minister has traveled to the country. During his stay, he will meet President Andrzej Sebastian Duda and engage in bilateral talks.

81% of those surveyed believe that PM Modi will succeed in ending the Russia-Ukraine war.

Here is the survey:

Q-1: Will PM Modi succeed in stopping the Russia-Ukraine war?

Q-2: Why does the world have high hopes for PM Modi to stop the war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict?

Q-3: Will PM Modi’s visit to Poland-Ukraine enhance his influence on the diplomatic stage?

Q-4: Which Prime Minister do you credit for making India a global leader?

Survey on Bharat Bandh

August 22, 2024, 12:19 am

The ‘Bharat Bandh’ organized by pro-quota groups in response to a Supreme Court ruling on sub-classification led to police baton-charging protesters in Bihar and road and rail blockages in various states. Despite these disruptions, normal life remained largely unaffected across the country. The protests were more intense in Dalit and tribal areas. The nationwide strike was initiated by 21 Dalit organizations.

61% of those surveyed reported trouble due to shop closures during the Bharat Bandh.

Here is the survey:

Q-1: Due to the Bharat Bandh, in what way were you troubled today?

Q-2: What punishment should be given to those who engage in violence and vandalism during the Bharat Bandh?

Q-3: What is the biggest loss caused to a country like India due to bandh politics?

Q-4: Should the creamy layer system be implemented in the SC-ST categories?

Survey on Jammu & Kashmir Elections

August 17, 2024, 1:21 am

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election – to be held for the first time since 2014, with the former state under President’s Rule since 2018 – will be held in three phases, on September 18, September 25, and October 1, with results to be announced on October 4, the Election Commission said Friday.

45% of people think that Development and Employment are the biggest issues in this Jammu and Kashmir election.

Q-1: Which party’s government do you want in Jammu and Kashmir?

Q-2: Who is your first choice as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir?

Q-3: What is the biggest issue in this Jammu and Kashmir election?

Q-4: Is Article 370 still an issue in the Jammu and Kashmir elections?

Survey on Crimes Against Women

August 17, 2024, 12:37 am

A semi-nude body of a second-year woman doctor was found in the chest medicine department by officials inside the seminar hall of the hospital on Friday. The post-graduate trainee (PGT) was on duty on Thursday night, while her body bore multiple injury marks like There was bleeding from both her eyes and mouth, injuries over the face and nail. The victim was also bleeding from her private parts.

84% People agree with PM Modi mentioned on the death penalty for heinous crimes like rape and murder.

Here’s the survey:

Q-1: Prime Minister Modi has mentioned the death penalty for heinous crimes like rape and murder. What is your opinion?

Q-2: Do you think political pressure due to caste-based politics affects the severity of punishments for crimes against women?

Q-3: If the victim’s family reached the police station on time will there be a decline in crime against women?

Q-4: What do you think is the biggest obstacle in the investigation and action against crimes against women?

Downside risk to remittance flow to South Asia

June 29, 2024, 4:56 am

While South Asia’s remittance growth outlook for 2024–25 is still well above the forecast for all other regions, significant downside risks point to a slowdown as strong labor market conditions in key migrant destinations stabilize after a peak in 2023. The downside risks hinge on forecasts of subdued GDP growth, persistence of high commodity prices, and risk of a conflict-driven persistence in inflation, especially related to elevated food prices.

Besides external factors, the domestic economy conditions prevailing in South Asia’s three largest recipients—India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, that collectively receive 91 percent of the total remittance flows to South Asia—will play a fundamental role in driving remittance growth. The single most important risk on the downside is from a weak economic recovery from the recent crises in Pakistan and Bangladesh that would motivate migrants to opt for informal over formal money transfer channels, resulting in lower remittance growth.

Remittance growth in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives has also been associated with large-scale emigration of less-skilled economic migrants in the recent past.

This trend is unlikely to continue unabated as South Asian migrants compete for the same jobs as climate-change-affected and economic migrants from other migrant-sending countries. Unbounded and illegal emigration from South Asia is already encountering resistance at the United States’ southern border and in Europe

A close look at Value of Output from farming

June 25, 2024, 4:16 am

The shares of Crop, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sub-sectors in value of output of Agriculture and allied sector were 54.3%, 30.9%, 7.9% and 6.9% respectively in 2022-23.
Two largest groups of crops sub-sector namely ‘cereals’ (27.3%) and ‘fruits and vegetables’ (28.3%) together accounted for more than 55% in 2022-23 in total output of crop sub-sector. As a group, GVO of cereals, at Rs 336.4 thousand crore, was highest among all the crop-groups in 2011-12. However, in 2022-23, GVO (gross value of output) of ‘fruits and vegetables’ was Rs 434.7 thousand crore, about Rs 15 thousand crore higher than that of cereals. Uttar Pradesh exhibits highest value of output of cereals whereas highest value of output of fruits and vegetables is in West Bengal in 2022-23.

The output of ‘livestock’ sub-sector increased steadily from Rs 487.8 thousand crore in 2011-12 to Rs 878.5 thousand crore in 2022-23.

The share of milk, meat and eggs in output of livestock sub-sector was 66.5%, 23.6% and 3.7% respectively in 2022-23. Rajasthan (12.5%) and Uttar Pradesh (12.3%) together accounted for about a quarter of output of livestock sub-sector at constant prices in 2022-23.

The output of fishing and aquaculture sub-sector increased steadily from about Rs 80 thousand crore in 2011-12 to about Rs 195 thousand crore in 2022-23. Andhra Pradesh remained the largest producer of fishing and aquaculture during the period 2015-16 to 2022-23 and, its share in all-India output increased from 17.7% in 2011-12 to almost 40.9% in 2022-23.

Startups Garner $4.1 BN in 1st six months of 2024

June 22, 2024, 3:28 am

India is fourth-highest funded country globally. While 3 unicorns have emerged, there were 17 IPOs during this period.

Indian tech startups raised a total USD 4.1 billion in H1 2024, four per cent higher than H2 2023, although the numbers still trailed the levels seen a year ago, according to a report by market intelligence platform Tracxn.
At USD 4.1 billion, India still remains the fourth-highest funded country globally in the tech startup landscape, it said.

The United States led in overall funding volumes, followed by the UK and China. Neha Singh, Co-Founder of Tracxn, said despite four consecutive half-year periods of declining funding since H1 2022, signs of stabilisation are indeed becoming visible, and on the rise.
“India’s robust performance as the fourth-highest funded country in the tech startup ecosystem is encouraging. From emerging developments in retail and enterprise applications to pioneering advancements in fintech, Indian startups are transforming industries and driving economic growth,” she said.

Rising use of credit cards

June 15, 2024, 3:55 am

Food, beverage, and tobacco spending is within 10-15%, and spending on health and wellness is between 5-10%.

The Reserve Bank of India in its release for February 2024, reveals a notable growth in credit card transactions along with a 34% higher year-on-year figure in volume and a 25% rise in value 7% rise in value.

Interestingly, the outstanding credit card numbers have gained 10-crore figures, taking up to 26% of the population.

The fact that up to 6% of personal loans are a result of credit card transactions shows a crucial connection as well as a rising influence of the financial types of credit in the Indian market.

The escalating trend of credit card expenditure in India highlights a growing reliance on plastic money among the youth, raising questions about its implications for financial freedom and potential debt. In the financial year 2020, credit card spending stood at 7.30 trillion INR. This figure saw a dip to 6.30 trillion INR in 2021, likely influenced by the economic disruptions of the pandemic. However, subsequent years have shown a dramatic increase: 9.71 trillion INR in 2022, 14.30 trillion INR in 2023, and a staggering 18.30 trillion INR so far in 2024. This surge reflects an increasing comfort with credit usage, driven by consumer confidence, the convenience of cashless transactions, and aggressive credit card marketing.

While this trend signals enhanced purchasing power and financial inclusion, it also raises concerns about the risk of accumulating debt, especially among younger demographics who might be enticed by the short-term benefits without fully understanding the long-term financial commitments.

According to the present trends of credit cards among the youth group, there is a variation in their spending pattern across several sectors. Food, beverage, and tobacco spending is within 10-15%, and spending on health and wellness is between 5-10%. On average, groceries comprise their spending between 12 and 17%, while retail shopping constitutes 25 and 30% more. Also, fuel costs contribute to their credit card expenses, which constitute 10-15 percent. These patterns focus on youth and shed light on their importance as being key players in the consumer market.

Analysing the expenditure patterns of credit card holders reveals significant insights into consumer behavior and broader economic trends. With regard to the spending on food and beverages, which constitutes between 10% and 15% of total expenditure, these costs are also considered necessary. This category is further fueled by the need to feed oneself, the rate at which people are turning to eating out due to tight schedules, and the use of takeaway and delivery services. Medical and wellness expenses, which form 5-10% of the total, can be attributed to increased consciousness about disease prevention, self-care, and fitness, as well as higher medical requirements as a result of an aging population. This encompasses expenditures such as medical bills, fitness subscriptions, and wellness products, among others. Grocery expenses make up 12-17% of total spending and reflect people’s focus on necessity purchases and the desire to cook at home. The growth of online groceries also shows a social change of people preferring convenience and the ability to save time. Retail shopping, the biggest expenditure at 25-30%, involves the consumption of goods including clothing, electronics, and household goods. This category is affected by lifestyle and leisure and is found to be relatively higher during sales, holidays, and other occasions. The rise of e-commerce adds more evidence on how digital transformation affects consumer expenditure patterns. Transportation costs, which account for 10-15% of costs, indicate recurring travel needs and vehicle maintenance. This category also illustrates the effects of increasing fuel prices.

Consumers see prices moving up over one year

June 8, 2024, 4:01 am

The Reserve Bank released the results of May 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2024 in 19 major cities, with responses from 5,943 urban households. Female respondents accounted for 52.6 per cent of this sample.

Findings:

l Households’ inflation expectations for the three months and one year ahead periods increased by 20 basis points (bps) and 10 bps, respectively, but remained in single digits; their perception on current inflation, however, moderated by 10 bps and stood at 8.0 per cent in the latest survey round.

l Higher share of respondents expected prices and inflation to rise for all major product groups over the next three months as well as one-year periods.

l At the aggregate level, female respondents had marginally lower inflation assessment and expectations than their male counterparts.

l Among occupation categories, self-employed respondents group expected highest inflation.

l For one year horizon, households’ expectations on general prices remained closely aligned with their assessment related to food prices and housing.

RBI survey: Consumers expect rise in spending over one year

June 8, 2024, 3:58 am

The Reserve Bank has released the results of May 2024 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS). The survey collects current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2024, covering 6,083 respondents. Female respondents accounted for 52.7 per cent of this sample.

Findings:

l Consumer confidence for the current period paused on its uptrend as sentiments on all parameters, except spending, recorded some moderations in the latest survey round; the current situation index (CSI)2 moderated to 97.1 in May 2024 from 98.5 two months ago.

l For the year ahead, consumer confidence remained at elevated level in the optimistic terrain though it declined, albeit marginally, due to relatively tempered sentiments on the general economic situation and employment prospects.

l The future expectations index (FEI) stood at 124.8 in May 2024 (125.2 in the previous survey round).

l Consumers expect higher rise in overall spending over the next one year vis-à-vis the previous survey round; more respondents expect an increase in both essential and non-essential spending.

Climate shocks impart uncertainty to food inflation: RBI

June 3, 2024, 2:54 am

The increasing incidence of climate shocks imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook. Low reservoir levels, especially in the southern states and the outlook of above normal temperatures during the initial months of 2024-25 need close monitoring. The volatility in international crude oil prices, the persisting geopolitical tensions and elevated global financial market volatility also pose upward risk to the inflation trajectory. Taking into account these factors, CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent with risks evenly balanced.

Tobacco kills

June 3, 2024, 2:49 am

World No Tobacco Day 2024 was observed on May 31 . The habit of smoking is highly prevalent in many countries. Latest data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey, says roughly 36 % of urban Indian respondents said they smoke cigarettes at least occasionally.

Temp hits new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions

June 1, 2024, 3:32 am

Most emissions come from just a few countries

The top five emitters (China, the United States of America, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation) accounted for about 60 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021.

The Group of 20 (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union) are responsible for about 76 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions.

By contrast, least developed countries account for about 3.8 per cent of global emissions, while small island developing States contribute less than 1 per cent.

Above Normal rainfall most likely this monsoon: Met Dept

May 28, 2024, 1:31 am

Since 2021, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a new strategy for issuing operational long rangeforecasts on a monthly and seasonal scales for rainfall and temperatures across the country. For this, a newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system is used. The MME system utilizes simulations from the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) sourced from various global climate prediction and research centers, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model.

On 15th April, 2024, the IMD had issued the first-stage forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall, consisting of quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the seasonal (June-September) rainfall.

As part of the second stage forecasts, the IMD has prepared the following forecasts:

1 Updated quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the country.

2. Probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four homogenous regions of India (northwest India, central India, south Peninsula, and northeast India) and the monsoon core zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas of the country.

3. Probabilistic forecast for the June rainfall over the country as a whole and spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the June rainfall over the country.

4. Spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the June Temperatures (Maximum and Minimum) and Outlook for Heatwaves for the month of June over the country.
The updated MME forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon season rainfall has been calculated by incorporating forecasts from different CGCMs based on the May initial conditions. The MME forecast specifically utilizes best few climate models that have the highest forecast skills over the Indian monsoon region, including the IMD’s MMCFS model to prepare an improved and reliable forecast.

Heat Wave over a location refers to a prolonged period of excessively hot weather (above certain threshold temperature value) over the location.

2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Conditions in the equatorial Pacific & Indian Oceans
The strong El Niño conditions over equatorial Pacific observed in early part of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and are currently transitioning into ENSO-neutral conditions. The latest Climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditons are likely to establish during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season.

At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global climate model forecasts indicate these contions to transform into positive IOD conditions during the monsoon season.

3. Second Stage Forecasts for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall

3a. Updated Forecast for the Rainfall over the Country as a whole during Monsoon Season, 2024

Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm.

The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2024 are given below. It suggests highest probability for the above normal rainfall (105-110% of LPA) for the country as a whole. It may be noted that the probability for above normal rainfall category is exactly double of its climatological probability.

3.b. Updated Forecast for the Spatial Distribution of rainfall over the Country during monsoon season, 2024

The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of seasonal rainfall (June to September, 2024) is depicted in Figure 1. The forecast indicates above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many areas of northern part of Northwest India, Northeast India and eastern part of the Central India and adjoining areas of east India where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.There is no signal by the model over the white shaded areas within the land region of the country.

Above-normal rainfall can boost agriculture and water resources but also brings risks of flooding, transportation disruptions, public health issues, and ecosystem damage. To manage these, it is advised to reinforce infrastructure, implement early warnings provided by IMD, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and build suitable response systems in sectors likely to be affected.

3c. Forecast for the Monsoon Rainfall over the four Homogenous regions of the country and Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) during Monsoon Season, 2024
The tercile category forecasts for the four broad homogenous regions and MCZ for the monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall during 2024 are given in the tables below. Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities of 33.33% of LPA each.

4. Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall over the Country during June, 2024
The average June rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (92-108% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).The LPA of the June rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is16.69cm.

The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) for rainfall during June, 2024 is displayed in Figure

2. The above normal monthly rainfall is most likely over most areas of the south
peninsula, and adjoining central India, and over isolated areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern and eastern parts of Northwest India and eastern part of Central India, and some areas over Northeast India and southeastern Peninsula. Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.There is no signal by the model over white shaded areas within the land region of the country.

5. Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperatures over the Country during June, 2024
In June 2024, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of the southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely.

During June 2024, above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except for the extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and Northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely(Fig. 3b).

6. Heat Wave outlook for the Month of June 2024
The anomaly (deviation from the normal) forecast for the number of heatwave days in the country for June 2024 is shown in Fig. 4. During June, 2024, above- normal heatwave days are likely over most parts of Northwest India and adjoining areas of Central India.
During heat waves, vulnerable populations, like the elderly and those with health conditions, face risks of heat-related illnesses. Prolonged extreme heat strains infrastructure and leads to dehydration.

Authorities must act proactively by opening cooling centers, issuing advisories, and reducing urban heat islands. These steps are crucial for protecting public health during heat waves. One has to stay hydrated and remain under optimally cool environment and avoid strenuous activities during peak heat hours to stay safe during heatwaves.

7. Extended Range Forecast and short to medium range forecasting services
IMD also regularly prepares and provides extended range forecasts (7–day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks) for rainfall, maximum temperatures, and minimum temperatures over the country. These forecasts are updated every week on Thursday.

These forecasts are based on the Multi-model Ensemble Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System, which is currently operational at IMD. The forecasts are available through the IMD website

https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php).
The extended range forecast is followed by short to medium range forecasts issued daily based on various very high resolution Global abd Regional Models.

Gold prices pull back modestly after record surge

May 27, 2024, 3:17 am

Gold prices have eased from their peak of mid-April, likely due to profit taking. Nevertheless high gold prices prevailed, ending April up 4% on the back of an 8% rise in March. Since mid-April1 gold prices have moderated 1% and have risen by 15% so far this year, trading at over US$2,350/oz at the time of writing.2 Domestic landed gold prices in India3 have followed the movement of international gold prices owing to the relative stability of the INR vs the US dollar.

Festival alongside price moderation stimulates demand

After a generally weak March and April, there was a resurgence in gold demand ahead of and around the Akshaya Tritiya festival on 10 May. Considered one of the two most important days for buying gold traditionally, anecdotal evidence suggests that demand exceeded expectations, with strong activity observed in both urban and rural areas; some industry participants even hinting at record buying in value terms.

Anecdotal accounts from jewellers and various industry stakeholders suggest that there was significant pre- booking of gold jewellery, bars and coins well before the festival, as consumers took advantage of the moderation in price from its April peak. Additionally, there was notable demand for wedding jewellery – typically heavier pieces – despite the busy wedding season being some months away. Consumers were apparently bringing forward their wedding purchases in anticipation of further price rises in the near future. Demand for bars and coins, particularly among younger age groups, was reportedly robust, reflecting favourable consumer attitudes toward gold as an asset.

Anecdotal reports from jewellers suggest that the value of sales during the festival was appreciably higher compared to the previous year, with healthy volumes. This growth occurred despite the festival lasting longer last year in some regions4 and gold prices being 20% higher, suggesting that consumers likely accepted gold’s higher price and may have a positive view of its trend.

However, the likelihood of the continuation of such demand is low with consumers making purchases around festivals. Overall buying activity is expected to be restrained.

Rising consumer interest was reflected in the reduced discounts on domestic gold prices in relation to international prices. India’s gold price discounts averaged US$3/oz in the first fortnight of May, down from US$10/oz in April.

RBI enhances its gold stockpile

The RBI is consistently bolstering its gold reserves. According to RBI data and our own estimates, its gold holdings reached a new peak of 828.6 tonnes at the beginning of May.6 After adding 5.6t in April,7 RBI has now made a net acquisition of gold bullion equivalent to 25t since the start of the year. On average, the RBI has been purchasing around 6t of gold per month this year. The central bank’s net gold acquisitions in 2024 have already exceeded those of 2023 (16.2t). As of early May, gold comprises 8.5% of total reserves, up from 7.7% at the close of 2023.

The RBI is among major emerging market central banks that have been driving gold purchases in 2024. Having surpassed the whole year purchase of 2023 in the first three months of 2024 itself, the central bank seems to be on track for net gold acquisition reminiscent of levels seen in 2021 (a total of 77.5 tonnes with average monthly buying of 6.5t).

Resurgence in gold imports

Following a significant decline in March, gold imports witnessed a resurgence in April, reaching a value of US$3.1bn, more than twice the amount of the previous month. Import figures for April also marked a three-fold increase from the corresponding period last year.

This is despite record high prices during the month and can be attributed to the stocking up in readiness for Akshaya Tritiya. In volume terms, as per our estimates, gold imports in April likely hovered around 50t, higher than the 34t of gold imports in March and 17t in April23.

(Source: World Gold Council)

How much of India’s wastewater is left untreated?

May 25, 2024, 4:58 am

As is the case with rapid population growth and urbanization in many so-called developing nations, waste management becomes a problem not only in rural areas but also in densely populated cities. A textbook example of this growth outpacing infrastructural capacities is the situation in urban hotspots in India like Delhi, where a report by Euronews from May 2023 mentions neighborhoods with “open gutters […] filled with plastic and grey-colored water”. While the number of operational sewage treatment plants doubled between 2014 and 2020, the capacity for water treatment is still severely lacking.

According to the latest annual report by the Central Pollution Control Board, India generated 72.4 billion liters of wastewater per day across all provinces, with Maharashtra (9.1 billion), Uttar Pradesh (8.3 billion), Tamil Nadu (6.4 billion) and Gujarat (5.0 billion) being responsible for around 40 percent of wastewater.

The 1,093 sewage treatment plants only had operational capacities of 26.9 billion liters of wastewater per day, with around 400 plants either non-operational or under construction as of the latest available tally from 2020/2021. This translates to only 37 percent of sewage being treated, exacerbating the risks of communicable diseases and contaminated food and drinking water.

While India is seemingly hard-pressed to keep up with the amount of wastewater its population generates, measures to grant more people access to potable water and basic sanitation and hygiene were scaled up significantly in recent decades. For example, the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan campaign, translatable to Clean India, initiated in 2014 aims to eliminate open defecation by installing upwards of 100 million toilets in the country.

Nevertheless, in 2022, only 75 percent of rural Indian households had at least basic access to sanitation, while 30 percent of homes didn’t have their own washing facility with soap and water according to data from the WHO and Unicef’s Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene.
statista.com

India’s global Travel & Tourism index rank up at 39th: WEF

May 25, 2024, 4:54 am

India was ranked 54th in the previously published index in 2021, though changes made to the index parameters limit its comparability to earlier years.

India’s rank on the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024 has risen to 39th place, with global tourism activities returning to pre-pandemic levels, the annual report showed on Tuesday.

While the US topped the list, India is ranked highest in South Asia and among the lower-middle-income economies, the WEF said.

India was ranked 54th in the previously published index in 2021, though changes made to the index parameters limit its comparability to earlier years.

After the US, Spain, Japan, France and Australia figure among the top five in the 2024 list.
The index, prepared in collaboration with the University of Surrey, showed India is highly price-competitive (18th) and boasts competitive Air Transport (26th) and Ground and Port (25th) infrastructure.

In particular, India’s strong Natural (6th), Cultural (9th) and Non-Leisure (9th) Resources help drive travel, and the country is only one of three to score in the top 10 for all the resource pillars, the WEF said.

Moreover, despite a decline compared to 2019, the country still scores well for travel and tourism demand sustainability, especially thanks to more sustainable long stays among inbound visitors.

It further said that as with many economies, travel and tourism enabling conditions in India have been impacted by global inflationary supply-side trends for the sector, with price competitiveness declining, while air transport and tourist services infrastructure are yet to recover to the 2019 level.

As a result, the country’s overall TTDI (Travel and Tourism Development Index) score is 2.1 per cent below its 2019 level.

High-income economies in Europe and Asia-Pacific continued to lead the index.

“International tourist arrivals and the travel and tourism sector’s contribution to global GDP are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, driven by the lifting of COVID-19-related travel restrictions and strong pent-up demand,” the WEF said.

The Middle East had the highest recovery rates in international tourist arrivals (20 per cent above the 2019 level), while Europe, Africa and the Americas all showed a strong recovery of around 90 per cent in 2023.

The biennial index analysed the travel and tourism sectors of 119 countries around a range of factors and policies.

Germany was ranked 6th, followed by the UK, China, Italy and Switzerland in the top ten. The results highlighted that high-income economies generally continue to have more favourable conditions for travel and tourism development.

This was helped by conducive business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure, and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions.

84% of Indian small businesses expect robust growth in 2024: Study

May 21, 2024, 4:56 am

A recent Certified Practising Accountant (CPA) Australia survey reveals an overwhelming optimism among Indian small businesses, with 84 per cent anticipating continued growth in 2024, significantly surpassing the market average of 70 per cent.

Despite global economic uncertainties, 80 per cent of Indian respondents remain confident about the local economy’s prospects for 2024, well above the survey average of 65 per cent.

This buoyant outlook has been on an upward trajectory since 2022, highlighting the resilience and dynamism of India’s small business sector.

CPA Australia survey showed a rise in the growth rate of Indian small businesses from 73 per cent in 2022 to 77 per cent in 2023–the highest since 2019.

Indian small businesses are riding a wave of optimism and growth, according to CPA Australia’s latest annual Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey.

The survey reveals that over three-quarters of Indian small businesses reported growth in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and making India’s small business sector one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing in the Asia-Pacific region.

Prafulla Chhajed, a CPA member of CPA Australia in India, emphasized the critical role of Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) in driving India’s economic success.

Chhajed said, “Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are making a significant contribution to India’s economic success. Not only is India’s rapid economic growth and improving business environment boosting their confidence, support from the government ranging from digitalisation to access to funds, is assisting businesses to recover from the pandemic.”

He further said, “India’s small businesses are enthusiastically improving their performance through innovation, adopting technologies, and building connections with overseas markets. ‘Good staff’ was nominated as the top positive factor that benefited India small business performance in 2023. It explains why Indian respondents have been so willing to add new employees over the past two years”.

“This year the pace in jobs creation by small businesses is expected to slow, although remain high in comparison to other markets. This is most likely due to a combination of factors including increasing levels of automation and rising labour costs,” he added.

However, Chhajed cautioned that the pace of job creation might slow down due to rising automation and labor costs, though it will still remain high compared to other markets.

The survey highlighted several challenges faced by Indian small businesses, including increasing costs, competition, and cashflow difficulties.

Staff and material costs were particularly detrimental in 2023, rising slightly from the previous year. To cope with these expenses and support growth, 68 per cent of small businesses sought external funding last year, though this figure dropped 20 percentage points from 2022. This year, 81 per cent plan to seek finance, despite tougher financing conditions.

Only 42 per cent of respondents found it easy to secure funds in 2023, a sharp decline from 69 per cent in 2022. This trend is expected to continue, with just 43 per cent anticipating ease in accessing funds this year, down from 64 per cent previously.

“Difficulty in accessing finance is a common challenge for small businesses worldwide. Though government loans like Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY) helps to foster entrepreneurship by offering financial support, MSMEs should not solely rely on borrowing to fund their long-term development, particularly in a high-interest rate environment”, Chhajed explained.

A significant number of Indian small businesses focused on managing costs and cash flow last year. Among the technologies they invested in, accounting software was particularly popular, with 23 per cent adoption.

Professional advice was also sought frequently, with 34 per cent consulting accountants and 38 per cent seeking advice from friends and family.

“Indian MSMEs are very competitive in many areas such as digitalisation and innovation, now they should focus on cost management and cashflow to increase their financial return.

It’s wise to use accounting software to control cost and analyse financial performance regularly. Further, financial experts like qualified accountants may provide professional advice to small businesses to manage technical issues like taxation and improve financial performance”, Chhajed suggested.

Indian small businesses also show a strong inclination towards innovation and global expansion. Leading the 11 surveyed markets, 34 per cent of respondents expect substantial revenue growth from overseas markets this year, significantly higher than the survey average of 19 per cent.

Additionally, 44 per cent plan to introduce new products or services, compared to the market average of 29 per cent.

Chhajed said, “The Indian government has established good platforms to bolster our MSMEs’ global expansion, for example, international trade fairs for MSMEs.

He added, “They could leverage these opportunities to connect with overseas customers and promote their novel products globally. Besides, our thriving digital economy also fosters MSMEs’ innovation and revolution in the digital era.”

The survey gathered insights from 4,222 small businesses across 11 Asia-Pacific markets, including 505 respondents from India, providing a comprehensive overview of the region’s small business landscape.

8 of 10 business leaders globally adopting AI for growth: Study

May 20, 2024, 2:02 am

More than eight out of 10 senior business leaders have already deployed artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance existing revenue streams or create new ones, a new study by Tata Consultancy Services, a global leader in IT services, found recently.

The ‘TCS AI for Business Study’, a report on the state of AI adoption and its impact on businesses, also found that 69 per cent of businesses are more focused on using AI to spur innovation and increase revenue than on productivity improvement and cost optimization.

The study found that executives are generally positive about the impact of AI, with 57 per cent reporting excitement or optimism about the potential impact of AI on businesses.

Among respondents in the study, 45 per cent expect up to half their employees will need to use generative AI capabilities to do their job in three years’ time — and another 41 per cent think even more will do so.

Most, at 65 per cent, believe AI will augment and enhance human capabilities, enabling people to focus on higher-value activities that require creativity and strategic thinking.

Harrick Vin, Chief Technology Officer, TCS, said, “2023 was a year of exuberance, with every enterprise experimenting with AI/GenAI use cases.”

Enterprises are realizing that the path to production for AI solutions is not easy, and that building an AI-mature enterprise is a marathon, not a sprint, said the CTO.

The survey also highlights the need for businesses to take a strategic approach to AI adoption and develop the right performance indicators to measure the impact of the technology on their businesses.

TCS itself was one of the first organisations in the industry to bring together the capabilities of cloud computing and artificial intelligence under the AI.Cloud unit to cater to the emerging needs of customers.

TCS surveyed nearly 1,300 CEOs and other senior executives with profit and loss responsibilities, across 12 industries and 24 countries. About half the companies had USD 1 billion to USD 5 billion in annual revenue and the other half had over USD 5 billion in revenue.

During the study, it was found that 65 per cent of senior executives say their competitive advantage will still come from humans — with their creativity, intuition, and strategic thinking unleashed by AI’s augment and assist capabilities.

World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024

May 18, 2024, 4:19 am

The global economic outlook has improved since January, with major economies avoiding a severe downturn, according to World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released by the UN.

The world economy is now projected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024, instead of 2.4 per cent forecasted earlier, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the United States economy and some improvement in the outlook for several large emerging economies. The modest gain in the growth momentum is partly offset by the downward revisions of the growth outlook for the European Union, Africa, and Western Asia. On balance, the near-term economic outlook is only cautiously optimistic as economic vulnerabilities remain, amid persistently high interest rates, continuing geopolitical tensions, and increasing climate risks.

The world economy is also grappling with challenges to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions. Technological breakthroughs – especially in renewables and batteries, requiring extraction, processing and use of critical minerals – has opened up new opportunities for boosting economic growth and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially in mineral-rich developing economies. Taking advantage of such opportunities and avoiding a renewed “resource curse” will require sound national policies and effective implementation capacities.

These countries cannot do it alone. An enabling international environment and stronger international cooperation will be essential to harness the potential of critical mineral resources and accelerate progress towards sustainable development.

Global overview

The global economic outlook has improved since the previous forecast released in January 2024.

Despite the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades, a scenario of hard landing of the United States economy has largely receded. Most major economies have managed to bring down inflation without increasing unemployment and triggering a recession. However, the outlook is only cautiously optimistic as higher-for-longer interest rates, debt difficulties, and escalating geopolitical risks will continue to challenge stable and sustained economic growth. Ever-worsening climate shocks continue to pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, threatening decades of development gains, especially for least developed countries and small islands developing States.

The breakneck pace of technological change – including in machine learning and artificial intelligence – presents new opportunities and risks to the global economy, promising to boost productivity and advance knowledge on the one hand, while exacerbating technological divides and reshaping labor markets on the other.

The world economy is now forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024 (an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in January) and 2.8 per cent in 2025 (an increase of 0.1 percentage points). The upward revisions mainly reflect improved prospects in the United States of America and several large developing economies, notably India and Brazil. However, the economic outlook for many African countries has deteriorated since the last release. On average, global growth in the coming years is expected to remain below the average of 3.2 per cent during 2010-2019.

Recent high-frequency data indicate improving trade performance since the last quarter of 2023. In February, the global Purchasing Managers’ Index moved to the expansionary zone for the first time since August 2022.

Monetary and fiscal policies: trends and challenges

Monetary policy

In the first quarter of 2024, the majority of central banks maintained their policy rates unchanged, closely watching the policy decisions of the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Despite expectations for both central banks to pivot to interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the timing and magnitude of monetary easing remain uncertain as inflation remains above the central bank targets. Government bond yields in the United States and the euro area trended upward recently as quantitative tightening measures increased bond supplies to the markets. The central banks that peg their currencies to the United States dollar are expected to closely follow the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The European Central Bank’s policy shift will affect the Central African Economic and Monetary Community and the West African Economic and Monetary Union.

Deviating from the predominant “wait and see” monetary policy stances, central banks in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czechia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Paraguay, Peru, Republic of Moldova, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and Ukraine implemented additional rate cuts in the first quarter of 2024 after initiating monetary easing in 2023. In addition, central banks in Argentina, Ghana, Israel, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, and Switzerland pivoted to the easing phase during the first quarter of 2024. After lowering the five-year loan prime rate and the reserve requirement ratio in the first quarter of 2024, the People’s Bank of China is expected to maintain an accommodative stance.

In contrast, central banks in Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Turkey, Uganda, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), and Zambia continued monetary tightening with additional policy interest rate hikes during the first quarter of 2024. Tight external financing conditions and balance-of-payments constraints increased depreciation pressures, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy to defend the value of the national currencies. The Bank of Japan has signaled the possibility of further interest rate hikes after abandoning the negative policy rate regime in March 2024 to stabilize the Japanese yen, which has constantly been under pressure during the past year.

Fiscal policy

The COVID-19 pandemic and global energy and food crises stretched the limits of public finances across all country groups, exacerbating fiscal pressures and debt challenges in many economies. In the aftermath of these shocks, high levels of public debt, rising interest costs and subdued economic growth constrained fiscal space. At the same time, public spending pressures continued to increase. Aging populations are pushing up pension, healthcare, and long-term care costs, while governments are facing growing demands to increase policy support for high-tech industries, climate adaptation, and green energy transition. In addition, ongoing military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and rising geopolitical tensions worldwide, have prompted many countries to increase defense spending. This trend is likely to continue, and may even accelerate, in the coming years, potentially crowding out public investments in sustainable development.

The general government debt-to-GDP ratio globally stood at an estimated 94.4 per cent in 2023. While this rate is slightly below the 2020 peak, it is 11 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and 35 percentage points higher than before the global financial crisis in 2007. With interest rates expected to stay higher for longer, especially in the United States, the costs of servicing government debt will remain a challenge, absorbing a growing share of fiscal revenues in many developing countries and diverting public funds away from health, education, social protection, and sustainable infrastructure.

In 2024, governments in Africa are projected to spend on average more than a quarter of total public revenues on interest payments. Debt service burdens are particularly high in several large economies, most notably Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia. Interest payments are also projected to further increase from an already high level in the SIDS, reaching 15.9 per cent of revenues in 2024. By contrast, the share of interest expenditures in government revenues remains low in most developed economies and economies in transition, except for the United States, where net interest costs are estimated to reach about 10 per cent of government revenues in 2024.

Against this backdrop, most countries are projected to gradually tighten fiscal outlays in 2024-25 to improve debt sustainability and rebuild fiscal buffers. In 2024, 31 out of 37 developed economies are projected to see an increase in the general government cyclically adjusted primary balance, implying a tightening of the fiscal stance. In the United States, fiscal policy is expected to be roughly neutral over the next few years, after providing moderate support to growth in 2023. The European Union recently adopted reform of the fiscal governance framework, aiming to provide more flexibility in reducing deficits and giving more ownership to member States. Many developing country governments are pursuing gradual fiscal consolidation after phasing out support measures to fight the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis. In Africa, governments are generally aiming to maintain a tight fiscal stance as countries are struggling with large public debt burdens and large fiscal deficits, ranging from an estimated 4.6 per cent of GDP in Egypt to 6.4 per cent in South Africa and 8.6 per cent in Algeria. In China, the government is expected to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth in 2024, including significant new spending on science and technology, new infrastructure, and low-carbon transition.

India’s government remains committed to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit, while seeking to increase capital investment. In Latin America and the Caribbean, most countries have also embarked on fiscal consolidation, aiming to improve debt sustainability through better-targeted and more efficient spending.

Retail inflation eases to an 11-month low of 4.83% in April

May 14, 2024, 3:37 am

Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023. The previous low inflation was at 4.31 per cent in May 2023.

The inflation in the food basket was at 8.70 per cent in April, marginally up from 8.52 per cent in March, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO).

Inflation in egg, meat, spices, and ‘cereals and products’ was lower in April, while fruits, vegetables, and pulses were expensive.

The index for ‘fuel and light’ in the CPI declined to 4.24 per cent in April on a yearly basis.

The government has tasked the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side.

According to the RBI, which factors in consumer inflation while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, food price uncertainties continue to weigh on the inflation trajectory going forward.

The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for 2024-25 at 4.5 per cent with the first quarter at 4.9 per cent; second at 3.8 per cent; third at 4.6 per cent; and the forth at 4.5 per cent.

The NSO data further revealed that inflation in urban areas was lower than the national average of 4.11 per cent and higher in rural India at 5.43 per cent.

The highest inflation was witnessed in Odisha at 7.11 per cent and lower in Delhi at 2.17 per cent.

States recording higher inflation than the national average were Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, and Madhya Pradesh.

Commenting on the CPI data, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said the moderation in inflation was led by a larger deflation in fuel and light segments, and softer prints for the clothing and footwear, and pan, tobacco and intoxicants groups.

Inflation in the vegetables and pulses categories remained in double-digits for the sixth and eleventh consecutive month, respectively, thereby contributing to the elevated food and beverages print, she added.

“The impending favourable base effects during Q2 FY25 are expected to materially soften the headline inflation print to 2-4 per cent in July 2024 and August 2024. Nevertheless, a timely onset and good distribution of monsoon would be crucial to support agriculture output in 2024-25 and help control food inflation,” Nayar said.

CRISIL Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi said the mild easing of the headline number in April is encouraging, but acceleration of this downtrend is what matters, especially since recent swings have been worrying.

“Our base case is that the upcoming monsoon can offer respite, assuming they are well distributed in terms of time and geography. Fuel and light, with a 6.8 per cent weight in the CPI gauge, has been reducing the pressure on the headline for eight months led by retail fuel price relaxations by the government,” he said.

But if crude oil prices rise substantially and stay elevated in wake of geopolitical stress, the gains to inflation could be reversed, Joshi said. ‘

With continued uncertainty, especially on the risks to the food inflation trajectory after the September quarter of FY25, the chance of a stance change in the upcoming June monetary policy review by the RBI appears rather dim, she said.

NSO collects the the price data from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering all states/UTs on a weekly roster.