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Harris vs. Trump: Polls Reveal Who’s Leading the US Presidential Race Ahead of the Debate

September 11, 2024, 5:57 am

As the first Presidential Debate between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump looms, recent polls reveal a closely contested race. With Election Day set for November 5, the competition for the White House is intense, and the debate could prove pivotal.

Originally anticipated as a rematch of the 2020 election, the dynamics shifted significantly when President Joe Biden withdrew from the race in July and endorsed Harris. This move altered the landscape, with Harris now competing directly against Trump for the presidency.

The central question is whether Trump will secure a second term or if Harris will make history as the first female president of the United States. Tonight’s debate will be a critical moment as both candidates seek to sway undecided voters and consolidate their support.

Polling Insights

Recent polls highlight the tight nature of the race:

New York Times/Siena College Poll: The latest survey from the New York Times and Siena College shows Trump leading Harris by a narrow margin of 48% to 47%. Conducted between September 3 and September 6 with 1,695 registered voters, this poll has a margin of error of ±2.8 percentage points, indicating that the race is essentially too close to call. Additionally, the poll suggests that many voters are still unfamiliar with Harris, with 28% seeking more information about her compared to just 9% for Trump.
Washington Post Poll: According to the Washington Post, Harris is currently leading in three crucial battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Trump holds a slight lead in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. This poll integrates both state and national surveys and considers previous presidential election results to gauge voter preferences.
Emerson College Poll: Emerson College’s poll indicates a tight race with Harris leading Trump 49% to 47%. The poll shows 3% of voters are undecided, and 1% prefer a different candidate.
Morning Consult Poll: A daily survey from Morning Consult shows Harris slightly ahead of Trump, with a 49% to 46% lead.
FiveThirtyEight Poll: FiveThirtyEight’s latest national poll reveals Harris leading Trump by a narrow margin of 47.1% to 44.3%.
YouGov Poll: YouGov’s survey shows Harris with a slight edge over Trump in Michigan (50% to 49%) and Wisconsin (51% to 49%). However, the two candidates are tied in Pennsylvania.

Swing States Analysis

Trump previously won Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin in 2016, but these states reverted to blue in 2020 with Biden’s victory. Harris’s performance in these key states will be crucial to her success. On the day Biden withdrew, he was trailing Trump in these battlegrounds by nearly five percentage points, underscoring how the race has evolved with Harris as the Democratic nominee.

Trusting the Polls

At present, polls show a tight race both nationally and in crucial swing states. With such a close contest, predicting the outcome is challenging. Historically, polls have underestimated Trump’s support in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. Polling firms are working to improve their accuracy by better representing voter demographics and adjusting methodologies to reflect current trends.

As the debate approaches, all eyes will be on how Harris and Trump perform under the spotlight and how their arguments resonate with voters in these final critical weeks leading up to the election.

Maharashtra Polls: Thackeray pushes for bigger pie in seat-sharing with allies

July 18, 2024, 11:25 pm

Maharashtra politics is now slowly moving towards a change. The effect of this change is visible in both Mahavikas Aghadi and NDA. Uddhav Thackeray, the main constituent of Mahavikas Aghadi, has started playing the politics of pressure directly. He has made it clear to Congress and NCP that he will contest the elections again on the same number of seats on which he contested in 2019.

If this does not happen then he will field his candidates on all 288 seats. Thackeray’s Shiv Sena has also started preparations to contest elections on all seats. Thackeray has already given instructions to his allies two-three times. Actually, Thackeray’s Shiv Sena is upset with the results of the Lok Sabha elections because they got less seats than they expected.
Thackeray’s UBT contested on 22 seats but won only on 9. Congress was the biggest gainer. It contested on 17 seats and won on 13. NCP Pawar contested on 9 and won on 7.

This is where the problem started. After winning more seats, Congress wants to be seen as the big brother. Two-three rounds of meetings have been held regarding seat sharing. Congress itself claims that it contested on 155 seats in 2019, so this time too it would like to contest on a maximum of 125 to 130 seats. In this way, the remaining seats out of 288 will be divided between Pawar and Thackeray’s party. In a way, the calculation is being made for 85 and 70. Thackeray is not ready for this at all. Thackeray’s party decided that it wanted the same number of seats as it contested on 124 seats in the 2019 assembly elections. This means that Congress will have to come second. It does not seem that Congress will agree to this easily. If sources are to be believed, a formula has also emerged that all three parties will contest on equal number of seats. In a way, every party will contest on 90 to 92 seats.

The fight is not only about seats but also about who will be the face. Sharad Pawar has said twice that he also wants to become CM once again. Thackeray’s party is worried that what will happen if after the elections NCP and Congress come together and make Sharad Pawar the CM. Pawar has met twice with his nephew Ajit Pawar who has joined NDA. If experts are to be believed, Pawar can bring him back with him. If Ajit Pawar comes back, NCP will become stronger. Thackeray is doing politics of pressure so that he can be projected as the Chief Minister before the elections. Congress and Pawar’s NCP do not seem to be in this mood right now. The Lok Sabha election results have boosted the morale of all three parties, it remains to be seen who will bow down. In such a situation, the politics of Maharashtra is going to be interesting in the coming days.

French PM Gabriel Attal Offers Resignation After His Party Couldn’t Win Majority in Polls

July 8, 2024, 6:22 am

French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced on Sunday that he will submit his resignation to President Emmanuel Macron on Monday morning, stating that he will continue to perform his duties as long as needed.

Attal’s comments came after France’s left-wing New Popular Front coalition won the most seats in the second round of parliamentary elections. Pollsters indicated that the coalition is on track for an unexpected win over the far-right National Rally (RN) party, although it falls short of an absolute majority in parliament.

Himachal Pradesh assembly to organise ‘Bal Satra’ on 12 June

June 1, 2023, 4:55 pm

The Himachal Pradesh Assembly has announced that it will host a “Bal Satra” event on 12 June. To commemorate World Child Labour Day, the assembly will organize a Digital Bal Mela where 68 children from various parts of the country will voice their opinions on political and social matters within the state assembly.

This information was shared by officials during a press conference held in Shimla on Thursday. Speaker Kuldeep Singh Pathani stated that these children were elected as part of a campaign led by the State Education Department. Entries were received from 9 states, including Himachal Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat, Assam, and Bihar, between 1 April and 25 May.

The participants in the session will be children under the age of 17, and the selection process is currently ongoing. The judging panel, organized by Digital BAL Mela, evaluated the children based on their suggestions and the significance of the issues they raised. The selection process consists of three stages.

In the first stage, 585 children who met the video criteria were chosen. In the second phase, 285 children were selected based on their expressions. Currently, the third and final phase is underway, where 68 children are being selected based on the importance of their raised issues and the need for suggestions.

The results of this phase will be announced soon. Notable participants, including Arunoday from the popular show KBC, shared their perspectives on the current political landscape and how politicians and governments should operate during this period.

‘Manifestation of mental level’: Nadda’s take on Congress manifesto

May 3, 2023, 6:10 pm

On Wednesday, BJP President JP Nadda alleged that Congress has been putting obstacles in the path of the state’s development, adding that the manifesto of the grand old party for the upcoming 10 May Karnataka Assembly polls is the “manifestation of their mental level”.

Nadda launched a strong critique of the Congress manifesto that was recently made public. He stated, “Their manifesto is a reflection of their level of thinking.

Today, people are standing against the rule of dynasties and are yearning for progress. Therefore, the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has taken the lead.” This critical comment was made in response to the Congress’ release of their manifesto for the upcoming Karnataka elections, in which they promised various initiatives such as ‘Gruha Jyoti’, ‘Gruha Lakshmi,’ and ‘Anna Bhagya’.

They also allegedly compared Bajrang Dal and PFI and declared that they will take strong legal action, including banning any groups that promote hostility and animosity.

PM Modi seeks blessings of Padma awardees Tulsi Gowda and Sukri Bommagowda

May 3, 2023, 5:52 pm

On Wednesday, during his recent visit to Karnataka, where elections are imminent, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met Tulsi Gowda and Sukri Bommagowda, both of whom are recipients of the Padma Shri award.

The meeting took place in Ankola, before a public address by the Prime Minister in Uttara Kannada district. PM Modi sought their blessings during the meeting. Tulsi Gowda, an environmentalist hailing from Honnali village in Karnataka, was honored with the Padma Shri award in 2021.

She is renowned for planting over 30,000 saplings and nurturing forest department nurseries. Due to her extensive knowledge of various plant and herb species, she is also known as the “Encyclopedia of Forests”. Sukri Bommagowda, who is widely referred to as the nightingale of the Halakki Vokkaliga tribes, was awarded the Padma Shri in 2017 for her folk singing.

MCD mayoral polls to be held on 26 April

April 12, 2023, 6:40 pm

A meeting of the Municipal Corporation of Delhi (MCD) will be held on April 26 at 11 a.m. to elect the mayor and deputy mayor, according to an official MCD notice.
Earlier on April 9, AAP Minister Saurabh Bharadwaj said that Mayor Shelly Oberoi had set the date of 26 April for the mayoral polls.
AAP leader Shelly Oberoi completed her 38-day tenure at the mayor’s post on 31st Marc.

As per the norms, the election process needs to be completed before 30 April. Earlier this year, following much squabbling between the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Aam Aadmi Party, Shelly Oberoi was elected mayor of Delhi on her fourth attempt.

The last three attempts to elect the mayor failed due to the political bickering between the Aam Aadmi Party and Bharatiya Janata Party. They met for the first time on January 6, again on January 24, and lastly on February 6.

CM Biswa slams Kharge’s tea remarks

November 28, 2022, 7:03 pm

Himanta Biswa Sarma, the chief minister of Assam, stated on Monday that dogs are valued more highly in the Congress party than people.

Sarma responded to Mallikarjun Kharge’s tea remark. Kharge sparked a debate earlier on Sunday with his remark about Prime Minister Narendra Modi. When speaking to a crowd during a public gathering in Dediapada, Gujarat’s tribal-dominated Narmada district, Kharge said, “A person like you (PM Modi) claims to be poor. I am also poor, I am one of the untouchables. People drank your tea, nobody would’ve had my tea.”
“Then you say that you are poor, and somebody abuses you. If you say it for sympathy, then people have become smarter now. If you lie once or twice, people will hear it, but how many times will you lie? He’s the leader of lies..,” Kharge added.
Earlier on Monday, Sarma told ANI, “Mallikarjun Kharge said, no one has tea with me. So maybe Rahul Gandhi doesn’t have tea with Kharge ji and Congress follows such practices. Congress MP Rahul Gandhi should tweet a backdated picture in which he could be seen having tea with Mallikarjun Kharge.”
“What I feel is that dogs have a higher value in the Congress party in comparison to humans. So Mallikarjun Kharge’s comment that no one has tea with me may be partially correct,” Sarma added.

In Ahmedabad, the state’s capital and an election-bound state, Sarma spoke at a press conference.

The BJP has traditionally considered Gujarat to be a bastion, and the party has set its eyes on winning a seventh term in office.

The BJP won 99 out of the total 182 seats in the 2017 Assembly elections. For the past 27 years, the party has controlled the state.

The AAP, which recently swept to power in Punjab, will present it with a tough electoral battle as it looks to establish a significant political presence there.

The Congress also aspires to defeat the BJP by running the strongest campaign possible.

On December 8, the votes for Gujarat will be tallied.

Gujarat polls: UP CM Yogi Adityanath on Gujarat tour for third time in a week

November 23, 2022, 11:57 am

Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath is scheduled to visit Gujarat for third time this week.
CM Yogi will hold elections meetings for the candidates during his third Gujarat tour for the candidates of the Bhartiya Janata Party (BJP) in Dwarka, Kutch, Morbi and Surat districts. A roadshow will be conducted in Surat by CM Yogi and he will worship in the Dwarkadhish temple.
CM Adityanath departed from the Amausi airport in Lucknow at 9.20 am and would fly to Jamnagar Airport to travel to Dwarka by 11.45 am. The UP CM will address a public gathering in Dwarka for 30 minutes at Satwara Bhuvan Wadi Dwarka and then leave for the Dwarkadhish temple at 12.40.
After leaving Dwarka, CM Yogi will reach Rapad Kutch in Gujarat and will hold a party election meeting in this assembly.
His next destination will be Halwad in the Morbi district to conduct a public meeting at Dharrangdhara. This meeting will be followed by a roadshow from Umiya Dham Temple, Surat in Varchha Assembly and then he will head to Lucknow from the Surat airport.
One of the top BJP campaigners for the forthcoming Gujarat Assembly elections, which are scheduled to take place on December 1 and December 5, is Adityanath.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Union Home Minister Amit Shah, and outgoing Chief Minister Bhupendra Patel are among the other prominent BJP campaigners in Gujarat.
There will be voting in Gujarat for a total of 182 Assembly seats.
The BJP wants to retake control of the state with a sizable majority after holding it for more than 20 years.
But after its remarkable Assembly election victory in Punjab, the Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) has entered the race in an effort to broaden its national influence.
Party leader Kejriwal and Punjab Chief Minister Bhagwant Mann have been the featured speakers at rallies and road shows in the state that is going to the polls.
Isudan Gadhvi, a member of the party’s top governing body, the National Executive, has already been named as its candidate for chief minister in the western state.
The BJP government is being challenged by Congress, which is also trying to win the state and is putting its best electoral foot forward.

Congress promises jobs for youth, free power in Himachal manifesto

November 5, 2022, 1:58 pm

In advance of the Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, the Congress announced its manifesto on Saturday at its Shimla headquarters. Ten commitments have been made to the people of the state by the grand old party, including the provision of jobs for young people, 300 free power units, and monthly compensation for women.

Addressing a press conference, the president of the party’s manifesto committee – Dhani Ram Shandil – said that the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has made the lives of people difficult.

“Himachal’s public voted for the BJP in the last assembly elections. And five years later, the public is feeling cheated,” Shandil said. He insisted out that Congress has been fulfilling all its poll promises.

The following are a few of the 10 poll guarantees offered by the Congress in Himachal Pradesh:

> Old pension scheme will be revived.

> Employment opportunities for 5 lakh youth.

> Himachal’s women will receive a compensation of ₹1,500 per month.

> 300 units of free electricity in Himachal Pradesh

> A start-up fund of ₹680 crore for the youth.

> Four English medium schools will open in every legislative assembly region of Himachal.

> Free medical treatment in every village through mobile clinics.

> Cow dung cakes will be purchased at ₹2 per kilogram.

During Saturday’s press conference, Dhani Ram Shandil also said that this is not just a manifesto but a document created according to the history and culture of Himachal Pradesh. “The Congress will continue to fulfil its promises. We only need the public’s support and trust,” Shandil added.

Pilot urges working together to keep Congress in Power in Rajasthan

October 11, 2022, 1:35 pm

Sachin Pilot, the former deputy chief minister, said the Congress won the state of Rajasthan in 2018 under his leadership. He thanked the hard work of the party’s workers while stressing the importance of working together to retain power when the state is set for the polls next year.

“Our goal is to retain power in the 2023 assembly polls, and we are all collectively working in this direction,” he told journalists in Kota on Monday.

Pilot, who later arrived in former chief minister Vasundhara Raje’s constituency of Jhalawar, said they won the last election because of the farmers, youths, and poor. “It is our collective responsibility to fulfil the expectations of workers and the public.”

The remarks highlighting the necessity of teamwork came days after the Congress was rocked by members loyal to Ashok Gehlot’s threat to topple the government unless he gets to choose his successor.

Numerous Congress members who were thought to be close to Gehlot gathered at minister Shanti Dhariwal’s house in a show of strength and threatened to resign. They claimed that the 102 legislators who backed Gehlot when his former deputy Pilot rebelled against him in 2020 should produce the new chief minister. It is generally accepted that Pilot had a guarantee from the Congress’s high leadership that he would be the successor of Gehlot.

The Congress Legislative Party gathering was likely to accept a one-line resolution that would have given the party president the power to choose the new chief minister, but the legislators were against it.

Gehlot decided not to participate in the election for the presidency of the Congress on October 17 due to the uproar. According to the one-man, one-post norm of the Congress, he was expected to step down from his position as chief minister and run in the election.

Congress leaders familiar with the matter said Pilot has begun touring the state as part of the poll preparations. They added that his visits to Kota, Jhalawar, and Jhalrapatan were seen as an attempt to boost the morale of his supporters.

Raje separately hit out at the state government and said the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) will return to power by winning over 163 of the 200 assembly seats. She added that the state was lagging behind in development and that Congress leaders were preoccupied with becoming chief minister.

The BJP got 120 seats in 2003 and 163 seats in 2013. If we unitedly work, then we will cross 163 seats,” she told a gathering at Bikaner. She said there is a lot of resentment against the government. “Do not get divided into castes. A historical win is certain if we fight unitedly.” She said the Gehlot government has failed on all fronts. “Under his leadership, the state is number one in atrocities against women, corruption, inflation, diesel, petrol prices, expensive electricity, and paper leaks.”