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How Pakistan’s Farms and Dams Are Suffering After Indus Waters Treaty Halt

June 20, 2025, 5:42 pm

Pakistan is facing an escalating water crisis as the effects of India’s suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) start showing. The treaty was suspended after the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack, during which 26 lives were lost. In retaliation, India called upon Pakistan to take “credible and irrevocable” steps to prevent cross-border terrorism.

India’s Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri made the statement that the IWT would not resume until such steps are undertaken. Pakistan’s rivers are currently approaching dead storage levels, which is influencing water levels as well as agricultural output.

River Flow Drops Up to 20% Across Provinces

Government statistics indicate a close to 20% decrease in water flow throughout Pakistan from the same period last year. In Sindh, Indus River’s flow fell to 1.33 lakh cusecs from 1.7 lakh in the previous year. Punjab is getting 1.10 lakh cusecs from 1.3 lakh, and in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, flow levels declined to 2,600 cusecs from 2,900 cusecs on June 20.

This reduction has continued since India shelved the treaty. For example, on June 16, water released to Sindh was below more than 16% year-on-year, the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) reports.

Tarbela and Mangla Reservoirs at ‘Dead Levels’

Pakistan’s two large reservoirs — Tarbela on the Indus and Mangla on the Jhelum — have now hit dead storage levels. That is to say, the water has dropped below the lowest usable level and is no longer usable for drinking or irrigation.

Such volumes cause grave danger to Pakistan‘s kharif crop season, usually dependent on irrigation. Reports indicate a 20% fall in sowing of kharif, cotton falling 30% and maize by 15%. Wheat production is also lower by almost 9%.

Since agriculture accounts for 23% of the national income of Pakistan, these failures are a setback for its already ailing economy. Experts say that unless the monsoon season comes early, the nation may experience severe shortages.

Pakistan Makes Several Appeals to India

In the wake of deepening shortages, Pakistan has made persistent attempts to resume the water-sharing arrangement. Syed Ali Murtaza, a secretary in Pakistan’s Ministry of Water Resources, has written four letters to India seeking a reconsideration of the decision, according to reports.

These letters have been referred by India’s Ministry of Jal Shakti to the Ministry of External Affairs. Islamabad also approached the World Bank, which facilitated the 1960 agreement, but the Bank declined to intervene.

Treaty Background and Strategic Shift by India

The Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 divided the river system between India and Pakistan, with Pakistan gaining the rights of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab (Western Rivers) and India gaining rights over Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej (Eastern Rivers).

Pakistan received about 70% of the total river flow. India was allowed to utilize the Western Rivers for non-consumptive uses, but it was not allowed to impede flow.

India’s move to suspend the treaty angered Pakistan, where government officials labeled it “an act of war.” Bilawal Bhutto Zardari, leader of the Pakistan People’s Party, said to DW Urdu:

“Any Indian move to cut off Pakistan’s water supply would be perceived as a threat to Pakistan’s existence, leaving Pakistan with no choice but war.”

India’s Strategic Response: Diverting River Flow

Besides stopping the treaty, India is contemplating the development of a 113 km-long canal to reroute excess waters from the Western Rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — towards Punjab, Haryana, and Rajasthan.

India’s strategic move aims to maximize water use under legal rights within the IWT regime while pressurizing Pakistan on inaction against terrorism.

Pakistan’s Dams Hit ‘Dead Level’ As India Cuts River Flow, Kharif Season At Risk

June 12, 2025, 7:02 am

A sharp decline in the flow of western rivers — Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab — from India has triggered alarm in Pakistan, with water levels at major dams now reaching ‘dead level’. This drop, although common before the monsoon, appears more serious this year due to continued dam flushing and desilting activities by India in Jammu & Kashmir.

Pakistan’s Indus River System Authority (IRSA) confirmed a growing water deficit. On Wednesday, the country released 11,180 cusecs more water than it received. While the inflow stood at 2,41,611 cusecs, the outflow reached 2,52,791 cusecs.

Punjab and Sindh to Face Shortages

The reduced water flow is already affecting key agricultural provinces. Punjab received only 1,14,600 cusecs — a steep 20 per cent drop compared to 1,43,600 cusecs on the same date last year. The shortfall comes at a critical time as the kharif cropping season begins, placing additional pressure on farmers and local irrigation systems.

This imbalance between inflow and outflow is now threatening both irrigation and drinking water availability, particularly in the provinces of Punjab and Sindh, which heavily depend on the Indus system.

India’s Dam Activities Under Scrutiny

Pakistan believes India’s ongoing efforts to desilt and increase storage capacity in its dams are exacerbating the situation. While such operations are within India’s rights under certain conditions of the Indus Waters Treaty, they risk further reducing downstream water supply during already dry periods.

As the monsoon approaches, experts warn that the current imbalance, if left unaddressed, could evolve into a larger water crisis in the coming weeks.

Pakistan Warns of China Blocking Brahmaputra: Should India Be Concerned?

June 3, 2025, 4:49 pm

Despite a halt in military engagements between India and Pakistan, tensions continue to simmer over water. Following the Pahalgam terror attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960, prompting outrage in Islamabad. Reports now indicate that water levels in the Indus and Jhelum rivers within Pakistan have declined significantly, threatening its upcoming summer crop season.

Pakistan’s Warning: “What If China Blocks Brahmaputra?”

Amid water shortages, Pakistan has issued a fresh warning, suggesting India’s move could trigger China to retaliate by halting the flow of the Brahmaputra River into India. Rana Ihsaan Afzal, advisor to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, said on a private news channel:

“If India does something like this and stops the flow of water to Pakistan, then China can also do the same thing… If things like this happen, the entire world will be in a war.”

China, too, has weighed in. Victor Zhikai Gao, vice president of the Center for China and Globalization, cautioned India by saying:

“Just like rivers from India flow into Pakistan, rivers from China also flow into India… If India acts against others, it should be prepared for similar responses in return.”

Himanta Biswa Sarma Debunks Pakistan’s “Brahmaputra Threat”

Reacting strongly, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma dismissed Pakistan’s concerns as unfounded. In a detailed post on X (formerly Twitter), he wrote:

“Let’s dismantle this myth — not with fear, but with facts and national clarity.”

He clarified that China contributes only 30–35% of the Brahmaputra’s water, derived mainly from glacial melt and limited rainfall in Tibet. The remaining 65–70% comes from monsoon rains and tributaries within India.

Sarma explained the river’s strength increases after entering India: “At the Indo-China border (Tuting), flow is 2,000–3,000 metres per second. In Assam plains (for instance, Guwahati), the flow swells to 15,000–20,000 metres per second.”

He even argued that if China blocked the river’s flow, it could help reduce Assam’s flood risks. Sarma concluded by saying:

“China has never officially threatened to weaponise the Brahmaputra,” calling Pakistan’s statement pure “speculative fear-mongering.”

Experts Remain Cautious Despite Sarma’s Reassurance

While Sarma’s response brought some clarity, experts remain cautious. Their concerns stem from China’s announcement in December 2024 to construct the world’s largest hydropower dam on the Yarlung Tsangpo (Brahmaputra) in Tibet.

Experts warn that such a dam could cause flash floods and environmental damage downstream in India. The Yarlung Tsangpo becomes the Brahmaputra upon entering Arunachal Pradesh. Once complete, the dam would produce energy three times greater than China’s current Three Gorges Dam, which generates 88.2 billion kWh annually.

Genevieve Donnellon-May, a geopolitical strategist, warned earlier:

“India worries the project could result in the country depending on China for its water supplies.”

Other analysts also raise concerns about sediment accumulation, which could reduce agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The proximity of the dam to Arunachal Pradesh — a region contested by both nations — adds a strategic dimension to the issue.

Additionally, experts highlight the seismic vulnerability of the Himalayan region. A dam failure or mismanagement during extreme weather could trigger massive downstream flooding in India, causing severe humanitarian and economic fallout.

Water Crisis Deepens in Pakistan: Indus River System Running Dry

June 2, 2025, 6:06 pm

Punjab province of Pakistan is facing a water crisis with the Kharif (summer) crop sowing season commencing. A drastic fall in the water level of major rivers and dams, along with India’s recent hold on the Indus Waters Treaty, has raised alarms regarding a drought-like situation in the region.

Two of its key reservoirs—Tarbela on the Indus River and Mangla on the Jhelum River—are critically low, according to the government of Pakistan. At the same time, the Chenab River has witnessed a “sudden decline” in inflows following India reportedly restricting water flow after the April Pahalgam terror attack.

Dam Levels Drop as Monsoon Rains Delay in Pakistan

Data released by the Indus River System Authority (IRSA) on June 2, 2025, indicates that water availability across the Indus River System in Punjab province has dropped by 10.3% compared to the same day in 2024. Total water flow in the province stood at 1,28,800 Cusecs—down by 14,800 Cusecs from last year.

The deficit is a serious challenge to the farmers, who greatly rely on irrigation in the Kharif season. With weeks still to go before the Southwest Monsoon arrives, there are already worries of crop failure during the hot summer.

India’s Suspension of Treaties Aggravates Crisis

India revoked the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty last month following the Pahalgam terror attack that murdered 25 Indian tourists. The Treaty had assigned 80% of the waters of the Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab Rivers to Pakistan and gave limited rights of use to India. It also required the sharing of data on water levels in the river.

With the treaty suspended, India has stopped sharing vital river data with Pakistan. The loss of up-to-date information has increased the risk to downstream communities, particularly under monsoon-caused flooding. Indian data in past years enabled Pakistan to issue timely evacuation notices in flood-risk areas.

Glacier Conference Highlights Regional Risks

Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif recently spoke at a conference on glacier conservation in Dushanbe, Tajikistan, where he complained about the worsening water crisis. He attributed the worsening situation to India’s move to freeze the treaty, urging world attention towards what he called a rising regional threat.

Earlier estimates by Islamabad predicted a 21% countrywide water shortage this summer, with live storage in the two most important dams reduced by 50%. Authorities have called for prudent use of water and vigilance, emphasizing the critical position of Tarbela and Mangla in both irrigation and hydropower supplies of Punjab and Sindh.

With political tensions escalating and climate pressures increasing, summer crops of Pakistan could be hit hard by an emerging water crisis.

Indus Waters Treaty: Dr. Dua Warns India to Act Before Water Crisis Deepens

June 2, 2025, 3:40 pm

In a stimulating discussion on The Sunday Guardian Podcast with Joyeeta Basu, renowned economist and ex-Union Secretary Dr. Ajay Dua called upon the government of India to strongly stand on its rights to insist on exercising its full rights under the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT).

Citing the 1960 India-Pakistan agreement facilitated by the World Bank, Dr. Dua contended that India has been too restrained in utilizing the water resources of the western rivers: Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

“Indus Waters Treaty, in my opinion, is the most bounteous water treaty in the world, where a nation has agreed to permit its rival to use 80% of its water,” averred Dr. Dua.

India Should Make Use of Its Treaty Rights

Dr. Dua says that India is entitled by the treaty to utilise the western rivers for limited irrigation, generating hydro electricity, and storage. Yet, the nation has not made full use of its rights.

“We have bound ourselves by not constructing dams or storage plants on the western rivers to which we are entitled under the treaty,” he noted.

He added that despite many decades, India only employs less than 10% of its rightful quantum from these rivers.

‘India Needs a Bold Policy Shift’

Dr. Dua in the podcast promoted a clear policy transformation by the Indian government.

“India must stand up for its water rights. We’ve been too meek. It’s time to rethink the treaty,” he asserted.

He condemned India’s soft policy in the wake of Pakistan’s persistent international litigation attempts and aggressive conduct.

“Yet, despite Pakistan’s patronage to terror and repeated attempts to bring the issue to the international court, we have kept the treaty in good faith,” stressed Dr. Dua.

Geopolitical and Environmental Aspects

Dr. Dua pointed out that beyond geopolitical considerations, India’s water policy also has to account for domestic development and future needs.

“Actually, we’re not even utilizing 10% of our rights. It’s for our internal growth and for making a statement to the world,” he added.

He cautioned that climate change and growing water scarcity would make this problem more severe in the next decades.

“Water is going to be the new challenge of oil. If we don’t wake up now, we’ll be compromising the interests of our future generations,” he said.

Podcast Platform for Strategic Dialogue

The podcast, presented by Joyeeta Basu, is an important platform for policy discussions and debates on national interest. This episode featuring Dr. Dua highlights how strategic inertia has been preventing India from standing up for its rightful position under the IWT.

Dr. Dua’s observations present a compelling argument for India to reassess its traditional water-sharing policies, particularly in the context of ongoing hostilities and evolving environmental circumstances.

‘Not a Single Drop to Pak’: PM Modi Issues Bold Warning on Indus Waters

May 22, 2025, 3:05 pm

PM Narendra Modi declared in a speech in Rajasthan on Thursday, April 22, that Pakistan would no longer receive water from rivers over which India has rights, intensifying the India-Pakistan water dispute. This statement was made following a terror attack in Pahalgam, Kashmir, which claimed 26 innocent lives.

India suspended the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty and accused Pakistan of being involved in the attack. Tensions have since escalated between the nuclear-armed neighbors, despite their recent agreement on a tenuous ceasefire following the most devastating military conflict in nearly three decades.

PM Modi Sends Bold Message to Pakistan

PM Modi gives a strong warning while speaking in Rajasthan, Pakistan must pay a heavy price for every terror strike. He said, “Pakistan’s economy and army will pay for it.” A month after the April 22 attack, which primarily killed Hindu tourists, the harsh remarks were made.

Bikaner, Rajasthan: Prime Minister Narendra Modi says, “…If Pakistan continues to export terrorists, it will be left begging for every penny. Pakistan will not get a single drop of water that belongs to India. Playing with the blood of Indians will cost Pakistan dearly. This is… pic.twitter.com/7ftbYBj9hM

— IANS (@ians_india) May 22, 2025

India accuses Pakistan of supporting the attack, a charge Islamabad vehemently disputes.

Indus Waters Treaty Suspension Adds Fuel

An important turning point was India’s decision to halt the 1960 Indus Waters Treaty, which was mediated by the World Bank. Nearly 80% of Pakistan’s farms are supported by water from three rivers that originate in India, thanks to the treaty.

The long-term effects of the suspension are still unknown, despite Pakistan’s Finance Minister’s assertion that there would be no immediate harm.

On May 10, both countries agreed to a ceasefire despite recent military escalations. Indian Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar affirmed that forces have repositioned and that there is currently no exchange.

However, he issued a warning that India will continue its operations. “We will hit the terrorists where they are if they are in Pakistan,” Jaishankar said in an interview with the Dutch news agency NOS.

Long History of Conflict Over Kashmir

Since gaining independence in 1947, India and Pakistan have clashed quite often. They fought three wars, two of which were over Kashmir. Although both nations control some areas of the region, they both fully claim it. Islamabad is still being accused by New Delhi of harboring Islamist militants. However, Pakistan denies supporting separatists in Kashmir.

After the attack in Kashmir, India isolated Pakistan in several ways. These include halting visa services, halting trade, and closing land borders. Now, Islamabad is under even more stress because of Modi’s water threat.

The growing animosity highlights the fleeting peace between India and Pakistan. With trade, diplomacy, and water at stake, the region closely monitors the escalating tensions.

No Exit, No Breach: India’s Calculated Pause on Indus Waters Treaty | TDG Explainer

May 19, 2025, 2:00 pm

The Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), at one point considered a model of cooperation between enemies, now hangs in a calculated state of limbo. Legal nuances, shifting geopolitics, and the constant threat of cross-border terrorism have all been factors in its current stalemate. For India, the moment is both a strategic chance to reassess the accord and also a dilemma over how hard to lean.

Why India Hasn’t Walked Away Yet

According to top government sources, India’s current position, stalling but not walking away from the treaty is a deliberate, tactical move.It’s aimed at keeping diplomatic pressure on while steering clear of the consequences of a total abrogation.

Legally, the framework of the treaty does not enable unilateral suspension. Article XII(4) of the agreement provides that the treaty is operative “until terminated by a duly ratified treaty concluded for that purpose.” Accordingly, since India hasn’t formally rescinded the agreement, Pakistan can’t hold it guilty of default.

As one Indian senior official put it, “It’s a treaty without an exit ramp. That’s by design but it doesn’t reflect the current reality of state-sponsored terrorism.”

India’s Legal Safeguards

India has made efforts to immunize itself against international legal repercussions. India, in 2019, filed a declaration with the International Court of Justice (ICJ) excluding disputes over Commonwealth-related matters and over matters of national security. The move has the practical effect of precluding Pakistan from pursuing legal remedies at the ICJ.

India also considers its current stance a legal countermeasure under the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties in reference to continued support for terrorism by Pakistan as a basis. Though identifying responsibility for specific terror attacks is complicated, the larger pattern of state-sponsored extremism provides the foundation for India’s diplomatic and moral case.

We are not ripping up the treaty, but we are sending a message that terrorism does not pay—neither in war nor in water-sharing,” another senior official said.

Pakistan’s Vulnerabilities and the World Bank’s Role

Geography is the weakness of Pakistan. Being a lower riparian country, it is at the mercy of Indian-held rivers—the Chenab and Jhelum, running through Jammu & Kashmir. Despite making threats in the past, such as declaring water diversion an ‘act of war’ in 2008, Pakistan has resorted to diplomacy rather than action. This restraint is a sign of both its strategic limitations and the deterrent strength of India.

The World Bank, a designated facilitator of the treaty, also has limited influence. It may nominate neutral experts or arbitrators, but their decisions are not enforceable. The protracted battles over Kishanganga and Ratle dam projects bear out this toothlessness.

India’s Calculated Restraint

India’s calculated restraint in not canceling the treaty altogether has several purposes.

First, by not applying the treaty, India exercises strategic flexibility without provoking international opprobrium. Unilateral withdrawal might expose India to international law or human rights criticism over access to water.

Second, this policy continues diplomatic pressure against Pakistan without driving escalation. India’s stronger economy and increasing world power allow it to stand firm while showing restraint.

Finally, through the exercise of restraint in not making dramatic gestures, India promotes its international reputation as a responsible and stable power—vital when it is aiming for leadership positions within organizations such as the G20, BRICS, and UN.

What the Future Holds

The IWT break symbolizes a larger trend in India’s foreign policy where patient pressure is being exercised in combination. Water, previously considered untouchable even in times of war, is now being used to convey a message: sustained patronage of terrorism has its price.

While the rivers keep flowing, the diplomatic tide has firmly shifted. India has kept the door ajar for redrawing the rules if provocations continue or diplomatic lines snap completely.

Bilawal Bhutto Defends His “Blood in River” Remark Amid Rising Tensions Over Indus Waters Treaty

May 2, 2025, 12:17 pm

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) Chairman Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has again stood by his incendiary statement, “when there is war, blood does flow,” uttered after India halted the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). His comments have been in focus in the wake of the latest terrorist attack on Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam, which left 26 people dead, a majority of whom were tourists.

The Resistance Front (TRF), a Pakistan-based terror outfit proxy, owned up to the attack.

“The Indus is Ours” – Bhutto’s Political Rationale

Bilawal Bhutto had previously uttered the incendiary comment in a public rally in Sukkur, Sindh province, declaring, “The Indus is ours and will remain ours — either our water will flow through it, or their blood.” This was made after India suspended the IWT, a move announced on April 23, one day after the fatal Pahalgam terror attack.

In a recent interview on the BBC, Bhutto reaffirmed his justification of the statement, while pointing out that it was made politically and wasn’t supposed to be an official statement on behalf of Pakistan’s government or army. He clarified, “I am not stationed at the border with a gun, nor do I hold a position in the current government. I was speaking at a political rally on the banks of the River Indus, addressing the day or the day after the Indus Water Treaty was violated by India.”

We speak to @BBhuttoZardari. He rejects India’s allegations #Pakistan was involved in a deadly attack that killed 26 tourists in Pahalgam & echoed the gov’s call for an independent investigation. We asked about his comment – “either water will flow or their blood will” pic.twitter.com/kNGIxBOcVL

— Azadeh Moshiri (@Azadeh_Moshiri) April 30, 2025

Articulation of Pakistani Sentiments

Bhutto explained that his remark was an expression of the collective sentiments of the Pakistani people rather than a personal emotional outburst. He said, “It is not an irrational reaction solely from my side, but an articulation of the feelings of the people of Pakistan. The government in power has said that any decision to withdraw from the Indus Water Treaty would be considered an act of war, and I’m sure you are aware that when there is war, blood does flow.”

He also added that Pakistan was unable to retaliate using its water resources because that would amount to an act of war if India were to weaponize water against Pakistan.

The Indus River and Its Cultural and Historical Importance

In his address, Bhutto also stressed the cultural and historical importance of the Indus River, making it a key part of Pakistan’s heritage. “The Indus runs through Sindh province, and the ancient city of Mohenjo-Daro, the Indus Valley Civilisation, flourished along its banks,” he stated.

Bhutto announced, “But that civilisation lies in Mohenjo-Daro, in Larkana. We are its true custodians, and we will defend it.”

The Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty

The Indus Waters Treaty, facilitated by the World Bank in 1960, had granted India sole rights over the eastern rivers—Sutlej, Beas, and Ravi—while Pakistan held the western rivers—Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab.

With the suspension of the treaty, India is said to be looking for means to exploit the waters of the western rivers more comprehensively, further fueling tensions between the two countries.

Indus Waters Treaty deserves immediate abrogation

April 29, 2025, 1:38 am

A shocking and tragic terror attack on 25th April 2025 at Pahalgam by state-sponsored terrorists from Pakistan prompted India to take a bold strategy and diplomatic steps to act decisively against Pakistan. Due to the consequences of it, India has put the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 held in hold. This action has put the Treaty on the Centre stage of IndoPakistan relations.

India’s bold step to hold the Indus Waters Treaty reflects a paradigm shift in Indian diplomacy, as the Indus Waters Treaty had not been affected since 1960, even during the Indo-Pakistan conflict of 1965, 1971, and the Kargil war of 1999, and other major Indo-Pak standoffs. The Indian action will realign the mechanism for the regional water security management of Transboundary water resources as well as the future perspective and gold post for Indo-Pak relations. After the expiration of the short-term Standstill Agreement of 1947, which provided a status quo to all the administrative arrangements existing between the British Crown and the state would continue unaltered until new arrangements were made.

On April 1, 1948, India stopped water flow from canals into Pakistan. However, the Inter-Dominion Accord of May 4, 1948, resumed water flow from India to the Pakistan parts of the Indus basin, subject to the annual payment. This was the first time India exercised Water as a diplomatic Aqua-weapon. Later, Pakistan approached an international forum in 1951 against this arrangement. Hence, after the nineyear-long deliberation on 19 September 1960, India and Pakistan signed the water treaty, which was effective retrospectively from 1 April 1960. The Treaty was formalized and fine lines under the MB of the United Nations, the World Bank, led by president black. The Other signatories to the Treaty were International Bank for reconstruction and development ( IBRD ) World Bank as a broker and other countries like Australia, Canada, West Germany, New Zealand, United Kingdom and the United States is a partner to the plan of external financing under the ages of IBRD funds for developing infrastructure for the water management in a Indus water system basis in Pakistan as during the process of partition newly defined international border divided Indus basin in a such a fashion that leaving Pakistan as the lower riparian and India as the upper riparian. Most of the irrigation canals came into Pakistan where whereas the major water reservoirs, namely Madhopur on the Ravi River and the other at Ferozepur on the Sutlej River, continue to remain with India. Due to this highly complex pre-independence situation, India was obligated to support Pakistan by extending a fixed contribution of £62.06 million (approximately $131 million at the time) toward the cost of new irrigation infrastructure in Pakistan in ten instalments as an obligation. Being an international transboundary river treaty, the Indus Waters Treaty is guided by the key principles to enhance and foster cooperation and sustainable management of shared water resources based on equitability, preserve human and environmental ecosystems, thereby leading the path of peace and stability in the region.

The treaty delimited and fixed the rights and obligations of both countries concerning the use of the waters of the Indus River system. Pakistan has unrestricted control of 70% of the western rivers like Indus, Jhelum, and Chenab, located in India, with a mean annual flow of 99 billion cubic meters. The remaining 30% of water of western rivers is available for India’s limited use for irrigation as well as unrestricted non-consumptive uses such as power generation, navigation, floating of property, fish culture, etc. However, India got control over Eastern Rivers, Ravi, Beas, and Sutlej with a mean annual flow of 41 billion cubic meters (33-million-acre feet) for water utilization. The treaty has detailed regulations for India regarding building projects over the western rivers. The treaty has well welldefined three-tiered mechanism to resolve disputes. Article IX, Annexures F AND G have specified three measures, including a Permanent Indus Commission (PIC) having commissioners from both India and Pakistan as a forum of exchange of Hydrological data and other measures to implement the treaty. If needed, may approach a Neutral Expert and finally through a designated Court of Arbitrators. It is worth mentioning that the present role of the World Bank is highly Limited as a facilitator to initiate the process of dispute settlement related to the implementation of the Indus water treaty. The role of other countries that were signatories during the finalization of the treaty was confined to a period of 10 years to support Pakistan financially in developing water management infrastructure only. Though there is no specific clause placed in the Treaty regarding unilateral abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties provides enough scope to review the provisions of the treaty in the basic changes of circumstances from the time of implementation of the treaty. Since the Treaty is based on good faith and mutual friendship and relations there any act of omission of such principles, like enemy actions, acts of terror, and other unlawful measures, occurs, it provides the scope for any Country to abrogate the Treaty. Hens India has all right to act against the wishful intentions of Pakistan. Though the Indus Waters Treaty has sustained for more than 65 years despite a very volatile Indo-Pakistan relationship. However, the treaty remained in question due to its very significant tilt of water distribution towards Pakistan. The treaty is also silent on issues like the protection of the environment and the ecosystem of the region. The J&K legislative assembly has passed the resolution in 2003 and again in 2016, demanding revision, citing that the treaty is greatly influencing the growth of irrigation and hydroelectric projects in the state. A public litigation PIL is also pending in the Supreme Court of India against the treaty and to declare it unconstitutional. The first action on the need to review of treaty was raised by India in 2016 as a counter response to the attack on an army camp in Uri by Pakistan. The government of India has also officially communicated to Pakistan in Jan 2023 and again in Sep 2024 to renegotiate the Indus Water Treaty, as the actions and intentions of Pakistan are against the spirit and objectives of the treaty. India has to exercise various available options to implement the treaty held in abeyance. As such, the very first measure is to ensure complete stoppage of a huge volume of surplus overflow of Sutlej water from the Firozpur barrage, and Ravi water from the Madhpur barrage. As an Intermediate measure, there is a need to develop rapid and trans river canalization in northern India. As a long-term measure, India has to develop more reservoirs and hydro projects in Jammu and Kashmir, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh. India has to gear up with its full throttle to negotiate with China on the creation of infrastructure development, hydro projects, and energy systems out of the Indus water river system as a part of CPEC in the illegally occupied part of Kashmir by Pakistan. The dispute of the Indus Waters Treaty may influence other trans boundary river water treaties between India and neighbouring countries. It includes the Mahakali and Kosi Agreements with Nepal, the Ganga Water Treaty with Bangladesh, and most significantly, is Brahmaputra database relationship with China. Hence, India has to redesign strategies to handle international pressure to maintain sustainable relations and arrangements of the water sharing mechanism. The future war will be based on the control over Cyber, Space, Energy, and effective control of water and maritime resources. The Indus Waters Treaty is imbalanced, unrealistic, and obsolete in the present form and scenario. India must stick to its guns; we have the legitimate right to abrogate the existing Indus Waters Treaty and renegotiate sustainable India-centric and Kashmir-oriented transboundary river water and ecosystem management with Pakistan. The treaty deserves abrogation with immediate effect. Major General J.K.S. Parihar, Sena Medal, Bar to Vishisht Seva Medal (Retd.), Former Additional Director General, AFMS and Expert on Defence and International Strategic Affairs

2 Key Factors Behind Pakistan’s Fury Over India’s Suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty | TDG Explainer

April 27, 2025, 2:46 pm

India’s move to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) as a retaliatory measure for the Pahalgam attack has evoked a strong reaction from Pakistan. This action has enraged Pakistani leaders such as PPP chief Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari, who announced Pakistan as the actual custodian of the Indus civilization. He threatened India, stating, “either their water will flow in the Sindh or else Indians’ blood will flow through it.”

Pakistan’s Minister Hanif Abbasi escalated tension by warning India of nuclear strike. According to him, Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal, which houses Ghori, Shaheen, and Ghaznavi missiles as well as 130 nuclear warheads, is ‘only for India’. Abbasi further cautioned that if water supply is cut in case of stopping the IWT, Pakistan will attack and declare war.

The Indus Waters Treaty

India’s Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) announced the treaty’s indefinite suspension on Wednesday, after a terrorist attack in Pahalgam killed 26 individuals. It is suspected that the Resistance Front (TRF), a splinter group of the Pakistan-based Lashkar-e-Taiba group, conducted the attack. India’s notification to suspend the IWT formally attributes the action to Pakistan’s continued cross-border terrorism.

The Indus Waters Treaty, ratified in 1960 by India and Pakistan with the World Bank as an additional signatory, is meant to share the waters of the Indus system equitably. India controls the waters of the three ‘Eastern Rivers’—Beas, Ravi, and Sutlej, while Pakistan controls the three ‘Western Rivers’—Indus, Chenab, and Jhelum. The treaty also provides for incidental use of the rivers of the other country for specific uses, like small hydroelectric projects.

In 2019, following the Pulwama terror attack, Prime Minister Narendra Modi had apparently said, “blood and water can’t flow together,” but India had not taken this step at that point.

Immediate Impact

Pakistan’s agriculture is highly dependent on the Indus basin, and at least 80% of its agricultural requirements are based on the river system. A disruption in water supply would be disastrous, with possible consequences of crop failures, food insecurity, inflation, and major economic losses. Agriculture accounts for approximately 20% of Pakistan’s GDP and provides employment to about 40% of the population.

In addition, Pakistan’s power generation through hydroelectricity, dependent upon dams like Tarbela and Mangla, is threatened. Lower water flow would add to Pakistan’s prevailing energy crisis and cause power shortages and disruptions in economic activity.

Hidden Effects of Suspension

Apart from the self-evident economic and agricultural impacts, the imposition of the IWT suspension has two covert effects. Firstly, India is no longer obligated to notify Pakistan on any work conducted on the three rivers. Previously, India would have to provide at least six months’ notice, which generally resulted in protests from Pakistan on trivial matters. This newfound freedom permits India to introduce new technology for dam-building and water storage.

The second, psychological effect is the change in perception of water management. Pakistan now knows that India can release or hold back water without notice, which can have a serious impact on Pakistan’s crop season. This manipulation of water flow can have a significant influence on Pakistan’s agricultural production, further increasing the strain on its resources.

Bilawal Bhutto Issues Warning Over Indus Treaty Dispute

April 26, 2025, 10:54 am

Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) leader Bilawal Bhutto-Zardari has reacted strongly to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty. During a public rally on Friday, he warned India about the consequences. He said, “The Indus is ours and will remain ours. Either our water will flow through it, or their blood will.”

His statement came shortly after the terror attack in Pahalgam, which killed 26 tourists. The attack further increased tensions between India and Pakistan.

Treaty Plays a Vital Role for Pakistan

The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in September 1960. After years of talks, India and Pakistan agreed on how to share the waters from six rivers in the Indus basin. The treaty is critical for Pakistan. Around 80% of its farmland depends on these river waters.

By suspending the agreement, India could deeply affect Pakistan’s agriculture and economy. Bhutto’s strong remarks reflect the seriousness of the situation.

Bhutto Slams PM Modi’s Actions

Bhutto also took aim at Prime Minister Narendra Modi. He accused Modi of stirring conflict and trying to take control of the Indus waters. He said, “He (Modi) says they are heirs to a civilisation thousands of years old, but that civilisation lies in Mohenjo Daro, in Larkana. We are its true custodians, and we will defend it.”

Although he mentioned the ancient city in Pakistan, the Indus Valley civilisation extended into parts of western India as well.

Pakistan’s Leaders Respond to Modi

Bhutto became the second senior Pakistani leader to criticize PM Modi. Earlier, Defence Minister Khawaja Asif also responded to Modi’s speech in Bihar.

In that speech, Modi gave a strong message after the Pahalgam attack. He said India would “identify, track and punish” every terrorist and their supporters. He also promised to “pursue them to the ends of the earth.”

Bhutto Accuses India of Hiding Failures

Bhutto claimed that India was using the terror attack to hide its own issues. He said Pakistan had already condemned the attack. However, India continued to blame Pakistan to divert public attention.

He also accused India of violating the treaty. He said, “India is unlawfully abrogating the treaty under which it had acknowledged that the Indus belongs to Pakistan.”

‘Not a Drop to Pakistan’: Jal Shakti Minister After Pahalgam Terror Attack

April 25, 2025, 11:37 pm

In a bold response to the Pahalgam terror attack that claimed 26 innocent lives, Jal Shakti Minister CR Paatil has vowed that India will not let a single drop of water flow into Pakistan. His strong remarks come in the wake of India’s decision to suspend the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT)—a historic water-sharing agreement signed with Pakistan in 1960.

“We will ensure that not a single drop of water flows into Pakistan from India,” Paatil said after a key meeting chaired by Union Home Minister Amit Shah in New Delhi.

High-Level Meeting on Indus Waters Treaty Suspension

The meeting included senior officials from multiple ministries and focused on strategizing India’s next steps following the suspension of the IWT. Sources revealed that Prime Minister Narendra Modi had issued directives in response to the attack, and the gathering was a follow-up to ensure swift and lawful execution.

“The Modi government’s historic decision on the Indus Waters Treaty is lawful and in national interest,” Paatil later posted on X, affirming India’s tough stance.

Strong Message to Pakistan

The BJP minister emphasized that this move sends a clear and strong message to Pakistan: India will not tolerate terrorism. The government is reportedly working on a long-term plan to effectively halt water flow into Pakistan from the Indus river system, which originates largely in India.

Political Reactions and Regional Voices

Jammu and Kashmir’s former Chief Minister Omar Abdullah also weighed in, stating that the treaty was never supported by the people of J&K.

“Let’s be honest, we have never been in favour of the Indus Waters Treaty,” said Abdullah. “What the long-term implications are, only time will tell.”

What is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the World Bank’s mediation, the Indus Waters Treaty allocated three rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) to India and three (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab) to Pakistan. India’s suspension of the treaty marks a significant geopolitical shift, as water has long been a sensitive issue between the two nations.

Stay tuned for updates on how this historic move reshapes India-Pakistan relations and regional diplomacy.

Pakistan Ministers Slam India’s Suspension of Indus Waters Treaty as ‘Cowardly’ and ‘Immature’

April 24, 2025, 1:16 pm

In the wake of the deadly terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, that left 26 dead, India declared it was suspending the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) of 1960 with Pakistan. The move elicited swift condemnation from Pakistan, whose officials referred to the move as “cowardly” and “an act of water warfare.”

Power Minister of Pakistan, Awais Leghari, responded sharply to the Indian move. Referring to a report by Dawn, Leghari described India’s act as a “reckless suspension” of the treaty and added, “Every drop is ours by right, and we will defend it with full force — legally, politically, and globally.”

Pakistan Responds Sharply on Indus Waters Treaty Suspension

Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar also joined in, referring to India’s action as “inappropriate.” He insisted, “There is no evidence … expressing their anger like this is inappropriate.” He also described the Indian announcement as a “knee-jerk reaction” that looked “immature and presumptuous.”

India’s move follows the heightened tensions with Pakistan after the Pahalgam attack. The Indian government blamed the cross-border terrorism on groups supported by Pakistan and announced that the IWT would be suspended until Islamabad “credibly and irrevocably” gives up support for terrorism.

Understanding the Scope of the Indus Waters Treaty

Signed in 1960 under the mediation of the World Bank, the Indus Waters Treaty governs the use of the Indus River system between India and Pakistan. The system consists of the Indus River and its tributaries — the Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Jhelum, and Chenab. Although India has unrestricted rights over the Eastern Rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej), Pakistan possesses the Western Rivers (Indus, Jhelum, Chenab).

India’s former Indus Water Commissioner Pradeep Kumar Saxena said this might be the beginning of the abrogation of the treaty. “Although there is no explicit provision in the Treaty for its abrogation, Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on Law of the Treaties provides sufficient room under which the treaty can be repudiated in view of the fundamental change of circumstances,” Saxena told PTI.

Impact on Projects and Future Developments

India can now have greater freedom in running and designing hydropower projects on the Western Rivers, such as Kishanganga, Ratle, and Pakal Dul. The treaty previously limited activities such as reservoir flushing, which is necessary for desilting. With the suspension in effect, India can conduct these activities whenever it wishes, particularly during non-monsoon seasons that would impact Pakistan’s agricultural cycles.

India had also been limited from holding over 3.6 million acre-feet (MAF) of water on Western Rivers, but these restrictions could now be removed. Saxena stated, “India will now have no restriction on storage on Western rivers, particularly the Jhelum, and India can take a number of flood control measures to mitigate floods in the Valley.”

Pakistan’s Irrigation and Agricultural Vulnerabilities

Most of Pakistani Punjab is reliant on water from the Indus and its tributaries. Withdrawal or alteration of flow patterns, particularly during planting seasons, could compromise agricultural yield. With data sharing on floods no longer a requirement, Pakistan might experience additional difficulties during monsoon seasons.

Furthermore, the Pakistani delegations’ visits to monitor Indian projects—required by the IWT—might be suspended now as well, weakening bilateral monitoring and trust further.

Historical Context and Repercussions

The controversy over the use of Indus waters existed before the treaty. Irrigation systems vital to Pakistan’s agriculture were left in Indian territory at independence, and early differences arose. The IWT settled most of these, but has also been a recurring source of contention regarding new Indian hydropower projects.

Previous Pakistani objections have derailed or entangled initiatives such as Baglihar, Salal, Uri, Chutak, and Nimoo Bazgo. But with the treaty suspended, New Delhi no longer needs to entertain Islamabad’s objections in pursuing similar projects.

Geopolitical Stakes

India’s move puts further strain on its already tense relations with Pakistan. The suspension may be used as leverage to push Pakistan into the restriction of support to cross-border terrorism, an issue of dispute since the 2019 Pulwama attack, following which India also sanctioned new hydropower projects in Ladakh.

India asserts that it is acting in the interest of national security and Pakistan’s non-adherence to its share of bilateral agreements. Pakistan’s political leadership, in turn, interprets the suspension as a violation of international standards and promises to retaliate using diplomatic and judicial means.

The actions that either side will take next, involving potential escalation, negotiation, or total renunciation of the treaty, will seal the destiny of water-sharing among the two nuclear neighbors.

Pulwama Didn’t Break It, But Pahalgam Did — The End of India’s Patience with IWT | TDG Explainer

April 24, 2025, 2:34 am

India and Pakistan’s turbulent history is filled with wars, conflicts, and cross-border tensions. Yet, amidst it all, one agreement remained untouched for decades — the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). Even after the deadly Pulwama attack in 2019, India didn’t suspend it. But in 2025, after the Pahalgam terror attack, that line of restraint was finally crossed.

Here’s a comprehensive look at why this treaty has lasted so long, why it wasn’t touched after Pulwama, and what changed now.

What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960 between India and Pakistan with the World Bank as a mediator.
It divided the six rivers of the Indus basin:
- Western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab, Indus) were given to Pakistan.
- Eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) were given to India.
India was allowed limited use (irrigation, hydropower) on western rivers but couldn’t divert the flow.
It was seen as a symbol of cooperation, even during wars and crises.

Why Wasn’t It Suspended After Pulwama in 2019?

Despite immense public anger and diplomatic tension post-Pulwama, India chose not to suspend the IWT. Here’s why:

International Image: India aimed to project itself as a responsible democracy and peace-abiding state.
Legal Constraints: One-sided termination could have resulted in international legal backlash.
World Bank’s Role: The World Bank’s involvement meant any abrupt move risked triggering mediation or arbitration.
Lack of Infrastructure: India lacked the technical infrastructure to divert or hold the western rivers’ water.
Mixed Global Opinion: The global community wasn’t fully aligned with India’s concerns regarding Pakistan-backed terrorism.
Domestic Caution: With elections approaching, the government sought to avoid legal and diplomatic complexities.

So, What Changed in 2025?

The suspension in 2025 wasn’t a knee-jerk reaction. It was a calculated and long-prepared move.

Global Support: Pakistan is now widely recognized for harboring terror groups, strengthening India’s global position.
Legal Preparation: India notified the World Bank in 2023 about treaty disputes, making the 2025 move pre-informed.
Technical Readiness: India has completed major dam projects (Kishanganga, Ratle), enabling control over river flow.
Economic Weakness of Pakistan: Pakistan’s financial crisis limits its ability to legally challenge India or gather global support.
Political Climate in India: A stable government with a firm national security stance, and the “water for terror” narrative has gained traction.

What Does India Gain by Suspending the Treaty?

Strategic Pressure: Water control becomes a diplomatic and military tool.
Domestic Support: The move is popular with the public and aligns with India’s security-first policy.
Global Messaging: Shows India is no longer bound by old frameworks in the face of repeated attacks.

What Does Pakistan Lose?

Water Security Threatened: Over 80% of Pakistan’s agriculture depends on Indus river water.
Legal and Diplomatic Challenges: Difficult to fight back in court or global forums given its own record.
Loss of Leverage: One of the few remaining “trust-based” pacts between the two nations is now in question.

What About Other India-Pakistan Agreements?

India and Pakistan have several agreements beyond IWT:

Simla Agreement (1972):
- Purpose: Bilateral dispute resolution framework post-1971 war.
- If Suspended: May open LoC issues to internationalization — risky for both sides.
Tashkent Agreement (1966):
- Purpose: Post-1965 war peace deal.
- If Suspended: Mostly symbolic today.
Agreement on Prohibition of Attacks on Nuclear Installations (1988):
- Purpose: Both countries notify each other of nuclear facilities.
- If Suspended: Suspending it may raise nuclear war risk perception.
Cross-Border Trade & Visa Agreements:
- Purpose: Limited people-to-people & goods movement.
- If Suspended: Suspension already partially in place; full block would further isolate people.

Final Takeaway

The Indus Waters Treaty remained a relic of peace even when peace itself was fragile. In 2019, the risks were too high — legally, diplomatically, and technically. In 2025, those risks have been managed, and the strategic timing aligned.

India’s message is loud and clear: terrorism will now cost more than just diplomatic disapproval — it may cost lifelines like water.

India Downgrades Ties with Pakistan After Pahalgam Terror Attack

April 24, 2025, 2:08 am

A day after the brutal terror attack in Pahalgam that claimed 26 lives, India has announced a series of tough retaliatory measures against Pakistan, citing cross-border linkages to the attack.

At a high-level Cabinet Committee on Security (CCS) meeting chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the government decided to:

Suspend the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960
Shut down the Integrated Check Post (ICP) at Attari
Expel Pakistani defence advisors
Cancel existing SAARC visas for Pakistani nationals
Reduce diplomatic staff strength in both countries’ High Commissions

“Enough is Enough,” Says India

At a late-night media briefing, Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri said,

“The Indus Waters Treaty will be held in abeyance with immediate effect until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures support for cross-border terrorism.”

He also announced that Indian defence advisors would be withdrawn from Islamabad, while their Pakistani counterparts in New Delhi have been declared persona non grata and given a week to leave.

Attari Land Border Closed

India has shut the Attari border post, the only operational land route between the two countries. Pakistani nationals holding SAARC Visa Exemptions will no longer be allowed entry into India. All such visas are now deemed cancelled.

Those who have crossed the border with valid endorsements will be allowed to return before May 1.

Pursuit of Justice

The CCS resolved to bring the perpetrators and their sponsors to justice. Referring to the extradition of Tahawwur Rana, Misri emphasized India’s firm stance on global counter-terrorism cooperation.

Global Condemnation

The Pahalgam attack has drawn international condemnation, with several countries standing in solidarity with India and calling for zero tolerance against terrorism.

Tightened Security at Home

The government has directed security forces to maintain high vigilance across the country, especially in sensitive regions like Jammu and Kashmir.

“This attack came in the wake of successful elections and economic growth in J&K. Its timing is not a coincidence,” Misri stated.

India Suspends Indus Waters Treaty with Pakistan After Pahalgam Terror Attack

April 24, 2025, 12:28 am

New Delhi: In a significant diplomatic move, the Indian government has suspended the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 with Pakistan following the deadly terror attack in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, which claimed the lives of 26 people, mostly tourists.

The decision was announced after an urgent meeting of the Cabinet Committee on Security, chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The government accused Pakistan of continuing to harbour and support cross-border terrorism, including its role in the latest attack linked to The Resistance Front (TRF), an affiliate of Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT).

“The Indus Waters Treaty will be held in abeyance with immediate effect, until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures its support for cross-border terrorism,” said Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri.

What Is the Indus Waters Treaty?

Signed in 1960, the Indus Waters Treaty was brokered by the World Bank and is considered one of the most successful water-sharing agreements in the world. It governs the use of the Indus River and its five tributaries — Ravi, Beas, Sutlej, Chenab, and Jhelum — between India and Pakistan.

Eastern Rivers: (Ravi, Beas, Sutlej) allocated to India for unrestricted use.
Western Rivers: (Indus, Chenab, Jhelum) allocated to Pakistan, with limited usage rights for India (e.g., hydroelectricity, domestic use).

It also established a Permanent Indus Commission, with one commissioner from each country, to handle questions, resolve differences, and manage water-sharing communication.

Why the Suspension Matters

The Indus River system is a lifeline for agriculture and drinking water in Pakistan. With climate change already shrinking glacial sources, any interruption in water flow can have serious consequences for Pakistan’s water security and food supply.

India’s move sends a strong message, leveraging water diplomacy as a tool to pressurize Pakistan over its inaction on terrorism.

India’s Push for Treaty Review

India had already formally notified Pakistan in August 2024 of its intent to review the treaty under Article XII (3), citing changes in regional demographics and environmental realities.
India also criticized Pakistan’s handling of disputes over projects like Kishanganga and Ratle, where Islamabad invoked both the Neutral Expert and the Permanent Court of Arbitration, risking conflicting rulings.

India maintains that issues should be resolved through the graded mechanism outlined in the treaty instead of parallel dispute channels.

What’s Next?

While the World Bank has a limited procedural role, the suspension marks a serious escalation in India-Pakistan relations. The ball is now in Pakistan’s court to take tangible steps against terror groups if it hopes to restore dialogue on shared resources.

This development turns a page in South Asia’s water diplomacy and signals a no-tolerance policy towards terrorism from the Indian side.