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Crash on Dalal Street? These 3 Stocks Could Still Make You Big Money

April 7, 2025, 12:33 pm

In spite of the sudden market crash in equity markets prompted by global trade tensions, leading brokerage houses have found exciting opportunities in specific Indian stocks. Companies such as Antique, Emkay Global, and InCred Equities have published positive outlooks on Trent, Delhivery, and Ashok Leyland, highlighting their strong fundamentals, aggressive growth strategies, and beneficial industry dynamics.

The Indian market crashed sharply on Monday in accordance with the international panic created by increasing trade tensions and recession fears. The BSE Sensex fell over 3,000 points, while the Nifty50 lost over 1,000 points, momentarily slipping below the key 22,000 mark within the initial 15 minutes of trade.

However, amid turmoil, senior analysts are urging investors to take a step back and look at the larger picture and target quality stocks with robust growth prospects.

Antique Retains ‘Buy’ on Trent Even After Target Reduction

Antique Broking has reaffirmed its ‘Buy’ recommendation on Trent, reducing its target price to ₹6,801 from ₹7,363, still commanding an upside of 22% over the previously traded price of ₹5,561.

The brokerage cut FY25–FY27 EPS estimates by 2% 10%, with Trent’s 28% YoY Q4 revenue growth marginally short of expectations. Nonetheless, the store expansion continues unabated. Trent opened 130 new Zudio stores and 10 new Westside stores in Q4 alone. The majority of these were opened toward the end of the quarter, and Antique anticipates their full impact to be felt in Q1 FY26.

“While the high base effect will moderate Trent’s growth momentum in the near term, the company continues to be well-placed to strongly outperform its peers over the medium to long term,” the brokerage added.

The report also highlighted that Trent is expected to continue its aggressive growth trajectory with a strategy to open about 200 new Zudio stores within the next two years.

Emkay Sees 55% Upside in Delhivery After Ecom Express Acquisition.

Emkay Global has reiterated its ‘Buy’ recommendation on Delhivery with a target price of ₹400, which implies a 55% return from the current price of ₹258.

The major in logistics recently hit the headlines by acquiring Ecom Express, the country’s second-largest B2C 3PL player, for ₹14 billion. The acquisition makes Delhivery a market leader in the industry with a 55–60% market share in the B2C express logistics segment—more than double the size of its nearest rival.

Together, the combined network already serves 97% of India’s pin codes, positioning the company for major cost synergies in the next 12–18 months. Analysts also anticipate enhanced last-mile utilization, which represents about 50% of linehaul cost now, to further boost profitability after integration.

Although the valuation seems compelling, the acquisition won’t be short-term earnings accretive. Yet, given high customer overlap and experience with the Spoton acquisition, Emkay expects easier sales retention and network integration,” the report said.

The report, however, also pointed to issues related to Meesho insourcing logistics increasingly, which would affect volume growth in the short term.

InCred Recommends ‘ADD’ in Ashok Leyland, has a Target of ₹265

InCred Equities has provided Ashok Leyland with an ‘ADD’ rating and a target price of ₹265, which indicates a possible 29% increase from its previously traded price of ₹205.

The brokerage views high growth potential in the medium and heavy commercial vehicle (MHCV) segment, specifically in the first half of FY25, due to a low base effect. This is likely to aid a 6% growth in FY26.

Along with core commercial vehicle volume sales, Ashok Leyland is also gaining traction in diversifying its revenues. The company is stepping up its play on exports, light commercial vehicles (LCVs), and spare parts, which is likely to cushion EBITDA volatility due to truck demand fluctuations.

“With early demand recovery signs, InCred continues to remain bullish on the stock,” the report continued.

Underlying Investment Themes Remains Unscathed

These tips are part of a wider optimism among analysts in some areas: fashion retail’s speedy store roll-out, consolidation in the logistics market, and diversified automotive revenue streams. All of these spaces offer promising upside potential even amid near-term volatility.

As global uncertainties continue to weigh on Indian markets, brokerage firms advise investors to target high-quality stocks with convincing long-term stories—such as Trent, Delhivery, and Ashok Leyland.

Nifty Breaks 24,200, Sensex Nears 80,000 at Market Open

July 2, 2024, 10:08 am

Indian stocks reached record highs today (July 2), boosted by gains in IT companies and hopes for a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September. The NSE Nifty 50 increased by 0.21% to 24,186.5 points, while the BSE Sensex climbed 0.22% to 79,653.21 points at 9:21 a.m. IST.

IT stocks, which had risen by 2% in the previous session, added another 0.7% today. All 13 major sectors saw gains, with smaller and mid-sized companies also seeing increases of 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively.

Meanwhile, the rupee weakened by 12 paise to 83.56 against the US dollar in early trading. This was due to a stronger US dollar in global markets and higher crude oil prices.

Forex traders explained that oil importers and foreign investors were buying US dollars because of rising US yields, which contributed to the rupee’s decline.

In the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee started at 83.51 and then fell further to 83.56 against the dollar, a drop of 12 paise from the previous day’s close.

Indian stocks rise despite recent sell-off

May 15, 2024, 10:33 am

Mainly driven by optimistic indications from the US markets that rose overnight, stock indices started Wednesday’s session with modest gains, continuing their bullish trend for the fourth straight session.

Nifty was up 37.35 points, or 0.17 percent, at 22,255.20 points at 9:27 a.m., while the Sensex was up 89.20 points, or 0.12 percent, at 73,193.81 points. All other sectors indices was up at opening, apart from Nifty Private Bank and Nifty Financial Services.

A strong US currency, concerns about the Lok Sabha elections because of a trend of decreased voter attendance in the phases that have been held so far, and profit-taking following the recent spike were all factors analysts cited for the indices’ persistent losses throughout the previous week.

Before June 4th, the counting day, clarity on election trends is anticipated, and there may be a big market response. Using a ‘buy on dips’ approach would be prudent at this point. As a result of FII selling, FII-heavy stocks now provide good bottom fishing possibilities. Strong fundamentals are demonstrated by major banks, capital goods companies, well-known automakers, and top IT companies like TCS, said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

For the ninth straight day on Tuesday, foreign investors kept selling Indian stocks. On the other hand, over the last two weeks, domestic institutional investors have continued to be net purchases, offsetting the withdrawals by overseas investors.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have recently turned net sellers in Indian equities. Until mid-April, FPIs had been net buyers for three consecutive months, but data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) indicates that they have collectively sold stocks worth Rs 8,671 crore in April. In May, FPIs have divested stocks worth Rs 22,767 crore.

Meanwhile, stocks in other Asian markets advanced on Wednesday, following a significant rally in the US, as investors await crucial inflation data later in the day, which will offer insights into the future monetary policy actions of the Federal Reserve.

Indian stocks rise steadily on Tuesday morning, with the Sensex rising 500 points

January 23, 2024, 11:46 am

At the opening bell on Tuesday, Indian stock indices saw a sharp increase in trading and came very close to reaching all-time highs. The Nifty and Sensex, two benchmark indices, were up 0.7-8% from their closing on Saturday. 39 of the closely watched Nifty 50 stocks increased at the opening bell, while the remaining 11 fell. According to NSE data, the top five individual stock gainers were Cipla, ICICI Bank, Sun Pharma, Power Grid Corp, and Bharti Airtel, while the top five losers were Asian Paints, Hindustan Unilever, Britania, HDFC Bank, and BPCL.

On Monday, Indian stock exchanges were closed for trading on the occasion of Pran Pratistha of Ram Temple in Ayodhya.
The steam in the Indian stock market this morning was also led by the news that India has pipped Hong Kong to become the fourth-highest equity market globally. The combined value of shares listed on Indian exchanges reached USD 4.33 trillion as of Monday’s close, versus USD 4.29 trillion for Hong Kong, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
India’s stock market capitalization crossed USD 4 trillion for the first time on December 5, 2023, with about half of that reportedly coming in the past four years.
The top three stock markets are the US, China, and Japan.

Indian stocks off to a weak New Year, trading marginally lower in red

January 1, 2024, 11:23 am

The Indian stock indices had a slightly negative start to the New Year, carrying over losses from the previous trading session. This was mainly because investors were taking profits following an impressive 2023 cumulative performance. As analysts have noted, high valuations are also cause for concern. The benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty, settled the session marginally lower on Friday, the final active session of 2023, mainly as a result of profit booking and muted global cues. Investing in Indian stocks has yielded excellent returns for investors over the last 12 months. Despite some volatility, primarily during the Adani-Hindenburg scandal and more recently during the early stages of the Israel-Hamas conflict, stock market investors saw substantial financial gains in 2023.

In 2023, Sensex and Nifty gained 18-19 per cent, on a cumulative basis. The indices had gained a mere 3-4 per cent in 2022.
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) have trained their sight towards India, becoming net buyers in the country’s stock market in the calendar year 2023.
In December, especially, they made a beeline to invest in Indian stock markets, with a cumulative accumulation of Rs 66,135 crore. To put it into context, the entire year saw an inflow of about Rs 171,107 crore, and notably, over one-third of it came in December. In November, the FPI inflow was Rs 9,001 crore, data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) showed.

Indian stocks firm on Q2 GDP numbers, Nifty reaching a record high

December 1, 2023, 11:56 am

On Friday morning, the final session before the weekend, Indian stock indices saw strong trading following the country’s announcement of higher-than-expected GDP growth in the July-September quarter of the 2023–24 fiscal year. At 20,263 points, the Nifty hit an all-time high today, closing 0.6% higher than it did in the previous session. Sensex opened this morning at 67,435 points, roughly 500 points below its record high. According to data released on Thursday, the Indian economy grew by 7.6% during the July–September quarter of the current fiscal year 2023–24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy.

“Sunil Gavaskar, The greatest opening batsman always took a fresh guard after reaching a milestone. It makes sense to take a fresh guard post market reaching all-time high,” said Nilesh Shah, MD Kotak Mahindra AMC.
“3G of Growth (earnings likely to be in the early to mid-teens), Governance (better than emerging market peers and comparable to developed world), and Green (lowest per capita carbon emitter in the world) gives confidence that it is time to stay on the pitch and score more runs,” Shah added.

Indian stocks marginally increase on Wednesday at the opening bell

November 22, 2023, 11:17 am

At the opening bell on Wednesday, the Indian stock indexes were slightly higher. The overnight losses in the US global benchmark market probably restricted the upside. The Indian Sensex and Nifty indices were up about 0.1% and 0.7%, respectively, from their closing at 9:35 a.m. Sectoral index movement this morning was uneven, with Nifty Media leading the mover and Nifty Realty leading the loser.

Among the Nifty 50 stocks which are widely tracked, 33 advanced, 16 declined, and one steady. BPCL, Cipla, Dr Reddys, HDFC Life, and Power Grid Corporation of India were the top five gainers. Hindalco, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Adani Enterprises, ICICI Bank, and TCS were the top five laggards in early trade.

“Today the focus of the market will be on the opening of the four IPOs. A lot of money is likely to go into the high-quality Tata Technology IPO. Investors can continue to accumulate high-quality large-caps, particularly in banking and autos where the margin of safety is high,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Several initial public offerings (IPOs) will also be available for subscription on Indian stock exchanges this week. Shares of Fedbank Financial Services, Flair Writing Industries, Tata Technologies, Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency (IREDA), and Gandhar Oil Refinery are reportedly up for subscription.

Indian stocks have a steady start to the new week

November 20, 2023, 12:58 pm

Due to mixed signals from US global benchmark markets and uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy rates, Indian stock indices began the new week mostly unchanged. Less than 0.1% separated India’s Sensex and Nifty indexes from their Friday closing at the opening bell. Coal India, Divis Labs, Apollo Hospitals, HCL Technologies, and NTPC were the top five gainers among the Nifty 50 stocks, while the top five losers were Axis Bank, Nestle India, Mahindra and Mahindra, Kotak Mahindra Bank, and Asian Paints. The top gainers among the sectoral indices were Nifty IT, Nifty realty, Nifty pharma, and Nifty PSU bank, while the top loser was Nifty private bank.

“Our view is that the overall market situation is positive, but due to a temporary overbought situation, we may see some range-bound action,” said Shrikant Chouhan – Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
Till last week, markets extended their bullish tone for the third successive week and gained over a per cent.
“Global cues are largely dictating the trend and we expect this trend to continue in the coming week as well. Among all the major indices, the US markets are showing noticeable strength and have recovered considerably in the last three weeks,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking.

Indian stocks in green after hitting a four-week low

September 29, 2023, 11:33 am

Following a nearly four-week low the previous session, Indian stock indices crept moderately higher on Friday morning, tracking Asian counterparts and reasonably robust overnight US market indications.
The benchmark Sensex and Nifty were both up 0.2% from their Thursday closes. This morning’s leading movers were the Nifty metal, pharma, and PSU bank sectoral indices.

“The ‘triple whammy’ of up-trending dollar, US bond yields and Brent crude is showing signs of easing. If this trend continues it will facilitate a recovery in markets. Stability in the US market yesterday also can be a supportive factor,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Lately, the indices slumped sharply after the US central bank, while keeping its interest rate steady in the September meeting, hinted that it may again hike rates going ahead if need be, in its fight against inflation.

Rising global crude oil prices and the resulting strengthening of the US currency weighed on financial markets as well.
Investors will keenly scrutinize the RBI’s monetary policy meeting, which is set for October 4-6. In a regular fiscal year, the RBI has six bi-monthly meetings to deliberate on interest rates, money supply, inflation outlook, and different macroeconomic variables.

Indian stocks back in green after losing straight day losses

September 22, 2023, 11:24 am

The Indian stock indices began trading on Friday with a small gain after engaging in a third straight session of selling.

Sensex was just 0.1 per cent higher at 66,297.35 points, while Nifty was 0.04 per cent higher at 19,750.45 points. So far this week, they have however fallen over 2 per cent on cumulative basis.

The indices fell precipitously on Thursday after the US central bank hinted that it might raise rates again soon if necessary to combat inflation, even though it kept them unchanged at its September meeting.

“The Fed’s hawkish pause message has created a global risk-averse sentiment in global equity markets,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Rising global crude oil prices and subsequent strengthening of the US dollar also weighed on the financial markets.
Siddhartha Khemka, Head – Retail Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services, said, “Market fell by 2.2 per cent in the last three days amid profit booking at higher levels. Uncertain global cues and persistent selling by FIIs are likely to keep markets under pressure in the near term. It would be better to prefer defensive sectors for some time until the market stabilizes.”

Indian stocks continue to decline; look to US Fed policy decision for new cues

September 20, 2023, 1:09 pm

Indian stock indices sharply declined on Wednesday, extending losses from the previous session due to weak overnight US markets, rising crude oil prices worldwide, and a stronger US dollar.

Sensex was at 67,213.98 points, down 382.87 points or 0.57 per cent, and Nifty was at 20,024.60 points, down 108.70 points or 0.54 per cent at the opening bell. India stock exchanges were closed yesterday for trading on the occasion of Ganesh Chaturthi.
On Monday, Indian stock indices closed in the red, with the benchmarks largely witnessing profit booking. Investors may have taken some money off the table after the indices hit their fresh highs last week.

Indian stocks subdued despite reaching record highs

September 18, 2023, 11:19 am

The benchmark Indian stock indices saw mild profit taking as they opened the week slightly lower. The indices reached their new highs last week, which may have caused some investors to remove some funds from the market. Due in large part to solid cues from US markets and consistent fund inflows by foreign portfolio investors, Indian stock indices reached new highs on Friday. Also on Thursday, they experienced new highs.

At the opening bell this morning, Sensex was at 67,728.52 points, down 0.16 per cent, and Nifty at 20,176.80 points, down 0.077 per cent.
This week, investors are likely to tread carefully of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s meeting scheduled Tuesday-Wednesday. The US central bank in its July meeting raised its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points, the highest in the past 22 years at 5.25-5.5 per cent, in its fight against soaring inflation and bringing it back to 2 per cent.

Indian stocks continue to rise with all sectoral indices in green

September 5, 2023, 10:44 am

The majority of sectoral indices tracked in the green in early trade on Tuesday, as Indian stock indices continued to hold steady. The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at 65,775.44 and 19,579.00, respectively, up 0.2-0.3% from the previous day.

“A significant trend in the market is the strength in IT index which is up 4.2 per cent in a week. Mid-cap IT has been doing well and now large-caps like HCL Tech, Infosys and Wipro have joined the rally. The order pipeline of IT companies is expected to improve on the back of the expected soft landing of the US economy,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Indian stock markets finally ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week.

The Indian economy’s strong 7.8% GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2023–2024 is likely to have boosted investor confidence recently. India continues to have the fastest-growing major economy, with a GDP growth of 7.8%. In light of this, Morgan Stanley has increased their economic growth forecast for India for the fiscal year 2024 after data from the April-June quarter showed the country expanded at its fastest rate in a year. The international investment bank increased its growth prediction from its initial estimate of 6.2 percent to 6.4 percent.

Indian stocks return to the green after a multiple-week losing streak

September 4, 2023, 11:24 am

All sectoral indices in India’s stock market opened positively on Monday as the market continued to advance from the previous week. According to Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking, markets last week gained almost 1% after a five-week losing streak.

Benchmark Sensex and Nifty were at 65,603.39 and 19,509.95 points, up 0.33 per cent and 0.38 per cent, respectively. Nifty Metal, Nifty IT, and Nifty PSU bank indices were the top movers this morning.
Indian economy witnessing a firm GDP growth rate of 7.8 per cent in the first quarter (April-June) of 2023-24 is likely to have improved investors’ sentiment lately. With a GDP growth of 7.8 per cent, India continues to be the fastest-growing major economy.
Against this backdrop, Morgan Stanley has upwardly revised their economic growth forecast for India for fiscal year 2024 after April-June quarter data showed it grew at its quickest pace in a year. The multinational investment bank raised growth forecast to 6.4 per cent from its earlier estimate of 6.2 per cent.

Notably, in the middle of July, the Sensex first crossed the 67,000 threshold. The bull run in Indian stocks was subsequently fueled by a strong global economy, a strong global stock market, and a relatively moderated inflation rate. According to data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL), foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to be net buyers in Indian stock markets for the sixth consecutive month as of August.

Indian stocks remain stable ; no immediate triggers for sharp movement

August 23, 2023, 11:04 am

On Wednesday, the Indian stock indices maintained their steady trading pace. Sensex and Nifty were only 0.07 percent lower than the previous closing at the opening bell.

“Now, there are no immediate triggers which can take the market sharply up or down. Investors may wait and watch for new data expected this weekend from the U S. Since the dollar index and the US bond yields remain high, FIIs will not be strong buyers in the market,” said VK Vijayakumar, chief investment strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the sixth straight month, according to data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL). But the quantum of inflow has slowed in the current month.
FPIs bought Indian stocks worth Rs 7,936 crore, Rs 11,631 crore, Rs 43,838 crore, Rs 47,148 crore, and Rs 46,618 crore in March, April, May, June, and July, respectively, data showed. In August, they have thus far bought assets worth Rs 7,691 crore with a week still to go.

In the Indian stock markets so far in 2023, foreign investors have invested Rs 130,716 crore. The recent inflow of foreign capital into Indian stocks helped to boost the overall market as the indices have been periodically reaching new peaks. Notably, in the middle of July, the Sensex first crossed the 67,000 threshold. The bull run in Indian stocks was subsequently fueled by a strong global economy, a strong global stock market, and a relatively moderated inflation rate.

Indian stocks rise after three straight session losses

August 4, 2023, 10:51 am

The majority of the fresh buying on Friday helped Indian stock indices trade slightly higher after experiencing intense selling pressure over the previous two to three sessions.
At the time this report was being written, the Sensex and Nifty were both 0.3-0.4% higher than where they had closed the day before. All Nifty sectoral indexes were in the green in line with the wider indices, with the exception of Nifty oil & gas, Nifty media, and Nifty auto.

The stock indices declined over the past two-odd sessions due to weak global markets, besides fresh selling by foreign portfolio investors.
Foreign portfolio investors were net buyers for the past five months before turning sellers in August. Data showed they sold stocks worth Rs 2,250 crore thus far in August.
“…FPIs may continue to sell or at least refrain from buying aggressively,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
“This is the time to nibble at high-quality large-caps, particularly in banking, capital goods, construction and autos.”

Indian stocks dip sharply on weak global market cues

August 2, 2023, 3:30 pm

Wednesday saw a sharp decline in Indian stock indices as traders followed negative cues from overnight US markets. The Sensex and Nifty were almost 1% lower than where they had closed the previous day when this report was being written. All of the Nifty sectoral indices were down, with the most significant declines occurring in the Nifty auto, Nifty metal, Nifty PSU bank, and Nifty private bank.

Coming to specific stocks, NTPC, Hero Motocorp, Tata Steel, Tata Motors, and BPCL were the top five losers among the Nifty 50 group, while Divis Labs, Nestle India, Hindustan Unilever, Asian Paints, and HDFC Life were among the top gainers.

The Indian stock indices reached new highs almost two weeks ago, and the benchmark Sensex broke through 67,000 for the first time. The latest bull run in Indian stocks was fueled by a steady influx of foreign portfolio funds (net buyers in Indian stock markets for the fifth straight month), a strong economic outlook, strong global markets, and a relatively moderating inflation rate.

But over the past few sessions, there has been a consistent but steady decline in both indices, which can be partly attributed to investors taking profits out of their positions due to concerns over exorbitant stock valuations that analysts have raised.

Indian stocks continue to remain stable ; US Fed policy meeting outcome eyed

July 25, 2023, 10:45 am

The lack of new bets at higher levels was a major factor in the Indian stock indices remaining largely stable for the second straight day. Some investors may be taking profits now if they have recently accumulated gains.

Benchmark Sensex and Nifty were 10 points higher each this morning. Among the Nifty 50 companies, 30 were in the green and the rest in the red. Hindalco, Ultratech Cements, JSW Steel, Tata Motors, and NTPC were the top gainers among the Nifty 50 companies, whereas ITC, SBI Life, Asian Paints, Axis Bank, and Larsen and Toubro (L&T) were the top losers.

Several analysts have been pointing out that any further rally from the current peak seems unlikely as valuations were higher, and that is what seems to have been happening in the past two-odd sessions. The indices had touched all-time highs early last week.

In the past month, the indices — Sensex and Nifty — have cumulatively gained about 6 percentage points.
“FPI (foreign portfolio investors) flows have slowed down. In the last two days, FPIs have sold stocks worth Rs 2081 crores indicating buying exhaustion. This is a normal response to the rising dollar index which has moved up to 101.4 from the recent low of 99. Even though Nifty is showing signs of resilience, it is unlikely to race to the 20,000 level in the next few days, given the rising dollar and declining FPI inflows,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Overall, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the fifth straight month in July, according to data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL).

Indian stocks begin a new week steadily; attention is focused on US Fed policy

July 24, 2023, 11:00 am

The majority of the stability in the Indian stock indices on Monday morning was due to low bets at higher levels, with a slight downward bias. Some investors might still be taking profits from recent investments. When this report was being written, the Sensex and Nifty were down just 36 points and 4 points, respectively. The indices experienced losses on Thursday and Friday as a result of investors taking profits after the most recent bull run, which saw the indices reach all-time highs early last week.

Several analysts have been pointing out that any further rally from the current peak seems unlikely as valuations were higher, and that is what seems to have been happening in the past two-odd sessions.
In the past month, the indices — Sensex and Nifty — have cumulatively gained about 6 percentage points.

The most recent bull run in Indian stocks was fueled by a steady inflow of foreign portfolio funds, a solid economic outlook, a stable global economy, and a relatively moderate inflation rate. According to information provided by the National Securities Depository (NSDL), foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to be net buyers on the Indian stock markets for the fifth consecutive month.

On July 25–26, the US Federal Reserve will meet to discuss monetary policy. In its most recent meeting, the monetary policy committee of the US Federal Reserve paused the benchmark interest rate. The policy rate, which was close to zero following the COVID-19 outbreak, has been kept at 5.0–5.25%. With the exception of the most recent pause, the US central bank has increased interest rates for ten consecutive months, which was necessary to combat skyrocketing inflation.

Indian stocks extend losses on continued profit booking

July 21, 2023, 12:04 pm

Indian stock indices traded heavily in the red on Friday morning, mainly as a result of investors continuing to book profits following the most recent bull run—the indices had reached record highs earlier this week.

Several analysts had been pointing out that any further rally from the current peak seems unlikely as valuations were higher, and that is what seems to have been happening in the past two sessions. Benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty were 1 per cent lower each at the time of writing this report. Barring two-to-three Nifty sectoral indices, all others declined today. Nifty consumer durables, Nifty oil and gas, and Nifty IT dipped the most.

In the past one-month, the indices — Sensex and Nifty — had cumulatively gained about 6 percentage points.
The consistent inflow of foreign portfolio funds, firm economic outlook, firm global markets, and a relative moderation in inflation contributed to the latest bull run in Indian stocks.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the fifth straight month, according to data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL).

FPIs bought Indian stocks worth Rs 7,936 crore, Rs 11,631 crore, Rs 43,838 crore, and Rs 47,148 crore in March, April, May, and June, respectively. The trend is also firm in July as they bought about Rs 37,000 crore worth of equities.
“At high valuations, some negative trigger can lead to sharp correction. But in the near-term the party may continue,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Indian stocks fall marginally on profit booking after hitting multiple highs

July 20, 2023, 10:49 am

The main reason for the slight decline in Indian stock indices on Thursday morning was profit taking following the most recent bull run. Sensex and Nifty both fell by 0.2%. Yesterday, the indices reached yet another new high, and the benchmark Sensex went over 67,000. With Nifty Bank, Nifty Financial Services, Nifty Media, Nifty PSU Bank, Nifty Consumer Durables, and Nifty Oil and Gas rising the most, all of the Nifty sectoral indices were in the green. The indices, Sensex and Nifty, collectively increased by about 6 percentage points over the previous month.

Several analysts have pointed out that any further rally from the current levels is unlikely as valuations are higher.
“Even when the market is scaling new highs and the undercurrent is positive, there are strong views that the current high valuations cannot be sustained for long. It is important to understand that the DIIs (domestic institutional investors) are not bullish about the market at the current elevated valuations,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
The consistent inflow of foreign portfolio funds, firm economic outlook, firm global markets, and a relative moderation in inflation contributed to the latest bull run in Indian stocks.

According to information provided by the National Securities Depository (NSDL), foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have continued to be net buyers on the Indian stock markets for the fifth consecutive month. In March, April, May, and June, respectively, FPIs purchased Indian stocks for amounts of Rs 7,936 crore, Rs 11,631 crore, Rs 43,838 crore, and Rs 47,148 crore. They purchased shares worth Rs 36,971 crore in July, continuing the trend.

Indian stocks increase marginally; Q1 earnings key monitorable going ahead

July 10, 2023, 10:53 am

The Indian stock indices increased slightly on Monday morning, but analysts noted that it is unlikely that the market will continue to rise from its current levels. Notably, the Sensex appears to have stabilized at about 65,000 points. This morning, the benchmark Sensex and Nifty both increased by 0.3%. The most recent bull run in Indian stocks was supported by a steady inflow of foreign capital, a positive outlook for the economy, and a moderating inflation rate. Reliance Industries, Bajaj Auto, and HDFC Life were among the top gainers in Nifty 50, while NSE data showed HCL Technologies, Bajaj Finance, and Titan among the losers.
On Friday, Indian stock markets witnessed profit booking after going through a consistent bull run in the past eight-odd trading sessions.
“After the recent surge that took the benchmark indices to new highs, the market is likely to move to a consolidation mode,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Sticky core inflation in the US is also likely to restrain the ongoing rally in the Indian market, added Vijayakumar. “In brief, the market is likely to move into a consolidation phase.”
Meanwhile, the shares of IdeaForge Technology, which listed on the stock exchange on Friday with stellar gains, were about 8 per cent lower this morning, possibly on profit booking.
It had listed on the stock markets at Rs 1,305 against its issue price of about Rs 672, thus accumulating 94 per cent listing gains for the investors. IdeaForge Technology, a startup incorporated in 2007, is into drone manufacturing.
For fresh cues in overall domestic markets going ahead, investors await April-June earnings data of Indian companies, expected to pour in starting this week.
Retail inflation data for June due next week will be another key monitorable for investors.
Retail inflation in India further eased in May to 4.25 per cent, hitting a two-year low. It was at 4.7 per cent in April and 5.7 per cent the previous month. India’s sharp decline in inflation figures could be attributed to RBI’s consistent tightening of monetary policy since mid-2022. Retail inflation in India exceeded the RBI’s 6% target for three consecutive quarters and only managed to return to the RBI’s safe level in November 2022. If the CPI-based inflation is outside the 2–6% range for three consecutive quarters, the flexible inflation targeting framework considers the RBI to have failed in managing price increases.

Indian stocks remain stable; Q1 company earnings to give fresh directions

July 6, 2023, 11:10 am

Indian equities were mostly unchanged thursday morning, as investors appeared to be hesitant to put more money into the markets in the short term. The stock indices have been hitting all-time highs and are currently at their highest levels.
At the time of writing, the benchmark Sensex and Nifty were both down 0.1%. Last week, the indices gained nearly 3% on average, the most in months, and reached new all-time highs. Notably, the Sensex reached 65,000 for the first time this week. The consistent inflow of foreign funds, firm economic outlook, and moderation in inflation supported Indian stocks recently.
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the fourth straight month, according to data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL). FPIs bought Indian stocks worth Rs 7,936 crore, Rs 11,631 crore, Rs 43,838 crore, and Rs 47,148 crore in March, April, May, and June, respectively, data showed.
“An important trend in the market is the surge in retail investor participation as indicated by the sharp increase in new demat accounts ( 2.36 million) opened in June. New retail investors jumping on to the market bandwagon normally happens at the peak of a rally. This is a sign for caution,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services. “Two-wheeler sales in June indicate that demand continues to be a problem in rural areas. In brief, the macroeconomic scenario, though good, is not so bullish as to warrant continuation of the rally, which has already run a bit ahead of fundamentals.”
“Investors should not chase low-grade small-cap stocks at this juncture. Stay invested in high-quality large-caps. Wait for the Q1 results for direction.”
US stocks ended lower on Wednesday with the S&P 500 snapping a three-day winning streak after the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting showed almost all participants expected additional interest-rate increases. In its most recent meeting on wednesday, the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee halted the key interest rate. The policy rate has been kept at 5.0-5.25 percent, which was close to zero following the outbreak of COVID-19.
With the exception of the recent hiatus, the US central bank has raised interest rates for the eleventh time in a row, as required in the fight against rising inflation.

Stock buyers in India book profits after this week’s peak in the indices

June 23, 2023, 11:09 am

Indian stock indices traded in the red on friday morning partly due to profit booking after they peaked this week and on indications that the global fight against inflation, as indicated by various central banks, is far from over. The current high market valuations may have temporarily discouraged investors. Benchmark Sensex and Nifty were down between 0.4 and 0.5 percent as of the time this piece was being written. The benchmark market, the Sensex, reached an all-time high on wednesday after many sessions of strong trading.
“The market’s momentum has slowed down since the Sensex reached record highs. Globally, the markets are not now in a positive attitude. According to VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist of Geojit Financial Services, “the big wall of worry continues to the rising interest rates.” “The message from the leading central banks, reiterated by the Fed in its recent Congressional testimony, is that they will not let down on containing inflation and there is a long way to go before the inflation target of 2 per cent is reached,” Vijayakumar added.
In India too, RBI indicated that the fight against the price rise is not yet over but its job is half done.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said bringing back inflation levels in India to the comfortable range is like a job half finished, adding that the fight against the price rise will have to be in a way where inflation figures are aligned around 4.0 per cent on a durable basis.
Retail inflation currently in India is a notch above the ideal 4 per cent target, against the tolerable window of 2-6 per cent.
The inflation in the US and India is moderating, but what is to be seen is whether this trend is sustainable.
“We’re seeing profit taking at higher levels due to feeble global cues but the tone is still positive,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
According to financial services company Emkay Wealth Management, all three primary asset classes — stocks, fixed income and gold are in play – but they believe some select small and mid-cap stocks can outperform as the valuation gap with their larger peers closes. Emkay Wealth stated that now that the apex of the cycle of rising commodity prices has passed, it prefers structural growth firms above cyclical ones.
According to Ashish Ranawade, Head of Products at Emkay Wealth Management, “Asset allocation is always the key to generating steady returns. Among the various asset classes we are seeing a lot of traction and opportunities in the small-cap space in India. Also, manufacturing and consumer-focused companies are expected to do well in the next few years due to favourable government policies and favourable demographics at play.”

Indian stocks drop on profit booking; defence stocks on radar as PM Modi visits US

June 20, 2023, 10:36 am

Tuesday morning’s trading in Indian stock indices was mostly affected by investors taking profits after gains. At the time this story was being written, both the Sensex and the Nifty were down roughly 0.4% each.
Strong fundamentals, such as a solid GDP outlook, moderate inflation, and robust foreign investor purchases, are advantageous for markets, though. The stock indices are very close to reaching record highs. Investor mood during the previous several days was bolstered by the US central bank’s most recent monetary policy position, which eventually paused the interest rate after raising it for more than a year. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s US visit and possible defence collaboration between the two countries have brought back focus to defence stocks in India.
Defence stocks have performed quite strong, in fact, many turned multi-bagger, over the past few years due to the government’s aggressive indigenous manufacturing push.
“Markets are shying away from the record high due to intermediate volatility in the banking majors. We recommend maintaining a positive tone and focusing on other key sectors like auto, FMCG, energy, and selectively in midcap & smallcap space for fresh longs,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Further, the Indian rupee has been exhibiting strength recently, supported by strong foreign fund inflows and favourable domestic macroeconomic data. Today, Rupee traded below 82 per US dollar. Indian equities avoided closing at record highs due to profit booking, which was mostly driven by private banks. According to Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, “Global markets also took a pause after a strong gain last week as investors anticipated China’s rate decision and the Fed chair’s testimony.

Indian stocks rise as markets benefit from the US Fed’s interest rate pause

June 16, 2023, 10:23 am

In response to the US central bank’s most recent monetary policy decision, which finally paused the interest rate after raising it for more than a year, Indian market indices traded higher on friday morning. Sensex and Nifty indices were 0.4 per cent higher each at the time of writing this report. “There are two factors – one positive and the other negative- that are impacting the market trend now. The positive factor is the favourable global cues. The mother market the US has shrugged off the Fed’s ‘hawkish pause’ and has moved forward,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee paused the key interest rate in its latest meeting on Wednesday. The policy rate has been maintained at 5.0-5.25 per cent, which was near zero after the outbreak of COVID-19.
Barring the latest pause, the US central bank has hiked the interest rate for the tenth consecutive time which was necessitated in the fight against soaring inflation.
Another significant factor that supports Indian stocks is that there are signals from the manufacturing sector showing a clear revival. Overall, the Indian market sentiment has been positive after inflation continued to moderate, with consistent purchases by foreign portfolio investors and a strong growth outlook.
“This is the beginning of a cycle that can last 4 to 5 years. Capital goods will be major beneficiaries of this capex cycle,” add Vijayakumar.

Indian stocks saw a decline on Monday; eyes on May inflation data

June 12, 2023, 10:12 am

The Indian stock market indexes began the new week steadily, with investors primarily waiting for this week’s release of the May inflation figures before making any decisions. Benchmark Sensex and Nifty were trading just 13 points and 3 points higher from their previous closing, respectively. Retail inflation for May will be released at 5.30 pm today. Retail inflation or (Consumer Price Index) in India peaked at 7.8 per cent in April 2022 to an 18-month low of 4.7 per cent in April 2023, driven by a reduction in food and core inflation. In some advanced countries, inflation had in fact touched a multi-decade high and even breached the 10 per cent mark.
RBI’s consistent monetary policy tightening since mid-2022 could be attributed to the substantial decline in inflation numbers in India.
“For a long time, Indian markets (Nifty) have been consolidating in the 18,475-18,800 zones. The entire week is packed with events, including the release of Consumer Price Index inflation figures in India as well as the Industrial Index of Industrial Production statistics. Global attention will be focused on the Federal Reserve’s meeting, where a rate hike or pause will be closely monitored,” said Deven Mehata, Equity Research Analyst, at Choice Broking.
Overall Indian stocks have been buoyant over the past fortnight or so due to the continued inflow of foreign investments, relatively lower crude oil prices, more than estimated GDP numbers, and a consistent decline in inflation.
Foreign investors have remained net buyers in Indian stock markets for the fourth straight month now, data from the National Securities Depository (NSDL) revealed. They bought Indian stocks worth Rs 7,936 crore, Rs 11,631 crore, and Rs 43,838 in March, April, and May, respectively. So far in June, they have already bought assets worth Rs 9,788 crore.
“In May, globally, FPIs were big buyers in Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and India and big sellers in China. This trend continues in June also,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
“Sustained buying by FPIs has lifted the Nifty by around 10 per cent from the March lows and consequently, valuations, viewed from the short-term perspective, have become challenging. Therefore, FPI is likely to slow down in the coming days. They are likely to continue buying in financials and autos since the prospects of these sectors look promising,” added Vijayakumar.

All eyes are now focused on the US Fed’s policy decision, which is set on June 14.
The US monetary policy committee increased the benchmark interest rate by another 25 basis points to 5.0–5.25% in an effort to achieve inflation of 2% over the long term.
The tenth consecutive rate rise took place in May and was the same amount as the rate increase in March.

Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking, stated, “We feel the current outperformance may continue in the broader indices so continue to add quality stocks from midcap and smallcap space.”