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Jane Street Faces SEBI Crackdown for ₹36,500 Crore Market Manipulation in India

July 4, 2025, 6:58 pm

SEBI has initiated a significant crackdown against US-based trading behemoth Jane Street, alleging that it has been manipulating Indian markets to reap illegal returns. The regulator has suspended four Jane Street-associated entities from trading in India and asked them to give back ₹4,843 crore of suspected unlawful returns.

The company allegedly employed “pump-dump” strategies and expiry-day index manipulation to skew Nifty and Bank Nifty levels and generate gains on options trades. It has rebutted the allegations.

What Is Jane Street?

Jane Street is a proprietary quantitative trading firm established in 2000. Based in the US, it has more than 3,000 employees and offices across 45 countries. Its annual revenue was reported to be $20.5 billion in 2024. Its Asia presence, particularly Hong Kong, is growing very quickly.

How Jane Street is Operated in India?

During the period from January 2023 to March 2025, Jane Street made approximately ₹36,671 crore in India by trading in index options. SEBI has now marked ₹4,843 crore of this amount as illegal.

It initially caught the attention of Indians in 2023 when it sued hedge fund firm Millennium Management in a US court. That action reported Jane Street had made $1 billion in India alone on a high-frequency options trading strategy. Press reports in 2024 raised alarms about its trading conduct, and SEBI began a formal investigation.

What SEBI Found?

SEBI’s interim order accuses Jane Street of manipulating Nifty and Bank Nifty index levels on 21 expiry days between January 2023 and May 2025. The firm allegedly used two main tactics:

Morning Pump, Afternoon Dump: Jane Street bought large volumes of Bank Nifty stocks and futures in the morning, artificially pushing the index up. It then sold aggressively later, dragging the index down and creating misleading price signals.

Expiry Day Index Manipulation: On expiry days for options, it made huge trades close to closing times to distort index levels and affect options prices.

The outcome

₹44,358 crore earned from index options
₹7,208 crore in stock futures
₹191 crore lost in index futures
₹288 crore lost in cash market

All these losses notwithstanding, a net profit of ₹36,671 crore was made by Jane Street. SEBI regards ₹4,843 crore of this as illegal and has directed their disgorgement.

Action Taken by SEBI

SEBI has prohibited the following from the securities market:

JSI Investments
JSI2 Investments Pvt Ltd
Jane Street Singapore Pte Ltd
Jane Street Asia Trading

SEBI has also instructed banks to freeze withdrawals from such firms unless permitted by the regulator. The agency explained that Jane Street persisted in its trading practices even after being given a clear warning by NSE in February 2025. SEBI stated the firm demonstrated “clear disregard” for regulatory supervision and could not be regarded as a “good faith actor.”

Stock Market Tumbles as Trump Announces Steeper Steel Tariffs

June 2, 2025, 1:56 pm

Indian stock markets opened with a steep fall on Monday. The sharp drop followed renewed tariff threats from US President Donald Trump, which shook investor confidence.

As a result, the Sensex slipped more than 700 points to 80,688. Likewise, the Nifty plunged over 200 points to 24,538. This sharp decline came in the middle of India’s quarterly earnings season.

Foreign Outflows Deepen Market Pain

Moreover, foreign investors rushed to sell Indian stocks. On Friday alone, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded shares worth nearly ₹6,450 crore, according to exchange data.

Consequently, several major stocks suffered heavy losses. HDFC Bank, HCL Tech, Infosys, Tech Mahindra, and Tata Steel ranked among the worst performers. In contrast, Hindustan Unilever, Adani Ports, and Mahindra & Mahindra managed modest gains.

Global Cues Add to Pressure

In addition, weak global signals added pressure. Other Asian markets like Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and Shanghai also traded lower. Investors reacted to the fear of higher US steel tariffs.

Meanwhile, US markets ended mixed last week, which further contributed to the cautious sentiment in Asia.

Trump’s Tariff Threat Shakes Markets

Last week, Trump addressed a rally in Pennsylvania. During the speech, he announced plans to double import tariffs on steel and aluminium from 25% to 50%.

He said, “We are going to be imposing a 25 per cent increase. We’re going to bring it from 25 per cent to 50 per cent – the tariffs on steel into the United States of America, which will even further secure the steel industry in the United States.”

Furthermore, Trump accused China of going back on its commitments. He claimed Beijing had failed to roll back tariffs and trade restrictions as agreed.

Domestic Earnings May Offer Hope

Despite the negative global cues, experts say strong domestic earnings could support Indian markets in the short term. However, the immediate outlook remains cautious due to rising global trade tensions.

Ceasefire Boosts Markets: Sensex Jumps 1,800 Points, Nifty Surges 500

May 12, 2025, 12:21 pm

Markets in India opened the week with sharp gains after India and Pakistan agreed to a ceasefire on Saturday, May 10. The Sensex jumped 1,800 points while the Nifty rose 500 in early trade on Monday. Investors responded positively to easing border tensions, India’s strong military posture, and a surprise upgrade of the country’s sovereign rating by Morningstar DBRS.

The upbeat mood contrasted with last week’s heavy losses in Pakistan’s stock market, which saw its biggest single-day fall after India’s retaliatory airstrikes on terrorist and military targets in Pakistan and Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK).

Ceasefire and Market Reactions

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan, following a week of military airstrikes and retaliatory actions, brought a welcome sense of stability to the markets. In the days leading up to the ceasefire, India had carried out targeted airstrikes against terrorist sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (PoK). In retaliation, Pakistan attempted missile and drone strikes on Indian cities.

However, India’s military response severely impacted Pakistan’s defense infrastructure, with airbases, radar sites, and air defense units being hit. As a result, Pakistan reached out to India with a ceasefire request on May 10.

Following the ceasefire announcement, the Indian stock market experienced a sharp rebound. The Sensex soared by 1,800 points, while Nifty rose by 500 points. Key stocks like Axis Bank, Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, and Bajaj Finance led the rally on the Sensex. Similarly, Adani Enterprises, Jio Financial Services, and Shriram Finance were the top gainers on Nifty.

Boosted Investor Confidence

Investor confidence was further bolstered by India’s sovereign rating upgrade by Morningstar DBRS, which moved India’s rating from BBB (low) to BBB (stable). Devarsh Vakil, Head of Prime Research at HDFC Securities, pointed out that this upgrade, even amidst ongoing geopolitical tensions with Pakistan, added significant positive sentiment to the Indian market.

Devarsh Vakil noted that the upgrade signals a more stable economic environment, which reassured investors and contributed to the market surge. The combination of the ceasefire and improved economic outlook provided a strong catalyst for the rally.

Disruptions and Reactions in Pakistan

While the Indian market saw a major recovery, Pakistan’s market faced a severe blow. The heightened conflict and airstrikes resulted in the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) experiencing its biggest single-day drop, falling by a staggering 6,482 points. The impact of India’s military actions on Pakistan’s infrastructure created significant uncertainty, leading to investor panic and the sharp decline in stock values.

Despite the market disruptions, there was no widespread panic among Indian investors. The situation remained relatively controlled, with investors largely remaining confident in India’s resilience and military strategy.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan may bring temporary relief to the stock markets, but geopolitical tensions in the region remain high. Investors will continue to monitor the situation closely, especially with the potential for future flare-ups.

However, the rebound in the Indian market demonstrates that investor sentiment can recover quickly, particularly when backed by strong economic indicators and positive geopolitical developments.

Market Optimism and Confidence

The Sensex and Nifty’s sharp surge after the India-Pakistan ceasefire demonstrates the strong link between geopolitics and financial markets. As India and Pakistan move toward de-escalation, market participants remain hopeful for continued stability.

The Indian economy’s resilient performance, even in the face of military conflicts, and the recent sovereign rating upgrade have played a crucial role in boosting investor confidence.

Indian Stock Market Surge Over 2% as Auto Sector Leads

April 15, 2025, 11:33 am

Indian stock markets rallied more than 2% on Tuesday, following gains in Asian counterparts and a sharp rally in automobile stocks. The steep rise came after US President Donald Trump’s suggestion of rolling back earlier levied car import tariffs. This suggestion fueled global hopes, particularly in the automobile industry.

The Nifty rose by 455.90 points to 23,284.45, while the Sensex rose 1,578.84 points to close at 76,736.09. Auto stocks were the best performers with Tata Motors and Maruti Suzuki recording healthy gains. Trump’s erratic trade policy still spooked investors. The US Federal Reserve calmed investors, by signaling possible rate cuts.

Nifty, Sensex Post Strong Gains

Major Indian stock market indexes surged strongly. Nifty rose by 455.90 points, or nearly 2%, to 23,284.45. Sensex surged by 1,578.84 points, or 2.10%, and closed at 76,736.09. The advance was indicative of wider upbeat sentiment based on overseas cues and auto sector strength.

Asian markets also in green

Asian markets were strong following a volatile week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 increased 0.89%. Singapore’s Straits Times increased 1.4%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng inched up 0.08%. South Korea’s KOSPI increased 0.7%, and Jakarta Composite increased 1.5%. Sydney, Taipei, Singapore, and Manila markets also traded higher.

Auto stocks lead the charge

Auto shares lifted market sentiment after Trump signaled potential support for the auto companies battered by his 25% tariff on car imports. Japan’s Mazda and Toyota rose 5%, Nissan increased over 3%, and Hyundai increased over 4%. On the Nifty, the Auto index jumped 3.27% to 21,220.40, higher by 671.75 points. Tata Motors rose 4.85% to ₹623.90, and Maruti Suzuki increased 2.08% to ₹11,840.00.

Trade war fears remain

Even with the relief, Trump’s erratic trade policy spooks investors. The US exempted smartphones, laptops, and semiconductors from fresh tariffs last week. But Trump hinted that the move could be temporary. Speculation about new tariffs on tech and pharma is keeping markets in check.

South Korea’s chip boost adds to optimism

South Korea revealed a $4.9 billion initiative to develop its chip sector. The initiative pushed up Samsung and SK hynix shares, contributing to regional market euphoria.

US Fed Governor Christopher Waller intervened to calm investor fears. He indicated that the Fed would be able to support rate cuts if necessary. If Trump reimposes tariffs from his April 2 “Liberation Day” action, the Fed stands ready to act to defend the economy.

Indian Stock Market Roars Back, Regains ₹12,000 Cr in a Day

April 8, 2025, 1:35 pm

The Indian stock market rebound on Tuesday was a welcome relief after Monday’s historic crash precipitated by new US tariffs. Driven by a 1,283-point rally in the Sensex and a 415-point rise in the Nifty, the rebound allowed investors to regain some confidence. Although volatility is still an issue, general global cues and India’s good fundamentals provided comfort that the panic could be fleeting. The rebound also comes at a time when there are simmering US-China trade tensions, with President Trump signaling the possibility of raising tariffs on Chinese imports by 50%, creating anxiety in markets.

Global Sentiment Lifts Dalal Street

The rally on Tuesday was not triggered by local drivers. Peer markets in the region such as Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and South Korea’s Kospi recorded robust gains after the fall on Monday. These signals lifted Dalal Street investor sentiment. Back home, almost all 30 Sensex stocks were in the positive, led by TCS alone. Top gainers were Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, and Tata Steel. The bounce was also aided by robust DII inflows, which beat foreign outflows. While FIIs offloaded more than ₹9,000 crore worth of equities on Monday, DIIs purchased more than ₹12,000 crore, as per exchange data.

Indian Market Bounces Back with Conviction

The bounce came in the face of persistent concerns over US-China trade wars. Trump’s threat of tariffs can hurt Chinese exports severely, but analysts feel Indian stock market will remain insulated—due to ongoing bilateral negotiations with Washington. India’s economic fundamentals are also keeping investor jitters in check. The Economic Survey projected 6.3%–6.8% GDP growth for FY25, while the government is expecting 6.5% in FY26. Meanwhile, Brent crude’s minor increase still keeps oil prices in check for India.

The larger worry today is not tariffs, but volatility. The India VIX rose almost 70%, indicating consistent jitters. While experts expect resistance at 22,660 on the Nifty, long-term gains will hinge on worldwide tranquility and stable policy cues. For the moment, India has avoided a deeper rout—but investors must prepare for a rough ride.

Investors Lose ₹19 Lakh Crore: The 5 Blackest Days of the Indian Stock Market

April 7, 2025, 4:44 pm

In what is being referred to as a “Black Monday” for the Indian Stock Market, investors saw one of the sharpest one-day crashes in years, erasing a whopping Rs 19 lakh crore from the market. The meltdown was triggered by the announcement of broad import tariffs by former US President Donald Trump on more than 180 nations, setting global financial markets in a tizzy.

The BSE Sensex nose-dived by 3,914.75 points or 5.19%, beginning the day at 71,449.94, while Nifty 50 fell 1,146.05 points or 5%, beginning the day at 21,758.40. Every sector ended in the red deep, with IT, pharma, metal, and auto stocks bearing the worst brunt.

Market Cap Erosion and Sectoral Bloodbath

The market capitalization of BSE-listed firms collectively fell from Rs 403.34 lakh crore to Rs 383.81 lakh crore, a loss of almost Rs 19 lakh crore in hours. Mid-cap and small-cap indices fell even more precipitously, further heightening investor misery across the board.

Asian markets such as Japan and Hong Kong and Wall Street also saw sharp falls, contributing to the selling pressure in Indian stock market. Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) dominated the selling, offloading huge volumes of stock.

Tariff Mayhem and International Apprehension

Trump’s threat of new import tariffs has revived apprehensions over a worldwide trade war. Experts feel that this can severely jolt international trade flows and company profits, causing extended market volatility.

“The market has responded sharply to the threat of renewed trade war, which has the potential to slow economic growth and put earnings under heavy pressure,” said a senior brokerage analyst.

What’s Next for Indian Stock Market?

Market analysts caution that if fears of a trade war increase further, Indian markets can expect further drops in the near term. Any fiscal or monetary support from the Reserve Bank of India or the government could, however, help stabilize the trend.

Long-term investors might take this drop as an opportunity to buy, but short-term traders can expect volatility to continue.

Not the First Time: Biggest Crash in Indian Stock Market

This is not the first time that the Indian stock market have experienced a spectacular crash. These are five of the largest single-day market crashes in Indian history:

1. Harshad Mehta Scam Crash (1992)

The Indian economy received its initial major shake-up in 1992 when the Harshad Mehta scam. The Sensex lost 570 points or 12.7% on 28th April, 1992. This led to major reforms in India’s financial sector, such as increased powers for SEBI as a regulator.

2. Ketan Parekh Scam Crash (2001)

The market was shaken once again in 2001 by another broker, Ketan Parekh’s manipulation scandal. The SENSEX went down by 176 points or 4.13% on March 2, 2001. It coincided with poor global leads and the Gujarat earthquake aftermath.

3. Election Shock Crash (2004)

On May 17, 2004, the Sensex plummeted by 11.1% on the shock defeat of the NDA by the UPA in the general elections. Panic selling compelled the exchange to suspend trade twice during one day. Only after the UPA asserted that it would stay committed to economic reforms did the market regain its confidence.

4. Global Financial Crisis Crash (2008)

Lehman Brothers’ collapse set off a meltdown all over the world, with Sensex plunging 1,408 points or 7.4% on January 21, 2008. In the next few months, the index declined almost 60% from its height, which is one of the worst bear periods in the history of Indian markets.

5. COVID-19 Pandemic Crash (2020)

On March 23, 2020, panic over the COVID-19 nationwide lockdown led to the Sensex falling 3,935 points or 13.2%, the largest single-day fall in Indian stock market history.

Conclusion

As markets absorb the ripple impact of Trump’s tariff announcement, investors are on tenterhooks. With global uncertainty and volatility increasing, Indian markets may continue to be under pressure in the days ahead. Stakeholders now turn to policy actions by central banks and governments to soothe the storm.

For long-term investors, history has proved that market crashes, though painful, tend to create opportunities. But caution is the need of the hour.

Stock Market Bleeds: India Drops 4% But Still Holds Stronger

April 7, 2025, 3:17 pm

The Indian stock market experienced a volatile day on April 7, 2025, as the Sensex and Nifty 50 fell more than 4%. Nevertheless, in a day of general financial fear, the Indian share market was still able to outperform most major Asian indexes. The BSE Sensex fell by 3,230 points, closing at 72,134.56, while the Nifty 50 declined 1,034 points, closing at 21,870.10. Although the losses were severe, India’s stock market demonstrated some resilience in the face of a vicious regional sell-off brought about by fears over global trade.

Indian Stock Market Outperforms Regional Collapse

The Sensex started at a low 71,449.94 but recovered some of its losses during the day. The Nifty 50 too began weak at 21,758.40 but recovered slightly. Top Sensex draggers were Tata Steel, Tata Motors, L&T, HCLTech, and Kotak Mahindra Bank. On the Nifty 50, the losers’ list was led by Trent, JSW Steel, Shriram Finance, and Tata Motors.

Despite these losses, analysts cited India’s relatively stable stock market framework, better domestic fundamentals, and less foreign investor dependence. In contrast to markets such as Taiwan and Hong Kong, India’s retail investor base is also considered less speculative, serving to cushion the blow.

Asia’s Stock Markets Reeling From Tariff Shockwaves

In Asia, the stock markets suffered the greater damage. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index plummeted almost 13%—its worst in decades. Taiwan’s Taiex plummeted almost 10% in initial trade and fluctuated about a 9% loss by afternoon. Japan’s Nikkei declined more than 7%, highlighting the panicky nature of the region.

The sell-off followed new US tariffs imposed by then-President Donald Trump, reviving concerns of a trade war. Global investors quickly withdrew funds from risky assets, causing a sharp shock in Asian stock markets.

Stock Market Volatility: India Holds Ground For Now

Though the Indian stock market performed better than its peers, there is uncertainty ahead. As global tensions escalate, currency volatility and trade disruptions lie ahead, investors will likely continue to face pressure. Don’t be complacent, say experts, stay vigilant to changes in policy both internationally and in India.

The Indian stock market is low—but far from out. The next few weeks will prove if its strength lasts.

Here’s What Indian Stock Market Dipping 1,064.12 Points Means For Businesses

December 17, 2024, 5:28 pm

On Tuesday India’s trade deficit surged to a record high affecting investor sentiment. The stock market ended deep in the red, with benchmark indices witnessing sharp declines amid concerns over weak trade data and a surging trade deficit.

The Sensex plunged 1,064.12 points, or 1.3 per cent, to close at 80,684.45, while the Nifty fell by 332.25 points, settling at 24,336.00.

Out of the 50 Nifty companies, only two stocks advanced, while 48 recorded losses. Among the gainers were Copla and ITC, which managed to buck the downward trend. However, the session was marred by steep losses for top laggards, including Shriram Finance, Grasim, Hero Motoco, Bharti Airtel, and JSW Steel.

The bearish sentiment was triggered by the release of India’s trade data for November, which revealed a sharp decline in exports, reflecting weak global demand. This raised concerns about the country’s economic outlook and growth trajectory, prompting widespread selling in equity markets.

Further dampening investor sentiment. The slump in exports not only stoked fears of slowing economic momentum but also exerted significant pressure on the Indian Rupee, which depreciated during the trading session.

The combination of weak exports, currency pressure, and the widening trade deficit weighed heavily on investor confidence, driving markets deeper into negative territory as the session progressed.

Market analysts attributed the sharp declines to heightened investor caution amid deteriorating macroeconomic indicators.

Also read: Deloitte Report Reveals Disturbing Facts About AI Integration In Your Workplace

The former indicates significant challenges for the Indian economy. The weak trade data and declining exports indicates weak global demand for Indian products. Exports are an important driver of India’s economy, and a reduction in demand can affect manufacturing and employment, particularly in export-dependent sectors. The surging trade deficit means India is importing more than it is exporting, which can put pressure on foreign exchange reserves and lead to further depreciation of the Indian Rupee. This erodes the purchasing power of consumers and raises costs for businesses reliant on imports, potentially impacting inflation. The dwindling investor sentiment is bearish on the market, which highlights investor concerns about India’s economic health. Falling stock prices, especially for key companies, indicate that investors fear the economy is slowing, and this can lead to reduced investments and business confidence. All these will put pressure on MSMEs that are key contributors to GDP and employment. If they struggle due to unfavorable business policies, this could stunt job creation and innovation. Last, but not the least, the currency depreciation adds to the economic strain, particularly for businesses that rely on imports, as it makes foreign goods more expensive. This could drive inflation, further hurting consumer spending and economic stability.

Sensex Gains 992 Points, Festive Boost

November 25, 2024, 5:06 pm

Indian stock markets posted notable gains on Monday, kicking off the week on a strong note and recovering some of their recent losses. The Sensex closed at 80,109.85 points, rising by 992.74 points (1.25%), while the Nifty ended at 24,221.90 points, up by 314.65 points (1.32%). All sectoral indices advanced, with Nifty Bank, PSU Bank, Realty, and Oil & Gas leading the rally.

Despite Monday’s gains, the Sensex remains around 6,000 points below its record high of 85,978 points. Recent declines have been linked to fund outflows, weaker-than-expected Q2 earnings from Indian companies, and elevated inflation levels.

Vinod Nair, Head of Research at Geojit Financial Services, noted that the results of major state elections had a positive impact on market sentiment, boosting confidence in government spending stability for the second half of FY2024-25.

“The rally was broad-based, with sectors like infrastructure, capital goods, and industrials outperforming due to expectations of increased order inflows. A positive outlook for H2 is supported by strong monsoon effects, festive demand, and the marriage season, which could help counterbalance the Q2 earnings downgrades,” Nair added.

Similarly, Vikram Kasat, Head of Advisory at Prabhudas Lilladher, highlighted the impact of political stability on market sentiment. “The BJP’s strong performance and its focus on growth-oriented policies have improved investor confidence, creating a conducive environment for potential market recovery,” Kasat said.

Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs), however, appear poised to close November as net sellers in Indian markets for the second consecutive month, following four months of net buying through September. Data from the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) indicates FPIs have offloaded stocks worth ₹26,533 crore in November.

Looking ahead, the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) upcoming bi-monthly Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting will be closely monitored for indications on monetary policy direction. High food inflation has delayed anticipated rate cuts by the central bank.

Additionally, GDP data for the July-September quarter, to be released at 4 pm on November 29, is expected to provide further economic insights. The Indian economy grew 6.7% in the April-June quarter, falling short of the RBI’s forecast of 7.1%.

Sensex Gains 239 Points After 7-Day Slump

November 19, 2024, 4:42 pm

Indian stock indices returned to the green zone on Tuesday after trading lower for seven consecutive sessions. The rise can be partly attributed to value buying.

The Sensex closed at 77,578.38 points, gaining 239.38 points or 0.31 per cent, while the Nifty ended at 23,518.50 points, up 64.70 points or 0.28 per cent. Nifty auto, media, realty, and consumer durables sectors led the gains, while metal, PSU bank, and oil and gas sectors lagged, according to NSE data.

At one point during the session, both indices rose over 1 per cent before profit booking at higher levels pared gains.

“An important takeaway from the recent market trend is that a quick and sharp recovery is not in sight,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“There can be recoveries which are unlikely to sustain given the selling mode of the FIIs and the concerns surrounding the weak earnings growth feared in FY25. At best, the market may consolidate around the present levels with sideways movements. Sustained up moves will emerge only when incoming data indicates earnings recovery,” Vijayakumar explained.

He also highlighted a significant trend in the market: “A sustained weakness is emerging in a large number of mid and smallcaps. Hundreds of such stocks, which had run ahead of fundamentals and were driven by momentum, are reverting to mean. Investors need not rush in to grab these stocks which have more downside potential. In contrast, quality largecaps are resilient, and investors can stick to them.”

Until Monday, benchmark stock indices in India had been in a downward spiral, extending losses for the seventh straight session and touching new multi-month lows.

The continued decline was driven by multiple factors, including relatively weak Q2 earnings, sustained foreign fund outflows, and rising domestic inflation—both retail and wholesale.

Sensex Gains 694 Points Amidst Volatile Session as Investors Focus on US Elections

November 5, 2024, 5:18 pm

In a turbulent trading session on Tuesday, the Indian stock market experienced sharp fluctuations as the Sensex oscillated between gains and losses. Ultimately, the Sensex closed at 79,476.63 points, rising 694.39 points or 0.88%, while the Nifty finished at 24,213.30 points, up by 217.95 points or 0.91%. Despite these gains, the Sensex remains below its all-time high of 85,978 points. Key sectors that contributed to the rise included Nifty Bank, Financial Services, Metal, PSU Bank, and Private Bank, according to data from the NSE.

High Volatility Due to Foreign Selling

During Tuesday’s session, the Sensex saw an intraday drop of nearly 1,500 points before recovering a portion of its losses by the close. This volatility stemmed largely from the ongoing sell-off by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs), who have been offloading significant holdings in the Indian markets. October saw foreign funds exit with net sales totaling ₹94,017 crore, marking their highest-ever monthly outflow, according to National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) data. This trend reversed the previous four-month streak of net buying by FPIs and has weighed heavily on the Indian stock indices.

India’s Underperformance Compared to Global Markets

Analysts are noting the underperformance of the Indian stock market compared to the US, where the S&P 500 has gained 20.45% year-to-date (YTD), in contrast to the Nifty’s 10.36% YTD rise. Domestic factors are impacting the performance, as two-thirds of Nifty 50 companies reported earnings below expectations in Q2, prompting a downward revision of Nifty 50’s FY25 earnings growth from 15% to under 10%. “Given this earnings downgrade, it will be challenging to sustain the current valuation levels, leading to persistent FII selling,” explained V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

Investor Focus on Upcoming US Elections and Federal Reserve Meeting

Looking forward, both domestic and international investors are closely monitoring the upcoming US presidential election on November 5, where Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are in a closely contested race. Additionally, the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Thursday is expected to impact global market sentiment. Indian investors are also keeping an eye on the ongoing earnings season for India Inc., which could further influence market performance.

With both the US elections and Fed policy decisions on the horizon, the market is expected to remain volatile as investors weigh global and domestic factors impacting the Indian economy.

Trump Vs Harris: 2024 US Election Impact On Indian Markets & Key Sectors

November 5, 2024, 1:43 am

As the 2024 U.S. presidential election heats up, the impact on Indian stock markets and export-driven sectors has captured the interest of investors. A Trump win may favor certain industries, while a Harris victory could bring changes to climate and economic policies with significant effects on global markets. Here’s what analysts predict for Indian markets if either candidate wins.

US Election Stakes for Indian Markets

The 2024 election could directly affect India’s information technology (IT), pharmaceutical, textiles, metals, oil and gas, industrials, defense, and utilities sectors. Analysts suggest Trump may hold a slight lead in current polls, but the race remains tight, especially in swing states like Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Arizona.

Sector Analysis: Trump vs. Harris Policy Impact on India

1. IT Services

– Trump: Expected to impose higher tariffs, but may drive hiring at Global Capability Centers (GCCs) in India, benefiting IT midcap firms.
– Harris: A win could mean higher U.S. corporate taxes, potentially limiting tech spending and affecting margins for Indian software exporters.

2. Pharmaceuticals

– Both Parties: Focus on lowering drug costs, benefiting generic volume growth.
– Harris: Push for faster approvals of first-time generics could aid U.S. generic companies.

3. Industrials

– Trump: Plans to boost U.S. manufacturing, potentially strengthening multinational industrial companies like ABB, Siemens, and Honeywell, which have significant ties with Indian suppliers.
– Harris: May lean towards cleaner energy infrastructure, impacting traditional manufacturing favorably.

4. Oil & Gas

– Trump: Favorable for traditional energy with less emphasis on climate costs, benefiting oil and gas stocks in the short term.
– Harris: Could enforce carbon credit costs, impacting oil and gas producers but supporting green energy stocks.

5. Defense

– Trump: Emphasis on a strong military could favor Indian defense companies aligned with U.S. defense contracts, such as Bharat Dynamics and HAL.
– Harris: May prioritize international alliances with a balanced defense spending approach.

6. Metals

– Both Parties: Limited changes expected, as current tariffs on Chinese steel and aluminum remain stable.

7. Textiles

– Trump: Trade barriers with China may create export opportunities for Indian textiles.
– Harris: Likely to support fair-trade policies that may open alternative markets.

8. Utilities

– Trump: Traditional energy focus could lower demand for solar exports.
– Harris: Expected to expand climate initiatives, boosting demand for solar module exports to the U.S.

Stock Market Projections: Republican Sweep vs. Democratic Gains

Ashika Stock Broking notes that a Republican sweep might fuel a short-term rally in U.S. markets, which could spill over positively to India. However, Emkay Global warns that sustaining this rally might be challenging, depending on global earnings momentum. A Democratic sweep, while potentially causing a market correction of 5%, may offer long-term stability with a focus on sustainable growth.

Polling Errors and Swing States

Nomura India highlights the tight polling margins, with errors in swing states potentially swinging the election either way. If Trump outperforms, as he did in 2016 and 2020, it could lead to market adjustments that could affect FPI flows to India.

Bottom Line

The 2024 U.S. election’s impact on Indian markets hinges on who takes office. While Trump may drive short-term rallies with pro-business stances, Harris’s policies could offer more consistent growth through green energy initiatives and climate-focused policies. Investors should watch closely as November 5 approaches, with India’s export-reliant sectors poised to respond to the changing winds of U.S. economic policies.

Stock Market Decline: Sensex Drops Under 80,000; Nifty Hits 24,450

October 23, 2024, 12:45 pm

Indian Benchmark Indices Decline

New Delhi: On Wednesday, Indian benchmark indices continued their downward trajectory, with both the BSE Sensex and Nifty 50 starting the day in the negative. At the market opening, the Sensex fell by 309.75 points, or 0.39 percent, settling at 79,910.97. Meanwhile, the Nifty 50 decreased by 23.75 points, or 0.1 percent, reaching 24,448.35.

Top Losers on NSE

Several stocks experienced significant losses during the early trading session. Notable losers on the NSE included NTPC, Power Grid, Mahindra & Mahindra, Shri Ram Finance, Coal India, ONGC, and BEL.

Early Gainers on NSE

Despite the overall market decline, some stocks managed to show positive movement. Among the top gainers in early trade were Bajaj Finance, Bajaj Finserv, HDFC Bank, Bajaj Auto, and Britannia.

Performance of Asian Markets

In the Asia-Pacific region, market performances varied. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined by 0.04 percent, while the Topix index saw a slight increase of 0.19 percent. South Korea’s Kospi rose by 0.43 percent, although the Kosdaq experienced a decrease of 0.72 percent. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 saw a modest gain of 0.14 percent. In China, the Shanghai Composite fell by 0.08 percent, and the CSI300 dropped by 0.53 percent. Conversely, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index advanced by 0.39 percent.

Market Recap from the Previous Day

On Tuesday, the markets faced a challenging trading day, with both indices suffering substantial declines. The Sensex plummeted by 930.55 points, or 1.15 percent, closing at 80,220.72. The Nifty 50 also dropped, falling by 309 points, or 1.25 percent, to end the day at 24,472.10.

Nifty 50 Drops 3% From Record High: Potential 10% Market Correction Ahead?

July 25, 2024, 11:18 am

The Indian stock market experienced a notable selloff on Thursday, July 25, as the benchmark indices, the Sensex and the Nifty 50, each fell by nearly 1%. This marks the fifth consecutive session of declines for both indices. As of today’s low, the Nifty 50 has dropped approximately 3% from its all-time high of 24,854.80, which it reached on July 19.

Immediate Negative Triggers

Weak global cues and the budgetary proposals to increase taxes on long-term and short-term capital gains (LTCG and STCG) are the primary reasons for the recent market downturn. While global uncertainties may continue for an extended period, concerns over capital gains taxes are expected to ease soon.

Potential for a Deeper Correction
There are significant factors that could lead to a deeper correction, potentially up to 10% or more in the Indian market:

Overheated Market

The market is currently facing valuation concerns across various segments. Mid and small-cap segments are considered frothy, and large caps are trading at a premium. Key valuation metrics for the Nifty 50 are alarming, with the current price-to-earnings (PE) ratio at 24.5, higher than the one-year forward PE of 19.2. Similarly, the price-to-book (PB) value is at 4, above its one-year forward PB of 3.2.

“There are valuation challenges across caps. Valuations are higher also because, after a long time, there is comfort in terms of the durability of the growth rate,” said Pankaj Pandey, Head of Research at ICICI Securities.

Unimpressive Q1 Numbers

Corporate earnings for the April-June quarter (Q1FY25) have been mixed, failing to uplift market sentiment. The market rally has been supported by strong earnings, but this growth appears to be slowing down.

“The rally in the Indian stock market has been supported by earnings growth. According to the latest Economic Survey, corporate earnings grew by 30% in FY24, and Nifty’s earnings rose by 24%. The Q1 earnings so far indicate a slowdown,” said V K Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.

“There are signs of deceleration in corporate earnings after the impressive 24% growth in Nifty earnings in FY24. The excessive valuations in certain segments of the broader market are unlikely to be sustained despite the irrational exuberance of retail investors,” added Vijayakumar.

Lack of Fresh Positive Triggers

The market seems to have already accounted for most positive triggers. With elections and the Budget behind us, there is a struggle to find new factors to sustain and extend market gains. Experts suggest that the lack of fresh triggers could lead to increased stock and sector-specific actions, with potential profit booking at higher levels.

Sensex & Nifty Close At Record Fresh High On Tuesday

July 16, 2024, 4:42 pm

Building on the gains collected for the past several weeks, Indian stock indices sensex & nifty settle at record fresh high on Tuesday.

Sensex stands at 80,716.55 points, which increased by 0.1 percent. And Nifty on the other hand stands at 24,613.00 points, which also increased by 0.1 percent.

Even though, the broader indices were marginally higher, but sectoral indices settled at red.

Nifty media recorded the most decline, which stood at 1.03 per cent. The Nifty Reality in contrast, recorded the increase at 1.66 per cent.

But overall Indian stock markets record fresh all-time gains this week. This recent uptrend in the market was primarily fueled by easing of US inflation, stronger performance by IT sector and nil presence of negative market fundamentals.

Most Likely, the market will witness some moves largely specific to stocks this week, amid current earnings season.

The participants of the market have also tolerated high inflation figures recorded in June. Currently, they are also looking at upcoming budget. Which is going to be unveiled on July 23.

This 2024-25, Sensex & Nifty have currently accumulated the returns of 11-13 percent. Tommorrow on Wednesday, the Indian stock market will be closed for Muharram.

Sensex-Nifty Reach Fresh Highs, As Trading Session Comes To A Close

June 26, 2024, 5:08 pm

Indian Indices such as Sensex and Nifty reached fresh highs, as trading sessions come to a close on Wednesday.

These gains are mostly aided by the gains made by Banking and media stocks. The Sensex closed at 78,572.43, which increased by 518.91 points and Nifty had 120.60 points, which closed at 23,868.80.

Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex reached an-all time fresh highs of 78,759.40. It got closed with an increase of 620.72 points or 0.80 per cent, which stood at 78,674.25.

The NSE Nifty 50 also witnessed an increase with 147.50 points or 0.62 per cent, which stood at 23,868.80.

The companies who gained the most in NSE Nifty 50 were Reliance Industries, Bharti Airtel, UltraTech Cement, ICICI Bank, and Grasim. Meanwhile companies like Apollo Hospitals, Mahindra & Mahindra, Bajaj Auto, Tata Steel, and Hindalco Industries remained behind.

If observed sectoral-wise, the nifty media increased by 1.7 per cent while Nifty Bank and Nifty FMCG gained respectively by 0.5 per cent and 0.4 per cent.

As for Financial Services, FMCG, Media, Pharma, PSU Banks, Private Banks and Oil and Gas sectors, they continue to remain in green. Consumer durables, Midsmall healthcare, Realty, Metal and IT also ended the session with green.

By buying Indian equities, have made a substantial move. In contrast, domestic investors displayed mixed market sentiments, as they were selling their shares.

Stock Market Update: Nifty Outlook, Cabinet Insights, And Top Stock Recommendations For Tuesday

June 11, 2024, 10:06 am

The Indian stock market closed lower on Monday, influenced by weak global cues triggered by hotter-than-expected US job data. Here are the key highlights from today’s trading session:

Market Performance:

The Nifty 50 index edged lower by 30 points to close at 23,259, while the BSE Sensex shed 203 points, ending at 76,490.
The Bank Nifty index finished 22 points lower at the 49,780 mark.
Despite the overall decline, broad market indices ended positively, with the advance-decline ratio remaining firm at 1.92:1.

Trade Setup for Tuesday:

According to Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities, Nifty is currently facing resistance at the 23,250 level, with a bearish weekly candlestick pattern suggesting a possible downward correction.
Hrishikesh Yedve, AVP Technical and Derivatives Research at Asit C Mehta, highlighted that the Bank Nifty index formed a hanging man candlestick pattern, indicating resistance at 51,130-51,140 levels and immediate support near 49,000 levels.

Buy or Sell Recommendations:

Sumeet Bagadia’s Recommendations:

Zensar Technologies: Buy at ₹688.40, target ₹730, stop loss ₹665.
VA Tech Wabag: Buy at ₹1153.35, target ₹1222, stop loss ₹1111.

Ganesh Dongre’s Recommendations:

Punjab National Bank (PNB): Buy at ₹126, target ₹135, stop loss ₹120.
AWL: Buy at ₹345, target ₹365, stop loss ₹338.
LT: Buy at ₹3542, target ₹3650, stop loss ₹3480.

Analysts provided insights into potential buying opportunities for investors based on technical analysis and stock market trends. It’s essential for investors to conduct thorough research and consider their risk appetite before making any investment decisions.

Indian Stock Market: 7 Key Weekend Changes From Gift Nifty To Modi 3.0 And US Nonfarm Payrolls

June 10, 2024, 11:52 am

The Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are anticipated to commence trading on a tepid note today, mirroring mixed signals from global counterparts. Asian markets exhibited varied trends, while the US stock market witnessed a slight decline last week amid speculation regarding potential interest rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve.

Traders are closely monitoring the possibility of a rate reduction in September, with a 56% probability, according to the CME’s FedWatch tool. Additionally, the formation of the new government under Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who along with his 71 ministers, took oath on Sunday, is expected to impact market sentiment.

In the previous session, Indian stock market indices concluded at record closing highs, driven by the Reserve Bank of India’s decision to maintain the repo rate and policy stance unchanged. The Sensex surged 1,618.85 points, or 2.16%, to settle at 76,693.36, while the Nifty 50 soared 468.75 points, or 2.05%, closing at 23,290.15.

Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Retail Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd., remarked, “Now hopes have revived that the US Federal Reserve might cut interest rates in the September meet based on recent macro data points. This week, focus will be on allocation of key cabinet portfolios such as Finance, Defense, Roads, Energy, Commerce, and Railways. The market will continue to be volatile with upward biasedness.”

Investors will closely monitor global and domestic triggers this week, including the US Federal Reserve policy, Bank of Japan interest rate decision, US inflation data, India’s retail inflation data, and key policy decisions of the BJP-led coalition government.

In Asian markets, Japan’s Nikkei 225 gained 0.19%, and the Topix rose 0.38%, while South Korea’s Kospi fell 1% and the Kosdaq dropped 0.5%. Notably, stock markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Australia are closed today.

The Gift Nifty is currently trading around the 23,290 level, indicating a weak start for the Indian stock market indices with a discount of nearly 40 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

Sensex Reaches Record Highs Days After Post-Election Market Crash

June 7, 2024, 4:56 pm

The benchmark Sensex surged by over 1,720 points, marking a remarkable over 2% increase and reaching all-time intraday highs. This significant rise coincided with the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) revising its GDP growth projection for 2024-25 from 7% to 7.2%.

The 30-share BSE Sensex soared by 1,720.8 points, hitting an unprecedented peak of 76,795.31 during the day’s trading session. Concurrently, the NSE Nifty witnessed a substantial increase of 498.8 points, reaching 23,320.20.

Following the June 4 counting day, when the stock market faced a significant downturn, the BSE benchmark has experienced a remarkable surge of 2,995.46 points or 4.15% over the past two days.

Despite the economic uncertainty, the RBI opted to maintain the policy rate unchanged for the eighth consecutive time, emphasizing its commitment to closely monitor inflationary trends.

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Vaishali Parekh’s Stock Recommendations: Buy or Sell Today?

June 6, 2024, 9:59 am

The Indian stock market erased some of the previous day’s losses and ended higher after NDA allies pledged support for the alliance to form a government for the third term. The Nifty 50 index gained 735 points, closing at 22,620, while the BSE Sensex surged 1,303 points to finish at 74,382. The Bank Nifty index ended 2,126 points higher at 49,054. In the broader market, the mid-cap index outperformed the frontline Indian indices, with the advance-decline ratio rising sharply to 3.49:1.

Vaishali Parekh’s Stock Picks and Market Outlook

Vaishali Parekh, Vice President of Technical Research at Prabhudas Lilladher, noted that the Nifty 50 index has moved above the 50-EMA zone of 22,400. She added that a decisive breach above 22,900 by the 50-stock index could further improve the Indian stock market’s bias and sentiment. Parekh emphasized that the Bank Nifty index needs to sustain above the significant 50-EMA level of 48,150 to maintain a positive bias.

For today’s stock recommendations, Vaishali Parekh suggested three stocks to buy:

HDFC Life: Buy at ₹552, target ₹577, stop loss ₹540.
ITC: Buy at ₹430, target ₹455, stop loss ₹420.
Coal India: Buy at ₹460, target ₹482, stop loss ₹450.

Nifty and Bank Nifty Analysis

On the outlook for Nifty, Parekh mentioned, “Nifty, after witnessing heavy erosion a day before, bulls regained some lost strength to gain 735 points, ending near the 22,600 zone, moving above the significant 50-EMA level of 22,400. The index has support near the 21,800 level, and a decisive breach above 22,900 could further improve bias and sentiment.”

Regarding the Bank Nifty, she said, “The Bank Nifty gained more than 4% to move past the 49,000 zone with decent recovery witnessed. With support near the 47,300 level, it needs to sustain above the 50-EMA level of 48,150 to maintain a positive bias. A decisive breach above the 49,700 zone could confirm further upside potential, provided there are no unexpected political developments.”

Parekh added that Nifty’s immediate support is at 22,450, while resistance is at 22,900. The Bank Nifty’s daily range is expected to be between 48,200 and 50,300.

Stock Market Today: Nifty FMCG Index Jumps 5%; Marico, Britannia, And COLPAL Hit Record Highs

June 5, 2024, 2:05 pm

In the aftermath of the volatile stock market behavior following the Lok Sabha Election 2024 results, the Nifty FMCG Index has exhibited notable resilience. It surged by approximately 5 percent, reaching the 5,800 mark during the early morning session, and recorded a 1 percent rise on Tuesday despite the broader market downturn triggered by disappointing election outcomes. This performance underscores sustained investor interest in major FMCG companies such as Dabur, Marico, Britannia, COLPAL, and Bikaji.

FMCG Majors Hit New Highs

Amid the stock market turbulence, shares of Marico, Britannia, COLPAL, and Bikaji Foods reached new lifetime highs, while Dabur’s share price hit a new 52-week high within minutes of the market opening. This trend highlights the sector’s robust performance despite broader market challenges.

Strategic Moves by Investors

Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities, analyzed the underlying factors driving the strength in FMCG stocks. “Typically, investors turn to FMCG, pharma, IT, and healthcare segments during sharp market declines. Following the market crash on Tuesday due to disappointing election results, investors shifted to these safe havens. This strategic move led to the Nifty FMCG Index being the only index to end higher on Tuesday, while Nifty Pharma, Nifty Healthcare, and Nifty IT were the least affected indexes in the previous session,” explained Gorakshkar.

Positive Outlook for Nifty FMCG Index

Ganesh Dongre, Senior Manager of Technical Research at Anand Rathi, provided an optimistic forecast for the Nifty FMCG Index. “With the index breaking its hurdle at the 5,600 mark, it is now poised to register a 2-3 percent rise and potentially reach the 6,000 level. Importantly, the index has crucial support at the 5,200 level,” he stated. This clear direction helps investors and traders plan their market strategies with greater confidence.

FMCG Stocks to Watch

Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, highlighted several FMCG stocks that are likely to continue attracting investor interest. “Traders and investors should consider shares of Marico, COLPAL, Dabur, and Heritage Foods, as these stocks show positive chart patterns,” Bagadia advised.

Dabur: Share price may rise to ₹650 in the near term.
Heritage Foods: Expected to reach ₹575 per share in the short term.
Marico: Share price may touch ₹630 in the near term.
COLPAL: Set to reach ₹3,200 level.

The remarkable performance of the Nifty FMCG Index amidst market volatility reflects a strategic shift by investors towards reliable and stable sectors. With strong support levels and positive forecasts, the FMCG sector continues to be a beacon of resilience on Dalal Street. Investors are advised to monitor these stocks closely and consider them for their portfolios in the current market environment.

Is Political Stability Driving The Indian Stock Market? Sensex And Nifty Surge After Naidu’s NDA Commitment

June 5, 2024, 1:52 pm

The Indian stock market witnessed a significant surge today, following an initially lukewarm opening. Strong support from bullish investors emerged after TDP leader N Chandrababu Naidu reaffirmed his party’s commitment to the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) post-Lok Sabha election results.

Market Rally Driven by Political Clarity

Naidu’s statement, “TDP is firmly with the NDA,” came as a relief to investors. His affirmation dispelled widespread rumors that had caused uncertainty in the Indian stock market after the BJP failed to secure an absolute majority, falling short by around 20 seats. This clarity led to a robust recovery in the markets, with investors engaging in bottom fishing at lower levels.

Indices at New Highs

The Nifty 50 index reached an intraday high of 22,445, marking a rise of over 2%. Meanwhile, the BSE Sensex climbed to an intraday peak of 73,851, a 1.90% increase from its previous close of 72,079. The Bank Nifty index also surged, touching 48,000 shortly after Naidu’s declaration.

Expert Insights

Avinash Gorakshkar, Head of Research at Profitmart Securities, highlighted the impact of political uncertainty on market performance. “The Lok Sabha Election results were below market estimates, which had anticipated a strong BJP-led government for a third term. The absence of an absolute majority raised doubts among investors, which were alleviated by Naidu’s statement.”

Despite the positive market response, experts advised caution. Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, emphasized that the breach of the 22,100 to 22,200 mark by the Nifty 50 should not be viewed as a definitive trend reversal. “We need to wait for some more time, as the market may become bullish once the 50-stock index breaches its crucial hurdle of 22,500 on a closing basis,” he noted.

Naidu’s Commitment to NDA

Addressing the media after the BJP-led NDA secured a historic third consecutive term, Naidu reiterated his support for the alliance. “Andhra Pradesh voters have given a verdict for a better Andhra, and both TDP and BJP will work together to meet their expectations,” he stated.

Today’s market rally underscores the influence of political stability on investor confidence. While the positive momentum is encouraging, market analysts urge traders to proceed with caution and monitor key resistance levels for a clearer trend indication.

Nifty 50 and Sensex Predictions Today: Indian Stock Market Outlook On Election Results 2024

June 4, 2024, 8:13 am

OThe Indian stock market indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are poised for a robust opening on Tuesday as the nation awaits the announcement of Lok Sabha Election 2024 results. With Prime Minister Narendra Modi projected to secure a third consecutive term, investors anticipate a favorable outcome for the ruling BJP-led alliance.

The Gift Nifty, an indicator of early market trends, suggests a positive start for the Indian benchmark index, trading around the 23,570 level, reflecting a premium of nearly 160 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.

Monday witnessed a sharp rally in domestic equity indices, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above the 23,200 level. This surge followed positive sentiment from exit polls, coupled with better-than-expected India Q4 GDP figures.

The Sensex soared 2,507.47 points, or 3.39%, to close at 76,468.78, while the Nifty 50 settled 733.20 points, or 3.25%, higher at 23,263.90. Nifty 50 formed a hammer-like pattern, marking its best session in over three years, indicating a continuation of the uptrend.

Ruchit Jain, Lead Research at 5Paisa.com, predicts further momentum in the market if the election results align with expectations. He identifies the previous hurdle of 23,100 – 23,000 as immediate support, with possible targets around 23,700 followed by 24,000 – 24,200.

Mandar Bhojane, Research Analyst at Choice Broking, notes that on the call side, the highest Open Interest (OI) is observed at the 23,500 strike price, while on the put side, the highest OI is at the 23,000 strike price.

Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty Predictions

Rupak De, Senior Technical Analyst at LKP Securities, highlights the Nifty’s dependency on election results. A deviation from exit poll projections may induce market volatility. V.L.A. Ambala, Co-founder of Stock Market Today (SMT), advises adopting a neutral strategy given current fluctuations.

Ambala expects Nifty to find key support between 23,240 and 23,000 levels, with resistance at 23,450 and 23,610. Meanwhile, the Bank Nifty surged 4.07%, closing at 50,980, outperforming the Nifty 50. Ambala anticipates support at 50,800 and 50,000, with resistance at 51,500 and 52,100 levels.

While bullish sentiment prevails, analysts advise caution and observation before adopting buy-on-dip strategies. As the market awaits election results, investors remain vigilant, ready to navigate potential market fluctuations with strategic positioning and risk management.

Stock Market Skyrockets on Exit Polls Forecasting Major BJP Victory

June 3, 2024, 10:30 am

In an unprecedented surge, the Indian stock market witnessed a massive jump in early trade today, bolstered by the hopeful anticipation of political stability as predicted by exit polls. The 30-share Sensex rallied over 2,000 points this morning, while the 50-stock Nifty recorded its largest leap in four years during the market opening.

Both the Sensex and Nifty, the benchmark indexes of the Bombay Stock Exchange and the National Stock Exchange respectively, soared to record high levels. All stocks listed on the Sensex and Nifty are currently trading in the green.

During pre-open trading, the Nifty surged over 800 points or 3.58% to reach 23,227.90, while the Sensex jumped 2,621.98 points or 3.55% to 76,583.29.

Top performers leading this market rally include Adani Ports, Adani Enterprises, Power Grid, Shriram Finance, and NTPC, all registering significant gains. The upbeat market sentiment was further buoyed by the latest GDP data indicating a robust 8.2% fiscal growth.

Commenting on the market dynamics, Varun Aggarwal, founder and managing director of Profit Idea, attributed the buoyant sentiments to India’s impressive Q4FY24 GDP growth of 7.8%, surpassing expectations, with the fiscal year’s growth standing at 8.2%. However, Aggarwal cautioned that the market could remain volatile in anticipation of tomorrow’s election results.

Exit polls conducted on Saturday predicted that the BJP is poised to return to power with the ruling NDA alliance securing 365 seats. This projection was welcomed by the BJP but dismissed by the Opposition, which expressed confidence in securing victory on counting day.

While the BJP celebrated the exit poll predictions, Opposition leaders, including Congress chief Mallikarjun Kharge, emphasized the unpredictability of exit polls and expressed optimism regarding their electoral prospects.

Despite the anticipation and excitement surrounding the exit poll predictions, market analysts cautioned that outcomes on counting day could bring unforeseen volatility. Nevertheless, today’s market surge reflects investor optimism linked to the prospect of political stability in the country.

NSE/BSE market cap to cross USD 10 trillion by 2030- Experts

May 24, 2024, 3:28 pm

In an unprecedented feat, the Indian stock market indices BSE and NSE have entered the exclusive USD 5 trillion club, generating USD 1 trillion in wealth in just six months, despite foreign institutional investors (FIIs) withdrawing funds ahead of the Lok Sabha election results on June 4.

BSE and NSE soared from USD 4 trillion in November 2023 to USD 5 trillion by this week, marking the fastest wealth creation in Indian market history. Data indicates that this surge was driven by domestic institutional investors, retail investors, and high net worth individuals (HNIs), even as FIIs pulled out at least Rs 28,000 crore from the market this month.

Market experts suggest that if current trends continue, and with India projected to become the third-largest economy by 2027, the market cap of BSE and NSE could reach USD 10 trillion by 2030. Ajay Bagga, a market expert, noted that increased scale attracts more investment, initiating a virtuous cycle of growth. He stated, “There is a good chance of both NSE and BSE listed companies’ market cap crossing USD 10 trillion by or before 2030 amid huge growth in FDI and FPI flows on the back of the favourable economy.”

Bagga further predicted that by the end of 2024, the Indian markets might reach USD 5.5 to 5.75 trillion, with key sectors like Financials and IT gaining momentum. He highlighted the potential impact of listing more unlisted companies, noting that India’s 130 Unicorns could significantly boost market cap.

The journey of market capitalization reveals rapid growth: it took 10 years to go from USD 1 trillion to USD 2 trillion, but less than six months to leap from USD 4 trillion to USD 5 trillion. Key milestones in Indian stock market capitalization include:

USD 1 Trillion: May 2007
USD 2 Trillion: July 2017 (10 Years)
USD 3 Trillion: May 2021 (4 Years)
USD 4 Trillion: November 2023 (2.5 Years)
USD 5 Trillion: May 2024 (6 Months)

India’s stock market, now the fifth largest globally by market cap, has instilled new confidence in retail investors. Harsha Upadhyaya, CIO – Equity, Kotak Mutual Fund, remarked, “India’s aggregate market capitalization crossing the USD 5 trillion mark is driven primarily by continuing strong economic growth and robust corporate performance. India is now the world’s 4th largest in terms of aggregate market capitalization, signifying the breadth and depth of Indian listed equity space and its long-term potential.”

Comparatively, the US leads with a market cap of almost USD 55.65 trillion, followed by China at USD 9.4 trillion, Japan at USD 6.42 trillion, and Hong Kong at USD 5.47 trillion.

Market predictions are optimistic. Shrikant Chauhan, Head of Equity Research at Kotak Securities, foresees the Nifty index reaching 24,500-25,000 and the Sensex touching 80,000-81,000 by FY26. Despite recent volatility due to election-related speculations, investor confidence has been bolstered by reassurances from Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Home Minister Amit Shah about a comfortable majority for the ruling alliance.

Rajesh Palviya, SVP Research (Head Technical & Derivative) at Axis Securities, is also optimistic, predicting new market heights by the year’s end. “The broader market is showing bullishness, and we believe this rally can extend further. Nifty likely reaches 24,000 in 2024. There is buying interest in most core sectors, and macro data is improving. Corporate earnings are on an upward trajectory, and tax collections are showing a good uptick. Money flow into the equity market is quite encouraging. We expect the Sensex to extend its gains, and we could see the Sensex reach 78,000-79,000 by the end of 2024,” he said.

Experts believe that with a stable government, ongoing reforms, new listings, and rising retail investor participation, Indian markets will continue to reach new heights.

Nifty-Sensex Rally Continues Amid Diminishing Election Result Uncertainty

May 24, 2024, 10:21 am

Indian stock indices Nifty and Sensex commenced trading on Friday with minimal change, remaining close to the record highs achieved the previous day. The Nifty Index opened at 22,930 points, nearing the significant 23,000 mark, while the Sensex continued its momentum from Thursday, starting near 75,335, close to the 75,500 level.

Ajay Bagga, Banking and Market Expert, commented on the substantial net inflow of Rs 4670 crores by FIIs on Thursday, highlighting the importance of monitoring FII activity leading up to the market close on May 31st, the last trading day before the June 1st Exit Polls. Bagga anticipates a moderately positive market amidst diminishing election uncertainties.

Both indices achieved historic highs on Thursday, with the Nifty 50 surpassing the 22,900 mark. The Sensex climbed by 1,196.98 points to 75,418.04, while the Nifty 50 rose by 369.85 points to 22,967.65.

Shrikant Chauhan, Head of equity research at Kotak Securities, pointed out a bullish signal on the daily chart indicating a potential market breakout, with key support levels projected at 22,800/75,000. Chauhan suggested a buying strategy for select stocks within the range of 22,800 to 22,850 levels.

In broader market trends, major indices such as Nifty Next 50, Nifty 100, Nifty Midcap, and Nifty Smallcap began Friday’s session with gains. Among sectoral indices, Nifty Bank and Nifty Financial Services followed the upward trend, while Nifty Auto, Nifty FMCG, and Nifty IT experienced slight declines in the opening session.

In Asian markets, selling pressure persisted, with Japan’s Nikkei index declining by over 1.17 percent, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropping by 1.28 percent, and Taiwan’s Weighted Index losing 64 points to reach 21,543. Similarly, China’s Shanghai Composite Index fell to 3,110.09.

In commodity markets, gold prices decreased to 71,500 rupees, marking a decline of over 2,000 rupees in three days following the US Fed’s announcement of policy meeting minutes, which indicated no recent rate cuts.

Indian Stock Market Second Consecutive Day in the Green After Recent Sell-Off

May 14, 2024, 12:43 pm

On Tuesday, Indian stock indices opened slightly higher, continuing the positive momentum from the previous session’s close. This uptrend was primarily driven by fresh buying following the recent dip. At 9:19 am, shortly after the opening bell, the Sensex stood at 72,979.48 points, marking a gain of 203.34 points or 0.28 percent, while the Nifty reached 22,177.15 points, up by 73.10 points or 0.33 percent. At the time of reporting, all sectoral indices, except for the Nifty pharma and Nifty healthcare index, were trading in positive territory.

Over the past week, indices experienced consistent declines. Analysts attributed this to a strong US dollar, uncertainty surrounding the Lok Sabha election outcomes due to a decreasing voter turnout trend in the completed phases, and profit booking following a recent rally. Additionally, continued selling by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and lower-than-expected earnings from some major corporations also dampened investor sentiment.

Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have recently turned net sellers in Indian stocks. After remaining net buyers for three consecutive months until mid-April, FPIs have cumulatively sold stocks worth Rs 8,671 crore during April, according to National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL). So far in May, they have sold stocks worth Rs 18,375 crore.

“Given the current conditions, the best strategy for investors is to wait and watch for a trend change, which could occur at any time. Clarity on election trends is expected before June 4th, the counting day, and the market response could be significant. Buying on dips would be a prudent approach now,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.With annual retail inflation easing slightly in April, the focus now shifts to wholesale inflation figures, which are due later today.

Sensex-Nifty Begin Day With Downtrend As Global indications Muted

May 8, 2024, 10:46 am

The Sensex and Nifty both began the day in a downtrend as the stock market got underway with cautious trade on Wednesday. As investors remained cautious in the face of persistent uncertainty, the muted global indications suggested that Indian markets would have another dull day.

Ahead of the day, the Nifty was down 68.95 points at 22,233.55, and the Sensex was down 192.45 points at 73,319.40. Of the Nifty companies, 16 had gains in the early trade, while 34 had losses.

Notable gainers among the Nifty companies included Coal India, BPCL, Maruti, SBI, and Reliance, whereas Dr. Reddy, Asian Paints, Larsen & Toubro (LT), Hindustan Unilever, and HDFC Bank were among the top losers.

Expert in banking and markets Ajay Bagga said, “Muted global handover is pointing to another listless day in Indian markets,” in response to the market’s performance. He emphasised elements influencing market mood, such as the rising Volatility Index (VIX) and ongoing outflows of Foreign Institutional Investors (FII).

Bagga underlined the lack of significant catalysts in the Indian markets, citing the RBI’s provisioning overhang on lenders and the poor prognosis for the IT sector. He mentioned how well the European markets were doing and how money was flowing into China.

In terms of Open Interest (OI) data, the call side’s highest OI was recorded at 22,600 strike prices, while the put side’s highest OI was recorded at 22,500 strike prices.

Technically, the trend weakened as the index fell below the 21-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA), with a visible Head and Shoulders pattern on the hourly chart indicating a bearish formation.

Varun Aggarwal, founder and managing director of Profit Idea, stated, “On the global front, Asian stocks showed mixed trends.” He mentioned geopolitical tensions between China and the West and ongoing uncertainties affecting global markets.

Despite these challenges, stocks worldwide have been striving for a rebound after April’s decline, buoyed by prospects of Federal Reserve rate cuts and robust earnings.

The Indian stock market opened cautiously, reflecting muted global cues and ongoing uncertainties. Investors are closely monitoring developments both domestically and internationally for further direction.

Stock Market To Be Close Today For Maharashtra Day

May 1, 2024, 8:46 am

In commemoration of Maharashtra Day, stock exchanges are scheduled to close on Wednesday. Regular trading is scheduled to return on Thursday. May 20, the day of the general elections, is set aside for the following market holiday.

The US stock market was doing well yesterday, but investor confidence improved because of lower tensions in West Asia and the reversal of earlier gains caused by the strong US market. After a relatively calm gain at the start of April, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) sold down, which contributed significantly to the recent spike in volatility on Indian stock markets. The National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) has disclosed that foreign portfolio investors (FFIs) have sold off Rs 8,671 crore worth of Indian stocks as a result of recent geopolitical concerns in the Middle East.

Looking ahead, market activity will be influenced by corporate earnings releases and the eagerly anticipated Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting scheduled from April 30 to May 1. During its March meeting, the US Federal Reserve opted to maintain the key interest rate at 5.25-5.50 per cent, marking the fifth consecutive time the rate remained unchanged, as part of efforts to manage high inflation. These decisions follow a period of near-zero interest rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.