Latest GDP News | Top GDP News Headlines Today | Today India news | Breaking GDP News Today | English GDP News Headlines - TheDailyGuardian

India’s Economic Rise Must Now Lift Its People, Says Report

June 21, 2025, 2:08 pm

India has surpassed several global economies in terms of total GDP over the last decade. However, its per capita income remains low. A report by Llama Research now urges the country to shift focus toward increasing individual prosperity.

Growth Must Reach the People

The report emphasized that India’s next phase of growth must benefit its citizens directly. Although India ranks among the top 10 global economies, it ranks the lowest in per capita income. Llama Research explained, “This isn’t a flaw, it’s a window of compounding potential.”

Key Strengths Driving India’s Momentum

According to the report, India has many advantages. These include manufacturing expansion, rising income tiers, and rapid digital transformation. Additionally, the report cited India’s tech-savvy population, sound policies, macroeconomic stability, and room for long-term capital formation.

“India is not just rising in rank,” the report stated, “it’s building the foundations to lead from the ground up.”

Roadmap to Viksit Bharat by 2047

India aims to become a developed nation, or ‘Viksit Bharat’, by 2047. To achieve this, the Economic Survey 2024–25 stated India must sustain an average growth rate of 8% at constant prices for the next 10 to 20 years.

From Fragile to Fast-Growing

In 2013, India was part of the “Fragile Five” — a term coined by Morgan Stanley for struggling emerging markets. Today, India has transformed. It now stands as the fifth-largest economy and continues to grow rapidly.

The IMF projects that India will overtake Japan and become the fourth-largest economy in the current financial year.

Impressive Growth Numbers

India’s growth remains strong. In 2021–22, the economy expanded by 8.7%. It grew by 7.2% in 2022–23, followed by an impressive 9.2% in 2023–24. In 2024–25, India is expected to grow by 6.5% in real terms, as widely anticipated.

Final Take

India’s economic rise is clear. But now, the challenge lies in ensuring that prosperity reaches every individual. With strong fundamentals and a clear vision, India is laying the groundwork for inclusive growth in the years ahead.

Projected Economic Transformation: Services and Manufacturing to Contribute 75% of GDP by 2047

November 29, 2024, 5:44 pm

India’s manufacturing and services sectors are projected to play a pivotal role in the country’s economic transformation, employing 67% of the workforce and contributing over 75% to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 2047, according to a recent report by ASSOCHAM and Egrow.

The report highlights significant opportunities for businesses within manufacturing, services, and Micro, Small, and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs). India’s nominal GDP is forecasted to rise from USD 3.5 trillion in 2023 to USD 22.8 trillion by 2047, with an annual growth rate of 7.5%. The services sector is expected to dominate this growth, increasing its contribution to GDP from 54.2% in 2023 to 60% by 2047.

Manufacturing is anticipated to experience modest growth, accounting for 18% of GDP, while agriculture’s share is expected to decline significantly to 10%. These projections reflect India’s ongoing transition from an agriculture-based economy to one driven by services and manufacturing.

Employment trends underscore this shift, with the services sector projected to employ 52.3% of the workforce by 2047, compared to just 24.3% in 2000. Conversely, agriculture’s share of employment is expected to plummet from 59.4% to 22%. Manufacturing employment is predicted to rise from 10.9% in 2023 to 15% by 2047, indicating substantial opportunities for businesses in industrial growth and technology-driven production.

MSMEs currently contribute 30% to GDP and 45% to exports

MSMEs, which currently contribute 30% to GDP and 45% to exports, hold immense potential for growth through formalization, technology adoption, and productivity enhancements. The government’s focus on formalizing this sector creates opportunities in financial services, skill development, and technological integration.

FDI is anticipated to play a crucial role in India’s economic transformation.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is anticipated to play a crucial role in India’s economic transformation. With the government prioritizing gross fixed capital investment, the continuation of business-friendly policies and incentives is expected to attract foreign investors.

For businesses, this translates to expanding opportunities in high-tech manufacturing, exports, and services. India’s workforce is set to grow significantly, with employment projected to reach 76.9 crore by 2047, supported by a working-age population of 118.4 crore.

This vast labor pool presents a strategic advantage, but ensuring its readiness for evolving industry needs will require substantial investment in skill development. Businesses are encouraged to contribute to training and upskilling initiatives, preparing the workforce for emerging opportunities in technology-driven industries.

As India aims to achieve a per capita income of USD 14,000 by 2047, the path forward will involve balancing economic growth with inclusivity and sustainability.

Is the World’s Best-Performing Economy Losing Its Shine?

September 3, 2024, 3:22 am

India, often lauded as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, has recently witnessed a slowdown in its GDP growth. In March 2024, CNN termed India as the world’s fastest-growing major economy. However, India’s GDP growth for the quarter ending June 2024 came in at 6.7%, slightly below expectations and 1.5 percentage points lower than the growth rate during the same quarter last year. This dip has raised eyebrows both domestically and internationally. While some may view this as a troubling sign, it’s crucial to recognize that this is not an indication of long-term decline but rather a momentary pause in India’s otherwise upward trajectory. The current challenges are significant, but they are not insurmountable. A deeper look reveals that India has both the strength and the strategies to bounce back robustly.

Domestic Factors Impacting Growth

Weather Challenges and Agricultural Impact: India’s agricultural sector remains a bedrock of the economy, employing a significant portion of the workforce and supporting rural livelihoods. This year, erratic monsoon patterns and an unusually harsh summer have disrupted this sector. Unpredictable weather has led to a decline in agricultural output to 2.7%, affecting rural incomes and stoking inflation, particularly in food prices. These inflationary pressures, in turn, dampen overall consumer demand, slowing down economic activity. Investments in sustainable agricultural practices and improved irrigation systems could mitigate the adverse effects of such climatic irregularities, stabilizing rural incomes and enhancing overall economic resilience.

Economic Implications of Electoral Cycles: India’s vibrant democracy, while a strength, also poses unique economic challenges, especially in the run-up to elections. Political uncertainty often leads to a wait-and-watch approach among businesses and consumers. Investment decisions are deferred, and households cut back on discretionary spending due to apprehensions about policy continuity. This phenomenon, known as the “election cycle effect,” temporarily suppresses economic activity. Retail sales growth, for example, slowed to 4.2% in recent months, down from 7.1% earlier in the year, reflecting cautious consumer sentiment. Maintaining a steady course of economic reforms irrespective of electoral outcomes is crucial to maintaining economic stability.

Geopolitics & Rate Hikes

Global Economic Slowdown and Export Challenges: The slowdown in global demand has been a significant external factor affecting India’s growth. As the US, China, Russia, and the European Union—India’s major trading partners—grapple with economic challenges, Indian exports, particularly in textiles, automotive, and IT services, have seen a decline. Despite these challenges being a drag, India has continued to maintain a strong export performance in sectors such as pharmaceuticals, which grew by 12% year-on-year, and chemicals, demonstrating resilience. The focus must now be on diversifying export markets and enhancing the competitiveness of Indian products globally. India’s proactive trade policies and new trade agreements are set to open up new avenues, bolstering export growth and reducing dependency on traditional markets.

Geopolitical Instabilities: The geopolitical landscape, marked by conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine, Israel-Middle East and ongoing US-China trade tensions, has created a climate of uncertainty, affecting global supply chains and trade flows. For India, this has meant disruptions in imports and exports and increased volatility in commodity prices. For instance, crude oil imports, which constitute a significant portion of India’s import bill, increased by 14% in the first half of 2024 due to supply chain disruptions. Strengthening trade relations with emerging markets in Africa and Latin America, as well as enhancing economic cooperation with ASEAN countries, could shield India from global economic shocks.

Interest Rates and Their Economic Impact: The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has been aggressively raising interest rates to curb inflation, with the repo rate now standing at 6.5%. While higher rates help in managing inflation, they also make borrowing costlier, affecting consumer spending and business investment. Credit growth in the non-food sector slowed to 9.2% in July 2024, down from 13.5% a year earlier, reflecting the impact of higher borrowing costs. Balancing inflation control with growth is critical. A more nuanced monetary policy approach that supports growth while keeping inflation in check could be instrumental. The government’s continued focus on structural reforms and fiscal prudence will also play a crucial role in complementing the RBI’s efforts.

Path to Recovery

Job Creation and Skill Development: India’s large and youthful workforce is a double-edged sword. While it presents immense potential for economic growth, it also poses a challenge in terms of job creation. Despite the current slowdown, India has shown resilience in sectors like technology, e-commerce, and renewable energy, which continue to create jobs. Employment in the technology sector, for example, grew by 5.7% in 2024, even amidst global tech layoffs. Initiatives such as ‘Skill India’ and ‘Make in India’ are set to bridge the skills gap and enhance employability. By focusing on high-growth sectors and promoting startups, India can harness its demographic dividend, leading to sustainable economic growth.

Accelerating Structural Reforms: Structural reforms are the cornerstone of sustained economic growth. The government’s commitment to reforming labour laws, land acquisition processes, and the financial sector has already begun to show positive outcomes. The pace of these reforms is vital in enhancing the ease of doing business, attracting foreign investment, and fostering domestic entrepreneurship. Prime Minister Modi’s administration has shown determination in driving these reforms forward, ensuring that India remains an attractive destination for global investors. Accelerating these reforms could unlock India’s growth potential, driving the economy back to a high-growth trajectory.

Sustained Growth

India’s economic fundamentals remain strong. The country continues to be one of the most attractive investment destinations globally, thanks to its large market, growing middle class, and pro-business government policies. The slowdown is temporary, and with strategic interventions, India is well-positioned to regain its growth momentum. Critical areas of focus include:

Promoting Export Competitiveness: Diversifying export markets and improving the quality and competitiveness of Indian goods will reduce dependency on traditional markets and drive export-led growth.

Enhancing Infrastructure Investment: Continued investment in infrastructure, particularly in logistics, transportation, and digital infrastructure, will reduce costs, enhance productivity, and attract investments.

Innovation and digitalisation: Encouraging innovation and leveraging digital technologies across sectors can boost productivity, create jobs, and sustain growth.

The Bottom Line is that India’s GDP growth slip, while a cause for concern, is not a reflection of the country’s long-term economic potential. The proactive and visionary Indian leadership has laid a solid foundation for sustained growth. By addressing both domestic and global challenges with strategic policy measures and reforms, India is poised not only to recover from this slowdown but to emerge stronger, reaffirming its position as one of the world’s leading economies. With the right mix of policies and reforms, India can convert this temporary setback into an opportunity for renewed growth and prosperity.

Rakesh K Chitkara is an expert in public policy, regulations, and international trade.

Economic Survey 2024: What Does It Say About GDP And Inflation Ahead Of The Budget?

July 22, 2024, 1:13 pm

Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has presented the Economic Survey for 2023-2024 in the Lok Sabha, forecasting that India’s real GDP will grow between 6.5% and 7% in the upcoming fiscal year. This projection aligns closely with the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of 7%.

The Economic Survey stated, “We conservatively project real GDP growth of 6.5–7%, considering that market expectations are on the higher side, with risks balanced.”

Inflation Insights

The survey also addressed inflation trends, noting that core inflation has remained persistently high due to rising service costs and a robust labor market, particularly across most Asian economies. Despite these pressures, the Economic Survey highlighted a decline in retail inflation, which dropped to 5.4% in FY24 from 6.7% in FY23. This improvement was attributed to effective management of global disruptions, supply chain issues, and the impact of variable monsoon patterns through administrative and monetary policy measures.

Capital Expenditure And Investment

On the topic of capital expenditure, the survey applauded the government’s focus on boosting investment. It reported a significant increase in Gross Fixed Capital Formation, which rose by 9% in real terms during 2023-24. This rise in capital formation reflects the positive effects of both government initiatives and sustained private investment on overall economic growth.

India’s CAD at $23.2 bn softens to 0.7% of GDP in FY24

June 25, 2024, 4:21 am

India’s current account (CAD) moderated to a seven-year low of USD 23.2 billion in FY2024, easing to 0.7 per cent as a proportion of GDP, from USD 67 billion which was 2.0 per cent of GDP in FY2023. The CAD more-than-halved, aided by, “a lower merchandise trade deficit according to the Reserve Bank of India on Monday, and a robust expansion in the services trade surplus.

Key features of India’s BoP data in Q4 2023-24 released by the RBI shows that India’s current account balance recorded a surplus of USD 5.7 billion (0.6 per cent of GDP) in Q4 FY 2023-24 as against a deficit of USD 8.7 billion (1.0 per cent of GDP) in Q3 FY 2023-24 and USD 1.3 billion (0.2 per cent of GDP) a year ago in Q4 FY 2022-23. The merchandise trade deficit at USD 50.9 billion in Q4 2023-24 was lower than USD 52.6 billion a year ago.

Economists saw the turnaround of India’s current account into a welcome surplus in Q4 FY2024 as being primarily driven by a narrowing in the merchandise trade deficit that printed to a 10-quarter low of USD 50.9 billion in Q4 FY2024 from USD 69.9 billion in Q3 FY2024. “The reversal exceeded ICRA’s more modest expectations,” says Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, at ICRA.

Services exports grew by 4.1 per cent on a y-o-y basis in Q4 FY 2023-24 on the back of rising exports of software, travel and business services. Net services receipt at USD 42.7 billion was higher than its level a year ago at USD 39.1 billion, which contributed to the surplus in the current account balance during Q4 FY 2023-24. Net outgo on the primary income account, primarily reflecting payments of investment income, increased to USD 14.8 billion from USD 12.6 billion a year ago.

Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to USD 32.0 billion, an increase of 11.9 per cent over their level a year ago. In the financial account, net foreign direct investment flows were USD 2.0 billion in Q4 FY 2023-24 as compared with USD 6.4 billion a year ago.

Foreign portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of USD 11.4 billion in Q4 FY 2023-24 as against a net outflow of USD 1.7 billion during Q4:2022-23. Net inflows under external commercial borrowings to India amounted to USD 2.6 billion in Q4 FY 2023-24 as compared with USD 1.7 billion a year ago. Non-resident deposits recorded a higher net inflow of USD 5.4 billion than USD 3.6 billion in Q4 FY 2022-23.

There was an accretion of foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis i.e., excluding valuation effects) to the tune of USD 30.8 billion in Q4 FY 2023-24 as compared with an accretion of USD 5.6 billion a year ago. Net invisibles receipt was higher during 2023-24 than a year ago, primarily on account of services and transfers.

During 2023-24, portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of USD 44.1 billion as against an outflow of USD 5.2 billion a year ago. Net FDI inflow was USD 9.8 billion during 2023-24 as compared with USD 28.0 billion in 2022-23. In 2023-24, there was an accretion of USD 63.7 billion to the foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis).

The rating agency expects the CAD to rise slightly in FY2025, while remaining eminently manageable at 1.0-1.2 per cent of GDP, owing to a widening in the merchandise trade deficit in this fiscal, on the back of domestic demand and higher commodity prices. In particular, ICRA has assumed an average price of the Indian basket of crude oil of USD 85/barrel. A CAD of 1.0-1.2 per cent of GDP in FY2025 would be comfortably financed, particularly given the expectations of large FPI-debt inflows on account of the bond index inclusion starting end-June 2024, according to Nayar.

Re-thinking Development Through Private-Public Collaborations

June 24, 2024, 10:19 pm

Currently the fifth-largest GDP in the world, India is at the crossroads of its growth trajectory. A focus on equity and social justice would be crucial to reap the best out of its demographic dividend. For this, we collectively need to contextualize some of the critical spheres where interventions can go a long way in fostering sustained development. These vital spheres include building state capacity across government systems, poverty alleviation, creating sustainable livelihoods, building climate-resilient infrastructure, and enhancing human capabilities in general. A critical reasoning is the need to achieve the UN Sustainable Development Goals by 2030. Despite numerous challenges such as periodic floods, and geopolitical and security issues, Assam has experienced a renewed impetus in its growth trajectory in recent years. Such growth necessitates active policy action to restrict unemployment and improve healthcare and education indices throughout the state.

While the government’s role over the years has been impressive, it is no wonder that state capacity alone cannot aid such development outcomes. Civil Society Organisations, Non-Profits, and CSR stakeholders are all heavily investing time, energy, and resources in the delivering such critical outcomes in India. Assam currently provides a fertile ground for such experimention, in order to scale development projects.

While the public sector does provide the framework and personnel to scale massive welfare programs, it still lags in its implementation pathways, owing to policy ineffectiveness and inefficiency, high cost of interventions, public sector lethargy amongst others. It impacts the quality of pubic delivery services, inadvertently leading to the mass departure of ordinary citizens to the private sector for basic services such as health and education.

Because of this flight towards market driven services, such a shift also requires that individuals have a higher purchasing power in order to actually spend and acquire these services. For instance, the number of people going to private financial institutions have increased over the years. Hence, taking people out of poverty and the margins is perhaps one of the greatest challenges we face today, as these factors severely skew our development trajectory. As a result, addressing these issues necessitates more investment in outcome-based public services, financial inclusion, and collaborative PPP frameworks in these sectors. Here comes the role of private stakeholders, civil society to handhold the ultra-poor, minorities, and other backward communities through evidence-based interventions.

Poverty traps exist primarily due to the inability to meet basic needs, access basic resources, and the lack of capabilities and financial support. Active interventions can assist impoverished households in identifying employability, providing skilling and training programs, connecting them to government beneficiary programs, and assisting them in opening bank accounts, among other things.

Back in 2011, we initiated a livelihood program under Naimixa, with the help of a CSR corpus under ONGC, in Sivasagar, Assam. Initial observations showed that the people surrounding the village mostly engaged in seasonal cultivation, relying on traditional tools and methods. The returns to labor were minimal, thus perpetuating a vicious poverty cycle.

Through the program, there was an effort to allow diversification into allied sectors such as livestock, and also into more technical sectors such as mobile repairing, and computer training. In addition, women’s self-help groups took part in livelihood training workshops such as pickle-making seminars and beautician training, among other things. Trainees were linked to supply chains where they could sell their produce. A productive asset such as livestock was given to trainees through subsidized government schemes. The programs not only created new micro-entrepreneurs but also created livelihood pathways for a plethora of individuals in the region. Naimixa is now conducts weekly workshops for children in which Sattriya dance classes (a classical dance form in Assam), Borgeet recital training, and spoken English classes are being imparted. Over 100 students have already enrolled and are being actively trained. The workshops have an underlying objective to engage young adolescents and children in art forms and culture, to elevate their multi-sensory, emotional, and cognitive skillsets. This, we believe, is crucial to enhance their capabilities and artistic freedoms. However, institutionalizing such approaches demands far more thorough research, funding, staff capability, and public-private partnerships.

On similar lines, almost two decades back, reflecting on the tragic ethnic conflicts and insurgency issues in Assam, we started a peacebuilding initiative focusing on our fundamental ideals of peaceful coexistence and brotherhood. This initiative pioneered under the Srimanta Foundation, became a movement that aimed to fast-tracked peace and conflict resolution in Assam. Srimanta Foundation for Culture and Society was launched in 2003 by the then Governor of Assam, Lt General (Retd.) S. K. Singha.

While realising the impact we have managed to create in the last few years through these initiatives, we have also tried to encapsulate the key learnings over the years. Firstly, because we have been working in siloes for so long, no substantial feedback learning mechanisms have been developed, through which a benchmarking of best practies could take place. We agree that while such groundwork has increased with so many non profits working in Assam today, we have rarely seen collaborative efforts take place in the ecosystem. Hence the margin for replicating best practices and scaling pilot social programs have been limited in the state.

Within the scope of climate change too, the United Nations Environment Report (2018) states that private-sector investments are critical to close the funding gap. Weather unpredictability, increase in landslides and flood frequency, and increase in temperatures have already begun to hurt the agriculture sector in Assam. The state is one the most climate-sensitive regions in the country, with 15 of the 25 Indian districts most vulnerable to climate change being situated in Assam. Communities that reside in and around floodplains and river banks live under the constant threat of losing their livelihoods to the ravages of climate change. For a state with around 85% of the population depending on agriculture and forests, climate adaptation support for vulnerable communities is the need of the hour today. Beyond fiscal support, we also need to look at the possibility of civil society and private funding pipelines to create sustained livelihoods for such communities.

A more traditional view of philanthropy is premised on the idea that we earn money for the first half of our lives, and then start giving back in the second half. But this notion is constantly being challenged today as catalytic giving has become a part and parcel of investment frameworks, state policy decisions, and corporate agendas worldwide. Our challenges today do not allow us the time and space to delay action toward collective well-being. Given Assam’s unique challenges, it is imperative that we rethink civil society engagements not as charity but as a professionally driven fundamental duty. This article is an attempt at realising some of these issues and bringing together corporate leaders, philanthropists, Non-Profits and multilaterals to start collaborating in order to build effective solutions together.

Despite Pakistan’s GDP Target Miss, Population Surges, Reveals Economic Survey

June 12, 2024, 4:35 pm

Despite Pakistan falling short of its GDP growth target, the nation’s Economic Survey for 2023-24 uncovers a remarkable trend: a significant surge in population.

Pakistan’s Finance Minister, Muhammad Aurangzeb, recently presented the Economic Survey 2023-24, outlining the nation’s socio-economic progress over the outgoing fiscal year. Despite aiming for a GDP growth rate of 3.5%, Pakistan fell short, achieving only 2.38%. This discrepancy was primarily attributed to underperformance in the industries and services sectors. However, the agricultural sector emerged as a beacon of growth, boasting a remarkable 6.25% expansion, marking the highest growth in 19 years and serving as a key driver of overall economic development.

In addition to the GDP figures, the survey indicated a notable reduction in inflation to 11.8%, coupled with a significant increase in GDP at current market prices, which surged to Rs.106,045 billion, representing a substantial 26.4% growth compared to the previous year.

Finance Minister Aurangzeb underscored the government’s dedication to addressing economic challenges, particularly by streamlining state-owned enterprises. He announced plans for the privatization of loss-making entities, including the national flag carrier, Pakistan International Airlines.

One striking aspect highlighted in the survey was the unexpected surge in Pakistan’s donkey population, which saw a notable 1.72% increase, reaching 5.9 million during the fiscal year 2023-24. This rise marks a steady progression from 5.5 million in 2019-2020, demonstrating ongoing growth in this sector. Furthermore, the survey reported increases in other livestock populations, including cattle, buffalo, sheep, and goats, showcasing the resilience of the agricultural industry amidst broader economic challenges.

On the Back of 8.2% GDP Growth for FY24, Modi Govt Seeks Third Term in Office

May 31, 2024, 11:19 pm

Ahead of the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections, India’s economy received a significant boost as government data unveiled a growth of 7.8 percent in the March quarter and a revised GDP of 8.2 percent for the full year, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

These latest GDP figures come just before the Lok Sabha election results are due. Prime Minister Modi, heading the ruling NDA coalition, expresses confidence in surpassing the 400-seat mark in the 543-member Lok Sabha.

The released GDP data highlights that India’s economy expanded by 7.8 percent in the March quarter, with an annual growth rate of 8.2 percent. However, the growth rate in the fourth quarter was slightly lower compared to the 8.6 percent expansion in the December quarter.

Notably, the GDP had grown by 6.2 percent in the January-March period of the 2022-23 fiscal year, according to the data. The NSO’s second advance estimate projected the country’s growth at 7.7 percent for 2023-24. Meanwhile, China reported an economic growth of 5.3 percent in the first three months of 2024.

Prime Minister Modi outlined his vision for a potential third term in office in an interview with HT earlier this month. He emphasized a focus on imparting momentum across sectors towards realizing this vision, including plans for the first 100 days of the government.

“I am committed to strengthening and structuring the GYANM model that empowers our Gareeb, Yuva, Annadata, Nari Shakti, and Middle Class in such a way that they become the architects of Viksit Bharat,” he stated.

PM Modi lauds Indian economy’s strength after 8.4 pc GDP growth in Q3

March 1, 2024, 11:07 am

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has once again reiterated that his government will continue in its mission to ensure India’s economic growth is on the upward trajectory soon after data showed that the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) had registered a robust 8.4 per cent growth in the third quarter of 2023-24. While stating that 8.4 per cent growth of the GDP shows the strength of the Indian economy, PM Modi added that the government will continue its efforts for fast economic growth to create ‘Viksit Bharat’.

In his post on X, PM Modi pointed out that the people of the country will lead a better life due to the fast economic growth. “Robust 8.4% GDP growth in Q3 2023-24 shows the strength of Indian economy and its potential. Our efforts will continue to bring fast economic growth which shall help 140 crore Indians lead a better life and create a Viksit Bharat!” he said.

India’s GDP grew at 8.4 per cent during the October-December quarter of the current financial year. India is already the fastest growing major economy of the world and has come out completely of the COVID pandemic induced slowdown which has derailed several other big countries.

India also has not faced any adverse impact of the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on the last two years, as well as the Israel-Hamas conflict in the middle east.

The Indian economy grew 7.8 per cent and 7.6 per cent during the preceding two quarters – April-June and July-September, data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation on Thursday showed.

Real GDP or GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 172.90 lakh crore, against the FRE (first revised estimates)of GDP for the year 2022-23 of Rs 160.71 lakh crore.

The growth rate of GDP during 2023-24 has been estimated at 7.6 per cent as compared to growth rate of 7 per cent in 2022-23.

Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2023-24 is estimated to attain a level of Rs 293.90 lakh crore, against Rs 269.50 lakh crore in 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 9.1 per cent.

GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 43.72 lakh crore, against Rs 40.35 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 8.4 per cent. GDP at Current Prices in Q3 of 2023-24 is estimated at Rs 75.49 lakh crore, as against Rs 68.58 lakh crore in Q3 of 2022-23, showing a growth rate of 10.1 per cent.

India’s real GDP growth for the current financial year ending in March 2024 is also pegged at 7 per cent by the Reserve Bank of India. It is 30 basis points lower than the National Statistics Office’s first estimates 7.3 per cent.

The strength of domestic demand has driven the economy to a 7 per cent plus growth rate in the last three years.

India’s economy grew 7.2 per cent in 2022-23 and 8.7 per cent in 2021-22, respectively.

The robustness seen in domestic demand — private consumption and investment — traces its origin to the reforms and measures implemented by the government over the last 10 years, Department of Economic Affairs under the Ministry of Finance had said earlier.

In the next three years, India is expected to become the third-largest economy in the world, with a GDP of USD 5 trillion.

(With Inputs From ANI)

Smriti Irani highlights importance of normalizing conversation about women’s health

January 18, 2024, 1:31 pm

Smriti Irani, the Union’s Minister of Women and Child Development, emphasized on Wednesday the significance of normalizing discussions about women’s health. One of the biggest issues, according to her, is that women’s healthcare systems and conversations have never been mainstreamed.

Speaking at a session linked to the Women’s Health Programme at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Smriti Irani said, “I think women’s healthcare systems or conversations never were mainstreamed and that has been one of the greatest challenges. How do you provide the solution to an issue that has never been spoken of? Mostly, there is a presumption that women do not want the psychological burden of their medical challenge to fall upon their family unit or hinder the economic progression of their contribution. And that is why they tend to either self-medicate or not medicate at all.”
She also spoke about the initiatives taken for women’s development after Prime Minister Narendra Modi took office in 2014. She said that 110 million toilets have been built in India under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

“From the Indian experience, let me provide you a big context,” Smriti Irani said, discussing the steps taken for women’s development after 2014. Following the election of Prime Minister Modi in 2010–11, a World Bank report stated that inadequate sanitary facilities for women would have a negative six percent impact on India’s GDP. That being said, if women choose to urinate in public right now, they run the risk of having their security violated.”

CAD slips to 1% of GDP in Q2, experts peg range of 1.5-1.8% of GDP in FY24

December 27, 2023, 4:41 am

India’s current account deficit posted a sharp decline to 1 per cent of the GDP at $ 8.3 billion in the September quarter of the current fiscal 2023-24, lower than the deficit of 1.1 per cent of the GDP at $ 9.2 billion in the first quarter of FY24 and deficit of 3.8 per cent of the GDP at $ 30.9 billion posted in the year ago period — Q2FY23, RBI data on Tuesday showed.

The Central bank attributed the lower CAD in Q2FY24 to the narrowing of merchandise trade deficit to $ 61.0 billion from $ 78.3 billion in Q2FY23. Services exports grew by 4.2 per cent on a y-o-y basis on the back of rising exports of software, business and travel services. Net services receipts increased both sequentially and on a y-o-y basis.
The CAD for Q2 FY2024 printed well below expectation of ICRA Ratings, led primarily by, what Aditi Nayar Chief Economist ICRA finds, a “smaller-than-anticipated merchandise trade deficit”. Nayar is of the view that following the expansion in the merchandise trade deficit in October 2023, the CAD for the ongoing quarter is expected to widen appreciably, to around $18-20 billion. “Nevertheless, we now foresee the FY2024 CAD in a range of 1.5-1.6 per cent of GDP, unless commodity prices chart a sharp rebound,” says Nayar.
Net outgo on the primary income account, primarily reflecting payments of investment income, increased to $ 12.2 billion from $ 11.8 billion a year ago.

Private transfer receipts, mainly representing remittances by Indians employed overseas, amounted to $ 28.1 billion, an increase of 2.6 per cent from their level during the corresponding period a year ago. In the financial account, net foreign direct investment witnessed an outflow of $ 0.3 billion as against an inflow of $ 6.2 billion in Q2FY23.
While foreign portfolio investment recorded net inflow of $ 4.9 billion, lower than $ 6.5 billion during Q2FY23, external commercial borrowings to India recorded net outflow of $ 1.8 billion in Q2FY24 as compared with net outflow of $ 0.5 billion in Q2FY23. Non-resident deposits recorded net inflow of $ 3.2 billion as compared with net inflow of $ 2.5 billion in Q2:2022-23. There was an accretion of foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis) to the tune of $ 2.5 billion in Q2FY24 as against a depletion of $ 30.4 billion in Q2FY23.

As for the balance of payments (BoP) status during the first half of the fiscal, H1FY24, India’s CAD moderated to 1.0 per cent of GDP from 2.9 per cent of GDP in H1FY23, again on the back of a lower merchandise trade deficit. Net invisibles receipts were higher in H1FY23 on a y-o-y basis primarily on account of higher net services receipts. Net FDI inflow at $ 4.8 billion in H1:2023-24 was lower than US$ 19.6 billion in H1:2022-23. Portfolio investment recorded a net inflow of $ 20.7 billion as against an outflow of $ 8.1 billion a year ago. In H1FY24, there was an accretion of $ 27.0 billion to the foreign exchange reserves (on a BoP basis).

Crisil Ratings projects India’s CAD, which was 2.0 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2023, to soften to 1.8 per cent this fiscal. In its outlook, Crisil notes that while the slackening in merchandise exports has moderated in recent months, it remains to be seen if this trend can sustain. With exports facing global headwinds in the form of an expected slowdown in the near term and uncertainties on account of the geopolitical situation, the expected deceleration in domestic growth in the second half of this fiscal should keep a check on imports. The services trade surplus remains robust and remittances are expected to remain healthy, according to a Crisil report.

Indian stocks firm on Q2 GDP numbers, Nifty reaching a record high

December 1, 2023, 11:56 am

On Friday morning, the final session before the weekend, Indian stock indices saw strong trading following the country’s announcement of higher-than-expected GDP growth in the July-September quarter of the 2023–24 fiscal year. At 20,263 points, the Nifty hit an all-time high today, closing 0.6% higher than it did in the previous session. Sensex opened this morning at 67,435 points, roughly 500 points below its record high. According to data released on Thursday, the Indian economy grew by 7.6% during the July–September quarter of the current fiscal year 2023–24, continuing to be the fastest-growing major economy.

“Sunil Gavaskar, The greatest opening batsman always took a fresh guard after reaching a milestone. It makes sense to take a fresh guard post market reaching all-time high,” said Nilesh Shah, MD Kotak Mahindra AMC.
“3G of Growth (earnings likely to be in the early to mid-teens), Governance (better than emerging market peers and comparable to developed world), and Green (lowest per capita carbon emitter in the world) gives confidence that it is time to stay on the pitch and score more runs,” Shah added.

IMF Executive Director: India’s GDP growth boosts quality, quantity of employment

November 7, 2023, 11:01 am

KV Subramanian, the Executive Director of the International Monetary Fund(IMF) and a former Chief Economic Advisor to the Indian government, discussed the benefits of India’s GDP growth for the employment situation. Subramanian stressed that there have been notable advancements in India’s employment quantity and quality, as evidenced by the trustworthy data from the Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS).

Subramanian said, “During the lockdown and during the second wave, the employment situation did worsen and this is something that is very clearly shown in the PLFS data which further enhances the trustworthiness of the PLFS data but if you look at overall now, the employment situation has improved significantly and has become better compared to pre COVID levels”.

Subramanian claims that the PLFS data shows a notable increase in the number of salaried and regular employees, which increased from 11.5 crores in 2017–18 to 13 crores, indicating a 13% improvement. With a notable increase of 29.4% among females and an 8.8% rise among males, this positive trend was evident in both groups. Additionally, there was an increase in formal employment of 1.2 crores, or 25.3%. Additionally, Subramanian noted that between 2017–18 and 2019–20, the unemployment rate (UR) in usual status dropped from 6.0% to 4.8%. The worker-population ratio (WPR) increased from 46.8% to 50.9 percent, while the labor force participation rate (LFPR) increased from 49.8% to 53.5%.

World Bank President Ajay Banga :”India’s G20 presidency set path for world”

September 10, 2023, 4:47 pm

Ajay Banga, the president of the World Bank, claimed on Sunday that India’s G20 presidency had paved the way for the rest of the world and praised the G20 declaration’s anonymous adoption by all G20 countries.

“I consider the fact that there was a declaration, a tribute to the fact that the G20 leadership found a way to give and take and negotiate and find a right way to agree and set a path for the world. The world is watching, the G20 has got the developed world and the developing countries,” Banga said. Banga emphasised that challenges will always exist but India had shown the way by working out a consensus.
He added, “80% of the world’s GDP was sitting in the room. If they would not agree that would not give a good message. I actually compliment India, its leadership and the G 20 leaders for being able to make sure that a terrific declaration comes out. There will always be challenges.”
“No 20 countries will agree on everything. People will have to look after their national interests. But I am optimistic by the mood I saw in that room” he added.

The G20 Delhi Declaration was approved earlier on Saturday. It urged nations to uphold international law, including the multilateral system that protects peace and stability as well as territorial integrity and international humanitarian law. The declaration envisions a green development pact for a sustainable future and supports, among other things, the Deccan Principles on Food Security and Nutrition, the Chennai Principles for a Sustainable Resilient Blue Economy, and high level principles on lifestyle for sustainable development.

The biggest takeaway from the declaration was that all 83 of its paragraphs were approved by a vote of 100% consensus, with China and Russia joining in. The declaration was the first to do so without a footnote or Chair’s Summary. Additionally, the African Union was admitted as a new permanent member of the G20 at the G20 meeting on Saturday, giving developing countries a bigger voice in international decision-making.

Indian stocks continue to rise with all sectoral indices in green

September 5, 2023, 10:44 am

The majority of sectoral indices tracked in the green in early trade on Tuesday, as Indian stock indices continued to hold steady. The benchmark indices Sensex and Nifty closed at 65,775.44 and 19,579.00, respectively, up 0.2-0.3% from the previous day.

“A significant trend in the market is the strength in IT index which is up 4.2 per cent in a week. Mid-cap IT has been doing well and now large-caps like HCL Tech, Infosys and Wipro have joined the rally. The order pipeline of IT companies is expected to improve on the back of the expected soft landing of the US economy,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Indian stock markets finally ended a five-week losing streak and gained nearly a per cent last week.

The Indian economy’s strong 7.8% GDP growth rate in the first quarter of 2023–2024 is likely to have boosted investor confidence recently. India continues to have the fastest-growing major economy, with a GDP growth of 7.8%. In light of this, Morgan Stanley has increased their economic growth forecast for India for the fiscal year 2024 after data from the April-June quarter showed the country expanded at its fastest rate in a year. The international investment bank increased its growth prediction from its initial estimate of 6.2 percent to 6.4 percent.

Indian market indices continue to remain firm; near all-time high

June 19, 2023, 10:57 am

As a result of a number of favourable factors, including a solid GDP projection, controlled inflation, and significant purchases by foreign investors, Indian stock indices moved slightly higher on monday morning.
The stock indices are very close to reaching record highs. The Sensex and Nifty were up 0.1 to 0.2% while this report was being written. The fact that the US central bank’s latest monetary policy stance – which finally paused the interest rate after raising it for over a year – also supported investors’ sentiment.
The US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy committee paused the key interest rate in its latest meeting on Wednesday. The policy rate has been maintained at 5.0-5.25 per cent, which was near zero after the outbreak of COVID-19. Barring the latest pause, the US central bank has hiked the interest rate for the tenth consecutive time which was necessitated in the fight against soaring inflation.
“The ongoing rally scaled new closing highs last Friday and is now within sight of a new all-time high, which is 18887 for the Nifty. There are two significant trends in the market now: One, this rally is broad-based with the participation of most sectors except large-cap IT. Two, mid and small-caps are outperforming large caps,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
Vijayakumar added the trend is likely to continue in the near term.
“We are now on the verge of making a new high after six months and indications are in the favour of prevailing tone to continue,” said Ajit Mishra, SVP – Technical Research, Religare Broking.

Indian stocks marginally increase after GDP numbers beat estimates

June 1, 2023, 10:38 am

The Indian stock markets began trading thursday slightly higher and maintained their upward trend. Overestimated GDP figures in India, consistent foreign investment, and the passage of the US debt ceiling bill by the US House of Representatives, which indicates that the debt impasse will be resolved and will lessen pressure on its economy, are some of the main factors supporting the stocks in domestic markets. As of the time this story was being written, the Sensex was up 0.13 percent, or 81 points, at 62,703 and the Nifty was up 0.17 percent, or 32 points, at 18,566. “There are many positives going in favour of the ongoing rally. One, the US House of Representatives has passed the US debt ceiling bill indicating that the debt impasse will be resolved. Two, the FPI investment in India continues with big investments during the last 3 days pushing the total investment in May to an impressive Rs 43838 crores,” said VK Vijayakumar, Chief Investment Strategist at Geojit Financial Services.
“Three, the Q4FY23 and full year FY23 GDP growth figures coming at 6.1 per cent and 7.2 per cent have impressively beaten the market expectations indicating that the FPI optimism is justified,” Vijayakumar said.
As per the provisional estimates released by the National Statistical Office (NSO), real GDP growth for 2022-23 stood at 7.2 per cent, higher than the 7 per cent projected.
The latest decline in crude oil prices is another positive factor supporting the rally in stocks.
“These positives, particularly the GDP numbers, can impart resilience to the market. The only concern is the rising valuations which might nudge DIIs to sell thereby neutralising the FPI buying,” Vijayakumar added. Anantha Nageswaran, India’s chief economic adviser, told reporters on Wednesday that he anticipates a higher revision to India’s GDP figures for 2022–2023 in the future.
As the House approved the US debt ceiling agreement to prevent default, stocks in other Asian markets were mixed on Thursday, according to analysts.

Bangladesh’s GDP growth to overtake China, IMF report forecasts

May 8, 2023, 5:17 pm

Bangladesh’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate in the current fiscal year will overtake China, the International Monetary Fund’s latest report on the Asia-Pacific region forecast, according to Daily Sun citing United News of Bangladesh.

According to the latest report from the IMF, Bangladesh will be in the second position, after Vietnam, in terms of GDP growth rate in the current fiscal year. IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook for Asia and Pacific May 2023 report also predicted that Bangladesh may surpass China in terms of growth in 2024.

In Bangladesh, the GDP growth rate will slow to 5.5 per cent in 2023 because of demand-management measures, which is still higher than China’s projected growth rate of 5.2 per cent, reported Daily Sun.

However, the economy of China is much bigger than that of Bangladesh.
The IMF report suggests that the recently approved Extended Fund Facility for Bangladesh will help address economic challenges caused by Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the Resilience and Sustainability Facility arrangement will expand fiscal space to finance climate investment priorities and build resilience against long-term climate risks.

The report highlights the importance of international cooperation, particularly in securing financial assistance for climate change adaptation in vulnerable emerging markets in the region, including Bangladesh and the Pacific Islands, Daily Sun reported.
Despite the rapid economic development in Bangladesh, IMF official raised concerns about some of the country’s macroeconomic indicators.

Income loss of 5.4 pc to India due to heatwave

October 21, 2022, 12:46 pm

An income loss of 5.4 per cent of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was suffered by India. It is the highest among the G20 nations in 2021, according to the new report by Climate Transparency.

Experts from 16 partner organisations from the majority of the G20 group countries developed the “Climate Transparency Report.” It revealed that India witnessed a record heatwave which greatly affected workers, labour migrants, low-income households and the homeless. It also reduced the yields of wheat crops, which would have been useful to address supply shortages caused by the war in Ukraine.

India is responsible for 3 per cent of the global emissions, but despite this fact, 142 milllion people in India maybe exposed or roughly 10 pc of the population to summer heatwaves at 1.5 degree celsius.

According to the report, exposure to greater temperatures and the ensuing shortening of working hours have resulted in significant income losses in services, industry, agriculture, and construction.
The United States, which accounts for 25% of world emissions, came out on top, with the European Union coming in second with 22%. However, India accounts for only 3% of the world’s emissions.

“G20 members account for around 85 percent of global GDP, 75 percent of international trade, and two-thirds of the world’s population, and are responsible for around three-quarters of global emissions,” the report reads.

“To limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, the G20, therefore, carries a high responsibility. For developed countries, this includes providing climate finance to assist developing countries’ mitigation and adaptation actions, “the report added.

The Climate Transparency Report 2022 claims that the G20 countries are still not acting with the required level of accountability.
According to the Climate Action Tracker, despite the fact that a number of nations, including India, have over time submitted stronger Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) targets, their total level of action and ambition is still insufficient to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius.

“The combined mitigation effect of all 2030 targets assessed is projected to lead to warming of 2.4 degrees Celsius, with current policies leading to a 2.7 degree Celsius world by 2100. “This underlines the urgent need for G20 members to strengthen current climate policies, intensify implementation, and submit more ambitious 2030 targets that align with midcentury net zero targets,” the report reads.

RBI raises the repo rate by 50 basis points to a three-year high of 5.9%, with GDP expected to grow at 7%

September 30, 2022, 11:27 am

RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das announced on Friday that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the central bank raised the repo rate, or key lending rate, by 50 basis points (bps) to a three-year high of 5.9 percent. The country is expected to have a real GDP of 7%, which has been reduced from 7.25% previously predicted. “We are awake, ever vigilant, ever striving,” the RBI Governor said during his speech, highlighting the steps taken to address global challenges and emphasising the resilience of the national economy.

“The global economy is in the eye of storm but India has withstood shocks over the last two years,” RBI governor said, adding that the inflation is hovering around 7 per cent and is expected to remain around 6 per cent in the second half of the year.

“Daunting challenges await us,” he said, referring to the Ukraine war, which began in February. “A series of measures have been implemented since April 2022 in the backdrop of geopolitical tensions, which have also hampered global supply.” “The inflation rate is expected to be 6.7%,” he said. “In the face of current conditions, the MPC must remain alert and nimble.” In the first quarter, GDP increased by 13.5% year on year, he said. “While real GDP growth in the first quarter of this year was lower than expected, it was still 13.5 percent, possibly the highest among the major global economies,” he added.

Markets opened in the red ahead of the critical statement, with the Sensex at 56,254. The Nifty 50 index of the National Stock Exchange (NSE) was down 0.3% at 16,776. A Reuters poll conducted ahead of the statement found that a slim majority of economists expected a 50 basis point increase, with some expecting a smaller 35 basis point increase.

Last month, the MPC announced another 50 basis point increase in the repo rate (one basis point is one hundredth of a percentage point), bringing it to 5.4%, a level last seen in September 2019. It was the MPC’s third consecutive rate hike since its unexpected May 2022 meeting. The key committee also maintained its inflation and GDP growth projections for fiscal year 2022-23 at 6.7% and 7.2%, respectively.

According to reports, the MPC has raised the key policy rate by 190 basis points since May to cool domestic retail inflation, which has remained above the RBI’s upper tolerance limit of 6% since January.

“The inflation trajectory remains clouded with uncertainties arising from continuing geopolitical tensions and nervous global financial market sentiments. In this backdrop, MPC was of the view that persistence of high inflation, necessitates further calibrated withdrawal of monetary accommodation to restrain broadening of price pressures, anchor inflation expectations and contain the second round effects. This action will support the medium-term growth prospects of our economy,” Shaktikanta Das stressed on Friday.

PM MODI TARGETS AATMANIRBHAR BHARAT GROWTH IN ‘V’ SHAPE

December 16, 2020, 3:40 am

The growth rate of the GDP is usually considered the primary indicator of the health of a country’s economy, along with its forex reserves, fiscal deficit/surplus and current account deficit/surplus, tax collections and debt to GDP. Deficit is not always a negative factor, if it is reasonable and within the limits defined by international and domestic standards and practices. However, in extraordinary or abnormal situations which are beyond human control, like the Covid-19 pandemic, facts and figures should be considered practically and represented to portray a true and fair picture instead of creating a fear of uncertainties.

It is imperative to assess the size of economy in correlation to the size of tax collections and their growth from one period to another in order to come at a reasonable conclusion under normal conditions. At present, we are going through the ‘Unlock’ phase, and in such a situation, the growth in GST collections vis-à-vis the GDP is pivotal for assessing the performance of the economy. An increase or decrease in GST collections can be correlated to increases or decreases in the rate of consumer consumption, manufacturing input consumption for production output, exports and imports, investments in manufacturing and service sectors, employment, etc. Though all these factors may not register impacts according to changes in GST, the direction of its overall performance compared to these key considerations swings in a similar direction.

GST COLLECTIONS FOR Q1

GST COLLECTIONS FOR Q2 AND Q3

Currently, we need to evaluate data with care keeping in mind the factor of uncertainty and its possible influence on the future, instead of using any negative results to target the government. Many are trying their best to attack the Narendra Modi government, which has brought out the Aatmanirbhar Bharat package to handle the uncertainties during the pandemic and to ensure the smooth functioning of day-to-day economic operations of individuals and industries.

Many had raised their voices about the economy when the results of the first quarter, i.e. April to June of FY 2021-22, had registered a GDP growth rate lower by 23.9% with lower GST collections, as compared with the same period in the previous year. The difference of Rs 1,28,873 crore between the GST collections for the first quarter of the current financial year (2020-21) to the previous (2019-20) meant a growth of -41.03%.

But this decrease had come with the pandemic and the nationwide lockdown. The Modi government then announced the Aatmanirbhar Bharat package in order to boost consumption by pumping adequate liquidity into the system in different categories as per the requirements, in which Rs 3 lakh crore were allocated for MSME, directly and through NBFCs, and equity participation for around Rs 75 thousand crore, for safeguarding them so they could operate smoothly and improve its share in the GDP from the existing 30% share. Apart from this, the agriculture sector had been given utmost priority and provided with credit facilities even during the first phase of the lockdown. The union government allocated Rs 75,000 crore to procure agricultural output at MSP during this period, in addition to providing Rs 1 lakh crore towards storage infrastructure for agricultural output. Direct cash transfer of Rs 500 per month for a period of six months to 80 crore people living below the poverty line was also provided to assist their consumption needs along with food grains. Meanwhile, the PM SVANidhi scheme provided credit facility to street vendors up to Rs 10,000 with a 7% interest subsidy.

All these assistance measures given by the Union government had intended to improve month-by-month economic activities in the country during the period of the pandemic. But Congress leader Rahul Gandhi tried to politicise the (-)23.9% contraction in GDP growth as a permanent decline in the country’s economy due to the inefficiency and incompetence of the Modi government. A few Left-oriented intellectuals also joined in that chorus. However, similar conditions were seen across the globe. Advanced and developed nations were no exceptions too. On the other hand, PM Narendra Modi gave priority to providing assistance to the poor and during the lockdown and reviving commercial activities in the phased Unlock period.

Keeping in view the intensity of the Covid-19 pandemic, a few rating agencies, institutions and experts had projected the contraction in GDP around (-)10.50% to (-)12.50% in India for the current financial year, which counts tax collections, investments and employment opportunities. As against those projections, a significant surge in economic activities has been noticed in the second quarter of the current financial year, when compared to the first quarter, due to the Aatmanirbhar Bharat package. The contraction in GDP growth minimised to (-)7.5%, although it was expected to be (-)9.5% in the second quarter. It must be noted that the pandemic and lockdown had been in progress during the second quarter also. But the Narendra Modi government and the RBI have reposed the public’s confidence in a slow but steady recovery.

A significant recovery in GST collections was also registered. When compared with the first quarter’s results, there was a shortage in collections, but the Manufacturing Index or Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) improved during the second quarter. These have been key indicators of the performance of the economy in the present and to predict for the remaining period of the current FY.

The growth in GST collections, when compared for the months of July, August, September, October and November, was -14%, -8% , 5%, 10% and 1%, respectively. This shows the trajectory of the recovery of our economy in a “V” shape. Apart from this, PMI, which is one of the key indicators for evaluating manufacturing activity, is expected to be at 50 points. Prior to the lockdown, it was between 52 and 55 points between January and March during the current calendar year. But, after the lockdown, it declined to 27.4 in April, 30.8 in May, 47.2 in June, and 46 in July. Since then, it has improved to reach the normal as in August, it stood at 52, in September, at 56.8, in October, it was 58.9, and in November, it was 56.3. Hence, there is a clear positive uptrend in GST collections as well as PMI points from September 2020.

When manufacturing activity grows, unemployment is also minimised. Migrant labourers, who are key players in the economy, had faced serious problems due to the lockdown, which had been used for political means by the Opposition. But PM Modi gave utmost priority to safeguard their lives from the pandemic as well as allocated specific funds and resources to transport them to their homes with food and shelter, with the coordination of the state governments. Rs 50,000 crore was also allocated for the MGNREGA in addition to the budgetary allocations.

India has now registered the highest total forex reserves, at more than $575 billion and achieved the highest inflows at $13.5 billion in Foreign Portfolio Investments (PFI) among emerging economies. Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) inflows also surged at 16% from April to September 2020 and achieved $39.90 billion. Although there was a contraction of 60% in the first quarter, it improved in the second. This recovery has also been possible due to the determination and timely decisions of the Modi government.

A few are spreading propaganda against the government to create panic among the public, but even they know that the economy will recover positively after the government’s timely reaction. However, we should evaluate, analyse and report data in its true sense rather than spitting venom at anyone. Instead of settling political scores, it is more important to behave as responsible citizens. We should now look at why the RBI and CRISIL revised the projected GDP contraction from (-)9.5% to (-)7.5%. We should focus on the measures taken by the government and how it has achieved such positive results. Only then will we know that there is no doubt that our country is heading towards a $5 trillion economy in the next five years and a self-reliant Bharat under the leadership of PM Modi.

The writer holds a degree in commerce and works as an FCA.