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China Urges US to ‘Fully Cancel’ Tariffs, Electronics Exemption ‘Not Enough’

April 13, 2025, 6:54 pm

China has reacted sharply to President Donald Trump’s recent exclusion of consumer electronics from his broad 145% tariffs on Chinese imports, terming the action a “small step” and calling for a complete reversal of what it terms a “mistaken policy.”

The Chinese Commerce Ministry called on the US to return to the path of mutual respect and to drop the economic aggression contained in these tariffs. As pressure mounts on both sides, the future of global tech supply chains and US-China trade relations remains uncertain.

The US tech sector may have dodged one bullet—for now—but China’s pushback signals a broader fight that’s far from over.

China demands more

The Chinese government informed that Trump’s exemption from tariffs on phones and laptops is insufficient to undo the harm caused already. Issuing a stern statement, the Commerce Ministry asked the US to “completely cancel” the tit-for-tat tariffs and return to a “normal and respectful” trade conversation.

China is urging the US to completely cancel tariffs. They believe the US has made mistakes and should stop practicing reciprocal tariffs and return to mutual respect. pic.twitter.com/675jj91aoA

— Nucleus (@NewsNucleus) April 13, 2025

This indicates China is dissatisfied with partial relief and is seeking a full reversal—portraying the tariffs as a violation of global trade norms.

Tech giants get breathing room

Apple, Nvidia, Dell, and other US tech firms are among the largest beneficiaries of the exemptions. Much of their products—smartphones, semiconductors, laptops—will now evade debilitating import tariffs. Nonetheless, some such as Apple’s Mac Studio will still be subject to a 20% charge. With much production based in China, US tech companies remain very exposed if the larger trade war re-escalates.

Supply chains are still on edge

Even as the electronics tariff reprieve stands, the bigger picture supply chain environment is just as bleak. Companies that rely on uninterrupted trade flows are as yet still living with uncertainty, shipping delays, and increased manufacturing costs. Others worry that tariffs will come back in full strength or spread into new product classes, leaving them in limbo with long contracts and unstable prices.

Global trade architecture faces a stress test

China’s blunt diplomatic rhetoric reveals that this isn’t merely about commerce—it’s about positioning on the world stage. Experts sound the alarm that if the Trump China tariffs continue, they can permanently damage the world’s most vital economic relationship. The reverberations will destabilize anything from commodity prices to emerging-market currencies.

While the US technology industry cheers a close call, the bigger picture is still dangerous. China is ramping up demands, and Trump’s camp has displayed little indication of folding any further. Short of a breakthrough, the trade war may be back more aggressively—and destructively—than ever.

Trump ‘Pauses’ Again? No Tariffs On Phones, Laptops, Including From China

April 13, 2025, 11:37 am

In a sudden policy shift, the Trump administration has temporarily exempted smartphones, laptops, and essential electronics from steep tariffs on Chinese imports. The action, taking effect on April 5, 2025, brings relief to technology giants like Apple, Dell, and Nvidia. These firms heavily depend on global supply chains and Chinese factories.

The exemptions include essential items under the catch-all 8471 tariff code. These include laptops, semiconductors, memory chips, and flat-panel displays. Though these electronics escape Trump’s 125% retaliatory levies, other charges associated with the US fentanyl crisis persist.

Trump’s policies are too volatile

Smartphones, PCs, & semiconductor equipment’s are exempt from new tariffs

This means no 145% tariff on smartphones & PC products, including those imported from China

All Big Tech can continue operations without disruption

Administration… pic.twitter.com/dWg6lPgSs0

— Equity Insights Elite (@EquityInsightss) April 12, 2025

This change signals a delicate balancing act—shield American manufacturing without shattering the technology industry or adding to inflation-plagued consumers’ burdens. The timing is also driven by political pressure on Wall Street, midterm election pressures, and supply chain pandemonium caused by the current trade war.

Relief for US Consumers and Tech Giants

The exemptions come at a critical moment. Analysts had warned that tariffs could push the price of a high-end iPhone to $2,300—sparking consumer outrage in an inflation-hit economy.

Apple had already begun shipping iPhones into the country from India to avoid Chinese tariffs. With the exception now in force, tech companies can sleep sounder. “The most bullish news” Big Tech has gotten this month was described by Dan Ives of Wedbush as such.

Major tech company shares jumped on the news.

Tensions with China continue to be high. Beijing quickly retaliated with its own tariffs after Trump increased rates to 125%.

However, the notice from the US Customs and Border Protection defused the tension somewhat by exempting critical tech imports. Trump’s strategy now seems more targeted—punish China on trade and fentanyl, but spare domestic tech.

He also intends a national security investigation of chip imports. That might result in additional tariffs. But electronics are in the clear for now.

Global Supply Chains Shift Under Pressure

The tariff reprieve comes as businesses scramble to localize production. Apple, Nvidia, and Taiwan Semiconductor are accelerating US factory plans under White House pressure.

Trump’s hard line has divided Republicans. Some support his vision of trade restructuring. Others worry about a recession or losing the House in the midterms.

Nevertheless, Trump maintains that the tariffs are mending a broken system and bringing tech manufacturing back home.

Tariffs Crush US Companies, Spark 188 Bankruptcies in 2025

April 11, 2025, 5:32 pm

In Q1 2025, US businesses filed for bankruptcy at a record pace since the 2008 crisis. There were 188 big business filings—more than 139 in the corresponding period last year. This huge increase shows the effect of the Trump tariffs 2025 on US bankruptcies. President Donald Trump’s blanket import tariffs—beginning at 10% on all items and rising to 145% on Chinese imports—have sent business expenses significantly higher. Companies already reeling from high interest rates now must deal with more burdensome operating costs. Consumer brands such as Forever 21, 23andMe, and Hooters have been most affected. Trump claims his tariffs shield American jobs, but increased bankruptcies indicate underlying economic distress.

Bankruptcy Surge Amid Tariff Shock

The 188 corporate bankruptcies in Q1 2025 were the worst quarter since 2010, reports S&P Global Market Intelligence. Forever 21’s US owner, Mitel Networks, Village Roadshow, 23andMe, and Hooters of America filed for bankruptcy in March alone. Analysts attribute increasing financial strain, exacerbated by new tariffs and the difficulty of refinancing debt at higher interest rates.

Tariffs Fuel Economic Strain

Trump’s “reciprocal tariffs” policy, initiated on April 2, set a minimum 10% tariff on all imports. Beginning April 9, products from 57 countries incurred even higher duties. While the US deferred the increase for 90 days for most countries—except China—the new floor is significantly higher than previous levels. Economists caution that these tariffs increase the cost of production and consumer prices. That, in turn, dampens demand, reduces investment, and depresses confidence.

Consumer Segments Feel the Pain

Retail and hospitality companies, already weak, are now crumbling under the pressure. Increased cost of imported products has resulted in price increases, dampening consumption. Thinly capitalized and high-debt brands can’t bear the additional burden. Consequently, the consumer sector has witnessed a spate of bankruptcies and business shutdowns.

Bigger Trouble for the Economy

This surge of bankruptcies can pull down the entire economy. It threatens jobs, discourages consumer spending, and slows business activity. Globally, the tariffs discombobulate supply chains and strain trade relationships. Though Trump seeks to shield American industries, the repercussions demonstrate the cost of trade brinksmanship.

The Trump tariffs might be assertive, but the rising bankruptcies indicate that businesses—and the economy—are paying the cost.

Australia and New Zealand Lead Global Rebellion Against US Tariffs

April 10, 2025, 5:47 pm

Australia and New Zealand are leading the way in defending free trade after US President Donald Trump rocked markets by imposing sweeping tariffs on dozens of nations. Although Trump has suspended the levies for 90 days, the damage is done. His trade policy has shaken global markets, prompting regional players to act fast.

Now, nations from across the Asia-Pacific and Europe are coming together to save the rules-based system. This emerging coalition works to mitigate the shock of the intensifying trade war and calibrate international business. That’s why “free trade vs Trump tariffs” has become a classic economic struggle of 2025.

Trump’s tariffs provoke global dread

Trump’s move to impose high import tariffs has thrown global trade into disarray. China hit back with retaliatory tariffs. Other nations, such as those in Europe, are considering their next step. The US President subsequently postponed tariffs on many countries—leaving out China—but the threat remains. Markets responded quickly. Stocks plummeted while safe-haven assets such as gold rallied. The 90-day break has provided countries with little comfort. Many now worry about more profound, longer-term trade dislocations.

New Zealand Forges Pro-Trade Alliances

New Zealand PM Christopher Luxon is sounding the alarm to build more trade alliances. He met with the leaders of Singapore, Vietnam, Malaysia, and the EU. His mission: mobilize forces for free trade and defend the international system. Luxon said CPTTP countries should act together with the EU to push back against America’s protectionism.

He reminded that countries must act now and not later. “We can’t make the case for New Zealand sitting on the couch,” Luxon said in a speech to the Wellington Chamber of Commerce. He will later travel to the UK to meet with Prime Minister Keir Starmer to discuss trade and security.

Australia engages Asia and EU

Australia is also quietly doing its bit. Foreign Minister Penny Wong has reported that ministers have spoken with Japan, India, Korea, and Southeast Asian countries. Like New Zealand, Australia believes in open and fair trade. “There is a group of countries who see the benefit,” Wong explained. Canberra and Wellington will not retaliate against the US just yet. But they’re strengthening their bloc of like-minded economies to constrain America’s influence.

The increasing tensions have prompted nations to rethink trade strategy. Australia and New Zealand seek to prevent trade wars from becoming the new norm. With CPTPP member support and backing from the EU, they wish to reaffirm the importance of open markets. This alliance would act as a counterweight to the US and China. The path ahead will be difficult. But in a world torn apart, these countries are placing their bets on unity—and free trade—to safeguard their future.

India Eyes $500B US Trade Deal as Trump Hits Pause on Tariffs

April 10, 2025, 4:34 pm

India is speeding up negotiations to seal a broad trade agreement following President Donald Trump’s decision to suspend new tariffs on various countries, including India, for 90 days. The action is a relief to major Indian industries such as shrimp, electronics, and gems and jewelry, which were threatened by increasing US duties. At the same time, the US has aggressively raised tariffs on Chinese imports, creating room for India to become a reliable trade partner and substitute supply source.

With both countries aiming at $500 billion in two-way trade by 2030, India is urging to finalize the first phase of the deal within this timeframe. The trade negotiations also serve India’s wider interests—increasing exports, stemming Chinese dumping, and obtaining secure market access in the face of changing global trade patterns. This is an opportunity to redefine the future of India-US trade ties and cement India’s strategic position in the post-China world order.

Momentum Builds After Tariff Pause

The US administration’s move to suspend new tariffs offers a critical window for India to push forward trade negotiations. This is particularly welcome for industries such as seafood and electronics, which were facing the brunt of impending duties. The suspension gives these industries time to re-evaluate and negotiate better trade terms.

Early Leadership in Talks

India has been active in advancing trade talks with the US, and the two countries reached an agreement in February to advance the first stage of a trade agreement to enhance bilateral trade to $500 billion by 2030. India’s commerce ministry is driving the efforts, citing the need for access to the US market to facilitate India’s economic growth.

India as a Strategic Trade Ally

As US-China trade tensions continue to increase, India is positioning itself as a dependable option in international supply chains. In line with reports by the Deccan Herald, the US tariffs are reconstructing global supply chains, with India poised to benefit from such reconfiguration. Furthermore, based on reports from the Wall Street Journal, the US is aggressively pushing India as an alternative supply chain to China since it identifies India’s potential in playing critical manufacturing and export roles.

Aside from temporary tariffs relief, India is tightening up import inspections to check dumping, specifically from China. The temporary hold on tariffs offers both countries a chance to sit down and talk lasting fixes. This trade agreement is not simply about short-term gain but about becoming a prime mover in the changing world of trade.

Trump Hits India With High Tariffs, Still Calls It a ‘Strategic Ally’

April 9, 2025, 12:53 pm

US President Donald Trump has imposed some of the highest tariffs on India, but the gesture is not emotive. Rather, it is an expression of a wider strategic rebalancing. During Trump’s second term, nations such as India, South Korea, Japan, and even Israel are facing high tariffs. Meanwhile, long-time competitors like Russia are off the hook. Trump’s 26% tariffs on India are not a symptom of frayed relations but a symptom of a geopolitical realignment in the way America interacts with the world. Experts say these actions are driven by both foreign policy and domestic politics, as Washington rewrites its role in the world in a post-Cold War era.

India Hit Hard, But Remains Central to US Strategy

Despite the hard tariffs, India is at the heart of US foreign policy. As international affairs scholar Max Abrahms put it, India is “paramount” in countering the rise of China. Trump’s White House regards India not merely as an ally, but as a key actor in the Indo-Pacific. The Quad alliance and increasing military ties demonstrate that strategic collaboration remains robust.

Actually, even Israel, America’s close friend, is being targeted—tariffs of 17%. Obviously, tariff levels don’t indicate affection or hatred. Rather, they indicate a change in the way America defends its interests. India’s democratic ideology, surging economy, and youth population render it too significant to estrange, even as tensions rise.

A Global Strategy Supported by Domestic Politics

Trump tariffs strategy is a break from the past American playbook. The unipolar moment is passing. Today, America is leaning towards a multipolar world, and protectionism is a means to push back. Internationally, the MAGA base pressures protectionism and resists globalization. That pressure informs trade choices, even if it strains relationships with allies.

Still, India is responding. It’s reportedly considering cutting tariffs on $23 billion in U.S. goods. This shows Delhi’s willingness to manage tensions while safeguarding its own interests.

Ultimately, Trump’s tariffs are not personal. They’re part of a larger strategy. But they leave allies like India walking a tightrope—balancing diplomacy, economics, and long-term security in a world that’s shifting fast.

Apple Ditches China: Turns to India to Dodge Trump’s Tariffs

April 8, 2025, 2:07 pm

Apple is accelerating its iPhone exports from India to the US in a bid to dodge fresh tariffs imposed by US President Donald Trump on Chinese goods. With Apple shares plummeting 19% in just three days—the worst fall in 25 years—the move underscores the rising strategic importance of India in Apple’s global supply chain. While the shift is currently tactical, industry experts say India could emerge as a long-term production base for the tech giant amid deepening US-China trade tensions.

Tariff Heat Forces Apple’s Hand

Trump’s new tariffs—reaching as high as 54% on Chinese exports of technology—have put Apple in crisis mode, with estimated losses of $8.5 billion a year if exemptions are not provided. The company remains heavily dependent on China’s production, and it faces a $300 price boost per iPhone 16 Pro. In reaction, Apple has ramped up shipments from India, where retaliatory tariffs are 26%. Only days ahead of the April 5 tariff increase, five cargo planes loaded with iPhones and accessories were flown from India to the US in a stockpiling maneuver. This move underscores India’s increasing status as Apple’s backup hub during times of trade tensions. Indian officials said the company increased production to supply US demand and cushion the shock of abrupt cost increases. While still short of full decoupling from China, the action is a strategic rebalancing within Apple’s global supply chain.

India: From Backup to Backbone?

Apple’s production in India has jumped significantly since 2017, initially limited to older models. Now, top-end iPhones like the 16 Pro are also being assembled here. India’s cost and tariff advantage—combined with policy support and growing tech capacity—makes it a viable long-term manufacturing hub. It also helps that Vietnam, once Apple’s other alternative, now faces tariffs of up to 46%.

India’s edge goes beyond short-term economics. As one of the fastest-growing smartphone markets, it offers both manufacturing capacity and a huge consumer base. Apple already leads India’s $9 billion smartphone export sector to the US. If global tensions persist, India may become Apple’s go-to production engine for both domestic and global markets.

Apple’s bet on India isn’t just about avoiding tariffs. It’s a broader play for stability, scale, and strategic depth in an increasingly volatile global trade landscape.

Indian Stock Market Roars Back, Regains ₹12,000 Cr in a Day

April 8, 2025, 1:35 pm

The Indian stock market rebound on Tuesday was a welcome relief after Monday’s historic crash precipitated by new US tariffs. Driven by a 1,283-point rally in the Sensex and a 415-point rise in the Nifty, the rebound allowed investors to regain some confidence. Although volatility is still an issue, general global cues and India’s good fundamentals provided comfort that the panic could be fleeting. The rebound also comes at a time when there are simmering US-China trade tensions, with President Trump signaling the possibility of raising tariffs on Chinese imports by 50%, creating anxiety in markets.

Global Sentiment Lifts Dalal Street

The rally on Tuesday was not triggered by local drivers. Peer markets in the region such as Japan’s Nikkei, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng, and South Korea’s Kospi recorded robust gains after the fall on Monday. These signals lifted Dalal Street investor sentiment. Back home, almost all 30 Sensex stocks were in the positive, led by TCS alone. Top gainers were Adani Ports, Bajaj Finserv, Axis Bank, and Tata Steel. The bounce was also aided by robust DII inflows, which beat foreign outflows. While FIIs offloaded more than ₹9,000 crore worth of equities on Monday, DIIs purchased more than ₹12,000 crore, as per exchange data.

Indian Market Bounces Back with Conviction

The bounce came in the face of persistent concerns over US-China trade wars. Trump’s threat of tariffs can hurt Chinese exports severely, but analysts feel Indian stock market will remain insulated—due to ongoing bilateral negotiations with Washington. India’s economic fundamentals are also keeping investor jitters in check. The Economic Survey projected 6.3%–6.8% GDP growth for FY25, while the government is expecting 6.5% in FY26. Meanwhile, Brent crude’s minor increase still keeps oil prices in check for India.

The larger worry today is not tariffs, but volatility. The India VIX rose almost 70%, indicating consistent jitters. While experts expect resistance at 22,660 on the Nifty, long-term gains will hinge on worldwide tranquility and stable policy cues. For the moment, India has avoided a deeper rout—but investors must prepare for a rough ride.

India vs. Trump: Pharma Escapes, But Can the Rest of India’s Economy Survive? | TDG Explainer

April 4, 2025, 12:55 pm

US President Donald Trump’s recent declaration of ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs has shaken the world of global trade. Announced on April 2, 2025, the far-reaching steps impose a tariff of 27% on India, impacting its exports to the US. This move is part of Trump’s larger economic strategy to bring back American jobs and reduce reliance on foreign products.

For India, the effect is sector-specific. While certain industries are likely to suffer heavy losses due to increased costs, others may gain a competitive advantage. The pharma industry has emerged as a clear winner, benefiting from an exemption from extra duties. However, sectors like gems and jewellery, agriculture, and apparel face major challenges, with price pressures and reduced competitiveness in the US market.

With the new tariffs now in place, India’s policymakers are rushing to assess the economic impact and explore negotiation strategies to minimize damage. This explainer breaks down the winners and losers across India’s key industries.

Pharma Industry: A Big Win for Indian Drug Manufacturers

The Indian drug industry has come out largely unaffected by Trump’s tariff policy. The US has exempted pharmaceutical imports from further duties, acknowledging its reliance on cheap generic medicines from India. Indian firms provide close to 50% of all generic medicines used in the US, and they are an integral part of the American healthcare system.

Investor confidence rose after the tariff announcement, with Indian pharma stocks rallying:

– Lupin Ltd increased by 4.26% to Rs 2,095 per share.

– Sun Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd went up by 3.26% to Rs 1,770 per share.

– Cipla Ltd increased by 2.92% to Rs 1,495 per share.

The exemption maintains Indian drug producers extremely competitive in the US market. It also keeps medicines affordable for American consumers as Chinese and European options are expensive. For Indian pharmaceutical firms, the move ensures sustainable growth and asserts their control in international generic drug business.

Apparel Industry: Short-Term Setback, Long-Term Benefits

India’s $7 billion garment export market has been severely affected, with new tariffs significantly increasing the cost. The US has been one of the key markets for Indian textile exports, but the 27% tariff makes Indian clothing less competitive in the short run.

This is particularly difficult for small and medium-sized textile producers, who already work on wafer-thin margins. Firms such as Apollo Fashion International, a prominent Indian apparel export firm, have complained of lower demand and price pressures.

But a silver lining is on the horizon. India’s main rivals in the garment industry—China, Vietnam, and Bangladesh—have been subject to even higher tariffs:

> China: 54% tariff

> Vietnam: 46% tariff

> Bangladesh: 37% tariff

This renders Indian clothing comparatively cheaper in the US market in the long term. Should US consumers divert purchasing from higher-tariff nations, India might ultimately experience greater demand even in spite of the current problems.

Experts in fashion industry analysis believe Indian clothing manufacturers might face difficulties in the short term, but altered trade patterns might see a long-term export increase.

IT Services: Insulated but Exposed to Indirect Threats

India’s IT industry, a key contributor to the Indian economy, is totally untouched by the new tariffs. This is due to the fact that Trump’s actions pertain only to physical products and not services.

With software exports worth $205.2 billion in FY24, Indian IT firms rely immensely on US clients. As there are no new trade barriers to services, companies such as TCS, Infosys, and Wipro can continue outsourcing and consulting businesses uninterrupted.

But analysts warn of indirect risks. If the tariffs reduce US economic growth, US companies will likely reduce spending on technology. That would indirectly hit demand for Indian IT services in the long term.

Indian technology companies are presently well-placed, but they need to watch US market conditions closely.

Agriculture: Shrimp, Rice, and Meat Exporters Prepare for Massive Losses

Agriculture is among the most affected industries under the new tariffs. The US is India’s biggest market for agricultural imports, buying more than $5 billion worth of products in 2024. With the new tariff of 27%, Indian farmers and exporters are preparing for significant losses.

Shrimp Exports

The US is India’s biggest customer for shrimp, one of the nation’s most lucrative agricultural exports.

But Ecuador, being a major rival, pays only a 10% duty, and its shrimp will be more appealing to US consumers.

This might cause Indian shrimp exports to decline as consumers move to lower-priced substitutes.

Rice and Buffalo Meat

India is the global leader in basmati rice exports, with the US being one of its most important customers.

The 27% tariff might lower the demand since American consumers can turn towards lower-priced sources in Thailand and Pakistan.

Buffalo meat exports, the other large industry, will also be adversely impacted by increased prices.

The Seafood Exporters Association of India has cautioned that the overall tariff burden (countervailing duty included) could be as high as 33%, rendering Indian seafood exports extremely uncompetitive in the US market.

Gems and Jewellery: The Worst-Hit Sector

India’s gems and jewellery sector, which shipped $9.9 billion worth of products to the US in FY24, suffers the largest losses under Trump’s tariff proposal.

Earlier, polished diamonds were duty-free, enabling India to dominate the US jewellery market. But the new tariffs bring in huge cost hikes:

Polished diamond tariffs go up from 0% to 27%.

Gold jewellery tariffs increase from 5–7% to 32%.

This sudden hike in expenses may discourage US importers, and Indian jewellery exports would see a sudden drop.

Dinesh Navadiya, ex-chairman of the Gems and Jewellery Export Promotion Council (GJEPC), cautions that increased prices may divert demand from India, particularly in the $89.5 billion US diamond market.

To mitigate the effect, industry players request that the government discuss the reduction of tariffs and probe other markets for Indian exports of jewellery.

Market and Policy Response: India Negotiates with the US

India’s Commerce Ministry has started reviewing their economic effects and is drawing up countermeasures in response to these tariffs. Government officials indicate that there is scope for negotiations, with the following statement:

“There is a provision for tariff reductions if a country addresses US concerns.”

To protect its exports, the Modi government has initiated bilateral talks with Washington. The intent is to scale down the brutality of tariffs imposed on major Indian industries, so as not to create a drawn-out economic stress.

A Mixed Bag for India

Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs pose significant challenges for Indian exporters. Pharma and IT remain untouched, while gems, jewellery, and agriculture face heavy losses. Apparel manufacturers suffer immediate setbacks but may gain long-term benefits as global trade adjusts.

While markets respond to these changes, Indian policymakers and businesses have to move quickly to negotiate improved trade terms and reduce economic disruption. The next few months will prove critical in how India responds to this emerging trade scenario.

Recession Ahead? Trump’s Tariffs Crash Markets, Shock Global Economy

April 4, 2025, 11:46 am

US President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs have sparked recession fears and international economic turmoil. Announced on April 2, 2025, they put a minimum 10% duty on all imports, much higher rates on major trade partners. Markets dipped, inflation worries mounted, and analysts cautioned of delayed growth, reduced consumer spending, and potential retaliation from major economies.

Fitch Warns of Recession Risks

Fitch Ratings warned that steep tariff increases may plunge the US into recession and decelerate world growth. The effective tariff rate (ETR) is currently 20% on EU imports and 54% on Chinese imports. Other Asian countries also bear high duties—Vietnam (46%), Thailand (36%), Taiwan (32%), India (26%), South Korea (25%), Malaysia (24%), and Japan (24%). These rates are much higher than Fitch’s earlier estimates of 15% for the EU and 35% for China.

Fitch now predicts the aggregate US ETR to reach 25%, the highest since more than a century ago. This rise will most likely pull US growth down below the previous projection of 1.7% for 2025. Consumer confidence is weakening, and spending is decelerating, which is an indicator of economic weakness.

Higher tariffs will raise consumer prices and reduce corporate profits. Companies hit with increased import costs could lay off workers, while inflation-pinched consumers cut back on buying. With these forces building, the Federal Reserve might be reluctant to slash interest rates, further slowing growth.

Stock Markets Crash as Investors Respond

Markets plummeted following the tariff announcement. On April 3, the S&P 500 fell 4.8%, wiping out more than $2 trillion—the largest one-day decline since March 2020. The Dow fell over 1,200 points, and the Nasdaq dropped 5.1%.

Stocks and retail got particularly hammered. Apple, Amazon, and Nike dipped sharply as investors prepared for the increased cost of goods and the reduced demand. Experts have forewarned higher tariffs, explaining that the tariffs will lead to higher-priced merchandise, thereby slicing purchasing power as well as hampering economic activity.

World Ripple Effects and Intensifying Uncertainty

The effects are not just limited to the US Asian and European economies also fell as trade war concerns increased. Although some Latin American nations may experience small trade benefits, Fitch warned the broad-based nature of these tariffs will tend to reverse any gains.

Large US trading partners can retaliate with their own tariffs, further destabilizing international trade. If China and the EU retaliate, it could increase inflation and exacerbate supply chain disruptions.

With potential retaliation, market volatility, and an escalating trade war, global uncertainty looms. Investors and businesses brace for further economic shocks as the full effects of these tariffs unfold.

Will Trump’s Tariff Plans Make Gold The Best Investment Of The Year? | TDG Explainer

April 3, 2025, 12:38 pm

Gold prices are on a remarkable upward trajectory, leaving investors wondering if the precious metal will soon hit the ₹1 lakh mark per 10 grams. The surge comes as US President Donald Trump prepares to announce sweeping tariffs, a move he calls “Liberation Day” for the United States. But what does this mean for gold? Let’s take a closer look.

Gold’s Record-Breaking Rally

In 2024, gold proved to be a strong hedge against inflation, delivering over 20% returns. The momentum has continued into 2025.

On January 1, 2025, gold was priced at ₹79,390 per 10 grams.
By April 1, it had surged by ₹2,000 to hit ₹94,150 per 10 grams, marking its highest level in two months.
The previous record one-day jump was on February 10, when gold gained ₹2,400 per 10 grams.
On April 2, morning trade data from the India Bullion and Jewellers Association Ltd (IBJA) showed gold at ₹90,920 per 10 grams.
In the international market, spot gold hit a fresh peak of $3,149.03 per ounce.

Why Is Gold Rising? Experts Weigh In

Analysts say Trump’s tariff policies are fueling gold’s bull run.

Chirag Mehta, Chief Investment Officer, Quantum Mutual Fund, explained:
“Since the onset of his campaign, President Trump has consistently promoted the ‘America First’ policy, with imposing tariffs on foreign nations being a central aspect of his economic agenda.”

Manoj Jain, Director, Prithvi Finmart, noted:
“Traders are waiting for US tariff announcements, but the overall bullish structure is intact for precious metals due to global uncertainty.”

Kotak Securities highlighted:
“Gold prices have surged to a record high for the fourth consecutive session due to concerns over US trade tariffs. Trump’s planned levies on all trading partners have heightened fears of retaliatory measures and global economic instability.”

Will Gold Hit ₹1 Lakh?

With uncertainty looming, analysts predict gold will remain strong in the coming months.

Prithviraj Kothari, MD, RiddiSiddhi Bullions Ltd (RSBL) stated:
“Trump tariffs will lead to stagflation and a weak dollar index in the next few months, and maybe a recession by the end of the year, which will support gold prices.”

Prathamesh Mallya, DVP-Research, Angel One Ltd, added:
“Gold has been trading in a bullish mode for quite some time as countries deal with tariff wars, economic slowdowns, and interest rate cuts.”

What’s Next for Gold Investors?

As markets brace for Trump’s tariff announcements, gold’s position as a safe-haven asset is stronger than ever. Whether prices will touch the ₹1 lakh mark remains uncertain, but the metal’s strong performance indicates that investors are betting big on gold in 2025.

Secondary Tariffs On Russian Oil: Who Will Face the Economic Fallout? | TDG Explainer

April 1, 2025, 3:18 pm

US President Donald Trump’s recent statements on Russian oil have escalated global tensions. Trump, frustrated by Russian President Vladimir Putin’s denial of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy, threatened to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil. These tariffs would apply if Putin fails to agree to a ceasefire. The secondary tariffs would target countries buying Russian oil, with China, India, and Turkey facing financial penalties. While Trump has been open to negotiations with Moscow, this marks a tougher stance. These tariffs could destabilize the global oil market and complicate matters for countries like India, which is heavily dependent on Russian crude oil.

Trump’s Growing Frustration with Putin and Zelenskyy’s Legitimacy

Trump’s anger toward Vladimir Putin stems from the Russian leader’s dismissal of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s legitimacy. Putin claims that Zelenskyy cannot sign a peace agreement due to Ukraine’s martial law. This position traces back to Russia’s view that Ukraine’s 2014 government change, which ousted pro-Russian President Yanukovych, was unlawful.

Although Trump has previously shown a willingness to engage in peace talks, he condemned Putin’s efforts to replace Volodymyr Zelenskyy. He stated that such actions would delay peace talks. Donald Trump noted that he and Putin share a “good relationship” and that his frustration might disappear if Putin takes the right actions. This hardens Trump’s position, increasing pressure on Russia.

What Are Secondary Tariffs and How Do They Affect Trade?

Secondary tariffs are penalties a country imposes on nations trading with another nation already under sanctions. In this case, Trump would target countries buying Russian oil. This strategy differs from traditional sanctions, which directly focus on the target country. Secondary sanctions, like those imposed on Iran and Venezuela, aim to discourage other nations from engaging in sanctioned trade.

Trump’s additional tariffs would pressure countries continuing to buy Russian oil amid the Ukraine conflict. If Trump follows through, China, India, and Turkey could face heavy tariffs. These countries depend heavily on Russian oil. In 2024, Russia supplied 35% of India’s crude oil, and 19% of China’s oil came from Russia. If Trump enforces the tariffs, these nations may face disrupted energy markets and rising costs.

India’s Strategic Dilemma and the Impact of Secondary Tariffs

India’s dependence on Russian crude oil puts it in a tough position if Trump enforces secondary tariffs. India imports 35% of its crude oil from Russia and has been refining discounted Russian oil and exporting it to Western countries. This practice has allowed Russia to bypass sanctions and sell oil at a competitive price.

If secondary tariffs are imposed, India faces a difficult choice. It must balance its energy needs with its trade relations with the US. India, the world’s second-largest exporter of refined oil to the US, risks straining ties with a key trading partner. The financial impact of these tariffs could force India to reconsider its position on Russian oil.

Who Will Be Most Affected by Secondary Tariffs on Russian Oil?

China, India, and Turkey will feel the most impact from secondary tariffs. These nations are the largest buyers of Russian oil, and their economic relations with the US make the tariffs a double-edged sword.

India faces added pressure. It buys Russian oil, refines it, and sells it to the West. If Trump imposes secondary tariffs, India will be caught between its energy needs and its trade relations with the US. Additionally, Trump has already criticized India’s tariffs on US products, and these new tariffs could escalate tensions. They might also push global oil prices higher as countries scramble for alternative sources, further destabilizing the already volatile market.

Will Trump’s Threats Work?

Trump’s threat to impose secondary tariffs on Russian oil is significant, but its effectiveness remains unclear. Trump’s previous economic threats often lacked follow-through. Experts, including Keir Giles from Chatham House, warn that Trump’s threats tend to be unpredictable. Enforcing secondary tariffs would represent a significant policy shift, with major consequences for global energy markets.

However, if Trump carries out the threat, China, India, and Turkey could face severe repercussions. The cost of buying Russian oil and dealing with US tariffs could outweigh the benefits. This could reshape the global oil landscape, especially in the context of the ongoing Ukraine war and the post-pandemic recovery.

Mexico Wins Temporary Tariff Relief, Canada Left Waiting

March 7, 2025, 12:34 am

The U.S. has granted a temporary exemption to Mexican goods from the newly imposed 25% tariffs under the USMCA trade agreement. President Donald Trump made the announcement on Thursday after a call with Mexico’s President Claudia Sheinbaum. The exemption will last until April 2.

Trump posted on Truth Social, stating, “After speaking with President Claudia Sheinbaum of Mexico, I have agreed that Mexico will not be required to pay tariffs on anything that falls under the USMCA Agreement.”

Mexico’s President Sheinbaum confirmed the discussion, emphasizing mutual efforts to curb the flow of fentanyl into the U.S., a key issue in tariff negotiations.

No Relief for Canada Yet

Despite earlier remarks from U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick suggesting a broader exemption for USMCA-compliant goods, Trump did not mention Canada in his announcement.

Lutnick had indicated that all goods complying with the USMCA might receive an exemption, saying, “If you lived under Donald Trump’s US-Mexico-Canada Agreement, you will get a reprieve from these tariffs.” However, Canada is still awaiting an official decision.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau responded, calling Lutnick’s comments “promising” but stated that “tariffs remain in place, and therefore our response will remain in place.”

Markets React to Trade Uncertainty

The ongoing tariff decisions have impacted financial markets. The S&P 500 dropped 1.8%, marking a 6.5% decline from its mid-February high. Investors fear the tariffs could fuel inflation and slow economic growth.

The Mexican peso showed slight gains, while the Canadian dollar weakened following the uncertainty. Bill Sterling, a global strategist at GW&K Investment Management, noted, “The unpredictability of tariffs is making business leaders hesitant to make investment decisions.”

What’s Next? Reciprocal Tariffs Loom

The tariff exemption for Mexico is temporary, with a hard deadline of April 2. Trump has hinted at a broader reciprocal tariff strategy, where the U.S. would match the duties imposed by its trading partners.

Lutnick emphasized that the administration’s primary goal remains addressing fentanyl trafficking. However, “if progress is not made, these tariffs could stay beyond April 2,” he warned.

Meanwhile, Trudeau acknowledged the likelihood of a prolonged trade war, stating, “We will continue to be in a trade war launched by the United States for the foreseeable future.”

With Canada still awaiting clarity and Mexico facing a short-term reprieve, North American trade relations remain highly uncertain.