Massive Devotee Turnout for Lord Jagannath’s Grand Rath Yatra in Puri

June 27, 2025, 11:39 am

Puri, Odisha witnessed a sea of devotees on Friday as the iconic Rath Yatra of Lord Jagannath began amid spiritual fervour and elaborate security measures. Known as Shree Gundicha Yatra, the festival marks one of the grandest annual events in the Hindu calendar and attracts millions from across India and abroad. Celebrated on the Dwitiya Tithi of the lunar month’s Shukla Paksha, the festival is considered spiritually auspicious as it signifies the increasing radiance of the moon.

A Tradition Rooted in Faith and History

Renowned Jagannath culture scholar Suryanarayan Rath Sharma remarked,

“The Rath Yatra is the most ancient chariot festival in the world. It is believed that witnessing Lord Jagannath during this Yatra grants moksha (liberation).”

During the nine-day festival, Lord Jagannath, his brother Balabhadra, and sister Subhadra journey from their 12th-century shrine to the Gundicha Temple, about 3 km away. Their majestic wooden chariots — Nandighosh, Taladhwaja, and Darpadalan — are pulled by devotees in a spectacular spiritual procession.

Massive Security and Arrangements in Place

To ensure a smooth and incident-free celebration, the Odisha government has implemented a five-tiered security system across Puri. Measures include:

200 platoons of police
8 companies of BSF, CRPF, and other forces
10,000 personnel from Odisha Police, CAPF, and Home Guards
275 AI-powered CCTV cameras monitoring key routes
Integrated command-and-control centres tracking crowd and traffic in real time

Speaking on preparations, Puri Collector Sidharth Shankar Swain stated:

“We are fully prepared for the grand Rath Yatra. All rituals and arrangements have been meticulously planned. We seek blessings from Mahaprabhu and cooperation from all devotees.”

Spiritual and Technological Harmony

For the first time, an AI-enabled surveillance system is being used to monitor crowd movement and traffic from Uttara Square to Puri Town, and onwards to Konark. This tech-forward approach reflects a blend of tradition and modern administration aimed at preserving the sanctity and safety of the event.

Survey on Israel-Iran War

November 15, 2024, 2:50 am

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his country’s air attack on Iran last month hit “a component” of Tehran’s nuclear programme and degraded its defence and missile production capabilities. “There is a specific component in their nuclear programme that was hit in this attack,” Netanyahu said, 67% believe Netanyahu’s war policies secure Israel’s future

Survey on Delhi NCR Air Pollution

November 15, 2024, 2:50 am

Pollution levels in Delhi-NCR have severely impacted public health, with the AQI recorded at 494 on Monday, classified as “severe.” All areas in Delhi were marked as red zones on November 18. GRAP-4 has been implemented, schools are closed, and the Supreme Court criticized delays, mandating strict adherence to GRAP-4 measures. 87% people believe that there is health emergency in Delhi due to pollution and breathing difficulties Here’s The Survey:

Survey on The Sabarmati Report

November 19, 2024, 3:43 am

Starring Vikrant Massey, ‘The Sabarmati Report’ is a gripping drama based on a true incident from 2002, exploring the controversial events surrounding the Sabarmati Express train. The film delves into the questions raised about various government bodies at the time. 84% people believe that ‘The Sabarmati Report’ reflects the truth. Here’s The Survey:

Survey on Patna Medical College Incident

November 19, 2024, 3:36 am

The eye of a man went missing just hours after his death at Nalanda Medical College and Hospital in Patna on Saturday. The family of the man, Fantush, staged a protest inside the hospital premises, alleging medical negligence in the case. However, the hospital staff claimed that a rat had gnawed at his eye. 84% people believe that govt hospital staff are victims of corruption and negligence. Here’s The Survey:

Survey on Hindu Sanatan Board

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Seers and leaders at the ‘Waqf Hatao, Desh Bachao’ rally in Belagavi demanded a Sanatan Board to protect Hindu temple and mutt properties. They called for abolishing waqf boards, citing unconstitutional practices and urging the government to ensure legal safeguards for Hindu religious assets to prevent misuse. 58% of people believe that Hindus are under a collective threat. Here’s The Survey:

Survey on Asaduddin Owaisi 15 Minutes Statement

November 15, 2024, 2:50 am

Asaduddin Owaisi, MP and head of AIMIM, addressed supporters at a public meeting in Maharashtra during the election campaign. While on stage, the police served him a notice, but he continued his speech, noting it was 9:45 PM and he had 15 minutes left for campaigning. AIMIM is contesting 16 assembly seats in Maharashtra, its only strong base outside Telangana. 44% believe MVA is using religion for politics Here’s The Survey:

Survey on World Diabetes Day

November 15, 2024, 2:41 am

Diabetes is slowly having a strong grip over the world population. According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), diabetes affects 422 million worldwide annually. “About 422 million people worldwide have diabetes, the majority living in low-and middle income countries, and 1.5 million deaths are directly attributed to diabetes each year. 80% people believed that the obesity a major cause of diabetes Here’s The Survey:

Survey on UPPSC Protest

November 15, 2024, 2:32 am

The Uttar Pradesh Public Service Commission (UPPSC) announced on Thursday that it would meet the demands of the protesting aspirants by conducting the Provincial Civil Services (PCS) preliminary exam in a single day. The decision by the state examination authority follows days of intense student protests in Prayagraj, where demonstrators called for the exam to be held in one day and in a single shift. 91% people believe that If Yogi Govt accepts the students’ demands it will be victory for democracy Here’s The Survey:

Survey on Checking of Uddhav Thackeray’s Helicopter

November 14, 2024, 5:15 am

Maharashtra CM Eknath Shinde’s helicopter was checked by election officials after he arrived in Palghar on Wednesday to campaign for the Assembly elections. In a video, the CM was seen engaging with officials as they checked the helicopter and skimmed through his belongings. The helicopter was checked after Shiv Sena (UBT) chief Uddhav Thackeray alleged that his bags were checked by poll officials twice. 60% say helicopter checks targeted opposition leaders after Uddhav’s incident. Here’s The Survey:

Survey on Saudi Arabian-Islamic Conference

November 14, 2024, 4:58 am

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has demanded that Israel immediately stop its military aggression in Gaza and Lebanon at the opening of a summit of Arab and Muslim leaders in Riyadh. In an address before the joint Arab League and Organisation of Islamic Cooperation summit, the crown prince, also known as MBS, condemned the “massacre committed against Palestinian and Lebanese people”. He urged Israel “to refrain from any further act of aggression” and called on countries around the world to recognise Palestinian statehood. 55% believe Donald Trump challenges Muslim governments. Here’s The Survey:

Survey on Obscenity Content on Social Media

November 14, 2024, 4:47 am

The rise of obscene content on social media is affecting youth significantly, leading to distorted perceptions of relationships, self-worth, and body image. With unregulated exposure, teenagers face increased risks of developing anxiety, depression, and skewed social norms. The normalization of explicit material promotes unhealthy behavior and can desensitize young minds. 90% believe social media reels stray from cultural values. Here’s The Survey:

Survey On UPPSC, RO/ARO Exam

November 13, 2024, 1:54 am

The protest by aspirants against the UPPSC's decision to conduct the RO-ARO and PCS preliminary examinations on different dates entered its second day on Tuesday. The protesters laid siege to the Uttar Pradesh Public Service Commission (UPPSC) headquarters here on Monday, staging a sit-in even as a large posse of police personnel tried to disperse them. The students were seen holding placards with slogans like, "We will not retreat, we will remain united until we get justice", and "One day, one exam". In a statement issued on Monday, the Akhil Bharatiya Vidyarthi Parishad (ABVP) said that in light of the concerns raised by the aspirants over the conduct of the PCS and RO-ARO preliminary exams, the commission should take prompt steps to address the issues related to exam centres, normalisation of scores, and conduct of exams in two shifts to ensure the integrity of the process. "The candidates have been raising concerns over the guidelines set by the commission for the upcoming PCS and RO-ARO exams, leading to protests at different levels. The ABVP demands the UPPSC to promptly resolve these concerns. The integrity and transparency of the exams must not be compromised, and all the issues regarding centre allocation and normalisation must be addressed with utmost seriousness," ABVP national secretary Ankit Shukla said in the statement. 59% support taking action on the simultaneous conduct of the UPPCS and RO/ARO exams. Here's The Survey: Q-1 What is your opinion on the controversy surrounding the UPPCS and RO/ARO exams? Q-2 What is the main reason behind the students' dissatisfaction with the UPPCS and RO/ARO exams? Q-3 What is the government's motive behind holding the UPPCS and RO/ARO exams in two shifts? Q-4 Should action be taken regarding the simultaneous conduct of the UPPCS and RO/ARO exams? Q-5 What issues do students face due to normalization?

Survey On Ban On Male Tailors In UP

November 12, 2024, 1:47 am

Men should not take women’s measurements at tailor shops, nor cut a woman’s hair or train her in the gym these are some of the proposals from the Uttar Pradesh State Women Commission to protect women from “bad touch”. The radical raft of suggestions, which includes installing CCTVs in gyms, cloth stores and coaching centres, and having a woman for security of students in school buses, comes following a meeting held on October 28. The commission said it had sent letters on the guidelines — which seem to be an attempt to segregate men and women in public spaces to improve women’s safety — to all district magistrates in the state to ensure compliance. We are conscious that it may take some time to hire trained women for all of these positions. But it would also help with hiring more women,” the head of the commission continued. According to Himani Agarwal, a commission member, the panel approved Chauhan’s October 28 suggestion. According to Agarwal, males working in these occupations may be more likely to be molested. She stated that “not all men have bad intentions,” but that “some of the men’s intentions are also not good.” Agarwal went on to say that it is now only a proposal and that the commission will later ask the government to enact legislation in this area. Reactions to the plan have been divided. SP MLA Ragini Sonkar has stated that people should be free to choose the business or gym they choose to visit. Social workers Veena Sharma and Mohsina Choudhary, meanwhile, praised the plan, pointing out that numerous complaints have been made about women being harassed at tailor shops when taking measures. According to them, the plan ought to become law. 80% of surveyed believe that the ban on male tailors for women’s clothing in UP is a right decision Here's The Survey: Q-1: The ban on male tailors for women's clothing in UP: Your opinion on the UP Women's Commission's decision? Q-2: Is it necessary to have female tailors for taking measurements of women's clothing for modesty reasons? Your opinion? Q-3: Will having 'female tailors' and CCTV during the measurement process make women feel safer? Your opinion? Q-4: What is your opinion on appointing female trainers in gyms and yoga centers?

Public Suspects Potential Terrorist Involvement In Kanpur Train Accident

September 10, 2024, 2:32 am

A recent India News survey conducted on September 9, 2024, sheds light on public opinion surrounding the Kanpur train accident involving the Kalindi Express. The survey, with a sample size of 160, reveals that 54% of respondents believe the accident was a result of a terrorist conspiracy, while 46% attribute it to negligence. When asked who could be behind the alleged conspiracy, 37% pointed to terrorist organizations, with 25% suspecting Pakistan’s ISI. Additionally, 50% of respondents supported Railway Minister Giriraj Singh's controversial statement linking the rising train accidents to "Train Jihad," while 42% disagreed with the term. Amid growing concerns over railway safety, 46% of participants called for enhanced security on trains, and 39% urged for stricter patrols at railway stations. The survey highlights the public’s demand for robust safety measures in the face of increasing threats to train operations, reflecting heightened apprehensions about the potential of terrorist involvement. Here's the Survey: Q-1: Who do you think is behind the conspiracy to derail the Kalindi Express in Kanpur? Q-2: Was the recent train accident a mere accident or a terrorist conspiracy? Q-3: What is your opinion on Railway Minister Giriraj Singh calling the increasing train accidents a result of "Train Jihad"? Q-4: What steps should be taken in light of the growing terrorist threats to trains?

Survey Reveals Public Concerns Over Targeting Of Hindu Festivals

September 10, 2024, 2:13 am

A recent India News survey conducted on September 9, 2024, highlights growing public concern over the targeting of Hindu festivals, following stone pelting incidents during Ganesh Chaturthi celebrations in Surat and Ratlam. With a sample size of 444 participants, 71% believe Hindu festivals have been consistently targeted in recent times, while 82% suspect a premeditated conspiracy behind these attacks. Respondents attribute the motive behind these actions to spreading social unrest (59%) and inciting religious sentiments (38%). The survey also reveals that 42% of those involved in stone pelting are reportedly incited through religious influence or financial incentives. A significant majority, 67%, call for strict legal action against those conspiring to create unrest, indicating strong public sentiment for decisive measures. The survey reflects the heightened tensions surrounding the safety and respect of religious events, and the perceived failure to address these incidents adequately. Here's the Survey: Q-1: Do you feel that Hindu festivals have been consistently targeted in recent times? Q-2: Do you see any premeditated conspiracy behind the stone pelting at Ganesh pandals in Surat and Ratlam? Q-3: What motive do you think lies behind targeting Hindu festivals? Q-4: How are those involved in stone pelting incited?

Survey On Rahul Gandhi J&K Election

September 6, 2024, 12:51 am

Addressing his first rally in Kashmir ahead of the upcoming Assembly elections, Congress leader Rahul Gandhi on Wednesday vowed to restore statehood to Jammu and Kashmir, calling it the responsibility of every citizen of the country. He accused the BJP of stripping the people of J&K of their rights and dignity and said the next government in the region will be formed by the INDIA bloc, describing it as a "fight for justice." Standing alongside National Conference (NC) president Farooq Abdullah, Gandhi avoided mentioning Article 370, whose abrogation led to J&K's reorganization into two Union territories. While the NC has pledged to revoke this move in its manifesto, Gandhi focused on the promise of statehood. Gandhi acknowledged that both the Congress and NC had initially sought statehood before the elections but are now fully committed to restoring it as soon as possible. He assured that whether the current BJP government or a future INDIA alliance government in Delhi, statehood would be returned to J&K. 56% of people believe that Kashmir, by giving the label of "outsiders," Rahul Gandhi is adopting the divide-and-rule policy. Here's the Survey: Q1. Do you think in Kashmir, by giving the label of "outsiders," Rahul Gandhi is adopting the divide-and-rule policy? Q2. Do you think Rahul Gandhi is dividing people across the country by labeling them as outsiders and focusing on caste differences? Q3. Do you think the accusation that jobs and wealth are being given to outsiders instead of Kashmiris is valid? Q5. According to you, who is considered an "outsider" in Kashmir?

Survey On Madrasa Controversy

September 6, 2024, 12:38 am

The Prayagraj Development Authority (PDA) sealed a madrasa in the city on Wednesday, following the discovery of counterfeit currency being printed there and the recovery of a book equating the RSS with a terrorist organization. Officials stated that the Jamia Habibia Masjide Azam Madrasa in Atarsuiya was sealed for being unauthorized. During an August 28 raid, police uncovered a book titled "RSS: Desh Ka Sabse Bada Aatankwadi Sangathan" ("RSS: The Largest Terrorist Organization in the Country") written in Urdu by former Maharashtra IG SM Mushrif. According to a senior Prayagraj Police official, both counterfeit currency and the controversial book were found during the raid. After translating the book from Urdu to Hindi, authorities confirmed its author as SM Mushrif. The police suspect that the madrasa’s Maulvi, Mohammad Tafseerul Arifeen, was using the book to spread anti-RSS sentiment among the students. 54% of people believe anti-Hindu content being taught in madrasas Here's The Survey: Q1. Is anti-Hindu content being taught in madrasas? Q2. Should madrasas spreading hatred like Shayaraj be bulldozed? Q3. How are unrecognized madrasas operating for so long? Q4. What is your opinion on the suspicion surrounding every madrasa?

SURVEY ON Maulana Tauqeer Raza Statement

September 5, 2024, 2:35 am

78% of people believe that Maulana Tauqeer Raza should be arrested for his provocative statement Maulana Tauqeer Raza, the President of Ittihad-e-Millat Council, has once again made a controversial statement. He has also made a significant remark about the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), labeling it as a terrorist organization. Maulana Tauqeer Raza has demanded a ban on Bajrang Dal, VHP, and RSS. Maulana Tauqeer Raza stated that Bajrang Dal, VHP, and RSS should be banned. He further added that if the government truly wants to work with honesty, it must shut down these terrorist organizations. Here's the Survey:

India News Survey Date: 4 September 2024	Male: 93%
Survey Name: Maulana Tauqeer Raza Statement	Female: 7%

Q-1 Maulana Tauqeer Raza called RSS, Bajrang Dal, and VHP terrorist organizations. What is your opinion?

A- They are terrorist organizations	22%
B- Maulana is wrong	34%
C- Maulana has an extremist mindset	42%
D- Cannot say	2%

Q-2 Do you think Maulana Tauqeer Raza should be arrested for his provocative statement? What is your opinion?

A- He should be arrested	78%
B- Political conspiracy	22%
C- Cannot say	0%

Q-3 Is Maulana Tauqeer Raza trying to defame the Hindu community with his provocative statement? What is your opinion?

A- Yes	93%
B- No	7%
C- Cannot say	0%

Q-4 What is the real concern for Muslim clerics about the Waqf Bill?

A- Waqf properties will be under control	22%
B- Fear of losing political influence	12%
C- Fear of government action	50%
D- Cannot say	16%

SURVEY ON SP CHIEF’S BULLDOZER REMARK

September 5, 2024, 2:12 am

60% of people think Akhilesh will suffer from his bulldozer statement in Gorakhpur The debate over the use of bulldozers intensified with Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav taking a jibe at chief minister Yogi Adityanath, saying that the “bulldozer doesn’t have brains, but has a steering, and people might change the steering at any time.” The war of words began on Tuesday evening when Yadav said that “all the bulldozers will be steered towards Gorakhpur (the hometown of Adityanath) once the SP government is formed in the state.” Adityanath retorted by saying, “Those who were involved in loot before 2017 are daydreaming today. Here's the Survey:

India News Survey Date: 4 September 2024 Male	94%
Survey name: SP Chief Bulldozer Remark Female	6%

Q-1 What does Akhilesh Yadav's statement about the bulldozer turning towards Gorakhpur in 2027 mean?

A - Criticism of Administrative Actions	29%
B - Targeting Chief Minister Yogi	34%
C - Appeasing a Specific Community	31%
D - Can't Say	6%

Q-2 Will Akhilesh benefit or suffer from his bulldozer statement in Gorakhpur?

A - Benefit	35%
B - Suffer	60%
C - Can't Say	5%

Q-3 Is the bulldozer action only an attempt to target the opposition?

A - Yes	48%
B - No	50%
C - Can't Say	2%

Q-4 What is your opinion on the continuous bulldozer actions in Uttar Pradesh?

A - Right Decision	68%
B - Wrong Decision	29%
C - Can't Say	3%

Survey On West Bengal Anti-Rape Bill

September 4, 2024, 4:25 am

A recent survey on the West Bengal Anti-Rape Bill, conducted on September 3, 2024, reveals overwhelming support for the proposed measures. The survey, which sampled 366 individuals, indicates that 96% of respondents approve of the bill’s provision for the death penalty for rapists. Furthermore, 93% endorse the nationwide implementation of the bill’s mandate for investigation within 21 days and execution within 10 days. In terms of legal proceedings, 95% believe that severe crimes like rape should be tried exclusively in fasttrack courts. When asked about the root causes of increasing crimes against women, 51% blame government and police negligence, while 23% attribute it to media influences 96% BELIEVE THAT DEATH PENALTY provision IS CORRECT Here's the Survey: Q-1 What is your opinion on the provision of the death penalty in Mamata Sarkar's Anti-Rape Bill? Q-2 Should the provision in the anti-rape law that mandates investigation within 21 days and execution of the guilty within 10 days be implemented across the country? Q-3 In your opinion, should hearings for severe crimes like rape be conducted only in fast-track courts? Q-4 Who do you hold most responsible for the increasing crimes against women?

Survey On Caste-Census

September 4, 2024, 4:11 am

A recent The Daily Guardian survey conducted on September 3, 2024, reveals mixed opinions on the caste census. Out of 668 respondents, a significant 67% believe a caste census should be conducted, while 33% oppose it. The survey also explored public perception of the RSS’s stance on the issue. About 30% view it as beneficial for the BJP, while 28% see it as advantageous for the backward classes. Additionally, 19% think the RSS’s statement is a result of pressure from the opposition, and 18% remain undecided. When asked whether the caste census is necessary for the people or politics, 51% of respondents believe it serves political interests, whereas 48% see it as a necessity for the public. 67% Survey reveals that there Should be a caste census Here's the Survey: Q-1 Should there be a caste census or not? What is your opinion? Q-2 How do you view the statement by RSS on the caste census? Q-3 Is the caste census necessary for the people or for politics? Q-4 Will the caste census benefit the lower classes?

Survey On BJP Membership Campaign

September 2, 2024, 11:46 pm

On September 2, 2024, a survey conducted among 608 participants across India revealed significant insights into the public’s engagement and perceptions regarding the BJP’s membership campaign. The survey, which included 91% male and 9% female respondents, offers a detailed view of the current political climate and how citizens perceive their involvement in political activities, particularly with the BJP. Here's the Survey: Q-1 What do you do to stay and appear politically active? Q-2 Which party's membership have you taken or would like to take in the coming days? Q-3 Which mode would you use in the BJP membership campaign? Q-4 What would be the main reason for you to take BJP membership?

Survey On SC Order On Bulldozer Action

September 2, 2024, 11:33 pm

A survey conducted on September 2, 2024, across India with 608 participants, revealed key insights into public attitudes towards the BJP’s membership campaign. Of the respondents, 91% were male and 9% female. The survey highlights current political engagement trends and perceptions about BJP membership. Political Engagement The survey showed that 83% of participants consider voting their primary form of political engagement. Here's the Survey: Q-1 Is it right to bulldoze the house of someone accused or convicted of any crime? Q-2 Do you think the bulldozer action seems politically motivated? Q-3 Do you think a notice and legal procedure should be followed before bulldozer action? Q-4 There are allegations that Muslims are being targeted by bulldozer actions.

Survey On Movie Emergency Controversy

September 2, 2024, 12:16 am

Kangana Ranaut has ignited controversy once again with her upcoming film Emergency, which has sparked outrage in Punjab and among Sikh communities due to concerns over the film's depiction of the Sikh community. The trailer, released on August 14, precedes the film's theatrical debut on September 6. Emergency focuses on former Prime Minister Indira Gandhi's 1975 declaration of a state of Emergency in India. Kangana Ranaut, who is also the BJP MP from Mandi in Himachal Pradesh, portrays Indira Gandhi in the film. Her production company, Manikarnika Films, is one of the film's producers, and Ranaut herself directed the film. The controversy stems from a scene in the trailer where the slain Sikh militant Jarnail Singh Bhindranwale is depicted as collaborating with Indira Gandhi, allegedly offering to secure votes for her Congress party in exchange for a separate Sikh state. 81% people think that Kangana Ranaut’s movie ‘Emergency,’ based on Indira Gandhi should be released on September 6 Here's the survey: Q1: Should Kangana Ranaut's movie 'Emergency,' based on Indira Gandhi, be released on September 6? Q2: What is the main reason for the controversy surrounding Kangana Ranaut's movie 'Emergency'? Q3: What is your opinion on the Sikh community's opposition to the movie 'Emergency'? Q4: Do you consider Kangana Ranaut's movie 'Emergency' on Indira Gandhi to be BJP propaganda?

Survey On Patanjali Divya Dant Manjan

September 1, 2024, 11:57 pm

The Delhi High Court has issued notices to Baba Ramdev and Patanjali's Divya Pharmacy on Friday in response to a petition alleging that the herbal tooth powder, Divya Dant Manjan, contains non-vegetarian ingredients despite being labeled as vegetarian. The petition, filed by Yatin Sharma, challenges the product's labeling, which the petitioner says displays a green dot—commonly recognized as a symbol for vegetarian products—while the ingredient list includes Sepia officinalis, a substance derived from cuttlefish. The court scheduled the next hearing for November 28. 17% people think that there should be an investigation on Divya Dant Manjan claim to use non-veg materials Here's the Survey: Q1: Despite the Supreme Court's warning, allegations of misleading information being given on Patanjali products are being made. What action should be taken? Q2: Patanjali's Divya Dant Manjan has claimed to use non-veg materials. What is your opinion on this? Q3: Is Swami Ramdev himself using the imported enzymes in Patanjali products that are under dispute? Q4: What do you consider to be the main reason behind Patanjali's repeated violations?

Survey on Assam CM on Jumma Break

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Assam CM Himanta Biswa Sarma announced the cancellation of the two-hour namaz break on Fridays in the Assam Legislative Assembly, aiming to boost productivity and move away from colonial-era practices. The decision made public on Friday, ends a long-standing provision allowing Muslim lawmakers and staff to take time off for Friday prayers. Sarma thanked Assembly Speaker Biswajit Daimary and legislators for supporting a "historic decision." He emphasized that abolishing the Jumma break prioritizes legislative efficiency over practices he considers outdated, aligning the Assembly with a more modern approach to governance. 74% support banning polygamy among Muslims, according to recent survey. Here is the survey: Q1: What is your opinion on the Assam Legislative Assembly Speaker's decision not to allow leave for employees on Jumma (Friday prayers)? Q2: What do you believe is the real reason behind the Assam Legislative Assembly Speaker's decision to deny leave for Friday prayers? Q3: Has the Himanta Biswa Sarma government made it mandatory for Muslims to register their divorce under the triple talaq law? What is your opinion? Q4: Should the Himanta Biswa Sarma government make laws to prohibit polygamy among Muslims?

Survey on Kolkata Doctor Rape Case

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee urged PM Modi for stricter central laws and swift punishment for heinous crimes like rape and murder. In her letter, sent following the nationwide outrage over the rape and murder of a doctor at Kolkata's RG Kar Medical College, Banerjee emphasized the need for time-bound disposal of such cases. She announced that the state assembly would pass an amendment next week to ensure capital punishment for convicted rapists. While awaiting a response from the Prime Minister, Banerjee mentioned receiving a communication from the Union Women and Child Development minister. 64% believe women's helplines are effective in preventing crimes against women. Here is the survey: Q1: Mamata Banerjee wrote a second letter to Prime Minister Modi, demanding the death penalty for rapists. What is your opinion? Q2: In the Kolkata rape and murder case, who is most responsible for the increase in crimes against women? Q3: Should there be stricter punishments for heinous crimes like rape against women? Q4: Have women's helpline services proved effective in preventing crimes against women?

Survey on Akali Dal Leader Statement

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Actor-politician Kangana Ranaut strongly condemned former Punjab MP Simranjit Singh Mann for making derogatory comments about rape. On social media, Ranaut expressed her outrage, criticizing Mann for trivializing rape by comparing it to riding a bicycle. She highlighted the disturbing normalization of rape and violence against women in the patriarchal society, noting that such comments reflect a deep-seated misogyny. 97% say leaders should be careful with statements on rape. Here is the survey: Q-1. Akali Dal leader Simranjit Singh Mann made a controversial rape comment about Kangana Ranaut. What is your opinion? Q-2. What action should the Akali Dal take against Simranjit Singh Mann for his anti-women statement? Q-3. In the ongoing political battle between Kangana Ranaut and Simranjit Singh Mann, who do you hold responsible? Q-4. Should political leaders be mindful of their statements on women, especially in cases related to crimes like rape?

Survey on Capital Punishment for Rapists

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

West Bengal CM Mamata announced plans to call a State Assembly session next week to pass a bill mandating capital punishment for rapists. This move follows criticism of the CBI’s investigation into the rape and murder of a 31-year-old trainee doctor at Kolkata’s RG Kar Medical College and Hospital. Banerjee condemned the delay in justice, stating she met the victim’s parents and criticized the CBI for hindering progress. 60% believe mandatory death penalty for rape will deter criminals. Here is the survey: Q-1. The government is making the death penalty mandatory in cases of rape. What is your opinion? Q-2. What will be the impact of making the death penalty mandatory in rape cases? Q-3. What punishment do you want in rape cases? Q-4. Today, fires have broken out in Assam, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Delhi as well. What do you think is the reason for these incidents?

Survey On CM Yogi’s Statement

August 27, 2024, 11:43 pm

Yogi Adityanath emphasized national unity during a public meeting in Agra, using the ongoing unrest in Bangladesh as a cautionary example. “Nothing is more important than the nation. We must avoid repeating the mistakes seen in Bangladesh,” he stated, urging, “Batenge to Katenge, Ek Rahenge to Nek Rahenge.” His comments follow a recent critique of the Opposition for its silence on attacks against Hindus and the destruction of temples. 77% Say CM Yogi’s Statement is Politically Motivated Against Opposition Here's the Survey: Q-1 CM Yogi, while giving an example of Bangladesh, said that if they attack, we will retaliate. What is your opinion on this? Q-2 Asaduddin Owaisi said CM Yogi's statement is meant to divide, do you agree? Q-3 Is CM Yogi's statement being used for political gains against the opposition? Q-4 Do you think the question of the security of Hindus in Bangladesh is a significant vote-bank politics issue?

Survey On Sexual Predators Study

August 27, 2024, 11:26 pm

Since 2018, India has reported over 400 cases of workplace sexual harassment annually, with an average of 445 cases per year, according to National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB) data. In 2022, the latest available data shows over 419 cases, averaging around 35 per month. Himachal Pradesh had the highest number of cases that year with 97, followed by Kerala with 83, Maharashtra with 46, and Karnataka with 43. West Bengal. 53% Believe Heinous Crime Offenders, Like Rapists, Are Mentally Ill Here's the Survey: Q-1: Do you think that individuals who commit heinous crimes like rape are mentally ill? Q-2: Should perpetrators of rape be mandatorily subjected to psychiatric evaluation and treatment? Q-3: Has the time come to prepare psychological profiles of sexual predators like rapists in India? Q-4: Should international experts and professionals with experience in dealing with similar crimes abroad be included in India's efforts to combat sexual crimes?

Survey on Russia-Ukraine War

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Russian missile and drone attacks on Sunday killed at least 18 people and injured 37 in Ukraine’s front-line regions of Chernihiv, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Donetsk. Reuters reported that safety adviser Ryan Evans was killed, and two journalists were injured, one seriously, when a hotel in Kramatorsk was hit. Zelenskyy announced that Ukrainian forces advanced 3km into Russia’s Kursk region, seizing two settlements. Meanwhile, Ukraine urged Belarus to withdraw its troops and equipment from the Gomel region, warning against potential “tragic mistakes” amid Moscow’s pressure. Russian officials reported six civilians killed in attacks. 80% of surveyed believe THAT Russia’s 9/11-style attack on Ukraine seem justified. Here is the survey: Q-1: Does Russia's 9/11-style attack on Ukraine seem justified? Q-2: Does Russia now seem to be losing heavily to Ukraine? Q-3: To take revenge on Ukraine, could Putin consider using a nuclear bomb? Q-4: After 2.5 years of not achieving victory over Ukraine, should Russia's military withdraw?

Survey on Bulldozer Action in Chhatarpur

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In response to a violent mob attack on a police station in Madhya Pradesh’s Chhatarpur district, which injured police personnel and a journalist, local authorities took swift action. The administration bulldozed the luxurious home of Haji Shahzad Ali, a key figure in the unrest, on Thursday. This move followed Chief Minister Dr. Mohan Yadav’s directive for a firm response against the violence. The house, built without permission on prime land in Chhatarpur, was demolished just hours after the Chief Minister’s instructions, highlighting the administration’s commitment to addressing the violence and deterring further unrest. 80% surveyed support the bulldozer action taken in Chhatarpur following the riots. Here is the survey: Q-1. What is your opinion on the bulldozer action after the riots in Chhatarpur? Q-2. After the riots in Chhatarpur, Samuday Vishesh's Baba Bagheswar said that the bulldozer action was necessary to remove the roofs and houses. What is your opinion? Q-3. Did Imran Pratapgarhi oppose the bulldozer action in Chhatarpur, claiming it was targeted against a specific religion and was an act of revenge? What is your opinion? Q-4. What do you think is the reason for the increasing popularity of the bulldozer action model in Chhatarpur?

Survey on Sexual Predators Study

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Recently, the Bombay High Court expressed grave concerns about school safety, emphasizing that discussions on the right to education become meaningless if schools aren’t secure. Justice Mohite-Dere highlighted the alarming issue, noting, “Even four-year-old girls are not being spared.” The remarks came during hearings on the alleged sexual assault of two minors at a Badlapur school. The court criticized the Badlapur police for delays in recording statements, underscoring the urgency of addressing these serious safety lapses to ensure the protection of students and uphold their right to a safe learning environment. 69% of surveyed feel safe on their campus. Here is the survey: Q-1. Do you feel safe on your campus? Q-2. Do you know any woman or man who has been a victim of sexual crime? Q-3. Have you ever tried to help a woman in distress? Q-4. If you were informed that someone on campus was harassing or threatening another person, would you report it?

Survey on UP Police Constable Exam

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Uttar Pradesh Police Recruitment & Promotion Board (UPPRPB) has commenced the UP Constable Civil Police Direct Recruitment Examination 2023 on 23 August. More than 40 lakh candidates are expected to appear for this competitive examination, which aims to fill 60,244 constable posts. The recruitment drive, initially held on February 17 and 18, 2024, was canceled due to reports of a paper leak. The previous exam took place at 2,385 centers across all 75 districts in the state. To ensure a smooth and secure examination process, the Uttar Pradesh Police have implemented extensive security and support measures. DCP Central Lucknow Raveena Tyagi, while speaking to ANI, said, “Around 80,000 aspirants will take the exam across 81 centers in Lucknow district. There are arrangements for thorough checking and frisking of candidates, with CCTV monitoring at all exam centers. Police personnel have been deployed at major bus stands, railway stations, and metro stations. Several holding areas have been set up for aspirants across the city. Facilities such as city buses and inter-district buses are also available. Additionally, Smart City Control and drones are being used for surveillance.” 69.00% of people think that new Yogi model been successful in the UP Police recruitment exam. Here is the survey: Q-1: Has the new Yogi model been successful in the UP Police recruitment exam? Q-2: Which actions have been most effective in preventing paper leaks and fraud in the UP Police recruitment exam? Q-3: Has the Bulldozer action against the paper leak mafia in Uttar Pradesh proven effective? Q-4: During the governance of which party in Uttar Pradesh did the police recruitment exam see the most fraud?

Survey on Muslim Marriage, Divorce Registration Bill

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) government in Assam introduced a Bill in the State Assembly on Thursday to repeal the Assam Moslem Marriages and Divorces Registration Act, 1935. The primary objective behind this move is to curb the practice of child marriage, which the government believes is facilitated by the existing law. The Bill outlines several reasons for scrapping the 1935 Act, which was originally adopted for the then Province of Assam to manage Muslim religious and social affairs. The statement of objects and reasons attached to the Bill notes that the Act, being a pre-independence law, is outdated and no longer aligns with modern legal standards. One of the key issues highlighted is that the registration of marriages and divorces under the 1935 Act is not mandatory, leading to informal registration processes that allow for non-compliance with existing legal norms. The Bill emphasizes that there is room for underage marriages due to the lack of stringent monitoring under the current system, enabling marriages of boys below 21 years and girls below 18 years. 42% of people do not consider the decisions of the Himanta Biswa Sarma government to be anti-Muslim. Here is the survey: Q-1 The Assam government has prepared a new draft for changes in Muslim marriage and divorce registration. What aspects do you support? Q-2 Do you consider the decisions of the Himanta Biswa Sarma government to be anti-Muslim? Q-3 What is your opinion on the increasing Muslim population in Assam? Q-4 What is your opinion on the Assam government's decision to allocate government jobs for USTM (University of Science & Technology Meghalaya) graduates run by the Ajmal Group?

Survey on Badlapur Sexual Assault

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Bombay HC raised serious concerns about school safety, stressing that discussions on the right to education are meaningless if schools aren’t safe. Justice Mohite-Dere expressed shock that even four-year-old girls are being targeted, referring to the alleged sexual assault of two minors at a Badlapur school. The court criticized the Badlapur police for delays in recording statements and demanded an explanation. 87% Believe Schools Initially Suppress Sexual Assault Cases. Q-1: Who do you hold responsible for the sexual assault incident involving minor girls in a school in Badlapur, Thane? Q-2: After incidents like Badlapur and Asola, are you afraid to send your sons or daughters to school? Q-3: In cases of sexual assault, do you think the school administration tries to suppress the issue in the beginning? Q-4: In cases of sexual assault, do you consider the arrest of the accused as the biggest punishment?

Survey on Doctors Strike

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

On a call by the SC, doctors of the Ram Manohar Lohia Hospital, All India Institutes of Medical Sciences, Indira Gandhi Hospital and several other hospitals on Thursday ended their strike in protest against the rape and murder at a Kolkata hospital. The Resident Doctors Association of Indira Gandhi Hospital has officially called off its 11-day strike in protest against the rape and murder at RG Kar Medical Hospital. 83% Support Indian Doctors Returning to Work Amid Ongoing Protests. Here is the survey: Q-1: After the Kolkata Rape-Murder Case, what is the most significant step that should be taken for the safety of Indian doctors? Q-2: Should Indian doctors return to work with their demands and protests continuing? Q-3: Has the INDI alliance weakened due to the Kolkata Rape and Murder case? Q-4: Who do you think has suffered the most due to the doctors' strike?

Survey on PM Modi’s Ukraine Visit

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

PM Narendra Modi arrived in Poland to begin his two-nation visit, which will also take him to Kyiv, Ukraine. In Kyiv, he will discuss peaceful resolutions to the Ukraine conflict with President Zelenskyy. Modi’s visit to Poland marks the first time in 45 years that an Indian Prime Minister has traveled to the country. During his stay, he will meet President Andrzej Sebastian Duda and engage in bilateral talks. 81% of those surveyed believe that PM Modi will succeed in ending the Russia-Ukraine war. Here is the survey: Q-1: Will PM Modi succeed in stopping the Russia-Ukraine war? Q-2: Why does the world have high hopes for PM Modi to stop the war in the Russia-Ukraine conflict? Q-3: Will PM Modi's visit to Poland-Ukraine enhance his influence on the diplomatic stage? Q-4: Which Prime Minister do you credit for making India a global leader?

Survey on Bharat Bandh

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The ‘Bharat Bandh’ organized by pro-quota groups in response to a Supreme Court ruling on sub-classification led to police baton-charging protesters in Bihar and road and rail blockages in various states. Despite these disruptions, normal life remained largely unaffected across the country. The protests were more intense in Dalit and tribal areas. The nationwide strike was initiated by 21 Dalit organizations. 61% of those surveyed reported trouble due to shop closures during the Bharat Bandh. Here is the survey: Q-1: Due to the Bharat Bandh, in what way were you troubled today? Q-2: What punishment should be given to those who engage in violence and vandalism during the Bharat Bandh? Q-3: What is the biggest loss caused to a country like India due to bandh politics? Q-4: Should the creamy layer system be implemented in the SC-ST categories?

Survey On 21 August Bharat Bandh

August 20, 2024, 11:52 pm

A nationwide strike, dubbed “Bharat Bandh,” is scheduled for August 21, 2024, in reaction to a recent Supreme Court ruling on SC/ST reservations. Organized by the Reservation Bachao Sangharsh Samiti and backed by SC/ST groups from Rajasthan, the protest is anticipated to have widespread support. Law enforcement agencies are gearing up to manage the Bandh, with police directed to ensure order to address any issues. 51% Oppose Bharat Bandh Against SC-ST Reservation Quota Here's the Survey: Q1: Do you support the Bharat Bandh against the SC-ST reservation quota in the Supreme Court today? Q2: If the SC-ST reservation quota remains in the Supreme Court, what will be its impact? Q3: Which political party will gain the most from the politics around the reservation issue? Q4: Do you think the anti-reservation protests are an attempt to disrupt national unity?

Survey On Kolkata Doctor Rape Case

August 20, 2024, 11:40 pm

The Supreme Court said that the nation can’t wait for another rape and murder for bringing changes on the ground and set up National Task Force to prepare an action plan to prevent violence against medical professionals and providing safe working conditions. “As more and more women join the work force, the nation cannot wait for another rape for things to change on the ground,” the top court said. 72% Believe SC’s Intervention Ensures Speedy Justice in Kolkata Case Here's the Survey: Q1: Does the Supreme Court's intervention guarantee speedy justice in the Kolkata Rape and Murder case? Q2: Can the polygraph test of Sanjay Roy in the rape and murder case help the CBI in the investigation? Q3: What is the biggest reason for the initial negligence in the Kolkata rape and murder case? Q4: What is the biggest reason for the rise of new allegations in the hospital incident after hours of rape and murder?

Survey on Raksha Bandhan

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

On Raksha Bandhan, the festival celebrated the brother-sister bond with the tying of sacred threads and a focus on pressing issues such as environmental conservation, social equity, and women’s safety. Prime Minister Narendra Modi marked the occasion at his residence, where schoolchildren tied rakhis on his wrist. He extended wishes for prosperity and good fortune, emphasizing the “auspicious” nature of the day. In Kolkata, the festival took on a significant political dimension due to ongoing protests over the alleged rape and murder of a trainee woman doctor at a state-run medical college. Protesters tied rakhis with messages demanding “justice,” and Kolkata Police personnel also participated in the gesture by tying rakhis to junior doctors who were part of the protests. 53% of Those Surveyed Believe Sisters’ and Daughters’ Safety is Ensured in the Country. Here is the Survey: Q-1 Do you feel that the safety of sisters and daughters is guaranteed in the country? Q-2 What do you consider the biggest threat to the safety of sisters and daughters? Q-3 Do women feel safe at dark places? Q-4 When is the concern for women's safety the highest? Q-5 If you are present during an incident with a woman, what will you do?

Survey on Kolkata Doctor Rape Case

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In response to nationwide protests over the rape and murder of a postgraduate trainee doctor in Kolkata, West Bengal's Health Department has rescinded the transfer orders of 42 doctors. Kolkata police have imposed Section 163 prohibitory orders around R.G. Kar Medical College and Hospital for seven days starting August 18, 2024, to prevent unlawful assembly. The Supreme Court, led by Chief Justice DY Chandrachud, will hear the case on August 20. Meanwhile, former R.G. Kar Medical College principal Dr. Sandip Ghosh is being questioned by the CBI for the second day, focusing on his call details and communications related to the incident. 94% Believe Hospital Authorities Are Covering Up Truth in Kolkata Doctor’s Rape-Murder Case. Here is the survey: Q-1: Mamata Banerjee and TMC are protesting against the Delhi doctor's rape and murder case in Kolkata. What is your opinion on this protest? Q-2: Mamata Banerjee transferred more than 40 doctors during the protest. What do you think is the reason behind this? Q-3: Do you think there are many unanswered questions regarding the rape and murder of the Kolkata doctor, raising doubts about the government's involvement? Q-4: Is there an attempt to cover up the truth by managing the hospital authorities in the rape and murder case of the Kolkata doctor?

Survey on Bangladesh Crisis

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Prime Minister Narendra Modi recently spoke with Muhammad Yunus, head of Bangladesh’s interim government, while former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina has been sheltered in India for over 10 days. This call is the second contact between India and Bangladesh since Hasina’s ousting on August 5. Modi invited Yunus to represent Bangladesh at the Global South Summit 2024 in New Delhi, which Yunus accepted. Modi reaffirmed India’s support for a "democratic, stable, peaceful, and progressive Bangladesh." Yunus committed to ensuring the safety of Hindus and minorities in Bangladesh amid rising attacks, having previously called for peace from Dhaka’s Dhakeshwari Temple. 91% Surveyed Believe Bangladesh is Under Interim Government Extremists’ Control. Here is the survey: Q-1: Has Bangladesh become a puppet in the hands of the interim government extremists? Q-2: What will be the impact of the talks between PM Modi and the interim government leader of Bangladesh, Mohammad Yunus, on the situation? Q-3: Should the United Nations also intervene in the attacks on Hindu minorities in Bangladesh and take action against the Yusuf government? Q-4: What is your opinion on the demand by Islamist leader Mujibur Rehman to implement Sharia law in Bangladesh?

Survey on Jammu & Kashmir Elections

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Jammu and Kashmir Assembly election - to be held for the first time since 2014, with the former state under President's Rule since 2018 - will be held in three phases, on September 18, September 25, and October 1, with results to be announced on October 4, the Election Commission said Friday. 45% of people think that Development and Employment are the biggest issues in this Jammu and Kashmir election. Q-1: Which party's government do you want in Jammu and Kashmir? Q-2: Who is your first choice as Chief Minister of Jammu and Kashmir? Q-3: What is the biggest issue in this Jammu and Kashmir election? Q-4: Is Article 370 still an issue in the Jammu and Kashmir elections?

Survey on Crimes Against Women

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

A semi-nude body of a second-year woman doctor was found in the chest medicine department by officials inside the seminar hall of the hospital on Friday. The post-graduate trainee (PGT) was on duty on Thursday night, while her body bore multiple injury marks like There was bleeding from both her eyes and mouth, injuries over the face and nail. The victim was also bleeding from her private parts. 84% People agree with PM Modi mentioned on the death penalty for heinous crimes like rape and murder. Here's the survey: Q-1: Prime Minister Modi has mentioned the death penalty for heinous crimes like rape and murder. What is your opinion? Q-2: Do you think political pressure due to caste-based politics affects the severity of punishments for crimes against women? Q-3: If the victim’s family reached the police station on time will there be a decline in crime against women? Q-4: What do you think is the biggest obstacle in the investigation and action against crimes against women?

Survey On 78th Independence Day

August 15, 2024, 11:58 pm

India celebrated its 78th Independence Day on Thursday, marking freedom from British rule. The nation saw Tricolours hoisted at dawn on August 15, 2024, with Prime Minister Narendra Modi leading the ceremony at Red Fort, New Delhi. In his 11th address from the Red Fort, PM Modi outlined achievements and a roadmap for a ‘Viksit Bharat’ by 2047. He emphasized the BJP’s vision for a Uniform Civil Code, presenting it as a “secular civil code” that ensures equality before the law, in line with the Constitution. Security was heightened nationwide, with over 10,000 police officers, facial recognition cameras, and snipers deployed in Delhi. Additionally, security camps were established in 13 villages in Chhattisgarh’s Maoist-affected Bastar region, where the Tricolour was hoisted for the first time to mark the occasion. 35% of those surveyed believe that Bhagat Singh is a role model among the prominent leaders of the freedom struggle Here’s the survey: Q-1 In 77 years of independence, who do you consider the most capable Prime Minister? Q-2 Among the prominent leaders of the freedom struggle, who is your role model? Q-3 In 77 years of independence, what do you consider the biggest challenge for India? Q-4 For the rapid development of India, which of these do you consider the biggest obstacle? Q-5 In the progress of independent India, which superpower has contributed the most to India? Q-6 In independent India, what do you consider the biggest step towards rapid transportation? Q-7 In 77 years of independence, what do you consider the biggest step taken by the government? Q-8 What do you consider the biggest step in India's progress since independence?

Survey On Kolkata Doctor Rape Case

August 15, 2024, 1:22 am

CBI launched its probe into the alleged rape and murder of a trainee doctor at Kolkata’s RG Kar Medical College and Hospital. This investigation follows nationwide protests and a Calcutta High Court directive for the CBI to submit a report within three weeks. The CBI’s special crime unit, led by a joint director from Delhi, has arrived in Kolkata with forensic experts to oversee the investigation. Here's the survey: Q-1: Is there hope for swift justice in the Kolkata rape-murder case through a CBI investigation? Q-2: Is there negligence on the part of the Bengal Police in investigating the Kolkata rape case? Q-3: Has there been an attempt to protect some criminals at the behest of Mamata Banerjee? Q-4: Have crimes against women decreased after the implementation of stricter laws post the Nirbhaya incident?

Survey On Pakistan Asim Munir

August 15, 2024, 1:05 am

Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir warned that attempts to undermine the military weaken the nation itself. Speaking on the eve of Pakistan’s 78th Independence Day, he stressed the need for national unity amid foreign “digital terrorism” aimed at sowing discord between state institutions and the public. Munir emphasized that the trust between the people and the armed forces is crucial. Here's the Survey Q-1: Why do you think Pakistan Army Chief General Asim Munir will give a dreadful response if war happens with India? Q-2: What is your opinion on General Asim Munir's repeated lament about Kashmir? Q-3: Who is responsible for the worsening conditions of people still living as slaves in Pakistan today? Q-4: Should Pakistan completely eliminate terrorist camps for its own progress?

Downside risk to remittance flow to South Asia

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

While South Asia’s remittance growth outlook for 2024–25 is still well above the forecast for all other regions, significant downside risks point to a slowdown as strong labor market conditions in key migrant destinations stabilize after a peak in 2023. The downside risks hinge on forecasts of subdued GDP growth, persistence of high commodity prices, and risk of a conflict-driven persistence in inflation, especially related to elevated food prices. Besides external factors, the domestic economy conditions prevailing in South Asia’s three largest recipients—India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh, that collectively receive 91 percent of the total remittance flows to South Asia—will play a fundamental role in driving remittance growth. The single most important risk on the downside is from a weak economic recovery from the recent crises in Pakistan and Bangladesh that would motivate migrants to opt for informal over formal money transfer channels, resulting in lower remittance growth. Remittance growth in Bangladesh, Nepal, Bhutan, and the Maldives has also been associated with large-scale emigration of less-skilled economic migrants in the recent past. This trend is unlikely to continue unabated as South Asian migrants compete for the same jobs as climate-change-affected and economic migrants from other migrant-sending countries. Unbounded and illegal emigration from South Asia is already encountering resistance at the United States’ southern border and in Europe

Rupee relatively stable: RBI

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The domestic foreign exchange market has remained relatively stable, lending support to overall macroeconomic stability in a period of strengthening of the USD against other currencies and bouts of volatility in international foreign exchange markets. The stability of the Indian rupee (INR) is reflected in a variety of indicators ranging from movement in real effective exchange rates, the exchange market pressure (EMP) index22 as well as volatility indicators such as implied volatility derived from option prices and onshore-offshore spreads as shown below.

Household spending on food drops

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey released by NSSO indicates a significant change in spending patterns by consumers. Spending in rural areas increased by 164 per cent and in urban areas by 146 per cent since 2011-12 at current prices. The data suggests spending on food has significantly dropped both in rural and urban areas. The contribution of food items in Monthly Per Capita Consumption Expenditure (MPCE) in 2022-23 has declined to 46 per cent from about 53 per cent in 2011-12 in rural areas and to 39 per cent from 43 per cent in 2011-12 in urban areas. However, the contribution of non-food items in MPCE in 2022-23 has increased to 54 per cent from about 47 per cent in 2011-12 in rural areas and to 61 per cent from 57 per cent in 2011-12 in urban areas. From 2011-12 to 2022-23, consumption shares for milk & milk products, fruits, egg, fish and meat, beverages and processed food, conveyance, and durable goods have risen in both rural and urban sectors. NSSO data also suggest a decline in the urban-rural gap in average MPCE. In 2022-23, the gap narrowed to about 71 per cent from 84 per cent in 2011-12 at current prices.

EPFO adds 18.92 lakh net members in April

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) has added 18.92 lakh net members in the month of April 2024. The addition during the month is the highest since the first payroll data was published in April 2018, as per the official statement. EPFO has added that around 8.87 lakh new members have enrolled during April 2024. According to the data, employees between 18-25 age are the major constituents of this addition, with a little over 55 per cent of the total new members added in April 2024, reflecting greater participation of youth and first-time workforce joiners. The share of women in the new members stood around 2.49 lakh out of total of 8.87 lakh new members, indicating a broader shift towards a more inclusive and diverse workforce An increase of 31.29 per cent has been registered in net member addition during April as compared to the previous month of March 2024 On a year-on-year basis, a growth of 10 per cent has been observed in net member additions compared to same month last year. Maharashtra, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat and Haryana are among top 5 states .

A close look at Value of Output from farming

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The shares of Crop, Livestock, Forestry and Fishing sub-sectors in value of output of Agriculture and allied sector were 54.3%, 30.9%, 7.9% and 6.9% respectively in 2022-23. Two largest groups of crops sub-sector namely ‘cereals’ (27.3%) and ‘fruits and vegetables’ (28.3%) together accounted for more than 55% in 2022-23 in total output of crop sub-sector. As a group, GVO of cereals, at Rs 336.4 thousand crore, was highest among all the crop-groups in 2011-12. However, in 2022-23, GVO (gross value of output) of ‘fruits and vegetables’ was Rs 434.7 thousand crore, about Rs 15 thousand crore higher than that of cereals. Uttar Pradesh exhibits highest value of output of cereals whereas highest value of output of fruits and vegetables is in West Bengal in 2022-23. The output of ‘livestock’ sub-sector increased steadily from Rs 487.8 thousand crore in 2011-12 to Rs 878.5 thousand crore in 2022-23. The share of milk, meat and eggs in output of livestock sub-sector was 66.5%, 23.6% and 3.7% respectively in 2022-23. Rajasthan (12.5%) and Uttar Pradesh (12.3%) together accounted for about a quarter of output of livestock sub-sector at constant prices in 2022-23. The output of fishing and aquaculture sub-sector increased steadily from about Rs 80 thousand crore in 2011-12 to about Rs 195 thousand crore in 2022-23. Andhra Pradesh remained the largest producer of fishing and aquaculture during the period 2015-16 to 2022-23 and, its share in all-India output increased from 17.7% in 2011-12 to almost 40.9% in 2022-23.

Severe child food poverty affects 1 in 4 children globally

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Across the world, millions of parents and families are struggling to provide the nutritious and diverse foods that young children need to grow, develop and learn to their full potential. Growing inequities, conflict and climate crises, combined with rising food prices, the overabundance of unhealthy foods, harmful food marketing strategies and poor child feeding practices, are condemning millions of children to child food poverty. Severe child food poverty is experienced by children belonging to poor and non-poor households, indicating that household income is not the only driver of child food poverty. Of the 181 million children living in severe child food poverty, about half (84 million, or 46 per cent) belong to households in the two poorest wealth quintiles, among whom income is likely to be a major driver of severe child food poverty. The remaining 97 million children (54 per cent) living in severe child food poverty belong to households in the middle and two upper wealth quintiles, among whom factors other than income poverty are driving the problem.

Startups Garner $4.1 BN in 1st six months of 2024

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India is fourth-highest funded country globally. While 3 unicorns have emerged, there were 17 IPOs during this period. Indian tech startups raised a total USD 4.1 billion in H1 2024, four per cent higher than H2 2023, although the numbers still trailed the levels seen a year ago, according to a report by market intelligence platform Tracxn. At USD 4.1 billion, India still remains the fourth-highest funded country globally in the tech startup landscape, it said. The United States led in overall funding volumes, followed by the UK and China. Neha Singh, Co-Founder of Tracxn, said despite four consecutive half-year periods of declining funding since H1 2022, signs of stabilisation are indeed becoming visible, and on the rise. “India’s robust performance as the fourth-highest funded country in the tech startup ecosystem is encouraging. From emerging developments in retail and enterprise applications to pioneering advancements in fintech, Indian startups are transforming industries and driving economic growth,” she said.

Forced displacement

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

At the end of 2023, an estimated 117.3 million people worldwide were forcibly displaced due to persecution, conflict, violence, human rights violations and events seriously disturbing the public order. Based on operational data, UNHCR estimates that forced displacement has continued to increase in the first four months of 2024 and by the end of April 2024 is likely to have exceeded 120 million. The increase to 117.3 million at the end of 2023 constitutes a rise of 8 per cent or 8.8 million people compared to the end of 2022 and continues a series of year-on-year increases over the last 12 years. One in every 69 people, or 1.5 per cent of the entire world’s population, is now forcibly displaced. This is nearly double the 1 in 125 people who were displaced a decade ago.

Burning fact: Live water storage IN reservoirs is 22% of total storage capacity

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Central Water Commission is monitoring live storage status of 150 reservoirs in the country. Out of these reservoirs, 20 are of hydro-electric projects having total live storage capacity of 35.299 BCM. The total live storage capacity of 150 reservoirs is 178.784 BCM which is about 69.35% of the live storage capacity of 257.812 BCM which is estimated to have been created in the country. As per reservoir storage bulletin dated June 13 this year, live storage available in these reservoirs is 38.491 BCM, which is 22% of total live storage capacity of these reservoirs. However, last year the live storage available in these reservoirs for the corresponding period was 48.592 BCM and Normal storage was 41.953 BCM. Thus, the live storage available in 150 reservoirs as June 13 is 79% of the live storage of corresponding period of last year and 92% of normal storage.

After years of shocks, global economy is stabilising

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The global economy is stabilizing but the outlook remains subdued—both advanced economies and EMDEs are projected to grow at a slower pace over 2024-26 than in the pre-pandemic decade. Recent upward pressures on global core inflation are anticipated to gradually ease, such that headline inflation converges to levels broadly consistent with central bank targets by 2026. Market expectations for the path of U.S. policy rates have been repeatedly revised higher. Amid elevated borrowing costs, about two- fifths of EMDEs are acutely vulnerable to debt stress. In 2024-25, growth is expected to underperform its 2010-19 average in countries comprising more than 80 percent of global output and population. The multiple shocks of recent years have impeded per capita income catch-up, with almost half of EMDEs losing ground relative to advanced economies over 2020-24. Global trade Global trade in goods and services was nearly flat in 2023 — the weakest performance outside of global recessions in the past 50 years. Amid a sharp slowdown in global industrial production, the volume of goods trade contracted for most of 2023 and fell by 1.9 percent for the year as a whole. The evolution of goods trade diverged across regions, with volumes declining in advanced economies, especially in Europe, and stagnating in EMDEs as expansions in China and Europe and Central Asia (ECA) offset contrac- tions in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), and Middle East and North Africa (MNA). The value of global services trade grew about 9 percent in 2023, driven primarily by a recovery in tourism flows—exports of travel services surged by about 38 percent (WTO 2024). However, the pace of expansion in tourism was substantially below that in 2022, with recent data indicating tourism activity in line with pre-pandemic levels, suggesting a near-full recovery in most regions. Stabilization in services trade is reflected in the steadying of the global services PMI for new export orders, which has remained closer to neutral thresholds compared to last year. The number of new trade-restricting measures is still well above pre-pandemic levels—although down from the historical high reached in 2023— exerting a further drag on global trade. Recent attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, coupled with climate-related shipping disruptions in the Panama Canal, have affected maritime transit and freight rates along these critical routes (Bogetic et al. 2024). These disruptions, however, have not yet led to a substantial increase in global supply chain pressures or lengthened global supplier delivery times. Adverse effects have been imited to a few regions and specific industries so far. Global trade growth is projected to pick up to 2.5 percent this year, a significant improvement from last year but well below the average rates observed in the two decades preceding the pandemic (figure 1.3.C). The forecast entails a pickup in goods trade growth after a sluggish start to the year, supported by a rebound in global goods demand as inventory restocking resumes in the United States and the euro area, and as demand from China stabilizes. Meanwhile, services trade growth is expected to stabilize near its pre-pandemic pace. In 2025, trade growth is expected to firm to 3.4 percent, in tandem with a pickup in growth in the euro area and EMDEs excluding China, and remain steady in 2026.

Rising use of credit cards

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Food, beverage, and tobacco spending is within 10-15%, and spending on health and wellness is between 5-10%. The Reserve Bank of India in its release for February 2024, reveals a notable growth in credit card transactions along with a 34% higher year-on-year figure in volume and a 25% rise in value 7% rise in value. Interestingly, the outstanding credit card numbers have gained 10-crore figures, taking up to 26% of the population. The fact that up to 6% of personal loans are a result of credit card transactions shows a crucial connection as well as a rising influence of the financial types of credit in the Indian market. The escalating trend of credit card expenditure in India highlights a growing reliance on plastic money among the youth, raising questions about its implications for financial freedom and potential debt. In the financial year 2020, credit card spending stood at 7.30 trillion INR. This figure saw a dip to 6.30 trillion INR in 2021, likely influenced by the economic disruptions of the pandemic. However, subsequent years have shown a dramatic increase: 9.71 trillion INR in 2022, 14.30 trillion INR in 2023, and a staggering 18.30 trillion INR so far in 2024. This surge reflects an increasing comfort with credit usage, driven by consumer confidence, the convenience of cashless transactions, and aggressive credit card marketing. While this trend signals enhanced purchasing power and financial inclusion, it also raises concerns about the risk of accumulating debt, especially among younger demographics who might be enticed by the short-term benefits without fully understanding the long-term financial commitments. According to the present trends of credit cards among the youth group, there is a variation in their spending pattern across several sectors. Food, beverage, and tobacco spending is within 10-15%, and spending on health and wellness is between 5-10%. On average, groceries comprise their spending between 12 and 17%, while retail shopping constitutes 25 and 30% more. Also, fuel costs contribute to their credit card expenses, which constitute 10-15 percent. These patterns focus on youth and shed light on their importance as being key players in the consumer market. Analysing the expenditure patterns of credit card holders reveals significant insights into consumer behavior and broader economic trends. With regard to the spending on food and beverages, which constitutes between 10% and 15% of total expenditure, these costs are also considered necessary. This category is further fueled by the need to feed oneself, the rate at which people are turning to eating out due to tight schedules, and the use of takeaway and delivery services. Medical and wellness expenses, which form 5-10% of the total, can be attributed to increased consciousness about disease prevention, self-care, and fitness, as well as higher medical requirements as a result of an aging population. This encompasses expenditures such as medical bills, fitness subscriptions, and wellness products, among others. Grocery expenses make up 12-17% of total spending and reflect people’s focus on necessity purchases and the desire to cook at home. The growth of online groceries also shows a social change of people preferring convenience and the ability to save time. Retail shopping, the biggest expenditure at 25-30%, involves the consumption of goods including clothing, electronics, and household goods. This category is affected by lifestyle and leisure and is found to be relatively higher during sales, holidays, and other occasions. The rise of e-commerce adds more evidence on how digital transformation affects consumer expenditure patterns. Transportation costs, which account for 10-15% of costs, indicate recurring travel needs and vehicle maintenance. This category also illustrates the effects of increasing fuel prices.

Real estate – a hedge against inflation

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Steady population growth coupled with urbanization consistently fuels housing demand. As more people migrate to cities for better opportunities, rising residential demand exerts upward pressure on prices. Moreover, real estate investments can generate rental income, which potentially grows over time in response to inflation. As the cost of living rises, landlords typically adjust rental rates. Also, investors can leverage their real estate assets to borrow funds for further real estate acquisitions. During inflationary periods, the cost of borrowing (interest rates) typically rises. However, investors who have secured fixed-rate financing before inflationary pressures set in can benefit from lower borrowing costs in real terms, enhancing the profitability of real estate investments. “Real estate investments offer diversification benefits within a portfolio,” says Agarwal. “Unlike financial assets such as stocks and bonds, which may be negatively impacted by inflationary pressures, real estate - including residential, commercial, and retail - provides a tangible asset with intrinsic value. Diversifying investment portfolios with real estate holdings can mitigate overall portfolio risk and enhance long-term returns.” Residential real estate prices have risen continuously since 2013, and in the last two years, appreciated at a CAGR of 13% while CPI inflation moderated by 1.3% on an annual average basis to 5.4% at the end of FY24. This trend signifies a clear outperformance of real estate prices compared to inflation.

Let us end child labour!

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

This year’s World Day will focus on celebrating the 25th anniversary of the adoption of the Worst Forms of Child Labour Convention (1999, No. 182). It also presents an opportunity to remind all stakeholders to improve their implementation of the two fundamental Conventions on child labour - Convention No. 182 and Convention No. 138 concerning the Minimum Age for Admission to Employment or Work (1973). Although significant strides have been taken in reducing child labour over time, recent years have seen global trends reverse, underscoring the pressing need to unite efforts in expediting actions to eradicate child labour in all its manifestations. With the adoption of Sustainable Development Goal Target 8.7, the international community made a commitment to the elimination of child labour in all its forms by 2025. Now is the time to make the elimination of child labour a reality! This World Day Against Child Labour, June 12, 2024, we are calling for: • The effective implementation of the ILO Convention No. 182 on the Worst Forms of Child Labour; • Reinvigorated national, regional and international action to end child labour in all of its forms, including worst forms, through adopting national policies and addressing root causes as called upon in the 2022 Durban Call to Action; • Universal ratification and effective implementation of ILO Convention No. 138 on the Minimum Age, which, together with the universal ratification of ILO Convention No. 182 on the Worst Forms of Child Labour achieved in 2020, would provide all children with legal protection against all forms of child labour. Prevalence of child labour Since 2000, for nearly two decades, the world had been making steady progress in reducing child labour. But over the past few years, conflicts, crises and the COVID-19 pandemic, have plunged more families into poverty – and forced millions more children into child labour. Economic growth has not been sufficient, nor inclusive enough, to relieve the pressure that too many families and communities feel and that makes them resort to child labour. Today, 160 million children are still engaged in child labour. That is almost one in ten children worldwide. Africa ranks highest among regions both in the percentage of children in child labour — one-fifth — and the absolute number of children in child labour — 72 million. Asia and the Pacific ranks second highest in both these measures — 7% of all children and 62 million in absolute terms are in child labour in this region. The Africa and the Asia and the Pacific regions together account for almost nine out of every ten children in child labour worldwide. The remaining child labour population is divided among the Americas (11 million), Europe and Central Asia (6 million), and the Arab States (1 million). In terms of incidence, 5% of children are in child labour in the Americas, 4% in Europe and Central Asia, and 3% in the Arab States. While the percentage of children in child labour is highest in low-income countries, their numbers are actually greater in middle-income countries. 9% all children in lower-middle-income countries, and 7% of all children in upper-middle-income countries, are in child labour. Statistics on the absolute number of children in child labour in each national income grouping indicate that 84 million children in child labour, accounting for 56% of all those in child labour, actually live in middle-income countries, and an additional 2 million live in high-income countries. There are 160 million of children in child labour Not all work performed by children is child labour. International standards define child labour as work that is hazardous to a child’s health and development, demands too many hours and/or is performed by children who are too young. Usually, child labour interferes with a child’s right to education and to play. This issue is at the core of the ILO mission.

Women On Their Priorities And Building The Future They Want

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The ‘We the Women’ survey reveals that despite facing a global backlash against women’s rights, 85 per cent of the 25 000 women surveyed across 185 countries express willingness to contribute to advancing their rights. An overwhelming majority — 60 per cent — of women believe that women’s representation in leadership roles in their respective countries will improve over the next decade. Moreover, more than two-thirds of the women worldwide assert the necessity for enhanced representation in leadership positions at both national and global levels to influence the future. An overwhelming 85 per cent of women identify themselves as advocates for women’s rights. The survey reveals widespread optimism among women regarding a range of issues, even amidst the world’s concurrent pressing challenges, conflicts, and crises. For women, climate and conflict are the top concerns. The survey also reveals a widespread dissatisfaction with international collaboration in addressing global challenges. Only 19 per cent believe countries are adequately cooperating to resolve conflicts, 21 per cent to tackle economic insecurity, and 30 per cent to address gender inequality — highlighting a perceived lack of effective multilateral action. WOMEN’S LEADERSHIP The survey revealed that a large majority of women polled around the world are willing to contribute to efforts aimed at advancing women’s rights and participation in government. The We the Women survey reveals that despite facing a global backlash against women’s rights, 85 per cent of the women expressed willingness to contribute to advancing their rights. Women are optimistic about their representation in leadership roles in their respective countries. 60 per cent believe that it will improve over the next decade. Moreover, more than two-thirds of the women worldwide assert the necessity for enhanced representation in leadership positions. They believe this is essential at both national and global levels to influence the future. An overwhelming 85% of the respondents consider themselves to be ‘women’s rights advocates,’ which is true across every region – 87% in Africa, 81% in Asia, 77% in Eastern Europe, 90% in Latin America, and 85% in the West. OPTIMISM OVER PESSIMISM In the midst of global crises and turmoil, and even amid a global backlash on women’s rights and participation, women are a strong force for optimism and positive change. A solid majority (57%) expect their quality of life to improve over the next five years, while only 9% expect it to worsen. Younger women are 20 points more positive than older women about their future. There is a strong sense among the women surveyed that there has been some progress in their own lives. Overall, 61% say that their own “quality of life is better than” it was five years ago. Only 10% say they are worse off, and 23% are not sure. Younger women (under 35) are much more likely to feel that their quality of life will be better in the next five years (63% to 43% for the group of older women). BARRIERS FOR CHANGE Although women are a force for positive change, they continue to face barriers that might prevent them from realizing their full potential and contributing to their communities and countries. Mental health is a major issue for almost half of the women worldwide. A disproportionate burden of domestic and care work is also reported as a major issue for 40% of women, which would prevent them from being better off in the next 5 years. WOMEN AND THE SDGs Among the SDGs, women consider health and education as significant prerequisites for achieving global goals. In a record year for elections around the world, women rank living in peaceful countries, where justice prevails and institutions are strong, as one of the top three priorities. SDG 3 on Good Health and Well-being - is ranked among the top three by 40% of women, SDG 4 on Quality Education – by 38% of women, and SDG 16 - Peace, Justice, and Strong Institutions – by 38% of women. KEY ISSUES AFFECTING WOMEN NOW Around half of the women worldwide report that climate change, economic insecurity, and gender inequality significantly affect them today. Lack of access to technology is reported as an issue by only a quarter of women globally. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CONFLICT ON WOMEN’S MINDS FOR THEIR FUTURE Women around the world expect war and climate change to be two major challenges that will increasingly affect them in the next decade. More than half of women surveyed – and 70% of women in Eastern Europe - are affected by armed conflict or anticipate being affected by war in the next decade. 86% of women respondents are affected by climate change or anticipate being affected by it in the next decade, with foreseen impacts on their health and in terms of natural disasters. When asked about the extent to which key issues affect women now versus the next decade, what is most significant is the dramatic increases in concern over climate change (9 points) and war and conflict (10 points). When it comes to climate change, women expect to be most impacted in terms of their health and in relation to natural disasters.

Consumers see prices moving up over one year

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Reserve Bank released the results of May 2024 round of its bi-monthly inflation expectations survey of households (IESH)1 2. The survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2024 in 19 major cities, with responses from 5,943 urban households. Female respondents accounted for 52.6 per cent of this sample. Findings: l Households’ inflation expectations for the three months and one year ahead periods increased by 20 basis points (bps) and 10 bps, respectively, but remained in single digits; their perception on current inflation, however, moderated by 10 bps and stood at 8.0 per cent in the latest survey round. l Higher share of respondents expected prices and inflation to rise for all major product groups over the next three months as well as one-year periods. l At the aggregate level, female respondents had marginally lower inflation assessment and expectations than their male counterparts. l Among occupation categories, self-employed respondents group expected highest inflation. l For one year horizon, households’ expectations on general prices remained closely aligned with their assessment related to food prices and housing.

RBI survey: Consumers expect rise in spending over one year

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Reserve Bank has released the results of May 2024 round of its bi-monthly consumer confidence survey (CCS). The survey collects current perceptions (vis-à-vis a year ago) and one year ahead expectations of households on general economic situation, employment scenario, overall price situation, own income and spending across 19 major cities. The latest round of the survey was conducted during May 2-11, 2024, covering 6,083 respondents. Female respondents accounted for 52.7 per cent of this sample. Findings: l Consumer confidence for the current period paused on its uptrend as sentiments on all parameters, except spending, recorded some moderations in the latest survey round; the current situation index (CSI)2 moderated to 97.1 in May 2024 from 98.5 two months ago. l For the year ahead, consumer confidence remained at elevated level in the optimistic terrain though it declined, albeit marginally, due to relatively tempered sentiments on the general economic situation and employment prospects. l The future expectations index (FEI) stood at 124.8 in May 2024 (125.2 in the previous survey round). l Consumers expect higher rise in overall spending over the next one year vis-à-vis the previous survey round; more respondents expect an increase in both essential and non-essential spending.

A close look at the 11th Sikkim Legislative Assembly

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

• The Sikkim Krantikari Morcha (SKM) won 31 of the 32 seats. Previously in 2004, Sikkim Democratic Front (SDF) had won all seats barring one, and in 2009, SDF had won all 32 seats in the Assembly. • In 2024, four women have been elected to the Assembly,onemore thanin2019. • The average age of the newly elected MLAs is 53. The proportion of MLAs above 55 years has increased from 34% in 2019 to 42% in 2024. • The proportion of MLAs with at least an undergraduate degree has gone up from 48% in 2019 to 55% in 2024. • In 2009 and 2014, one candidate won from two constituencies. In 2019, three candidates won from two constituencies each. In 2024, one candidate has won from two constituencies. Numbers have been adjusted to prevent double-counting in the charts on age and education. This analysis does not account for any changes in the Assembly due to bye-elections. Source: PRS Legislative Research

Climate shocks impart uncertainty to food inflation: RBI

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The increasing incidence of climate shocks imparts considerable uncertainty to the food inflation and overall inflation outlook. Low reservoir levels, especially in the southern states and the outlook of above normal temperatures during the initial months of 2024-25 need close monitoring. The volatility in international crude oil prices, the persisting geopolitical tensions and elevated global financial market volatility also pose upward risk to the inflation trajectory. Taking into account these factors, CPI inflation for 2024-25 is projected at 4.5 per cent with risks evenly balanced.

Tobacco kills

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

World No Tobacco Day 2024 was observed on May 31 . The habit of smoking is highly prevalent in many countries. Latest data from a Statista Consumer Insights survey, says roughly 36 % of urban Indian respondents said they smoke cigarettes at least occasionally.

Temp hits new highs, yet world fails to cut emissions

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Most emissions come from just a few countries The top five emitters (China, the United States of America, India, the European Union, the Russian Federation) accounted for about 60 per cent of greenhouse gas emissions in 2021. The Group of 20 (Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, France, Germany, India, Indonesia, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Mexico, Russia, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Turkey, the United Kingdom, the United States, and the European Union) are responsible for about 76 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. By contrast, least developed countries account for about 3.8 per cent of global emissions, while small island developing States contribute less than 1 per cent.

MMR home to 154 skyscrapers, 207 under construction

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR) currently has 154 high-rise towers of more than 40 floors each and over 200 skyscrapers are expected to come up in the city till 2030, according to Anarock. [caption id="attachment_357519" align="aligncenter" width="612"] Panoramic view of south central Mumbai - the financial capital of India - at golden hour showing vast contrast in the living conditions of people with dwellings of lower middle class in foreground and towers where elite stay in the far background.[/caption] Real estate consultant Anarock Chairman Anuj Puri said between 2019 and 2023, 154 high-rises with over 40 floors hit the MMR market. “...between 2024 and 2030, 207 more will be completed. These projects have already been launched across the region,” Puri said. “Skyscrapers are synonymous with Mumbai’s real estate landscape, and increasingly define it. Apart from its extreme shortage of developable land, the city’s towering urban aesthetic has become an apt symbol of its economic might.” Anarock noted that the development of high-rises also helps decongest the city. “Skyscrapers include amenities and residences in a single vertical space, thereby reducing residents’ need to leave the premises for leisure pursuits. Apart from thereby easing traffic congestion, these buildings also tend to trigger significant infrastructure developments around them, including better roads and improved public transport facilities,” the consultant said. As per the data, South Central Mumbai has the maximum 103 high-rise towers. Of these, at least 61 towers are completed and another 42 will be completed within the 2024-2030 period. Mumbai’s Central suburbs has 87 high-rises of over 40 floors. Of these 42 are completed and another 45 towers are under construction. The city’s Western suburbs have at least 80 high rises, with 50 towers complete and 30 towers scheduled for completion in the next six years. Thane has at least 61 high rises, of which just 2 towers are completed and the remaining 59 under development. Navi Mumbai follows with a total of 25 high-rise towers of 40+ floors - 10 are complete and 15 in various stages of construction. The peripheral central and western suburbs have limited high-rise towers 5 towers in total, all completed. Micro-markets like Byculla, Worli, Lower Parel, Prabhadevi, Mahalaksh mi, Marine Line, Mulund, Chembur, Kanjurmarg, Santacruz, Malad, Goregaon, and Thane City are the definitive skyscraper hotspots. Commenting on the report, construction firm BCD MD Angad Bedi said, “We are quite bullish on the Mumbai real estate market as it continues to attract occupiers and employees, thereby keeping the demand high across CBD, SBD and other sub-markets. This, complemented with the spate of redevelopment projects in city hot spots, is leading to the development of high rise projects across the city.”. This mushrooming of high-rise projects will accelerate Mumbai’s journey to becoming a global metropolitan city on the lines of New York and Hong Kong, he added.

Leasing sector to play a key role for MSMes: report

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

A transformative era is on the horizon for India’s leasing sec tor, according to the latest report by FICCI and PwC titled, ‘Unveiling Opportunities: Exploring India’s Leasing Landscape’. The report underscores leasing as a pivotal mechanism for fostering growth across both private and public sectors, with implications for financial inclusion, particularly among micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs). The ability to access high quality machinery is high lighted as a crucial factor that can drive industries towards the government’s ‘Atmanirbhar Bharat’ and ‘Make in India’ initiatives. Rajiv Sabharwal, Chair man of the FICCI National Committee on NBFCs and MD & CEO of Tata Capital, emphasized the transformative potential of the leasing industry in India. He said, “The leasing industry in India is at the cusp of transformation, which is being shaped by a multitude of factors that are coming together. These factors include the entry of new players in the market including original equipment manufacturers (OEMs), diversification of asset classes and understanding the benefits of leasing as a financing tool for businesses.” Sabharwal added, “The industry is still at a nascent stage when compared to the progress seen in some of the more developed markets such as Germany, Australia, Japan, the UK and the US. Conversely, this also indicates that the industry holds tremendous potential for growth in the Indian market as well.” Sidharth Diwan, Partner - Digital & Strategy at PwC India, highlighted the critical role of leasing in India’s journey towards sustainable growth and economic resilience. “As India embarks on its journey towards sustain able growth and economic resilience, the leasing market assumes heightened significance. By fostering in novation, facilitating access to capital and promoting efficiency, leasing emerges as a catalyst for economic development and inclusive growth in the country”, Diwan stated. The Gujarat International Finance Tec-City (GIFT City) is identified as a major driver for the leasing industry. Its state-of-the-art infrastructure and business friendly environment have attracted both global and domestic companies to establish leasing operations, providing a robust platform for growth. The rising demand for flexible and cost-effective solutions has significantly boosted interest in leasing services. Companies benefit from accessing assets with minimal upfront costs, enabling them to adapt and upgrade as needed. This approach aligns with circular economy principles, promoting asset reuse and recycling. Leasing is also making inroads into diverse sectors such as technology, agriculture, and renewable energy, thereby fostering cross-industry collaboration. The leasing industry is undergoing a significant digital transformation, leveraging technologies like robotic process automation (RPA), data analytics, artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning (ML), blockchain, and asset telematics. These innovations stream line processes, enhance risk assessment, and improve customer experiences. With remote asset inspections powered by drones and augmented reality, the industry is set for a new era of efficiency and improved user satisfaction. There is a growing interest in sustainable and green leasing driven by environ mental concerns. Both lessors and lessees are adopting environmentally friendly practices and incorporating environmental clauses and performance benchmarks in leasing contracts. This trend promotes energy efficiency and sustainability within the leasing industry.

Projected recovery in global economy will boost india’s growth: SBI research

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Economic Research Department of the State Bank of India (SBI) has released a detailed research report authored projecting a significant boost in India’s economic growth, driven by a recovering global economy. The report anticipates that India’s GDP growth could touch 8 per cent in FY24, supported by strong per formance across various economic indicators and fa vorable monsoon conditions. The report also highlights the potential impact of global economic resilience on In dia’s growth trajectory. Despite the challenges faced by the global economy, in cluding geopolitical tensions and extreme weather events, global growth remains resil ient, supported by easing inflationary pressures and strong employment condi tions. The International Mone tary Fund (IMF) in its April 2024 World Economic Out look (WEO) raised the global growth forecast for 2024 to 3.2 per cent, an improvement from its earlier projections. Global headline inflation is expected to decline from an annual average of 6.8 per cent in 2023 to 5.9 per cent in 2024, and further to 4.5 per cent in 2025, according to IMF estimates. This reduction in inflation is expected to prompt some central banks, particularly the European Central Bank (ECB), to reinvigorate growth efforts. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has projected Q4 FY24 Real GDP growth at 7.3 per cent, with Q1 FY25 expected to reach 7.5 per cent. For the full year FY25, GDP growth is anticipated to be 7.0 per cent. SBI’s in-house developed Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model, using 30 high frequency indicators, fore casts Q4 FY24 GDP growth at 7.4 per cent. The report identifies a con sistent growth trend across both urban and rural sectors in India. Urban economic momentum is indicated by strong performance in pas senger vehicle sales, airport passenger traffic, GST col lections, credit card transac tions, petroleum consump tion, and toll collection. Rural economic indicators also show a positive trend, with diesel consumption and two-wheeler sales increasing. An ‘above normal’ mon soon forecast bodes well for the rural economy, enhanc ing the supply of essential commodities like pulses, oilseeds, and cereals. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) predicts favorable conditions with the development of La Nina and a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), suggesting a good monsoon season ahead. Corporate India continues to demonstrate resilience, with around 2,400 listed entities reporting strong numbers in Q4 FY24. While top-line growth stood at 9 per cent, EBIDTA increased by approximately 21 per cent. However, there was some pressure on prof itability, with PAT growth declining to around 12 per cent from 42 per cent in the previous two quarters. Corporate Gross Value Added (GVA) grew by around 18 per cent in Q4 FY24, showing a slight reduction from previous quarters. With the global economy showing signs of recovery and easing inflationary pressures, India is well positioned to achieve robust growth

Above Normal rainfall most likely this monsoon: Met Dept

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Since 2021, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been using a new strategy for issuing operational long rangeforecasts on a monthly and seasonal scales for rainfall and temperatures across the country. For this, a newly developed Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) forecasting system is used. The MME system utilizes simulations from the coupled global climate models (CGCMs) sourced from various global climate prediction and research centers, including IMD’s Monsoon Mission Climate Forecasting System (MMCFS) model. On 15th April, 2024, the IMD had issued the first-stage forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall, consisting of quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the country as a whole, and the spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for the tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of the seasonal (June-September) rainfall. As part of the second stage forecasts, the IMD has prepared the following forecasts: 1 Updated quantitative and probabilistic forecasts for the monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole and spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the country. 2. Probabilistic forecasts for the seasonal rainfall over the four homogenous regions of India (northwest India, central India, south Peninsula, and northeast India) and the monsoon core zone (MCZ) consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas of the country. 3. Probabilistic forecast for the June rainfall over the country as a whole and spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the June rainfall over the country. 4. Spatial distribution of the probabilistic forecasts for the June Temperatures (Maximum and Minimum) and Outlook for Heatwaves for the month of June over the country. The updated MME forecast for the 2024 southwest monsoon season rainfall has been calculated by incorporating forecasts from different CGCMs based on the May initial conditions. The MME forecast specifically utilizes best few climate models that have the highest forecast skills over the Indian monsoon region, including the IMD’s MMCFS model to prepare an improved and reliable forecast. Heat Wave over a location refers to a prolonged period of excessively hot weather (above certain threshold temperature value) over the location. 2. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Conditions in the equatorial Pacific & Indian Oceans The strong El Niño conditions over equatorial Pacific observed in early part of this year have weakened rapidly into weak El Niño conditions and are currently transitioning into ENSO-neutral conditions. The latest Climate model forecasts indicate ENSO-neutral conditons are likely to establish during the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the later part of the monsoon season. At present, neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions are prevailing over the Indian Ocean. The latest global climate model forecasts indicate these contions to transform into positive IOD conditions during the monsoon season. 3. Second Stage Forecasts for the 2024 Southwest Monsoon Rainfall 3a. Updated Forecast for the Rainfall over the Country as a whole during Monsoon Season, 2024 Quantitatively, the monsoon seasonal rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with a model error of ± 4%. The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm. The 5 category probability forecasts for the Seasonal (June to September) rainfall over the country as a whole during 2024 are given below. It suggests highest probability for the above normal rainfall (105-110% of LPA) for the country as a whole. It may be noted that the probability for above normal rainfall category is exactly double of its climatological probability. 3.b. Updated Forecast for the Spatial Distribution of rainfall over the Country during monsoon season, 2024 The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) of seasonal rainfall (June to September, 2024) is depicted in Figure 1. The forecast indicates above normal rainfall is most likely over most parts of the country except many areas of northern part of Northwest India, Northeast India and eastern part of the Central India and adjoining areas of east India where below normal to normal rainfall is most likely.There is no signal by the model over the white shaded areas within the land region of the country. Above-normal rainfall can boost agriculture and water resources but also brings risks of flooding, transportation disruptions, public health issues, and ecosystem damage. To manage these, it is advised to reinforce infrastructure, implement early warnings provided by IMD, enhance surveillance and conservation efforts, and build suitable response systems in sectors likely to be affected. 3c. Forecast for the Monsoon Rainfall over the four Homogenous regions of the country and Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) during Monsoon Season, 2024 The tercile category forecasts for the four broad homogenous regions and MCZ for the monsoon seasonal (June-September) rainfall during 2024 are given in the tables below. Tercile categories have equal climatological probabilities of 33.33% of LPA each. 4. Probabilistic Forecast for the Rainfall over the Country during June, 2024 The average June rainfall for the country as a whole is most likely to be normal (92-108% of the Long Period Average (LPA)).The LPA of the June rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is16.69cm. The spatial distribution of probabilistic forecasts for tercile categories (above normal, normal, and below normal) for rainfall during June, 2024 is displayed in Figure 2. The above normal monthly rainfall is most likely over most areas of the south peninsula, and adjoining central India, and over isolated areas of Northwest and Northeast India. Below normal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern and eastern parts of Northwest India and eastern part of Central India, and some areas over Northeast India and southeastern Peninsula. Normal rainfall is most likely over the remaining areas.There is no signal by the model over white shaded areas within the land region of the country. 5. Probabilistic Forecast for the Temperatures over the Country during June, 2024 In June 2024, above-normal monthly maximum temperatures are likely over most parts of the country, except many parts of the southern peninsular India, where normal to below-normal temperatures are most likely. During June 2024, above-normal monthly minimum temperatures are likely across most parts of the country, except for the extreme northern parts of northwest India and a few pockets of east and Northeast India, where normal to below-normal minimum temperatures are most likely(Fig. 3b). 6. Heat Wave outlook for the Month of June 2024 The anomaly (deviation from the normal) forecast for the number of heatwave days in the country for June 2024 is shown in Fig. 4. During June, 2024, above- normal heatwave days are likely over most parts of Northwest India and adjoining areas of Central India. During heat waves, vulnerable populations, like the elderly and those with health conditions, face risks of heat-related illnesses. Prolonged extreme heat strains infrastructure and leads to dehydration. Authorities must act proactively by opening cooling centers, issuing advisories, and reducing urban heat islands. These steps are crucial for protecting public health during heat waves. One has to stay hydrated and remain under optimally cool environment and avoid strenuous activities during peak heat hours to stay safe during heatwaves. 7. Extended Range Forecast and short to medium range forecasting services IMD also regularly prepares and provides extended range forecasts (7–day averaged forecasts for the next four weeks) for rainfall, maximum temperatures, and minimum temperatures over the country. These forecasts are updated every week on Thursday. These forecasts are based on the Multi-model Ensemble Dynamical Extended Range Forecasting System, which is currently operational at IMD. The forecasts are available through the IMD website https://mausam.imd.gov.in/imd_latest/contents/extendedrangeforecast.php). The extended range forecast is followed by short to medium range forecasts issued daily based on various very high resolution Global abd Regional Models.

Gold prices pull back modestly after record surge

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Gold prices have eased from their peak of mid-April, likely due to profit taking. Nevertheless high gold prices prevailed, ending April up 4% on the back of an 8% rise in March. Since mid-April1 gold prices have moderated 1% and have risen by 15% so far this year, trading at over US$2,350/oz at the time of writing.2 Domestic landed gold prices in India3 have followed the movement of international gold prices owing to the relative stability of the INR vs the US dollar. Festival alongside price moderation stimulates demand After a generally weak March and April, there was a resurgence in gold demand ahead of and around the Akshaya Tritiya festival on 10 May. Considered one of the two most important days for buying gold traditionally, anecdotal evidence suggests that demand exceeded expectations, with strong activity observed in both urban and rural areas; some industry participants even hinting at record buying in value terms. Anecdotal accounts from jewellers and various industry stakeholders suggest that there was significant pre- booking of gold jewellery, bars and coins well before the festival, as consumers took advantage of the moderation in price from its April peak. Additionally, there was notable demand for wedding jewellery - typically heavier pieces - despite the busy wedding season being some months away. Consumers were apparently bringing forward their wedding purchases in anticipation of further price rises in the near future. Demand for bars and coins, particularly among younger age groups, was reportedly robust, reflecting favourable consumer attitudes toward gold as an asset. Anecdotal reports from jewellers suggest that the value of sales during the festival was appreciably higher compared to the previous year, with healthy volumes. This growth occurred despite the festival lasting longer last year in some regions4 and gold prices being 20% higher, suggesting that consumers likely accepted gold’s higher price and may have a positive view of its trend. However, the likelihood of the continuation of such demand is low with consumers making purchases around festivals. Overall buying activity is expected to be restrained. Rising consumer interest was reflected in the reduced discounts on domestic gold prices in relation to international prices. India’s gold price discounts averaged US$3/oz in the first fortnight of May, down from US$10/oz in April. RBI enhances its gold stockpile The RBI is consistently bolstering its gold reserves. According to RBI data and our own estimates, its gold holdings reached a new peak of 828.6 tonnes at the beginning of May.6 After adding 5.6t in April,7 RBI has now made a net acquisition of gold bullion equivalent to 25t since the start of the year. On average, the RBI has been purchasing around 6t of gold per month this year. The central bank’s net gold acquisitions in 2024 have already exceeded those of 2023 (16.2t). As of early May, gold comprises 8.5% of total reserves, up from 7.7% at the close of 2023. The RBI is among major emerging market central banks that have been driving gold purchases in 2024. Having surpassed the whole year purchase of 2023 in the first three months of 2024 itself, the central bank seems to be on track for net gold acquisition reminiscent of levels seen in 2021 (a total of 77.5 tonnes with average monthly buying of 6.5t). Resurgence in gold imports Following a significant decline in March, gold imports witnessed a resurgence in April, reaching a value of US$3.1bn, more than twice the amount of the previous month. Import figures for April also marked a three-fold increase from the corresponding period last year. This is despite record high prices during the month and can be attributed to the stocking up in readiness for Akshaya Tritiya. In volume terms, as per our estimates, gold imports in April likely hovered around 50t, higher than the 34t of gold imports in March and 17t in April23. (Source: World Gold Council)

How much of India’s wastewater is left untreated?

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

As is the case with rapid population growth and urbanization in many so-called developing nations, waste management becomes a problem not only in rural areas but also in densely populated cities. A textbook example of this growth outpacing infrastructural capacities is the situation in urban hotspots in India like Delhi, where a report by Euronews from May 2023 mentions neighborhoods with “open gutters [...] filled with plastic and grey-colored water”. While the number of operational sewage treatment plants doubled between 2014 and 2020, the capacity for water treatment is still severely lacking. According to the latest annual report by the Central Pollution Control Board, India generated 72.4 billion liters of wastewater per day across all provinces, with Maharashtra (9.1 billion), Uttar Pradesh (8.3 billion), Tamil Nadu (6.4 billion) and Gujarat (5.0 billion) being responsible for around 40 percent of wastewater. The 1,093 sewage treatment plants only had operational capacities of 26.9 billion liters of wastewater per day, with around 400 plants either non-operational or under construction as of the latest available tally from 2020/2021. This translates to only 37 percent of sewage being treated, exacerbating the risks of communicable diseases and contaminated food and drinking water. While India is seemingly hard-pressed to keep up with the amount of wastewater its population generates, measures to grant more people access to potable water and basic sanitation and hygiene were scaled up significantly in recent decades. For example, the Swachh Bharat Abhiyan campaign, translatable to Clean India, initiated in 2014 aims to eliminate open defecation by installing upwards of 100 million toilets in the country. Nevertheless, in 2022, only 75 percent of rural Indian households had at least basic access to sanitation, while 30 percent of homes didn’t have their own washing facility with soap and water according to data from the WHO and Unicef’s Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene. statista.com

India’s global Travel & Tourism index rank up at 39th: WEF

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India was ranked 54th in the previously published index in 2021, though changes made to the index parameters limit its comparability to earlier years. India’s rank on the World Economic Forum’s Travel & Tourism Development Index 2024 has risen to 39th place, with global tourism activities returning to pre-pandemic levels, the annual report showed on Tuesday. While the US topped the list, India is ranked highest in South Asia and among the lower-middle-income economies, the WEF said. India was ranked 54th in the previously published index in 2021, though changes made to the index parameters limit its comparability to earlier years. After the US, Spain, Japan, France and Australia figure among the top five in the 2024 list. The index, prepared in collaboration with the University of Surrey, showed India is highly price-competitive (18th) and boasts competitive Air Transport (26th) and Ground and Port (25th) infrastructure. In particular, India’s strong Natural (6th), Cultural (9th) and Non-Leisure (9th) Resources help drive travel, and the country is only one of three to score in the top 10 for all the resource pillars, the WEF said. Moreover, despite a decline compared to 2019, the country still scores well for travel and tourism demand sustainability, especially thanks to more sustainable long stays among inbound visitors. It further said that as with many economies, travel and tourism enabling conditions in India have been impacted by global inflationary supply-side trends for the sector, with price competitiveness declining, while air transport and tourist services infrastructure are yet to recover to the 2019 level. As a result, the country’s overall TTDI (Travel and Tourism Development Index) score is 2.1 per cent below its 2019 level. High-income economies in Europe and Asia-Pacific continued to lead the index. “International tourist arrivals and the travel and tourism sector’s contribution to global GDP are expected to return to pre-pandemic levels this year, driven by the lifting of COVID-19-related travel restrictions and strong pent-up demand,” the WEF said. The Middle East had the highest recovery rates in international tourist arrivals (20 per cent above the 2019 level), while Europe, Africa and the Americas all showed a strong recovery of around 90 per cent in 2023. The biennial index analysed the travel and tourism sectors of 119 countries around a range of factors and policies. Germany was ranked 6th, followed by the UK, China, Italy and Switzerland in the top ten. The results highlighted that high-income economies generally continue to have more favourable conditions for travel and tourism development. This was helped by conducive business environments, dynamic labour markets, open travel policies, strong transport and tourism infrastructure, and well-developed natural, cultural and non-leisure attractions.

Unsold Housing Inventory in NCR Down 57%: Report

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Going by a region’s prevailing unsold housing inventory as an indicator of its realty market’s health, North India’s Delhi-NCR – once notorious for speculation-driven oversupply and all-round market disarray – is in significantly better shape than the other regions. Latest ANAROCK data indicates that Delhi-NCR’s unsold inventory declined by a massive 57% in the last five years. The top Southern markets Bengaluru, Hyderabad, and Chennai saw their collective unsold stock shrink by 11% in this period. MMR and Pune in the West saw their cumulative unsold stock reduce by 8%. In the East, Kolkata saw its unsold inventory decline by an impressive 41% in the period. NCR’s unsold stock declined from approx. 2 lakh units at Q1 2018-end to approx. 86,420 units by Q1 2024-end. In the same period, the main southern cities saw their unsold stock decline from over approx. 1.96 lakh units in Q1 2018 to over 1.76 lakh units in Q1 2024. South India’s relatively low decline of unsold inventory is attributable to a massive new launch rate in Hyderabad, most notably over the last two years. The city saw its housing stock almost quadruple in the last 5 years. Bengaluru saw unsold inventory decline by 50% in this period. In the West, MMR and Pune saw unsold stock decline by 8% in the last five years - from approx. 3.13 lakh units in Q1 2018 to approx. 2.90 lakh units in Q1 2024. Santhosh Kumar, Vice Chairman - ANAROCK Group, says, “What really worked for NCR market was developers’ determination to keep new supply addition under control. ANAROCK data indicates that NCR witnessed total new supply of approx. 1.81 lakh units between Q1 2018 to Q1 2024. In contrast, the southern and western markets saw significantly higher new supply additions of approx. 6.07 lakh units and 8.42 lakh units respectively.” “NCR’s upbeat performance also reflects renewed buyer confidence in the region,” says Santhosh Kumar. “RERA, GST and the intervention of AIFs like the SWAMIH fund have played a major role in this sentiment revival. As a result, more leading and listed players have increased supply in the region.”

Of the total unsold inventory in NCR:

Gurgaon currently has the maximum stock of approx. 33,326 units - a 37% decrease in the last five years.
Greater Noida is next with approx. 18,668 units lying unsold as of Q1 2024-end. However, Greater Noida reduced its stock by a whopping 70% since Q1 2018.
Ghaziabad saw its unsold stock decline to approx. 11,011 units in Q1 2024, from approx. 37,005 units in Q1 2018 - a massive 70% 5-year decline.
Noida had approx. 7,451 unsold units by Q1 2024-end, against 25,669 units in same quarter of 2018 - thus declining by 71%.
Delhi, Faridabad & Bhiwadi together had approx. 15,964 unsold units as on Q1 2024-end, from approx. 23,038 units at Q1 2018-end - a 31% decrease.

GDP growth to dip to 6.7% in Q4 from 8.4% in Q3: ICRA

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Even as a slew of projections indicate moderation in India’s GDP growth in the range of 6.3 per cent in the fourth quarter ended 31 March, 2024, from 8.4 per cent recorded in the third quarter this fiscal, ICRA has projected the year-on-year (YoY) expansion of the GDP to moderate to a four-quarter low 6.7 per cent in Q4 FY2024 from 8.4 per cent in Q3 FY2024. Further, the growth in the gross value added (GVA) is estimated to ease to 5.7 per cent in Q4 FY2024 from 6.5 per cent in Q3 FY2024, driven by the industrial easing to plus 7.9 per cent growth from plus 10.4 per cent and services (to plus 6.2 per cent from plus 7.0 per cent sectors. The agricultural GVA is expected to contract for the second straight quarter in Q4 FY2024 by 0.5 per cent at a pace similar to Q3 which was -0.8 per cent amid weak trends in the rabi output (barring wheat) and concerns related to yields. Further, the gap between the GDP and the GVA growth is likely to moderate to 100 basis points (bps) in Q4 FY2024 from the particularly high 185 bps in the previous quarter. This is on account of an expected lower expansion in the net indirect taxes in Q4 owing to a narrower dip in the subsidy outgo to the tune of -22.8 per cent in January-February 2024 and -53.6 per cent in Q3 FY2024. For the full-year FY2024, ICRA expects the GDP and GVA growth to print at 7.8 per cent and 7.0 per cent, respectively, unless the growth for 9M FY2024 is revised. Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA notes that lower volume growth coupled with diminishing gains from commodity prices dampening the profitability of some of the industrial sectors is expected to dampen India’s GVA growth in Q4 FY2024. Nayar, however, is of the view that notwithstanding the overhang of the unfavourable 2023 monsoon rains on agri output, there are some green shoots suggesting that a nascent revival in rural demand may be on the anvil. “The domestic retail tractor volumes reverted to a YoY expansion of 7.7% in Q4 FY2024, after contracting by 4.0 per cent in Q3 FY2024. Moreover, some listed FMCG players pointed to a recovery in the rural economy, particularly in the non-food segment, in Q4 FY2024. This can be partly attributed to the uptick in demand during the marriage season as well as a low base. Additionally, urban consumption is expected to have remained robust, albeit uneven in Q4 FY2024,” added Nayar. The rating agency estimates the industrial GVA growth to record a broad-based moderation to 7.9 per cent in Q4 FY2024 from 10.4 per cent in Q3 FY2024, led by all four sub-sectors, namely, manufacturing (to plus 8.0 per cent from plus 11.6 per cent), electricity (to plus 7.5 per cent from plus 9.0 per cent), construction to plus 8.5 per cent from plus 9.5 per cent and mining/quarrying (to plus 5.5 per cent from plus 7.5 per cent. As per the quarterly results of a relatively small sample of listed manufacturing companies, the profit margins eased slightly in Q4 FY2024 vis-a-vis Q3, partly owing to a narrower deflation in input costs as reflected in the WPI-industrial raw materials of 1.9 per cent in Q4 versus -2.8 per cent in Q3. This, coupled with the lower growth in manufacturing IIP volumes (to plus 4.5 per cent from plus 5.4 per cent), suggests that the yoy growth in manufacturing GVA is likely to have eased in Q4 FY2024, with the adverse base (plus 0.9 per cent in Q4 FY2023 and -4.8 per cent in Q3 FY2023 also likely to weigh on growth. The rating agency estimates the yoy expansion in the services GVA to ease slightly to 6.2 per cent in Q4 FY2024 from 7.0 per cent in Q3 FY2024. The yoy growth in India’s services exports decelerated to 4.2 per cent in Q4 FY2024 from 5.2 per cent in Q3 FY2024. Moreover, the performance of certain indicators saw a deterioration in Q4 FY2024, relative to Q3 FY2024, such as ports cargo traffic (to plus 3.1 per cent from +10.1 per cent), GST e-way bills (to plus 16.3 per cent from +17.1 per cent), ATF consumption (to plus 10.0 per cent from plus 11.0 per cent, domestic airlines’ passenger traffic (to plus 4.4 per cent from plus 9.3 per cent and CV sales (to 3.8 per cent from plus 3.2 per cent. Investment activity was healthy in Q4 FY2024 but some investment-related indicators moderated in Q4 FY2024 vis-à-vis Q3, along with an implicit slowdown in new project proposals in February-March 2024, relative to January 2024.

Household savings rate fell to 6-year low in FY2023: Report

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Indian households have been borrowing at a faster pace than they have been saving since the Covid-19 pandemic as a result of which ‘net’ household financial savings -- gross financial savings adjusted for liabilities -- have fallen. Household savings constitute 60 per cent of the total savings in the economy and bankrolls a large proportion of the country’s investments. Overall household savings rate (net households savings/GDP) fell to a six-year low in fiscal 2023, according to a CRISIL report, citing government data up to fiscal 2023. Interestingly, proxy data suggests a rebound in overall savings rate in fiscal 2024, with contribution from household. The evaluation of the savings profile of households shows such savings constituted 18 per cent of India’s GDP as of fiscal 2023, accounting for 60 per cent of gross domestic savings. A comparison with the long-term trends shows that this share of overall household savings in GDP at 18.4 per cent was below the pre-pandemic decadal average of 20.1 per cent. The share of gross financial savings in GDP was on a par with the average of 11 per cent but financial liabilities at 5.8 per cent of GDP were much above the average of 3.4 per cent. As a result net financial savings at 5.3 per cent of GDP have been below the average of 7.6 per cent. Delving into the reasons why the household savings rate has fallen after the pandemic, CRISIL suggests that the overall household savings started falling as the economy opened after the pandemic abated. Household savings which averaged 20.1 per cent of GDP in the decade before the pandemic, rose briefly to 22.7 per cent in the first year of the pandemic, as lockdown and mobility restrictions curbed consumption. But the excess got spent quickly as the economy reopened. So much so, in fiscal 2022, household savings reverted to the decadal average and then slipped to 18.4 per cent of GDP in fiscal 2023. Within household savings, the NSO bifurcates data into three broad categories -- savings in financial assets, physical assets (primarily real estate) and gold and silver ornaments. While gross financial savings comprise household cash balance, deposits and other financial market instruments, financial liabilities include their borrowings from banks and non-banks. Household savings in physical assets have risen post pandemic. The latest data from NSO, which is for fiscal 2023, shows savings in physical assets were the highest at 12.9 per cent of GDP, followed by net financial assets at 5.3 per cent and gold and silver at 0.2 per cent. Households increasingly added physical assets to their savings after the pandemic, which rose above the pre-pandemic average of 12.2 per cent of GDP after dipping to 10.8 per cent in fiscal 2021. Savings in physical assets galloped at 17.1 per cent on-year growth during fiscals 2021-2023, compared with just 2.2 per cent growth in net financial savings. Savings also rose in gold and silver, though they accounted for a much smaller proportion of overall household savings. Savings in physical assets accounted for 60.1 per cent of total household savings in fiscals 2021-2023, compared with net financial savings at 38.8 per cent. In fiscal 2023, the share of physical assets was higher at 70.2 per cent while net financial savings dropped to 28.5 per cent. This was facilitated by lower home loan rates, positive real returns on real estate investments after a near decade-long stagnation, and stamp duty reductions offered by some states. While bank deposits have traditionally been the preferred investment instrument for households, the share of deposits in gross financial savings reduced after the pandemic as other instruments yielded higher returns. Elevated inflation after the pandemic could have further goaded investors to move to higher-yielding instruments in real terms. Interestingly, households are also preferring to keep more cash with themselves after enduring the pandemic shock. While gross financial savings grew at 10.3 per cent on-year on average between fiscals 2021 and 2023, household financial liabilities rose at the rate of 30.1 per cent. Household financial liabilities, at 5.8 per cent in fiscal 2023, touched a peak after the global financial crisis. they have been rising well since fiscal 2018. This is in sync with trends in retail credit growth, which rose at an average 18.9 per cent between fiscals 2018 and 2023, well ahead of the 10 per cent nominal GDP growth. Among the key push factors for the rise is retail credit push by lenders. Retail credit started surging since fiscal 2018, softened somewhat in 2020 and 2021 and rebounded thereafter, driven by banks and non-banking finance companies (NBFCs). The entry of new players (NBFCs and fintechs) eased credit availability and access. Improving bank balance sheets also contributed to rising supply of credit. While official data beyond fiscal 2023 is awaited from the NSO, early indicators show that household savings may have revived in fiscal 2024 while growth in household liabilities could have likely moderated. First, at the overall economy level, savings could likely have ticked up in fiscal 2024. The estimate is that total domestic savings likely grew stronger in fiscal 2024, compared with 10.7 per cent on-year in the previous fiscal.

84% of Indian small businesses expect robust growth in 2024: Study

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

A recent Certified Practising Accountant (CPA) Australia survey reveals an overwhelming optimism among Indian small businesses, with 84 per cent anticipating continued growth in 2024, significantly surpassing the market average of 70 per cent. Despite global economic uncertainties, 80 per cent of Indian respondents remain confident about the local economy’s prospects for 2024, well above the survey average of 65 per cent. This buoyant outlook has been on an upward trajectory since 2022, highlighting the resilience and dynamism of India’s small business sector. CPA Australia survey showed a rise in the growth rate of Indian small businesses from 73 per cent in 2022 to 77 per cent in 2023--the highest since 2019. Indian small businesses are riding a wave of optimism and growth, according to CPA Australia’s latest annual Asia-Pacific Small Business Survey. The survey reveals that over three-quarters of Indian small businesses reported growth in 2023, surpassing pre-pandemic levels and making India’s small business sector one of the most dynamic and fastest-growing in the Asia-Pacific region. Prafulla Chhajed, a CPA member of CPA Australia in India, emphasized the critical role of Micro, Small, and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) in driving India’s economic success. Chhajed said, “Micro, Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (MSMEs) are making a significant contribution to India’s economic success. Not only is India’s rapid economic growth and improving business environment boosting their confidence, support from the government ranging from digitalisation to access to funds, is assisting businesses to recover from the pandemic.” He further said, “India’s small businesses are enthusiastically improving their performance through innovation, adopting technologies, and building connections with overseas markets. ‘Good staff’ was nominated as the top positive factor that benefited India small business performance in 2023. It explains why Indian respondents have been so willing to add new employees over the past two years”. “This year the pace in jobs creation by small businesses is expected to slow, although remain high in comparison to other markets. This is most likely due to a combination of factors including increasing levels of automation and rising labour costs,” he added. However, Chhajed cautioned that the pace of job creation might slow down due to rising automation and labor costs, though it will still remain high compared to other markets. The survey highlighted several challenges faced by Indian small businesses, including increasing costs, competition, and cashflow difficulties. Staff and material costs were particularly detrimental in 2023, rising slightly from the previous year. To cope with these expenses and support growth, 68 per cent of small businesses sought external funding last year, though this figure dropped 20 percentage points from 2022. This year, 81 per cent plan to seek finance, despite tougher financing conditions. Only 42 per cent of respondents found it easy to secure funds in 2023, a sharp decline from 69 per cent in 2022. This trend is expected to continue, with just 43 per cent anticipating ease in accessing funds this year, down from 64 per cent previously. “Difficulty in accessing finance is a common challenge for small businesses worldwide. Though government loans like Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana (PMMY) helps to foster entrepreneurship by offering financial support, MSMEs should not solely rely on borrowing to fund their long-term development, particularly in a high-interest rate environment”, Chhajed explained. A significant number of Indian small businesses focused on managing costs and cash flow last year. Among the technologies they invested in, accounting software was particularly popular, with 23 per cent adoption. Professional advice was also sought frequently, with 34 per cent consulting accountants and 38 per cent seeking advice from friends and family. “Indian MSMEs are very competitive in many areas such as digitalisation and innovation, now they should focus on cost management and cashflow to increase their financial return. It’s wise to use accounting software to control cost and analyse financial performance regularly. Further, financial experts like qualified accountants may provide professional advice to small businesses to manage technical issues like taxation and improve financial performance”, Chhajed suggested. Indian small businesses also show a strong inclination towards innovation and global expansion. Leading the 11 surveyed markets, 34 per cent of respondents expect substantial revenue growth from overseas markets this year, significantly higher than the survey average of 19 per cent. Additionally, 44 per cent plan to introduce new products or services, compared to the market average of 29 per cent. Chhajed said, “The Indian government has established good platforms to bolster our MSMEs’ global expansion, for example, international trade fairs for MSMEs. He added, “They could leverage these opportunities to connect with overseas customers and promote their novel products globally. Besides, our thriving digital economy also fosters MSMEs’ innovation and revolution in the digital era.” The survey gathered insights from 4,222 small businesses across 11 Asia-Pacific markets, including 505 respondents from India, providing a comprehensive overview of the region’s small business landscape.

8 of 10 business leaders globally adopting AI for growth: Study

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

More than eight out of 10 senior business leaders have already deployed artificial intelligence (AI) to enhance existing revenue streams or create new ones, a new study by Tata Consultancy Services, a global leader in IT services, found recently. The ‘TCS AI for Business Study’, a report on the state of AI adoption and its impact on businesses, also found that 69 per cent of businesses are more focused on using AI to spur innovation and increase revenue than on productivity improvement and cost optimization. The study found that executives are generally positive about the impact of AI, with 57 per cent reporting excitement or optimism about the potential impact of AI on businesses. Among respondents in the study, 45 per cent expect up to half their employees will need to use generative AI capabilities to do their job in three years’ time -- and another 41 per cent think even more will do so. Most, at 65 per cent, believe AI will augment and enhance human capabilities, enabling people to focus on higher-value activities that require creativity and strategic thinking. Harrick Vin, Chief Technology Officer, TCS, said, “2023 was a year of exuberance, with every enterprise experimenting with AI/GenAI use cases.” Enterprises are realizing that the path to production for AI solutions is not easy, and that building an AI-mature enterprise is a marathon, not a sprint, said the CTO. The survey also highlights the need for businesses to take a strategic approach to AI adoption and develop the right performance indicators to measure the impact of the technology on their businesses. TCS itself was one of the first organisations in the industry to bring together the capabilities of cloud computing and artificial intelligence under the AI.Cloud unit to cater to the emerging needs of customers. TCS surveyed nearly 1,300 CEOs and other senior executives with profit and loss responsibilities, across 12 industries and 24 countries. About half the companies had USD 1 billion to USD 5 billion in annual revenue and the other half had over USD 5 billion in revenue. During the study, it was found that 65 per cent of senior executives say their competitive advantage will still come from humans -- with their creativity, intuition, and strategic thinking unleashed by AI’s augment and assist capabilities.

World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The global economic outlook has improved since January, with major economies avoiding a severe downturn, according to World Economic Situation and Prospects as of mid-2024, released by the UN. The world economy is now projected to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024, instead of 2.4 per cent forecasted earlier, on the back of better-than-expected performance of the United States economy and some improvement in the outlook for several large emerging economies. The modest gain in the growth momentum is partly offset by the downward revisions of the growth outlook for the European Union, Africa, and Western Asia. On balance, the near-term economic outlook is only cautiously optimistic as economic vulnerabilities remain, amid persistently high interest rates, continuing geopolitical tensions, and increasing climate risks. The world economy is also grappling with challenges to accelerate the transition to net zero emissions. Technological breakthroughs – especially in renewables and batteries, requiring extraction, processing and use of critical minerals – has opened up new opportunities for boosting economic growth and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals, especially in mineral-rich developing economies. Taking advantage of such opportunities and avoiding a renewed “resource curse” will require sound national policies and effective implementation capacities. These countries cannot do it alone. An enabling international environment and stronger international cooperation will be essential to harness the potential of critical mineral resources and accelerate progress towards sustainable development. Global overview The global economic outlook has improved since the previous forecast released in January 2024. Despite the most aggressive monetary tightening in decades, a scenario of hard landing of the United States economy has largely receded. Most major economies have managed to bring down inflation without increasing unemployment and triggering a recession. However, the outlook is only cautiously optimistic as higher-for-longer interest rates, debt difficulties, and escalating geopolitical risks will continue to challenge stable and sustained economic growth. Ever-worsening climate shocks continue to pose additional challenges to the global economic outlook, threatening decades of development gains, especially for least developed countries and small islands developing States. The breakneck pace of technological change – including in machine learning and artificial intelligence – presents new opportunities and risks to the global economy, promising to boost productivity and advance knowledge on the one hand, while exacerbating technological divides and reshaping labor markets on the other. The world economy is now forecast to grow by 2.7 per cent in 2024 (an increase of 0.3 percentage points from the forecast in January) and 2.8 per cent in 2025 (an increase of 0.1 percentage points). The upward revisions mainly reflect improved prospects in the United States of America and several large developing economies, notably India and Brazil. However, the economic outlook for many African countries has deteriorated since the last release. On average, global growth in the coming years is expected to remain below the average of 3.2 per cent during 2010-2019. Recent high-frequency data indicate improving trade performance since the last quarter of 2023. In February, the global Purchasing Managers’ Index moved to the expansionary zone for the first time since August 2022. Monetary and fiscal policies: trends and challenges Monetary policy In the first quarter of 2024, the majority of central banks maintained their policy rates unchanged, closely watching the policy decisions of the United States Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank. Despite expectations for both central banks to pivot to interest rate cuts in the second half of the year, the timing and magnitude of monetary easing remain uncertain as inflation remains above the central bank targets. Government bond yields in the United States and the euro area trended upward recently as quantitative tightening measures increased bond supplies to the markets. The central banks that peg their currencies to the United States dollar are expected to closely follow the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions. The European Central Bank’s policy shift will affect the Central African Economic and Monetary Community and the West African Economic and Monetary Union. Deviating from the predominant “wait and see” monetary policy stances, central banks in Armenia, Azerbaijan, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Czechia, Georgia, Hungary, Kazakhstan, Paraguay, Peru, Republic of Moldova, Sri Lanka, Tajikistan, and Ukraine implemented additional rate cuts in the first quarter of 2024 after initiating monetary easing in 2023. In addition, central banks in Argentina, Ghana, Israel, Mexico, Mongolia, Mozambique, and Switzerland pivoted to the easing phase during the first quarter of 2024. After lowering the five-year loan prime rate and the reserve requirement ratio in the first quarter of 2024, the People’s Bank of China is expected to maintain an accommodative stance. In contrast, central banks in Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Malawi, Nigeria, Tanzania, Turkey, Uganda, Venezuela (Bolivarian Republic of), and Zambia continued monetary tightening with additional policy interest rate hikes during the first quarter of 2024. Tight external financing conditions and balance-of-payments constraints increased depreciation pressures, prompting central banks to tighten monetary policy to defend the value of the national currencies. The Bank of Japan has signaled the possibility of further interest rate hikes after abandoning the negative policy rate regime in March 2024 to stabilize the Japanese yen, which has constantly been under pressure during the past year. Fiscal policy The COVID-19 pandemic and global energy and food crises stretched the limits of public finances across all country groups, exacerbating fiscal pressures and debt challenges in many economies. In the aftermath of these shocks, high levels of public debt, rising interest costs and subdued economic growth constrained fiscal space. At the same time, public spending pressures continued to increase. Aging populations are pushing up pension, healthcare, and long-term care costs, while governments are facing growing demands to increase policy support for high-tech industries, climate adaptation, and green energy transition. In addition, ongoing military conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, and rising geopolitical tensions worldwide, have prompted many countries to increase defense spending. This trend is likely to continue, and may even accelerate, in the coming years, potentially crowding out public investments in sustainable development. The general government debt-to-GDP ratio globally stood at an estimated 94.4 per cent in 2023. While this rate is slightly below the 2020 peak, it is 11 percentage points above the pre-pandemic level in 2019 and 35 percentage points higher than before the global financial crisis in 2007. With interest rates expected to stay higher for longer, especially in the United States, the costs of servicing government debt will remain a challenge, absorbing a growing share of fiscal revenues in many developing countries and diverting public funds away from health, education, social protection, and sustainable infrastructure. In 2024, governments in Africa are projected to spend on average more than a quarter of total public revenues on interest payments. Debt service burdens are particularly high in several large economies, most notably Angola, Egypt, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, South Africa, and Zambia. Interest payments are also projected to further increase from an already high level in the SIDS, reaching 15.9 per cent of revenues in 2024. By contrast, the share of interest expenditures in government revenues remains low in most developed economies and economies in transition, except for the United States, where net interest costs are estimated to reach about 10 per cent of government revenues in 2024. Against this backdrop, most countries are projected to gradually tighten fiscal outlays in 2024-25 to improve debt sustainability and rebuild fiscal buffers. In 2024, 31 out of 37 developed economies are projected to see an increase in the general government cyclically adjusted primary balance, implying a tightening of the fiscal stance. In the United States, fiscal policy is expected to be roughly neutral over the next few years, after providing moderate support to growth in 2023. The European Union recently adopted reform of the fiscal governance framework, aiming to provide more flexibility in reducing deficits and giving more ownership to member States. Many developing country governments are pursuing gradual fiscal consolidation after phasing out support measures to fight the pandemic and the cost-of-living crisis. In Africa, governments are generally aiming to maintain a tight fiscal stance as countries are struggling with large public debt burdens and large fiscal deficits, ranging from an estimated 4.6 per cent of GDP in Egypt to 6.4 per cent in South Africa and 8.6 per cent in Algeria. In China, the government is expected to maintain a proactive fiscal policy to support economic growth in 2024, including significant new spending on science and technology, new infrastructure, and low-carbon transition. India’s government remains committed to gradually reduce the fiscal deficit, while seeking to increase capital investment. In Latin America and the Caribbean, most countries have also embarked on fiscal consolidation, aiming to improve debt sustainability through better-targeted and more efficient spending.

US TOPS IN OUTFLOW REMITTANCES @ $81.6 billion

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Remittances are financial or in-kind transfers made by migrants directly to families or communities in their countries of origin. The World Bank compiles global data on international remittances, notwithstanding the myriad data gaps, definitional differences and methodological challenges in compiling accurate statistics. Its data, however, do not capture unrecorded flows through formal or informal channels, and the actual magnitudes of global remittances are therefore likely to be larger than available estimates. This issue came to the fore during the pandemic, following a much more positive outcome in 2020 for international remittance flows, contrary to initial dire projections; this was due in part to a shift from informal channels to formal channels in response to COVID-19 immobility restrictions, among other reasons.25 Despite these issues, available data reflect a long‑term increasing trend in international remittances in recent years, rising from around USD 128 billion in 2000 to USD 831 billion in 2022. International remittances have recovered from the dip in 2020 due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Migrants sent an estimated USD 831 billion in international remittances globally in 2022, an increase from USD 791 billion in 2021 and significantly more than USD 717 billion in 2020. As in previous years, low- and middle-income countries continued to receive vast sums of remittance inflows, which increased by 8 per cent between 2021 and 2022 from USD 599 billion to USD 647 billion. Since the mid-1990s, international remittances have greatly surpassed official development assistance levels defined as government aid designed to promote the economic development and welfare of developing countries; they have also recently overtaken foreign direct investment. In 2022, India, Mexico, China, the Philippines and France were (in descending order) the top five remittance recipient countries, although India was well above the rest, receiving more than USD 111 billion, the first country to reach and even surpass the USD 100 billion mark. Mexico was the second-largest remittance recipient in 2022, a position it also held in 2021 after overtaking China, which historically had been the second-biggest recipient after India. G7 countries France and Germany remained in the top 10 of receiving countries globally in 2022, just as they have done for more than a decade (see Table 2). It should be noted, however, that the majority of inflows are not household transfers, but relate to salaries of cross-border workers who work in Switzerland while residing in France or Germany. High-income countries are almost always the main source of international remittances. For decades, the United States of America has consistently been the top remittance-sending country in the world, with a total outflow of USD 79.15 billion in 2022, followed by Saudi Arabia (USD 39.35 billion), Switzerland (USD 31.91 billion) and Germany (USD 25.60 billion). The United Arab Emirates is also usually among the top 10 sending countries globally, but its data are not included/reported in the June 2022 World Bank data release. In addition to its role as a top recipient, China (classified as an upper-middle-income country by the World Bank) has also been a significant source of international remittances, with USD 18.26 billion reported in 2022, although this is a drop from USD 23 billion in 2021. In terms of dependency on international remittances, there is no consensus on how “overreliance” on international remittances can be defined, but dependency on remittances is mostly measured as the ratio of remittances to gross domestic product (GDP). The top five remittance-receiving countries by share of GDP in 2022 were Tajikistan (51%) followed by Tonga (44%), Lebanon (36%), Samoa (34%) and Kyrgyztan (31%) (see Figure 11). Heavy reliance on remittances can cultivate a culture of dependency in the receiving country, potentially lowering labour force participation and slowing economic growth.30 Too much dependence on remittances also makes an economy more vulnerable to sudden changes in remittance receipts or exchange rate fluctuations. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 10.C commits countries to reducing the transaction costs of migrant remittances to less than 3 per cent.32 The 3 per cent transaction cost is intended as the global average of sending USD 200. While the cost of sending remittances has gradually declined over the last few years across several regions (see Figure 12), it still remains high and far above the SDG 10 target. In 2022, average costs were lowest in South Asia (4.6%), followed by East Asia and Pacific, and Latin America and the Caribbean (both around 5.8%). Sub-Saharan Africa has consistently had the highest average cost of sending remittances and in 2022 the cost was at more than 8 per cent, more than double the SDG target.

Unemployment rate dips to 6.7% in March quarter: survey

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above in urban areas declined to 6.7 per cent in the January-March period from 6.8 per cent a year ago, according to the National Sample Survey Survey (NSSO). Joblessness, or unemployment rate, is defined as the percentage of unemployed people in the labour force. The unemployment rate in the March quarter of FY23 was 6.8 per cent, while it was 6.6 per cent in April-June as well as in the third quarter (July-September 2023) of the previous fiscal. It was 6.5 per cent in October-December 2023. The unemployment rate for people aged 15 years and above in January-March 2024 was 6.7 per cent in urban areas, the 22nd Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) showed. It also showed that the unemployment rate among females (aged 15 years and above) in urban areas declined to 8.5 per cent in January-March 2024 from 9.2 per cent in the same quarter a year ago. It was 9.1 per cent in April-June 2023, 8.6 per cent in July-September 2023, and 8.6 per cent in October-December 2023. Among males, the unemployment rate in urban areas rose to 6.1 per cent in January-March 2024 compared to 6 per cent in the year-ago period. It was 5.9 per cent in April-June 2023, 6 per cent in July-September 2023, and 5.8 per cent in October-December 2023. Labour force participation rate in Current Weekly Status (CWS) in urban areas for people aged 15 years and above increased to 50.2 per cent in the January-March 2024, from 48.5 per cent in the same period a year ago. It was 48.8 per cent in April-June 2023, 49.3 per cent in July-September 2023 and 49.2 per cent in October-December 2023. Labour force refers to the part of the population, which supplies or offers to supply labour for pursuing economic activities for the production of goods and services and, therefore, includes both employed and unemployed persons. The NSSO launched PLFS in April 2017. On the basis of PLFS, a quarterly bulletin is brought out giving estimates of labour force indicators namely unemployment rate, worker population ratio (WPR), labour force participation rate (LFPR), distribution of workers by broad status in employment and industry of work in CWS. The estimates of unemployed persons in CWS give an average picture of unemployment in a short span of seven days during the survey period. In the CWS approach, a person is considered unemployed if he/she did not work even for one hour on any day during the week but sought or was available for work at least for one hour on any day during the period. Labour force, according to CWS, is the number of persons either employed or unemployed on average in a week preceding the date of the survey. LFPR is defined as the percentage of the population in the labour force.

Driven by fuel and power, WPI inflation up 1.26% in April

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India’s inflation based on wholesale price index (WPI) in April increased at a positive rate of 1.26 per cent year on year, when it was 0.8% in April 2023, driven by fuel and power, WPI-food (primary food + manufactured food) and core-WPI (manufactured non-food products) groups, rising to a 13 month high, pushed by increase in prices of food articles, electricity, crude petroleum and natural gas, manufacture of food products, other manufacturing etc. The April WPI rose from 0.5 per cent in March 2024. The month over month change in WPI index for the month of April 2024 stood at 0.79 per cent as compared to March 2024, provisional data released by the Commerce Ministry showed on Tuesday. The WPI inflation eased marginally to 0.2 per cent in February 2024 from 0.3 per cent in January 2024, partly led by the decline in the inflation for minerals as well as the wider YoY deflation in core-WPI and fuel and power in Feb 2024 vs. Jan 2024. Rating agency ICRA had forecast that WPI inflation will rise in March 2024, crossing the 1.0 per cent mark after a gap of 11 months, amid the ongoing uptick in international prices of crude oil and other commodities, as well as an unfavourable base (+1.4 per cent in March 2023. The food Index consisting of ‘food articles’ from primary articles group and ‘food product’ from manufactured products group have increased from 180.1 in March, 2024 to 183.6 in April, 2024. The rate of inflation based on WPI food index increased from 4.65 per cent in March 2024 to 5.52 per cent in April, 2024. The index for primary articles, a major group, increased by 1.97 per cent to 186.7 in April, 2024 from 183.1 for the month of March, 2024. Prices of crude petroleum and natural gas increased 3.56 per cent and that of food articles increased 2.67 per cent as compared to March, 2024. Prices of non-food articles fell 1.19 per cent and minerals fell by 1.55 per cent in April, 2024 as compared to March, 2024. The index for fuel and power declined by 0.26 per cent to 154.8 in April, 2024 from 155.2 in March, 2024. Prices of mineral oils rose 0.06 per cent in April, 2024 as compared to March, 2024. Prices of electricity decreased 1.20 per cent in April, 2024 as compared to March, 2024. Index for another major group, manufactured products increased by 0.50 per cent to 140.8 in April, 2024 from 140.1 for the month of March, 2024. Some of the important groups that showed month-over-month increase in prices are basic metals, other manufacturing, textiles, food products, chemical and chemical products, etc. Some of the groups that witnessed a decrease in prices are other non-metallic mineral products, paper and paper products, motor vehicles, trailers and semi-trailers, furniture and leather and related products in April, 2024 as compared to March, 2024. According to ICRA, the yoy WPI inflation hardened to 1.3 per cent in April 2024 contrasting with the slight easing in the CPI inflation in April 2024 vis-à-vis March 2024, thereby leading to a narrowing of the wedge between the WPI and CPI inflation. Going forward, ICRA projects the WPI inflation to harden further to 2.0-3.0 per cent in May 2024 compared to 3.6 per cent in May 2023) owing to an adverse base effect for crude oil and food items.

Retail inflation eases to an 11-month low of 4.83% in April

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Retail inflation eased to an 11-month low of 4.83 per cent in April as prices of some kitchen items declined though overall food basket firmed up marginally, according to a government data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI)-based retail inflation was 4.85 per cent in March. It was 4.7 per cent in April 2023. The previous low inflation was at 4.31 per cent in May 2023. The inflation in the food basket was at 8.70 per cent in April, marginally up from 8.52 per cent in March, according to data released by the National Statistical Office (NSO). Inflation in egg, meat, spices, and ‘cereals and products’ was lower in April, while fruits, vegetables, and pulses were expensive. The index for ‘fuel and light’ in the CPI declined to 4.24 per cent in April on a yearly basis. The government has tasked the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to ensure inflation remains at 4 per cent, with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. According to the RBI, which factors in consumer inflation while arriving at its bi-monthly monetary policy, food price uncertainties continue to weigh on the inflation trajectory going forward. The central bank has projected the CPI inflation for 2024-25 at 4.5 per cent with the first quarter at 4.9 per cent; second at 3.8 per cent; third at 4.6 per cent; and the forth at 4.5 per cent. The NSO data further revealed that inflation in urban areas was lower than the national average of 4.11 per cent and higher in rural India at 5.43 per cent. The highest inflation was witnessed in Odisha at 7.11 per cent and lower in Delhi at 2.17 per cent. States recording higher inflation than the national average were Andhra Pradesh, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu, Telangana, Uttar Pradesh, Assam, Bihar, Chhattisgarh, Haryana, Karnataka, Kerala, and Madhya Pradesh. Commenting on the CPI data, ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nayar said the moderation in inflation was led by a larger deflation in fuel and light segments, and softer prints for the clothing and footwear, and pan, tobacco and intoxicants groups. Inflation in the vegetables and pulses categories remained in double-digits for the sixth and eleventh consecutive month, respectively, thereby contributing to the elevated food and beverages print, she added. “The impending favourable base effects during Q2 FY25 are expected to materially soften the headline inflation print to 2-4 per cent in July 2024 and August 2024. Nevertheless, a timely onset and good distribution of monsoon would be crucial to support agriculture output in 2024-25 and help control food inflation,” Nayar said. CRISIL Chief Economist Dharmakirti Joshi said the mild easing of the headline number in April is encouraging, but acceleration of this downtrend is what matters, especially since recent swings have been worrying. “Our base case is that the upcoming monsoon can offer respite, assuming they are well distributed in terms of time and geography. Fuel and light, with a 6.8 per cent weight in the CPI gauge, has been reducing the pressure on the headline for eight months led by retail fuel price relaxations by the government,” he said. But if crude oil prices rise substantially and stay elevated in wake of geopolitical stress, the gains to inflation could be reversed, Joshi said. ‘ With continued uncertainty, especially on the risks to the food inflation trajectory after the September quarter of FY25, the chance of a stance change in the upcoming June monetary policy review by the RBI appears rather dim, she said. NSO collects the the price data from selected 1,114 urban markets and 1,181 villages covering all states/UTs on a weekly roster.

Number of international students rises over years: Report

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The number of internationally mobile students globally has significantly increased over the last two decades, as highlighted by data collected by UNESCO.33 In 2001, this number was at just over 2.2 million. A decade later, the number of internationally mobile students had grown to more than 3.8 million. This number continued to increase in the following years, rising to over 6 million in 2021, nearly triple the figure 20 years prior. Despite the COVID-19 pandemic and related mobility restrictions, the number of internationally mobile students remained strong. Between 2020 and 2021 – at the height of the pandemic – the number of internationally mobile students increased slightly (from 6.38 million to 6.39 million), defying expectations. Historically, the population of internationally mobile students has been gendered, with male students consistently outnumbering female students. In 2001, there were around 1 million internationally mobile female students (45% of the total) and 1.2 million male students (54%). While this gap has narrowed over the last 20 years, the number of internationally mobile female students remains lower than that of male students. In 2021, around 3 million internationally mobile students were female (47%) and males comprised around 3.4 million (52%). Countries in Asia are the origins of the largest number of internationally mobile students in the world. In 2021, more than 1 million internationally mobile students were from China, by far the highest number globally and more than double the number of students from India, which ranks second (around 508,000). Other significant origin countries include Viet Nam, Germany and Uzbekistan (around 100,000 each), although their numbers are far fewer than the top two origin countries. The United States is the largest destination country for internationally mobile students in the world (more than 833,000). The United States is followed by the United Kingdom (nearly 601,000), Australia (around 378,000), Germany (over 376,000) and Canada (nearly 318,000). The world’s two most populous nations, China and India, have the highest numbers of students studying overseas. According to data published by UNESCO, more than one million Chinese students were studying abroad in 2021. India’s total was close to half of this, with around 508,000 students living in other countries. Following some way behind come Vietnam, Germany and Uzbekistan. The United States was the largest destination country for students studying abroad with over 833,000 there in 2021. It was followed by the United Kingdom (nearly 601,000), Australia (around 378,000), Germany (over 376,000) and Canada (nearly 318,000). This data was published as part of the International Organization for Migration’s (IOM) 2024 World Migration Report, which provides an overview of the global state of migration using the latest available data, published Tuesday. This ranges from data on asylum seekers fleeing war to economic migrants seeking labor opportunities, and as this chart shows, to students living abroad. According to the report, the total number of internationally mobile students has been on the rise over the last two decades. UNESCO data reveals that where 2.2 million students were studying abroad in 2001, that figure had climbed to 6.39 million students in 2021.

Luxury House sales gain, affordable segment bleeds: Report

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Indian residential property sector surged relentlessly on in Q1 2024 in terms of both sales and new launches, but the gains are increasingly uneven across budget segments. Latest ANAROCK data comparing luxury and affordable housing sales share shows luxury gaining markedly while affordable housing continues bleed. Of approx. 1,30,170 units sold across the top 7 cities in Q1 2024, the share of luxury homes priced >INR 1.5 Cr was 21%, or approx. 27,070 units. This contrasts sharply with the trend of five years ago. In Q1 2019, affordable housing was at its peak, holding a share of 37% out of approx. 78,525 units sold across the top 7 cities. Luxury housing had a mere 4% share. “Around 26,545 affordable housing units were sold in Q1 2024, accounting for an overall sales share of 20% in the top 7 cities,” says Anuj Puri, Chairman - ANAROCK Group. “The mid-range and premium housing segment continued to rule the roost with approx. 76,555 units sold in the period – a near-59% overall sales share. Affordable housing is nowhere near to recouping its stellar sales share in 2019.” In terms of regions, there are interesting variations. City-wise data indicates that of approx. 15,645 units sold in NCR in Q1 2024, the highest sales - approx. 6,060 units or a 39% share – were in the luxury segment (units priced >INR 1.5 Cr). On the other hand, of approx. 5,650 units sold in Kolkata in the same period, affordable housing saw the highest sales of approx. 2,765 units, or a 49% share. While Kolkata continues to have similar trends as in Q1 2019, NCR saw a major trend reversal in this five-year period – from affordable segment having the lion’s share in Q1 2019 to it slipping to the lowest in Q1 2024. Bengaluru, MMR, Chennai, Pune, and Hyderabad, on the other hand, saw their highest sales in the mid-range and premium housing segments (priced between INR 40 lakh and INR 1.5 Cr) in Q1 2024. “As luxury homes gain more traction in both new supply and sales, affordable housing continues its retreat to the sidelines. The luxury segment is driven by a mounting appetite for bigger homes by branded developers in superior locations,” says Puri. “Affordable housing, on the other hand, is driven primarily by lower ticket sizes. The downward spiral of this erstwhile posterchild of the Indian housing industry began during the pandemic, and then morphed into a broader malaise. Even as the nation awaits the results of the ongoing general elections, any affordable housing revival will hinge on further government sops and incentives for buyers and developers.” Of approx. 1,10,860 units launched in Q1 2024 across the top 7 cities, approx. 28,020 units (or 25%) were luxury homes and just 19,980 units (18%) were in the affordable segment. Five years ago, in Q1 2019, out of approx. 70,480 units launched across the top 7 cities, affordable housing comprised a whopping 44% share while luxury had mere 9% share. It is little wonder that developers are aligning supply with the prevailing demand and are launching more luxury housing projects now. Affordable vs Luxury – 5-year Trends If we consider the past five-year data trends, the new supply and sales share of luxury homes has been rising steadily. In pre-Covid 2019, luxury homes accounted for approx. 11% of the overall new supply in top 7 cities. In Q1 2024, this share has gone up to a whopping 25%. 2019 saw only approx. 25,770 units launched in the luxury segment in the entire year; currently in Q1 2024, 28,020 luxury homes were launched in just this one quarter. Affordable housing, however, has seen a major trend reversal. This segment has seen its new supply share shrink considerably over the last five years. In 2019, the new supply share of affordable homes stood at 40% out of the overall new supply additions (approx. 2.37 lakh units) in the top 7 cities. However, in Q1 2024, data indicates that its supply share has dropped to a mere 18% of the total new launches.

Personal health insurance cost in the last 12 months: Study

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The recent move of the Insurance Regulatory and Development Authority of India (IRDAI), the insurance regulator, to help senior citizens and those with pre-morbid conditions is expected to make health insurance premiums go up by 10-15%, according to reports quoting experts. From 1April 2024, IRDA has updated the definitions of the pre-existing condition and moratorium period (MP) in health insurance policies. While the waiting period forpre-existing disease (PED) coverage in health insurance policies has been reduced from four years to a compulsory three years, the moratorium period has beenshortened from 96 to 60 months. Insurance companies enforce a “no look back” policy during this period. The move comes at a time when consumers are struggling to get their health claims processed. Almost one-third or 1.6 lakh cases out of total 5.5 lakh pendingconsumer complaints received by the department of consumer affairs are of the insurance sector, participants at a roundtable on Consumers and the InsuranceSector, organised last year, were told. In the latest LocalCircles survey, 43% citizens who filed a health insurance claim in the last three years explicitly indicated that they had difficulty in getting it processed. Complaints ranged from outright rejection to exclusions to deduction and most commonly,delays. The situation is so bad that in many cases, patients spend 8-12 hours on their last day after being ready for discharge to actually get discharged as theyare waiting on the insurance claim to be processed. Doctors and hospitals owners are a frustrated lot as well as the patient is occupying a room which can beused to admit and treat another waiting patient. With hundreds of health insurance policy holders raising concerns about rising health insurance premiums, LocalCircles, a community social media platform through a new survey attempted to understand how much their premiums have increased by in the last 12 months. The survey received over 11,000 responses from personal health insurance policyholders located in 324 districts of India. 67% respondents were men while 33% respondents were women. 39% of respondents were from tier 1 locations, 30%were from tier 2 locations while 31% were from tier 3, 4 and rural locations. The survey asked owners of personal health insurance policies, “How much has your annual health insurance premium increased in the last 12 months?” Out ofthe 11,000 health insurance policy owners who responded, 52% indicated that their premium has increased by over 25% in the last 12 months. In fact, 21% ofhealth insurance policy owners indicated that the increase in premium was 50% or more in the last 12 months while 31% indicated that it has risen by 25-50%. Ofthe remaining respondents, 31% indicated an increase of 10-25%; while 2% indicated 0-10% increase in premium rates; 15% denied any increase in premium A comparative study with the survey results of 2022 shows that the personal health insurance policy owners who had seen an increase in their premium by over25% has dipped from 62% in 2022 to 52% this year. 2022 was an year marked with heavy increases in health insurance premiums as many insurance companieswere projecting another wave of COVID in 2022-23 and had increased premiums in anticipation. In summary, personal health insurance policy holders are deeply concerned with a significant rise in premium in 2024 after already experiencing high double digitincreases in the last 2 years. While on the premium front, the insurance companies want a hefty increase each year, the claims processing continues to beinefficient with 1 in 2 who files a health insurance claim struggling. It is time IRDAI steps in to rationalize the increase in premiums along with processing of claimsso health insurance becomes citizen centric. The study received 11,000 responses health insurance policy holders located in 324 districts of India. 67% respondents were men while 33% respondents w erewomen. 39% of respondents were from tier 1 locations, 30% were from tier 2 locations while 31% were from tier 3, 4 and rural locations. The survey wasconducted via LocalCircles platform, and all participants were validated citizens who had to be registered with LocalCircles to participate in this survey.

Auto Retail sales grow 27% in April

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Amid favourable market sentiment driven by stable fuel prices, positive monsoon outlook, festive demand and the marriage season, the Indian auto retail sector achieved a robust 27 per cent year-on-year growth in April 2024, even as the industry remains cautiously optimistic due to rising interest in new models, election-related uncertainty and financial challenges which are now crucial to navigate the evolving market, says the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) on Wednesday. The FADA vehicle retail data for April 2024 shows that on a yoy basis, retail sales of passenger vehicles grew 16 per cent, two-wheelers (2W) were up by 33 per cent, three-wheelers (3W) increased by 9 per cent, tractors grew by 1 per cent and commercial vehicles experienced a modest 2 per cent growth. “The combined March-April period shows 14 per cent yoy,” says FADA President Manish Raj Singhania. “While some attribute this growth to the shift in Navratri to April instead of March last year, the overall increase was significant,” adds Singhania. The FADA outlook for May 2024 is shaped by several positive indicators. Improved vehicle supply and strategic planning in the 2W segment have led to rising customer bookings and better market sentiment, driven by favourable crop yields. In the PV segment, new model launches and favourable monsoon forecasts are set to stimulate customer interest, while bulk deals in CV segment should bolster demand in sectors like iron ore, steel, and cement. According to Nomura, vehicle registration (according to Vahan) is up sharply in April with 2Ws up 33 per cent y-y and PVs up 17 per cent y-y, benefiting from Navratra and a higher number of marriage dates as highlighted earlier. In EVs, 2W EV retail sales share declined m-m to 4 per cent (from 9 per cent in March ‘24) at 63000 units, -6.4 per cent yoy, due to the pull forward of demand in March 2024 as subsidy was reduced in April. Ola’s market share increased to 52 per cent from 37 per cent in March ‘24) while Ather/TVS saw 600 basis point decline m-m each. The auto industry, according to FADA, faces various challenges ranging from limited financing options, overcapacity and extreme summer season. The overcapacity in the CV segment and rising temperatures could further slow growth, warns FADA. Election uncertainty continues to affect market sentiment, delaying customer conversions and stalling purchasing decisions. The industry thus remains cautiously optimistic about its near-term outlook. Market opportunities exist with rising customer interest in new models. However, election-related uncertainty and financial constraints remain key challenges that the industry will need to monitor closely to navigate this evolving landscape effectively. The apex body representing the interests of India’s auto retail sector, has teamed up with Frost & Sullivan to spearhead an ambitious customer experience index (CEI), a quantitative research to assess customer satisfaction and customer experience. The survey looks to understand and quantify customer satisfaction focusing on their journey in sales, after sales service and product quality in the passenger vehicle category, to assess key drivers of satisfaction and quantum of their contribution to the satisfaction and to determine the key barriers of satisfaction and identify the areas of improvement. The comprehensive study will target passenger vehicle category, including hatchbacks, sedans, SUVs/MPVs, EVs and luxury vehicles, utilising a detailed questionnaire to capture insights from 8,000 participants across 26 cities. This includes seven metropolitan areas, 16 tier-2 cities and three tier-3 locations, ensuring a broad and inclusive data set that spans the diverse Indian landscape. The results, which will provide invaluable insights for the entire automotive ecosystem, are expected in September 2024. The respondent’s profile includes males and females aged 18 years onwards, who are key purchase decision makers for the primary vehicle and must be a primary user (only personal usage) of a personally owned vehicle. The other criteria is that primary vehicle must be ‘new’ when purchased (exclude, preowned, leased, rented) and purchased from an authorized dealer. The initiative comes at a critical juncture, poised for significant growth amidst changing consumer behaviours and technological innovation, says Vinkesh Gulati, Chairman of FADA’s Research & Academy. The survey is designed to systematically harness customer feedback across a wide demographic, something that has not been undertaken at this scale in our industry before. By integrating detailed assessments of sales, after-sales and product quality experiences from various vehicle categories, FADA aims to provide OEMs and dealers with the insights necessary to elevate their service standards and product offerings.

Toy imports down from $304 mn in FY19 to $65 mn in FY24

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The introduction of higher import duties and the Quality Control Order (QCO) has significantly impacted the toy trade in India with imports falling drastically from USD 304.1 million in FY2019 to USD 64.9 million in FY2024. Decisive steps -- which include raising import duties -- to curb the inflow of substandard toy imports by the Indian Government since 2020, especially from China, while simultaneously strengthening the domestic toy industry, as per a latest insight from Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). The steepest decline occurred between FY2020 and FY2022, demonstrating the direct impact of the new regulations. Imports dropped from USD 279.3 million in FY2020 to USD 35.9 million by FY2022, then slightly rose to USD 62.4 million in FY2023 and USD 64.9 million in FY2024. This sharp decrease over the last four years is directly due to (QCO) measures, as per GTRI data. There was an increase in imports from other regions such as ASEAN countries, Sri Lanka, and the Czech Republic. One of the foremost impact was that the share of imports from China dropped from 87 per cent of India’s total toy imports in FY2019 to 64 per cent in FY2024. The Indian toy industry has an estimated value of USD 3 billion in contrast, to USD100 billion of China. In FY2019, share of China was 87 per cent in India’s global imports of USD 304.1 million. In FY2024, share of China was 64 per cent in India’s global imports of USD 64.9 million. Share of other suppliers was ASEAN with 16.7 per cent, Sri Lanka with 12.4 per cent and Czech Republic contributing 4.7 per cent. Government data quotes an IIM Lucknow case study to highlight that Indian toy industry witnessed remarkable growth in FY 2022-23 in comparison to FY 2014-15, with the decline in imports by 52 per cent rise in exports by 239 per cent and development of overall quality of the toys available in the domestic market. The study at the behest of Department for Promotion of Industry and Internal Trade (DPIIT) shows that the efforts of the Government have enabled in creation of a more conducive manufacturing ecosystem for the industry in a span of 6 years, from 2014 to 2020, which has seen doubling of the number of manufacturing units, reduction in dependence on imported inputs from 33 per cent to 12 per cent, increase in gross sales value by a CAGR of 10 per cent, and overall rise in labour productivity. According to GTRI, Government measures which have focused on increasing import duties and introducing the QCO. India dramatically raised import duties on toys beginning in February 2020. The basic customs duty was increased from 20 per cent to 60 per cent and then to 70 per cent in July 2021, where it currently remains. This substantial increase in duties made imported toys significantly more expensive, thus creating a competitive advantage for locally produced toys. The second intervention in the form of QCO, implemented from January 2021, mandates that all toys sold in India, whether domestically produced or imported, must comply with specific Indian standards for safety. However, according Ajay Srivastava, founder GTRI, exports did not benefit from the QCO. While the domestic measures were primarily aimed at boosting local industry and ensuring safety, they did not significantly enhance India’s toy exports. From FY2020 to FY2022, exports increased modestly from USD 129.6 million to USD177 million. However, by FY2024, exports had decreased to USD 152.3 million. India exported electronic toys worth USD 25.7 million and imported such toys worth USD 0.06 million, exported plastic dolls, metal and other non-electronic toys amounting to USD 78.74 million, while imports were at USD 18.74 million. Parts of electronic toys saw exports of USD 0.15 million and imports of USD 20.99 million. Parts of other toys category had exports worth USD 47.75 million and imports of USD 25.13 million. The report suggests more comprehensive approach for development of toy industry with focus on developing a robust domestic ecosystem by investing in research and development to foster innovation in toy design and functionality and positioning Indian toys competitively on the global stage. The GTRI suggests strengthening partnerships between toy manufacturers and design institutes to continuously introduce innovative products and establishing specialised toy manufacturing hubs to reduce costs and increase efficiency. Modernising traditional Indian toys while preserving their cultural value to create unique products and support to small and medium enterprises in leveraging digital marketing and promoting Indian toys at international fairs to establish global connections are the other recommendations. That apart, says Srivastava, there is need to encourage global toy brands to manufacture in India and invite international toy manufacturers who currently operate in China, such as Hasbro, Mattel, Lego, Spin Master and MGA Entertainment to consider setting up facilities in India. This move could help shift part of the global toy production market to India. There are also lessons from China like analysing and adopting best practices from Chinese manufacturers who manage a vast range of toy types and scale production efficiently. India could study the capacity to produce both low-cost and high-quality toys, handle a wide range of toy types, from simple plush toys to complex electronic gadgets and easily scale production up or down to meet the demands of international brands. The GTRI founder also emphasises on reducing dependency on imports by developing local production capabilities for critical toy-making materials and components, such as glass eyes for dolls, beads, imitation stones, various types of plastics, electric motors and remote control apparatus will decrease costs and enhance the self-sufficiency of the Indian toy industry. Imports of inputs used for making toys is much higher than import of finished toys. For example, India imported glass eyes for dolls or other toys, beads and imitation stones of value USD 137.2 million in FY2024. These steps aim to not only strengthen India’s position in the global toy market but also ensure a sustainable and innovative domestic industry that can meet both local and international demands.

Services sector posts sharpest expansion in 14 yrs

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India’s service sector made a strong start to the first fiscal quarter as new business in terms of total sales and output registered the sharpest expansion in 14 years taking the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index to 60.8 in April. Despite falling from 61.2 at the end of the previous fiscal quarter, the last month saw the second-fastest rise in international orders in series history as near-record upturn in services exports helped boost sales growth on the back of favourable economic conditions, demand strength and rising intakes of new work. Business activity increased across the four sub-categories monitored by the survey, led by steep growth in finance and insurance. In addition to buoyant domestic demand, firms noted new business gains from several parts of the world, which collectively underpinned the second-quickest upturn in international sales since the series started in September 2014. Notably, services companies observed the second-fastest increase in new export business in the near 10-year series history, behind only that seen in March, buoyed by gains from several countries in Asia, Africa, Europe, the Americas and Middle East. Outstanding business meanwhile increased for the 28th consecutive month in April, albeit at a slight pace that was softer than in March and broadly aligned with the average over this sequence. According to Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, India’s service activity rose at a slightly softer pace in April, backed by a further rise in new orders, with a notable strength in domestic demand. “Although new export orders remained robust, they showed a slight moderation from March figures. Overall confidence among service providers for the year-ahead outlook improved markedly, bolstered by resilient demand conditions. In terms of overall activity, aggregate output across both the manufacturing and service sectors rose significantly in April, albeit at a slightly slower pace, indicating sustained health in these sectors,” says Bhandari. Wage pressures and higher food prices meanwhile led to another increase in cost burdens, which firms partially passed on to their customers. Charge inflation eased from March’s near seven-year high, however. Amid reports of higher input (particularly fruits and vegetables) and labour costs, operating expenses continued to increase in April. The overall rate of inflation pulled back since March and was broadly aligned with its long-run average. The consumer services segment saw by far the sharpest increase in input costs. A backdrop of robust underlying demand enabled service providers to pass part of their additional cost burdens through to clients in the form of increased charges. The rate of selling price inflation eased from March’s near seven-year high and was close to its long-run trend. Buoyed by rising inflows of new business, a few service providers in India showed an increased appetite for new hires in April. That said, with several companies indicating that payroll numbers were sufficient for current requirements, the rate of job creation was marginal and softer than that seen at the end of the previous fiscal year. Finally, confidence among service providers towards the year-ahead outlook for business activity improved to a three-month high. Marketing efforts and efficiency gains, alongside plans to price competitively and predictions that demand conditions will remain favourable, boosted optimism. The final HSBC India Composite index also signalled a substantial rate of expansion across the private sector, reading at 61.5 in April (March: 61.8), -- one of the highest seen in close to 14 years. It, however, came in below the flash estimate. As was the case for output, manufacturers continued to note a stronger increase in new business intakes than service providers. Aggregate sales rose sharply, and at one of the fastest rates since mid-2010. Goods producers also led April’s rise in payroll numbers, with softer growth in the service economy curbing job creation at the composite level. Aggregate input costs across India rose moderately at the start of the first fiscal quarter. The rate of inflation was softer than in March and below its long-run average. Here, the stronger increase was registered in the service sector. Moderate increases in selling prices were recorded at manufacturing firms and their services counterparts. Across the private sector, charge inflation softened since March.

India to grow 6.6 % in next two years, driven by public sector demand: OECD

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India’s GDP is projected to grow at 7.8 per cent in the just-concluded financial year 2023-24 and the forecast is for around 6.6 per cent in each of the following two fiscal years, according to OECD’s latest Economic Outlook. However, global near-term developments pose obstacles to higher growth. In the Economic Outlook report released on Thursday, the Paris-based research body Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has said India’s domestic demand will be driven by gross capital formation, particularly in the public sector, with private consumption growth remaining sluggish. OECD is a group of 37 member countries that discuss and develop economic and social policy. In the report, OECD asserted that exports will continue to grow, especially of services such as information technology and consulting where India will continue to increase its global market share, supported by foreign investment. In India, consumer price index (CPI) inflation was 4.9 per cent in March after averaging 5.1 per cent in the preceding two months, following the recent peak of 5.7 per cent in December 2023. Retail inflation in India is in RBI’s two-six per cent comfort level but is above the ideal 4 per cent scenario. Inflation has been a concern for many countries, including advanced economies, but India has largely managed to steer its inflation trajectory quite well. The Indian central bank’s monetary policy, the OECD report said that the monetary policy easing is projected to start in the second half of the year once lower inflation is maintained. Along anticipated lines, RBI kept the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50 per cent, the seventh time in a row in its latest review meeting. The repo rate is the rate of interest at which the RBI lends to other banks. Barring latest pauses, the RBI raised the repo rate by 250 basis points cumulatively to 6.5 per cent since May 2022 in the fight against inflation. Raising interest rates is a monetary policy instrument that typically helps suppress demand in the economy, thereby helping the inflation rate decline. “Assuming a normal monsoon season and no other supply shocks that may de-anchor inflation expectations, a first cut of the policy rate is projected in late 2024, with cumulative cuts of up to 125 basis points implemented before March 2026. The RBI will only switch the stance to neutral during 2025,” the report read. Further, the report suggested that India needs to achieve a higher level of real GDP growth to address the country’s multiple development challenges, especially job creation. To ensure further progress, unpredictable export restraints and tax surcharges should be avoided, subsidies for fertilizers and pesticides reduced, and minimum price supports rationalized, it further suggested. “In addition, requirements to sell produce in mandis (state-regulated wholesale markets) should be relaxed. Such bold actions must be accompanied by pro-active communication, open dialogue with stakeholders, and regulatory safeguards,” it added.

OECD 2024 outlook: An unfolding recovery

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

There are signs that the global outlook has started to brighten, though growth remains modest. The impact of tighter monetary conditions continues, especially in housing and credit markets, but global activity is proving relatively resilient, inflation is falling faster than initially projected and private sector confidence is improving. Supply and demand imbalances in labour markets are easing, with unemployment remaining at or close to record lows. Real incomes have begun to improve as inflation moderates and trade growth has turned positive. Developments continue to diverge across countries, with softer outcomes in many advanced economies, especially in Europe, offset by strong growth in the United States and many emerging market economies. Global activity has proved surprisingly resilient so far Global growth in 2023 continued at an annual rate above 3%, despite the drag exerted by tighter financial conditions and other adverse factors, including Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine and the evolving conflict in the Middle East. Global GDP growth is projected at 3.1% in 2024 and 3.2% in 2025, little changed from the 3.1% in 2023. This is weaker than seen in the decade before the global financial crisis, but close to currently estimated potential growth rates in both advanced and emerging market economies. Inflation has been falling towards targets, but some pressures persist Headline inflation fell rapidly in most economies during 2023, driven down by restrictive monetary policy settings, lower energy prices and continued easing of supply chain pressures. Food price inflation also came down sharply in most countries, as good harvests for key crops such as wheat and corn saw prices fall rapidly from highs reached after the start of the war in Ukraine. Core goods price inflation has generally fallen steadily, but services price inflation has been stickier, remaining well above pre-pandemic averages in most countries.

Agri, services grab bigger pie of loans, bank credit grows 16.3% in March 2024

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Bank credit growth to agriculture and services sector at more than 20 per cent year-on-year, in March 2024, surpassed loans to industry which grew by 8.5 per cent yoy in the month under observation. On a yoy basis, non-food bank credit registered a growth of 16.3 per cent in March 2024, as compared with 15.4 per cent a year ago, Reserve Bank of India said on Wednesday. Credit growth to agriculture and allied activities was robust at 20.1 per cent yoy in March 2024 as compared to 15.4 per cent growth a year ago, according to RBI data on sectoral deployment of bank credit for the month of March 2024, collected from 41 select scheduled commercial banks, accounting for about 95 per cent of the total non-food credit deployed by all scheduled commercial banks. Credit growth to services sector improved to 20.2 per cent (y-o-y) in March 2024 (from 19.6 per cent a year ago), with higher growth in credit to ‘transport operators’ and ‘commercial real estate’. Credit growth to ‘non-banking financial companies (NBFCs)’ and ‘trade’, however, decelerated in March 2024 as compared with March 2023. The share of the services sector in bank credit increased marginally to 28.3 per cent. Within services, the highest credit growth was recorded by the aviation sector, which grew 56 per cent to Rs 43,246 crore. Credit to industry grew by 8.5 per cent as compared with 5.6 per cent in March 2023. The pace of credit growth at 7 per cent to large industries more than doubled in FY24 from the 3.1% per cent a year before. As 22 March, 2024, the share of industry in bank credit contracted 23.1 per cent from 24.8 per cent in March 2023. Among major industries, growth in credit yoy to sectors such as chemicals and chemical products, food processing and infrastructure’ accelerated in March 2024 as compared with the corresponding month of the previous year, while that to ‘basic metal and metal products’ moderated. An ICRA report also points out that incremental non-food bank credit expansion has been robust so far at Rs. 20.9 trillion in FY2024 (till 8 March, 2024, exceeding the year-ago level of Rs 16.8 trillion, aided by the retail and services segments. The rating agency estimates incremental credit at Rs 22.0-22.5 trillion in FY2024 (excluding the impact of the HDFC-HDFC bank merger), implying a yoy growth of 16.1 per cent -16.5 per cent as compared to 15.4 per cent plus in FY2023). This would be the highest-ever credit expansion in any year, far outpacing the Rs 18.2 trillion seen in FY2023. On the sectoral front, within industry, infrastructure saw loans grow by 6.5 per cent to Rs 12.8 lakh crore. A CRISIL Ratings study of 11 large and listed residential developers, accounting for one third of the residential property sales in the country, indicates that large developers have already strengthened their credit profiles by deleveraging balance sheets via robust sales and collections over the past two fiscals and focussing more on asset light-models (joint ventures and joint development). Higher collections and sharper focus on asset-light models have enabled deleveraging of balance sheets, which, in turn, supports the credit profiles of developers. “The momentum in demand and robust collections will help developers fund new launches and withstand any downcycles without stressing their credit profiles. Developer’s ability to maintain leverage amid more launches will bear watching,” says Pallavi Singh, Associate Director, CRISIL Ratings. For FY2025, ICRA projects the incremental credit growth at Rs 19.0-20.5 trillion (including the impact of the HDFC-HDFC bank merger), implying a yoy growth in outstanding credit of 11.7 per cent -12.5 per cent, lower than the growth expected in FY2024 amid muted export demand in certain sectors, impact of higher interest rates as well as the increase in risk weights.

April GST collection surges to Rs 2.10 lakh crore

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Underscoring the robust health of the Indian economy, gross Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections hit a record high in April 2024 at Rs 2.10 lakh crore, representing a significant 12.4 per cent year-on-year growth. The surge was driven by a strong increase in domestic transactions which registered 13.4 per cent increase and imports which accounted for 8.3 per cent increase, the Finance Ministry said on Wednesday. After accounting for refunds, the net GST revenue for April 2024 stands at Rs 1.92 lakh crore, reflecting an impressive 15.5 per cent growth compared to the same period last year. “GST collection crosses Rs 2 lakh crore benchmark,” said Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman in a tweet, attributing the achievement to “the strong momentum in the economy and efficient tax collections. “Congratulations to the Central Board of Indirect Taxes & Customs, Department of Revenue, all officers at the state and central levels. Their sincere and collaborative efforts has achieved this landmark,“ Sitharaman said. The finer print of April 2024 collections reflects positive performance across components with Central GST (CGST) at Rs 43,846 crore and state GST (SGST) at Rs 53,538 crore. The integrated GST (IGST) collection was Rs 99,623 crore, including Rs 37,826 crore collected on imported goods. The cess collection was Rs 13,260 crore, including Rs 1,008 crore collected on imported goods. The GST collection figures, notes Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA, displays an impressive double-digit expansion and reflecting the collections for the previous month, which typically include year-end adjustments made by the taxpayers. In the month of April, 2024, the Central Government settled Rs 50,307 crore to CGST and Rs 41,600 crore to SGST from the IGST collected. This translates to a total revenue of Rs 94,153 crore for CGST and Rs 95,138 crore for SGST for April 2024 after regular settlement. “This IGST settlement of Rs 91907 crore is Rs 4,413 crore more than the actual net IGST collections of Rs 87,494 crore and stands settled by the Central Government. There are no dues pending on account of IGST settlement to the states,” the Finance Ministry said. Economists have lauded the GST collections with Shravan Shetty, Managing Director at Primus Partners observing that the 12.4 per cent y-o-y increase in GST points to the fact that growth is driven by both an increase in goods produced and the formalisation of the economy driven by increasing compliance. “April typically has the highest collection of GST in a year as seen last year,” points out Shetty, who expects coming months to be close to the 1.7-2 lakh crore mark which should pick up as India enters the festive season post rainy season. Key factors to consider for the coming months, as per Shetty, would be the current heat wave and the impact of it on manufacturing and services output. “Also, the coming monsoon will impact the agricultural and rural economy which will determine GDP growth and GST collections in the second half of the year,” Shetty adds. Nayar anticipates that the CGST collections exceeded the FY2024 revised estimate by Rs 250-300 billion, suggesting an embedded growth of 9 per cent to meet the target set in the Interim Budget Estimates for FY2025,” said Nayar. According to the Finance Ministry’s monthly economic review last month, March 2024 witnessed a significant milestone in India’s tax revenue landscape, particularly in GST collections. The gross GST revenue for the month stood at an impressive Rs 1.78 lakh crore, a substantial 11.5 per cent year-on-year growth. The increase was primarily driven by domestic transactions that witnessed a huge surge. Collection from domestic transactions signifies a buoyant domestic economic landscape, instilling optimism and bolstering overall revenue accruals. Furthermore, the steady rise in average monthly collections by approximately Rs 18,000 crore throughout the year underscores a compelling narrative of robust growth and economic recovery. With March concluding the fiscal year 2024, the uptick in GST collections not only reflects robust compliance but also signifies an expansion in the ambit of GST, covering a broader spectrum of economic activities within its purview, the Finance Ministry said. The surge in GST collection from domestic transactions, registering a remarkable 17.6 per cent increase, played a pivotal role in driving this growth momentum. Moreover, the GST revenue net of refunds for March 2024 amounted to Rs 1.65 lakh crore, indicating an 18.4 per cent expansion compared to the same period in the previous year.

Global gold demand stays strong, supports record-high prices

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Global gold demand was up 3 per cent year-on-year at 1,238 tonne in the first quarter of 2024, marking the strongest first quarter since 2016, according to World Gold Council’s Gold Demand Trends report. The demand for the yellow metal, excluding over-the-counter sales, fell 5 per cent to 1,102 tonne as compared to the same period of 2023. Healthy investment, persistent buying by central banks, and higher demand from Asian buyers helped drive the gold price to a record quarterly average of USD 2,070 per ounce, 10 per cent higher year-on-year and 5 per cent higher quarter-on-quarter. Central banks continued to buy gold apace, adding 290 tonne to official global holdings during the quarter. Turning to investment demand, bar and coin investment increased 3 per cent year-on-year, remaining steady at the same levels from the fourth quarter of 2023 at 312 tonne. Global jewellery demand remained resilient, despite record-high prices, only falling 2 per cent year-on-year. Demand in Asia countered decreases in both Europe and North America. In addition, demand for gold in technology recovered 10 per cent year-on-year driven by the AI boom in the electronics sector. On the supply side, mine production increased 4 per cent year-on-year to 893 tonne, a record first quarter. Recycling also reached the highest level since the third quarter of 2020, jumping 12 per cent year-on-year to 351 tonne, as some investors saw the high price as an opportunity to take profits. “Since March, the gold price has climbed to all-time highs, despite traditional headwinds of a strong US dollar and interest rates that are proving to be ‘higher for longer’,” Louise Street, Senior Markets Analyst at the World Gold Council. “Number of factors are behind the recent surge including heightened geopolitical risk and ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty driving safe-haven demand for gold. In addition, the continued and resolute demand from central banks, strong OTC investment and increased net buying in the derivatives market, have all contributed to the higher price of gold.” Historically, gold, as an asset, is considered to be a haven as it typically manages to retain or appreciate its underlying value in times of turbulence. Further, interestingly, the gold market is witnessing shifting behavior trends from Eastern and Western investors, Street said. Typically, investors in Eastern markets are more responsive to the price, waiting for a dip to buy, whereas Western investors have historically been attracted to a rising price, tending to buy into the rally. “In Q1, we saw those roles reversed with investment demand in markets such as China and India growing considerably as the gold price surged.” Demand for gold in India for first quarter of 2024 was at 136.6 tonnes, up by 8 per cent as compared to overall first-quarter demand for 2023 at 126.3 tonnes. Looking ahead, 2024 is likely to produce a much stronger return for gold than the World Gold Council anticipated at the beginning of the year, said Street. “Should the price level off in the coming months, some price-sensitive buyers may re-enter the market and investors will continue to look to gold for a safe haven asset as they seek clarity around rate cuts and election results.”

No significant impact of election on equity market says Fidel Folio

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Expects Nifty 50 to reach the range of 30,000-35,000 points in the next three years. According to an analysis by FidelFolio, the current general election and its outcome would not have any major long-term effect on the equity markets. Apart from few exceptions, the Nifty Indices have often demonstrated an upward trajectory around elections period, according to the report “Deciphering Market Trends: Navigating Pre-Election Dynamics and Global Turbulence” by FidelFolio. It says that Nifty 50 is expected to be between 30,000 and 35,000 points in 3 years. Despite all of the difficulties and market volatility during the previous 30 years, the Nifty index has provided a CAGR return of ~13% when examining market returns for the period. Despite the weakest coalition government in office from 1996 to 1998, the index managed to provide slightly positive returns following a period of significant volatility. Kislay Upadhyay, smallcase manager & Founder of FidelFolio stated, “As the country gears up for another crucial election, investors are keenly eyeing the market’s performance, wondering whether it will witness a pre-election rally or correction. However, the global scenario paints a contrasting picture. The growing turbulences in the Middle East, the Russia-Ukraine conflict, and the poor economic indicators from the major economies could impact the Indian stock market. Subsequently, the customary three- to six-month post-election review may not be as applicable this time around since global issues could soon eclipse the consequences of the election outcomes.” In 2014, as illustrated in the graph below, anticipation of a new government and its potential influence on the economic growth spurred a pre-election rally. Indices such as Nifty 100 Quality 30 (13% & 25% from 6% & 10% after 3 & 6 months respectively) and Nifty 200 Momentum (14% & 35% from 11% &13%) saw significant improvements, thus reflecting positive sentiments. However, in 2019, while expectations of the reigning government remained high, the lack of anticipation of any significant changes in economic policies led to a slight negative trend in indices (shown in graph below) across almost all sectors. Looking ahead to the 2024 election there’s a general consensus that the current government will retain power. While this may provide stability and continuity, expectations for major shifts in government policies or thrust areas is miniscule. Sectoral Predictions During the past two elections it was observed that the performance within various sectors differed significantly. While Nifty Healthcare witnessed a substantial upward trend (20% & 42% from 2% & 8% after 3 & 6 months respectively), the Nifty Energy saw a negative trend (0% & -1% from 27% & 25%). Expressing his optimism about how his portfolio will be impacted by the elections, Mr. Upadhyay further added, “We firmly believe that this time quality stocks with strong fundamentals (companies with high capital efficiency and growth) will be attractive and will gain market share. In the recent past, quality stocks have not performed and will perform now. Shivalik compounder, a portfolio of FidelFolio Investment consists of quality stocks filtered with specified criteria, will benefit.” Although, this year, it is expected that quality stocks will do well in banking and financial services, diagnostic, and the consumer discretionary segment. However, investors should remain vigilant and adaptable in response to the ever-evolving global dynamics.

Inheritance Tax decoded for you

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In 2011, during a Planning Commission meeting, the then Home Minister P Chidambaram had batted for higher taxes on luxury products and re-imposing inheritance tax. An inheritance tax is a tax imposed by some states on the recipients of inherited assets. In contrast to an estate tax, an inheritance tax is paid by the recipient of a bequest rather than the estate of the deceased. In 1953, India created a law to tax inheritances, but got rid of it 1985 by the Rajiv Gandhi government. As per the Act, law that said a tax was owed on things a person owned (like land, houses, or other valuables) when they died and left them to someone else. This tax only applied to adults (people 18 and older) and everything they owned, including farmland. Even though the assets passed on to legal heirs could be considered gifts since they are received without any consideration, no gift tax is imposed because the Income-tax Act of 1961 excludes assets received through inheritance or a will from the purview of gifts. Before which a high “estate duty” of up to 85% of the inherited property’s value was required to be paid by the executors of the deceased’s estate under the Estate Duty Act of 1953. History of Inheritance Tax In 1953, the Estate Duty Act was enacted in India to address economic inequality by introducing an estate duty tax. This tax was designed to be progressive, with rates increasing up to 85 percent for estates valued over Rs 20 lakh. It applied to both immovable and movable properties, regardless of their location, that were inherited by successors upon an individual’s death. In 1985, the then Finance Minister V.P. Singh abolished it as the income generated for the Centre via such taxes was much less than the cost incurred due to the administrative process in executing it. As of date, there is no tax imposed on property inherited, whether through a will or by intestate succession. How is inheritance tax calculated? The first step in dealing with a deceased estate is often to determine its total value. This involves assessing the value of all assets owned by the deceased, including real estate, investments, bank accounts, vehicles, and personal belongings, while also considering any outstanding debts or liabilities. Whether or not inheritance tax applies depends on several factors, including the total value of the estate and the laws of the jurisdiction. In some places, certain beneficiaries, such as spouses or children, may be exempt from paying inheritance tax or may receive a reduced tax rate. Were there efforts to revive inheritance tax? In 2011, during a Planning Commission meeting, the then-Home Minister P Chidambaram had batted for higher taxes on luxury products and re-imposing inheritance tax. At a meeting headed by the then-PM Manmohan Singh, he said, “Since non-plan expenditure is difficult to contain, the tax-GDP ratio must be raised especially by taxing conspicuous consumption and imposing inheritance tax.” Prior to the Union Budget in 2013, Chidambaram had said, “Non-debt revenue should be increased; therefore, the rich must be prepared to pay more tax.” In a 2013 lecture to honor Raja Chelliah, Mr. Chidambaram called for a debate on the need for inheritance tax. He had questioned the accumulation of wealth by a few individuals while the majority languished. Similarly, in 2017, reports suggested that the then-Finance Minister Arun Jaitley was planning to levy taxes on inherited wealth. The proposed move was to levy tax on any property or cash above Rs 50,000 received or inherited by a person as an ‘income from other sources.’ Due to severe backlash from the public, the move was scrapped. Later in 2018, Jaitley claimed that inheritance tax was the reason for large endowments to hospitals, universities, and other institutions in the West. Contrasting it to India, he stated funding for such institutions were mainly from religious groups and corporate social responsibility (CSR) programmes. He claimed that endowments from rich individuals were not a norm in India. However, he did not suggest re-imposing the tax.

‘Foreign investment no longer aligned with GDP growth’

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

A significant shift has taken place in the global economy with the growth of foreign direct investment (FDI) and global value chains (GVCs) no longer aligned with GDP and trade growth and even amidst rising trade tensions, global GDP and trade, since 2010, have continued to expand at an annual average of 3.4 per cent and 4.2 per cent respectively. In stark contrast, FDI growth has stagnated near zero per cent in the midst of rising protectionism, growing geopolitical tensions and increased investor caution, says the latest UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report “Global economic fracturing and shifting investment patterns” launched on 23rd April. The report examines the complex landscape of global FDI and sheds light on how over the past two decades, transformative shifts driven by technological advances, policy developments and sustainability demands have reshaped globalisation, compelling FDI patterns to adapt in three key aspects. It emphasises the necessity of integrating sustainability and development into investment strategies and calls for innovative investment strategies to foster inclusive and sustainable economic growth. Here are some key findings. Second, notes UNTAD, there is a widening gap in investment trends between manufacturing and services sectors with investments increasingly leaning towards services. From 2004 to 2023, the share of cross-border greenfield projects in the services sector grew from 66 per cent to 81 per cent and services-related investment within manufacturing industries nearly doubled to about 70 per cent, driven by technological advances. Simultaneously, FDI in manufacturing was stagnating for two decades before going down significantly, with a negative compound annual growth rate of -12 per cent in the three years after the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic. The decline in manufacturing has severely impacted smaller economies, hindering their ability to participate in global production, upgrade production methods and adopt new technologies. On the other hand, expansion of the services sector mainly benefits larger developing economies that can effectively compete, creating an imbalance that leaves smaller ones at a disadvantage, accentuating disparities and underscoring the need for policies that provide all developing countries equal opportunities. The decline severely hinders developing economies’ efforts to leverage participation in GVCs for economic development and industrial transformation. The share of cross-border greenfield projects in the services sector rose from about 65% two decades ago to over 80%. And services-related investment within manufacturing industries nearly doubled to about 70%, driven by technological advances. Meanwhile, FDI in manufacturing has seen a significant downturn, with a compound annual growth rate of -12% in the three years following the outbreak of the pandemic. The decline severely hinders developing economies’ efforts to leverage participation in GVCs for economic development and industrial transformation. A key finding of the report is that investment patterns in China have delinked from the rest of the world with the geography of global FDI being significantly re-shaped by China’s reduced role as a recipient country, a process that accelerated after the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. Over the past three years, the number of greenfield projects to China has hovered at a level around one third the same figure a decade ago. Multinational corporations have shown diminishing enthusiasm for launching new investments in China. However, China continues to play a dominant role in global manufacturing and trade, suggesting that its “global factory” mode has not downsized but instead transitioned from globally integrated production networks to more domestically focused ones. The UNCTAD report flags concern over the transition from divergence to fracturing in global investment patterns amidst recent global conflicts and crises which have disrupted usual investment patterns, leading to unstable investment relationships and limited chances to benefit from strategic diversification. The report cautions that FDI decisions are now more frequently influenced by geopolitical factors, at times overriding economic determinants, complicating standard approaches to investment promotion and hindering FDI-based development. Investments between geopolitically distant countries – those with divergent political interests or foreign policies – decreased from 23 pr cent in 2013 to 13 pr cent in 2022. This trend particularly affected the manufacturing sector as trade tensions began to escalate in 2019. The transition from divergence to fracturing and sectoral shifts and geographic rebalancing of FDI offer potential benefits but these are likely to be available only to a small group of developing economies. Most others face declining manufacturing investment and a shrinking pool of efficiency-seeking, lower value-added projects to leverage for GVC participation. Heightened uncertainty and fracturing are eroding the predictable and open global investment environment upon which they rely to support their development objectives. The other cause for worry, says UNCTAD is that despite progress toward sustainability and the sustainable development goals (SDGs), impact on developing nations are mixed. The sustainability imperative and the drive to stimulate investment in the SDGs have opened new opportunities for investment-driven industrial development, particularly in environmental technologies. However, these new opportunities can only compensate in part for the lack of FDI growth in other industrial sectors. The growing trend of FDI to environmental technologies offers new opportunities but fails to fully address the slowdown in other industries, specially affecting developing and least developed countries increasing the vulnerability of their economies. Investments in environmental technologies like wind and solar energy have surged. Their share of total greenfield projects in non-services sectors jumped from 1 per cent in the early 2000s to 20 per cent by 2023. Likewise, FDI in the manufacturing of electric vehicles and batteries has seen 27% annual growth over the past decade. However, this growth only partially offsets the decline in other manufacturing sectors. It also primarily benefits developed countries, while least developed countries (LDCs) continue to struggle with reduced FDI in traditional sectors. Given the imperitive to bridge investment disparities across sectors and regions, UNCTAD has called for immediate action to ensure that the benefits of investment are distributed more equitably and aligned with overarching developmental objectives. The key policy recommendations from UN Trade and Development underline the need for developing countries to revise their economic development strategies and calls on global policymakers, business leaders, and development agencies to enhance collaboration at global and regional level and work towards a more open and fairer global investment environment.

Surge in housing launches across India

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The first quarter of 2024 witnessed a decent increase in new housing launches across the top 7 cities in India, according to a report by Anarock, a leading real estate services company. A total of approx. 1,10,900 residential units were launched, representing a year-over-year growth of 1% compared to Q1 2023 (1,09,600 units launched). However, there was a slight quarter-over-quarter decrease of 6% from Q4 2023 (1,17,400 units launched). MMR (Mumbai Metropolitan Region), Hyderabad, Pune, and Bengaluru were the key contributors to the surge in new launches, collectively accounting for 83% of the total supply addition. Notably, MMR and Hyderabad emerged as the frontrunners, contributing over half (51%) of the new launches within the top 7 cities. Kolkata held the smallest market share at 4%. In terms of budget segmentation, the mid segment (INR 40 lakh - INR 80 lakh) continued to dominate new housing supply, holding a significant market share of 33% in Q1 2024. The premium segment (INR 80 lakh - INR 1.5 crore) and the affordable segment (less than INR 40 lakh) captured respective shares of 24% and 18%. SALES TREND Q1 2024 witnessed robust sales activity in the Indian housing market, with approx. 1.30 lakh units sold. This represents a 2% increase compared to the previous quarter (Q4 2023) and an impressive 14% year-over-year growth across the top 7 cities. Residential sales activity remained concentrated in NCR, MMR, Bengaluru, Pune, and Hyderabad – collectively accounting for a 91% share of total sales in Q1 2024. Chennai and Kolkata witnessed relatively lower sales volumes, each contributing a modest 4% share individually. AVAILABLE INVENTORY Q1 2024 saw a reduction in available inventory across the top 7 cities. Compared to Q4 2023, the available inventory levels decreased by 3%. This trend continued on a yearly basis, with a more significant decline of 7%. NCR experienced the steepest year-on-year decline in available inventory among the major cities, with a decrease of 27%. Kolkata and Bengaluru followed suit with noticeable Y-o-Y declines of 20% and 16%, respectively. TOP 7 CITIES Four key cities – MMR, Hyderabad, Pune, and Bengaluru – emerged as the powerhouses of new residential launches in Q1 2024, collectively accounting for an impressive 83% of the total launches across the top 7 cities. MMR, the perennial powerhouse, claimed the top spot with a commanding 30% share. Hyderabad followed closely behind, contributing a significant 21% of new launches. Following suit, Pune and Bengaluru, have accounted of 17% and 15% of the Pan India supply, respectively. NCR, Chennai, and Kolkata witnessed a comparatively modest influx of new launches, collectively accounting for the remaining 17% market share. Chennai takes the lead for the most impressive quarter-onquarter growth, boasting a 30% surge in new residential launches. Bengaluru, NCR, and Pune followed suit, emerging as the only other cities to witness growth, with increase of 13%, 11%, and 3% respectively compared to Q4 2023. Looking at the annual picture (Y-o-Y), Hyderabad stood at the forefront, showcasing a remarkable 57% increase in new residential launches. Bengaluru and Chennai stand out as the only other major cities experiencing positive YoY growth, with impressive gains of 22% and 14% respectively compared to the same period last year.

Some interesting pieces of statistics on 1957 LS polls

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

A snapshot of second general election in Independent India

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

BJP’s ascent and Cong’s downfall over the years

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Number of Internet subscribers increases to 936.16 million

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Auguring well for the Government’s digital mission, India’s total number of Internet subscribers increased from 918.19 million at the end of September 2023 to 936.16 million at the end of December 23, registering a quarterly rate of growth 1.96 per cent. Out of the 936.16 million Internet subscribers, the number of wired Internet subscribers are 38.57 million and number of wireless Internet subscribers are 897.59 million, as per the Indian Telecom Services Performance Indicators for the October–December 2023 period released by the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India on Tuesday. The Internet subscriber base is comprised of broadband subscriber base of 904.54 million and narrowband Internet subscriber base of 31.62 million. The broadband Internet subscriber base increased by 2.21 per cent from 885 million at the end of September 2023 to 904.54 million at the end of December 2023. The narrowband Internet subscriber base decreased from 33.19 million at the end of September 23 to 31.62 million at the end of December 23, as per TRAI. The report also shows wireline subscribers increased from 30.98 million at the end of September 2023 to 31.84 million at the end of December 23 with a quarterly rate of growth 2.79 per cent and on yoy basis, wireline subscriptions also increased by 15.98 per cent at the end of the quarter ended December 2023. Wireline tele-density increased from 2.22 per cent at the end of September 2023 to 2.28 per cent at the end of December 23 with quarterly rate of growth 2.56 per cent.

Composition of Telephone Subscribers

The monthly average revenue per user (ARPU) for wireless service increased by 1.93 per cent from Rs149.66 in the quarter ended September 2023 to Rs152.55 in the quarter ended December 2023. On yoy basis, monthly ARPU for wireless service increased by 8.09 per cent in this quarter. Prepaid ARPU per month increased from Rs148 in the September (Q3) 2023 to Rs149.56 in the December (Q4) 2023 and postpaid ARPU per month also increased from Rs167.93 in QE Sep-23 to Rs189.08 in Q4 2023. On an all-India average, the overall MOU per subscriber per month increased by 0.71 per cent from 948 in Q3 2023 to 955 in Q4 of 2023. Prepaid MOU per subscriber is 989 and postpaid MOU per subscriber per month is 536 in Q4 2023. The revenue (AGR) of telecom service sector for the fourth quarter 2023 has been Rs 84,500 crore, Rs 81,101 crore and Rs 67,835 crore respectively. The GR increased by 2.13 per cent, ApGR increased by 1.70 per cent and AGR increased by 1.88 per cent in Q4, as compared to previous quarter. The yoy rate of growth in GR, ApGR and AGR in Q4 2023 over the same quarter in last year has been -4.16 per cent, 5.84 per cent and 7.84 per cent respectively. Pass through charges increased from Rs13,425 crore in Q3 2023 to Rs13,452 crore in Q4 2023 with quarterly rate of growth by 0.21 per cent. The yoy rate of decline of 6.46 per cent has been recorded in pass-through charges for Q4 2023. The license fee increased from Rs 5,326 crore for the Q3 2023 to Rs 5,433 crore for the Q4 2023. The quarterly and the yoy rates of growth in license fees are 2.01 per cent and 7.98 per cent respectively in this quarter. Access services contributed 82.07 per cent of the total adjusted gross revenue of telecom services. The number of telephone subscribers in India increased from 1,181.13 million at the end of September 2023 to 1,190.33 million at the end of December 2023, registering a rate of growth 0.78 per cent over the previous quarter. This reflects yoy rate of growth 1.70 per cent over the same quarter of the last year. The overall tele-density in India increased from 84.76 per cent as in Q3 2023 to 85.23 per cent as in Q4 December 2023. Telephone subscribers in urban areas increased from 658.46 million at the end of September 2023 to 662.56 million at the end of December 2023 and urban tele-density also increased from 133.54 pr cent to 133.76 per cent during the same period. Rural telephone subscribers increased from 522.66 million at the end of September 2023 to 527.77 million at the end of December 2023 and rural teledensity also increased from 58.05 per cent to 58.56 per cent during the same period. Out of the total subscription, the share of rural subscription increased from 44.25 per cent at the end of September 2023 to 44.34 per cent at the end of December 2023. With a net increase of 8.34 million subscribers during the quarter, the total wireless subscriber base increased from 1,150.15 million at the end of September 23 to 1,158.49 million at the end of December 2023, registering a rate of growth of 0.72 per cent over the previous quarter. On yoy basis, wireless subscriptions also increased at the rate of 1.36 per cent during the year. Wireless tele-density increased from 82.54 per cent at the end of September 2023 to 82.95 per cent at the end of December 2023 with quarterly rate of growth 0.50 per cent.

Global growth at 2.6%, India’s strong public investment outlays, services beneficial

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India was one of the ‘large economies -- apart from China, Indonesia, the Russian Federation, the United States, among others – which escaped the financial trouble that loomed earlier in the year 2023 – thus emerging as a stakeholder in the world economic growth of 2.7 per cent, just 0.2 percentage point more than the threshold of 2.5 per cent that is often associated with a global recessionary phase. This also happened as the risks that threatened to substantially slow down global economic growth in 2023 remained subdued, and as a result of which, the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) report update said on Wednesday. The report warns of further growth deceleration in 2024, citing falling investments and subdued global trade dynamics which are expected to slow down global growth to 2.6 per cent in 2024, slightly slower than in 2023. This makes 2024 the third consecutive year in which the global economy will grow at a slower pace than before the pandemic, when the average rate for 2015–2019 was 3.2 per cent. The report finds policy discussions continuing to centre on inflation, conveying confidence that anticipated monetary easing will heal the world’s economic woes. Amidst these global woes, UNCTAD highlights that India grew 6.7 per cent in 2023 and it is expected to expand by 6.5 per cent in 2024. The expansion in 2023 was driven by strong public investment outlays as well as the vitality of the services sector which benefitted from robust local demand for consumer services and firm external demand for the country’s business services exports. These factors are expected to continue to support growth in 2024. In the outlook, an increasing trend of multinationals extending their manufacturing processes into India in an effort to diversify their supply chains will also have a positive impact on Indian exports, while moderating commodity prices will be beneficial to the country’s import bill. The Reserve Bank of India is expected to keep interest rates constant in the near term, while restrained public consumption spending will be offset by strong public investment expenditures. The prospect of interest rate cuts could improve the fiscal outlook for governments and businesses, but as UNCTAD notes, “the monetary policy alone cannot solve all pressing global challenges. Strategies to revive investment and trade, support full employment and fair income distribution are crucial to driving robust growth and meeting sustainable development goals”. In other Southern Asian countries, however, economic growth remains more subdued with three countries in the region – Bangladesh, Pakistan and Sri Lanka – currently under IMF programmes, the conditionalities of which necessitate the application of tight monetary policies and fiscal austerity measures whose impacts are most severely felt by low-income households. Meanwhile, the pressing challenges of trade disruptions, climate change, low growth, underinvestment and inequalities are growing more serious. Even more concerning than its projected pace, is the fact that global growth appears to be strongly driven by private consumption which in 2024 is projected to grow about 4 per cent while total income is only projected to expand 2.6 per cent. In practice, patterns observed since the early 2000s indicate that periods of fast consumption growth tend to be financed by borrowing. Given that the savings accumulated during the pandemic (mainly by more affluent households) have now mostly returned to pre-2020 levels, debt is the likely source of funding for a large share of consumption. In Asia, the economy of China, its largest economy, expanded by 5.2 per cent in 2023. For 2024, the Government set an official growth rate target of “around 5 per cent”, indicating its economic confidence and ambition. The economic data for January–February also showed positive signals, with the total value added of the manufacturing sector expanding 7.7 per cent year on year and the value of merchandise trade growing 8.7 per cent. Yet, the economy has been facing some headwinds, such as external uncertainties, troublesome housing market, underperforming labour market and subdued consumption. However, with the total government debt-to-GDP ratio standing at 55 per cent and inflation at 0.2 per cent at the end of 2023, fiscal and policy spaces allow for proactive fiscal policies and prudent monetary policy.

Highest ever Exports of Oilmeals in 2023-24

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The overall exports of oilmeals during Apr 2023 – Mar 2024 increased at 4,885,437 tons (provisional) valued at Rs. 15,370 crores compared to 4,336,287 tons valued at Rs. 11,400 crores during the same period of previous year, up by 13% in term of quantity and 35% in term of value, according to the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India (SEA). SEA’s the data for export of oilmeals for the month of March, 2024 (provisional) reported at 395,382 tons compared to 575,958 tons in March 2023, down by 31%. However, This is highest export of oilmeals since 2013-14 in term of quantity and value. Previously during 2013-14, India had exported 43.81 lakh tons of oilmeals valued at INR 11,500 crores. Export of Soybean Meal – More than doubled in 2023-24 The export of soybean meal revived during the year and reported at 21.33 lakh tons compared to 10.22 lakh tons during the same period of last year as Indian soybean meal was most competitive in the international market. However, currently as on 15th Apr.,2024, Indian soybean meal Ex-Kandla has quoted at US$ 490 per ton while soya meal Argentine cif Rotterdam at US$ 417 per ton facing strong competition from Argentine origin and likely to slow down in coming months. Export of Rapeseed Meal – Stagnant in 2023-24 The export of rapeseed meal during the year reported at 22.13 lakh tons compared to 22.97 lakh tons during the same period of last year i.e. more or less same, thanks to increased production of rapeseed in India in last three years. In case of rapeseed processing in India likely below potential in coming months due to disparity in crushing. The export sale of rapeseed meal have slowed down pronouncedly of late owing to growing competition from soya meal on the world market. Ban on Export of De-oiled Ricebran Extended till 31st July, 2024 The export of De-oiled Ricebran allowed till end July’23 and then banned w.e.f. 28th July, 2023 to 31st July, 2024. The export of De-oiled Ricebran during April to July 2023 reported only 1.52 lakh tons. The ban on export persisting Rice Bran Processors in Eastern India are now confronted with the looming threat of shutting down their operations. This not only adversely impacts the rice milling industry but also poses a risk to the overall production of Rice Bran Oil. Major Importers of Oilmeals Bangladesh become a largest importer of Indian oilmeals and reported 8.92 lakh tons consisting of 4.34 lakh tons of rapeseed meal, 4.31 lakh tons of soybean meal and 0.28 lakh tons of De-oiled ricebran. South Korea become the second largest importer of Indian oilmeals and reported at 8.32 lakh tons of oilmeals consisting of consisting of 547,763 tons of rapeseed meal, 226,407 tons of castorseed meal and 57,899 tons of soybean meal. Thailand also become the third largest importer of Indian oilmeals and reported at 6.33 lakh tons of oilmeals out of which 6.16 lakh tons rapeseed meal. Iran has turned out to be largest importer of Soybean meal from India (including shipment via Dubai) and imported a record quantity of soybean meal of 8.64 lakh tons during the financial year 2023-24. Major Ports - Export of Oilmeals Kandla become a largest port for export of oilmeals and reported 16.33 lakh tons of oilmeals consisting of 9.50 lakh tons of soybean meal and 6.82 lakh tons of rapeseed meal. Mundra become the second largest port for export of oilmeals and reported 14.53 lakh tons of oilmeals consisting of 9.61 lakh tons of rapeseed meal, 3.48 lakh tons of castorseed meal and 1.39 lakh tons of soybean meal. Mumbai/JNPT become a major ports for export of soybean meal mainly in containers from Maharashtra State. Most of the oilmeals prices in one year reduced in term of US$ per tons except Rapeseed meal which is slightly improved. The rupee remained more or less stagnant and moved slightly up from INR 82.26 to INR 83.02 against US$.

Global Economy Remains Resilient Despite Challenges

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Despite gloomy predictions, the global economy remains remarkably resilient, with steady growth and inflation slowing almost as quickly as it rose. The journey has been eventful, starting with supply-chain disruptions in the aftermath of the pandemic, an energy and food crisis triggered by Russia’s war on Ukraine, a considerable surge in inflation, followed by a globally synchronized monetary policy tightening. Global growth bottomed out at the end of 2022, at 2.3 percent, shortly after median headline inflation peaked at 9.4 percent. According to our latest World Economic Outlook projections, growth this year and next will hold steady at 3.2 percent, with median headline inflation declining from 2.8 percent at the end of 2024 to 2.4 percent at the end of 2025. Most indicators continue to point to a soft landing. We also project less economic scarring from the crises of the past four years, although estimates vary across countries. The US economy has already surged past its prepandemic trend. But we now estimate that there will be more scarring for low-income developing countries, many of which are still struggling to turn the page from the pandemic and cost-of-living crises. Resilient growth and rapid disinflation point toward favorable supply developments, including the fading of energy price shocks, and a striking rebound in labor supply supported by strong immigration in many advanced economies. Monetary policy actions have helped anchor inflation expectations even if its transmission may have been more muted, as fixed-rate mortgages became more prevalent. Despite these welcome developments, numerous challenges remain, and decisive actions are needed. Inflation risks remain Bringing inflation back to target should remain the priority. While inflation trends are encouraging, we are not there yet. Somewhat worryingly, progress toward inflation targets has somewhat stalled since the beginning of the year. This could be a temporary setback, but there are reasons to remain vigilant. Most of the good news on inflation came from the decline in energy prices and in goods inflation. The latter has been helped by easing supply-chain frictions, as well as by the decline in Chinese export prices. But oil prices have been rising recently in part due to geopolitical tensions and services inflation remains stubbornly high. Further trade restrictions on Chinese exports could also push up goods inflation. Economic divergences widen The resilient global economy also masks stark divergence across countries. The strong recent performance of the United States reflects robust productivity and employment growth, but also strong demand in an economy that remains overheated. This calls for a cautious and gradual approach to easing by the Federal Reserve. The fiscal stance, out of line with long-term fiscal sustainability, is of particular concern. It raises short-term risks to the disinflation process, as well as longer-term fiscal and financial stability risks for the global economy. Something will have to give. Growth in the euro area will rebound but from very low levels, as past shocks, and tight monetary policy weigh on activity. Continued high wage growth and persistent services inflation could delay the return of inflation to target. However, unlike in the United States, there is little evidence of overheating, and the European Central Bank will need to carefully calibrate the pivot toward monetary easing to avoid an inflation undershoot. While labor markets appear strong, that strength could prove illusory if European firms have been hoarding labor in anticipation of a pickup in activity that does not materialize. China’s economy remains affected by the downturn in its property sector. Credit booms and busts never resolve themselves quickly, and this one is no exception. Domestic demand will remain lackluster unless strong measures address the root cause. With depressed domestic demand, external surpluses could well rise. The risk is that this will further exacerbate trade tensions in an already fraught geopolitical environment. Many other large emerging market economies are performing strongly, sometimes benefiting from a reconfiguration of global supply chains and rising trade tensions between China and the US. These countries’ footprint on the global economy is increasing. Policy path Going forward, policymakers should prioritize measures that help preserve or even enhance the resilience of the global economy. The first such priority is to rebuild fiscal buffers. Even as inflation recedes, real interest rates remain high and sovereign debt dynamics have become less favorable. Credible fiscal consolidations can help lower funding costs, improve fiscal headroom and financial stability. Unfortunately, fiscal plans so far are insufficient and could be derailed further given the record number of elections this year. Fiscal consolidations are never easy but it is best not to wait until markets dictate their conditions. The right approach is to start now, gradually, and credibly. Once inflation is under control, credible multiyear consolidations will help pave the way for further monetary policy easing. The successful 1993 US fiscal consolidation and monetary accommodation episode comes to mind as an example to emulate. The second priority is to reverse the decline in medium term growth prospects. Some of that decline comes from increased misallocation of capital and labor within sectors and countries. Facilitating faster and more efficient resource allocation will boost growth. For low-income countries, structural reforms to promote domestic and foreign direct investment, and to strengthen domestic resource mobilization, will help lower borrowing costs and reduce funding needs. These countries also must improve the human capital of their large young populations, especially as the rest of the world is aging rapidly. Artificial intelligence also gives hope for boosting productivity. It may do so, but the potential for serious disruptions in labor and financial markets is high. Harnessing the potential of AI for all will require that countries improve their digital infrastructure, invest in human capital, and coordinate on global rules of the road. Medium-term growth prospects are also harmed by rising geoeconomic fragmentation and the surge in trade restrictive and industrial policy measures. Trade linkages are already changing as a result, with potential losses in efficiency. The net effect could well be to make the global economy less, not more, resilient. But the broader damage is to global cooperation. It is still time to reverse course. Third, a great achievement of the past few years has been the strengthening of monetary, fiscal and financial policy frameworks especially for emerging market economies. This has helped make the global financial system more resilient and avoid a permanent resurgence of inflation. Going forward, it is essential to preserve these improvements. That includes protecting the hard-won independence of central banks. Lastly, the green transition requires major investments. Cutting emissions is compatible with growth and activity has become much less emission-intensive in recent decades. But emissions are still rising. Much more needs to be done and done quickly. Green investment has expanded at a healthy pace in advanced economies and China. The greatest effort must now be made by other emerging market and developing economies, which must massively increase their green investment growth and reduce their fossil fuel investment. This will require technology transfer by other advanced economies and China, as well as substantial private and public financing. On these questions, as well as on so many others, multilateral frameworks and cooperation remain essential for progress. (This blog on IMF website is based on Chapter 1 of the April 2024 World Economic Outlook.)

Voter Turnout Saga: Beyond Numbers And Statistics

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

As the world's largest democracy, India's electoral saga stands as a resounding testament to the indomitable spirit of its people. From the fledgling days of Independence, when an overwhelming 85% of the eligible populace grappled with illiteracy, the nation has embarked on a transformative odyssey, witnessing a profound shift in the psyche of its electors and a steadily rising tide of voter participation. In the early years following the nation's birth in 1947, the daunting task of identifying, naming, and registering voters was akin to scaling an insurmountable peak. Yet, the seeds of democracy had been sown, and with each passing election, those seeds took root, gradually blossoming into a vibrant and engaged electorate. The 1951 general elections marked the beginning of this odyssey, with a modest 44.87% voter turnout from an electorate of over 17.32 crore. While the numbers may seem unimpressive by today's standards, they represented the first steps of a nascent nation, still finding its footing on the path of self-governance. [caption id="attachment_333278" align="alignnone" width="426"] women voter[/caption] As the decades unfolded, a remarkable transformation began to take shape. The 1962 elections witnessed a significant surge, with the voter turnout climbing to 55.42%, a clear indication that the democratic flame was igniting within the hearts and minds of the Indian populace. The 1967 polls further fueled this upward trajectory, with a resounding 61.04% of the electorate, numbering over 25.02 crore, exercising their franchise, a figure that would have been unimaginable just a few years prior. It was as if the nation had collectively awakened to the power and responsibility that democracy entailed. However, the true turning point came in 1984, when a staggering 63.56% of the electorate, numbering nearly 37.95 crore, cast their ballots, shattering previous records and setting a new benchmark for voter engagement. From that pivotal moment onwards, India's electoral journey has been one of consistent growth and unwavering determination. The 1989 elections witnessed a turnout of 61.95%, with over 49.89 crore electors making their voices heard, while the subsequent polls in 1991 and 1996 hovered around the 57% mark, with electorates of 49.84 crore and 59.26 crore respectively, a testament to the nation's steadfast commitment to the democratic process. Yet, the true crowning moment came in the 2014 general elections, when a remarkable 66.44% of the electorate, comprising over 83.41 crore individuals, made their voices heard at the ballot box. This was a watershed moment, a resounding affirmation that the Indian electorate had truly come of age, embracing their democratic rights and responsibilities with fervor and conviction. The 2019 elections further solidified this trend, with a record-breaking 67.4% voter turnout, surpassing even the lofty heights of 2014. Of the staggering 91.05 crore electors, over 61.37 crore cast their ballots, a moment of national pride, a resounding declaration that India's democracy had truly taken root, transcending boundaries of caste, creed, and religion, united by the shared belief in the power of the ballot. This remarkable journey, however, is not merely a story of statistics and numbers. It is a narrative woven from the threads of hope, determination, and the indomitable spirit of a nation that has risen from the ashes of colonialism to become a shining beacon of democracy on the global stage. Behind each percentage point lies a tapestry of stories, of individuals who have braved insurmountable odds to exercise their right to choose their leaders. From the remote villages of the Himalayas, where voters traverse treacherous terrain to reach the polling booths, to the teeming metropolises where the cacophony of democracy resonates through every alleyway, the Indian electorate has proven time and again that their voices cannot be silenced. This unwavering commitment to the democratic process is not merely a matter of civic duty; it is a profound expression of the nation's collective aspirations, a resounding rejection of the shackles of oppression that once bound its people. As India continues to stride forward, its electoral journey serves as a powerful reminder of the transformative power of democracy. It is a story that transcends boundaries, resonating with nations across the globe that are grappling with the complexities of self-governance and the delicate balance between individual freedoms and collective responsibility. Yet, this odyssey is far from over. With each passing election, the nation's electorate grows larger, more diverse, and more cognizant of the pivotal role they play in shaping the nation's destiny. The challenges that lie ahead are manifold, from combating misinformation and ensuring transparent and fair electoral processes, to addressing the persistent socio-economic disparities that threaten to undermine the democratic values on which this great nation was built. However, if the past is any indication, India's unwavering spirit and its people's resilience will undoubtedly prevail. For in the heart of every Indian, there beats a rhythm of hope, a belief in the power of the ballot to create a better tomorrow, a future where the dreams of a billion souls can find their voice and their aspirations can take flight. As the world watches with bated breath, India's electoral journey continues to unfold, a compelling saga that captivates the imagination and inspires nations across the globe. It is a story that reminds us that democracy is not merely a system of governance, but a living, breathing embodiment of the human spirit, a testament to the indomitable resilience of a people who have chosen to shape their destiny with the power of their collective will. In the end, India's voter turnout saga is not just a chronicle of numbers and statistics; it is a poetic tapestry woven from the threads of hope, determination, and the unwavering belief that in the heart of every citizen lies the power to change the course of history.

Overall Exports Touch $776.68BN in FY24

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Despite persistent global challenges, India’s overall exports (merchandise + services) in financial year 2023-24 (FY24) reached USD 776.68 billion, surpassing the USD 776.40 billion of overall exports achieved in 2022-23 (FY23) with a growth of 0.04 per cent year-on-year as electronic goods, drugs and pharmaceuticals, engineering goods, iron ore, cotton yarn/fabs./made-ups, handloom products etc. and ceramic products and glassware delivered strong numbers. Overall imports in FY24 (April-March) declined 4.81 per cent at USD 854.80 billion. Overall trade deficit significantly improved by 35.77 per cent to USD 78.12 billion in FY24 from USD 121.62 billion in FY23. The country’s robust performance in external trade is underlined by the highest monthly merchandise exports in March 2024 at USD 41.68 billion as compared to USD 41.96 billion in March 2023 while imports were USD 57.28Billion, as compared to USD 60.92 billion in March 2023. Services maintained upward momentum with India exporting USD 339.62 billion of services in FY24 compared to USD 325.33 billion in FY23. The country achieved services trade surplus of USD 162.05 billion in FY24 with services imports coming at USD 177.56 billion in FY24 as compared to USD 182.05 billion in FY23. Ashwani Kumar, President, FIEO points out that the achievement in overall export figures for the FY24 is impressive despite Russia Ukraine war, Red Sea crisis, tight monetary stance by the developed world and falling commodity prices posing challenges. Aditi Nayar Chief Economist ICRA notes that India’s merchandise trade deficit eased to an 11-month low of USD15.6 billion in March 2024, led by a larger yoy decline in merchandise imports vis-à-vis such exports, while also trailing the levels seen in the year-ago month. This comes amid a halving of gold imports and a fall in non-oil non-gold imports. “This is expected to augur well for the current account number in Q4 FY2024, which may witness a small, transient surplus of USD1-2 billion in the quarter,” says Nayar. On a slight downside, in FY24, merchandise exports declined to USD 437.06 billion as against USD 451.07 billion during FY23 while imports came down to USD 677.24 billion as against USD 715.97 billion during FY 23. This however, lowered merchandise trade deficit for FY 24 at estimated at USD 240.17 billion as against USD 264.90 billion during FY 23. India’s exports of merchandise and services combined in March 2024 at USD 70.21 billion also dipped 3.01 per cent over March 2023 while overall imports in March 2024 at USD 73.12 billion, exhibited a negative growth of 6.11 per cent over March 2023. Overall trade deficit is estimated to significantly improve by 35.77% from USD 121.62 Billion in FY 2022-23 to USD 78.12 Billion in FY 2023-24; Merchandise trade deficit improves by 9.33% at USD 240.17 Billion in the current FY as compared to USD 264.90 Billion in FY 2022-23. Among main drivers of merchandise export growth in FY 2023-24, non-petroleum and non-gems and jewellery goods which comprises basket of gold, silver and precious metals, grew to USD 33.67 billion, compared to USD 30.87 billion in March 2023. The same basket of imports in March 2024 were USD 35.21 billion, compared to USD 36.51 billion in March 2023. In FY24, non-petroleum and non-gems and jewellery exports increased by 1.45 per cent to USD 320.21 billion, as compared to USD 315.64 billion in FY23. The imports of this basket of goods were USD 422.80 billion in FY24 compared to USD 435.54 billion in FY23. In a sectoral show of strength, electronic goods exports increased by 23.64 per cent from USD 23.55 billion in FY 2022-23 to USD 29.12 billion in FY 2023-24 while drugs and pharmaceuticals exports increase by 9.67 per cent from USD 25.39 billion in FY 2022-23 to USD 27.85 billion in FY 2023-24. Engineering goods exports increased by 2.13 per cent from USD 107.04 billion in FY 2022-23 to USD 109.32 billion in FY 2023-24. Exports of agricultural commodities namely tobacco grew 19.46 per cent, fruits and vegetables grew 13.86 per cent, meat, dairy and poultry products grew 12.34 per cent, spices grew 12.30 per cent, cereal preparations and miscellaneous processed items grew 8.96 per cent, oil seeds grew 7.43 per cent and oil meals exhibited positive growth of 7.01 per cent.

Retail inflation eases to 4.85% in March ’24, experts flag food price worry

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Days after RBI kept its policy rates in abeyance, India’s consumer price index led retail inflation moderated to 4.85 per cent in March 2024 even as food inflation softened marginally and core inflation remained steady at 3.5 per cent. The CPI stood at 5.1 per cent in January and February, according to data from the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, released on Friday. Retail inflation averaged 5.4 per cent yoy in the first eleven months of FY24 (April ‘23 to Feb ‘24), with the trend marked by a higher first half at 5.5 per cent and moderation in second half on a pullback in food and core price pressures. “The evolving trend is close to our forecast of 5.3 per cent for the year, from 6.4 per cent the year before. We discuss relevant catalysts for the year ahead, with our forecast of 4.5% yoy in line with the central bank’s economic assessment,” Radhika Rao, Senior Economist DBS Group Research. Economists expect food and beverages inflation to remain above the 7.0 per cent mark in April 2024. An intensification of the impending heatwave may worsen the seasonal uptick in prices of perishables, heightening the criticality of a favourable monsoon in 2024 to keep food inflation in check and inflationary expectations well-anchored, as per ICRA estimates, notes Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist ICRA. Yet far in FY24, food inflation is still elevated in contrast to the global indices, with 11 out of 12 sub-segments posting growth on the year (see chart). Barring edible oil prices which have benefited from stabilising supply issues, all the other segments stay elevated, necessitating the authorities’ close attention. This suggests that domestic steps to control price rise is likely to continue, marking a continuation for export restrictions (wheat and rice already in place), cut in stockholding limits, cut in import duties, and improving inter-state procurement arrangements, amongst others. The RBI has retained its FY25 CPI inflation outlook of 4.5 per cent even as the MPC remains cautious on food price uncertainties, but optimistic on expectations of record rabi wheat production and early indications of normal monsoons this year. It also sees continued deflation in the fuel basket after the cut in LPG prices, but sees upside risks from rising costs faced by firms, geopolitical tensions, financial market volatility and the recent rise in global crude oil prices. Nayar suggests that the ongoing uptrend in international crude oil prices could also pose a risk to the CPI inflation outlook in the near term, although the extent of the impact would depend on the pass-through to retail fuel prices. Monetary easing is likely to be quite back-ended in 2024, pending clarity on various factors such as the turnout of the monsoon, evolution of crude oil prices as well as rate action from the US Fed.

Building India: Infra development in 10 years of Modi govt

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Government of India has embarked on an ambitious journey to revolutionize the country’s infrastructure landscape, aiming to bolster economic growth, enhance connectivity, and improve the quality of life for its citizens. With a focus on modernizing transportation networks, upgrading urban amenities, and expanding digital infrastructure, the government has launched several transformative initiatives. From the development of highways, railways, and airports to the promotion of waterways and ropeway systems, these efforts are aimed at fostering inclusive and sustainable development across the nation. India has achieved significant milestones in infrastructure development, including the inauguration of the world’s longest highway tunnel, the Atal Tunnel, and the construction of the world’s highest railway bridge, the Chenab Bridge. Additionally, India has set records by unveiling iconic landmarks like the Statue of Unity – the world’s tallest statue and embarked on transformative projects like the Zojila Tunnel, Asia’s longest tunnel, for all-weather connectivity in Ladakh. Further, from the architectural excellence of the Atal Setu in Mumbai, Bogibeel Bridge over Brahmaputra, Jaiswal Bridge and Dhola- Sadiya Bridge in the northeast, the infrastructure landscape in New India is reaching unprecedented heights. REVOLUTIONIZING INDIA’S ROADWAYS The progress of national highways in India has been remarkable in the last 10 years, reflecting a significant increase in budget allocation and construction pace. Since 2014, there has been a 500% increase in the road transport and highway budget allocation, leading to a substantial enhancement in infrastructure development. The speed of highway construction reached an impressive 37 km/day in 2020-21, marking a record for the fastest highway construction in India. Moreover, the National Highway (NH) network has expanded by 60% from 91,287 km in 2014 to 1,46,145 km by the year 2023. The length of 4-laned NH has increased by 2.5 times, from 18,387 km in 2014 to 46,179 km, as of November 2023. The average pace of NH construction has also seen a remarkable increase, rising by 143% to 28.3 km/day from the baseline 12.1 km/day in 2014. With a comprehensive network spanning 1,46,145 km, national highways play a crucial role in connecting regions and spurring economic growth across the country, complementing the extensive state highways spanning 1,79,535 km and other road infrastructure spanning 65,45,403 km. TRANSFORMING RURAL CONNECTIVITY THROUGH PMGSY India has witnessed significant progress in rural road infrastructure, with an impressive 3.74 lakh km of roads constructed since 2014 under the Pradhan Mantri Gram Sadak Yojana (PMGSY). This achievement has resulted in over 99% of rural habitations being connected, demonstrating the government’s commitment to enhancing accessibility and connectivity in rural areas. As of now, a staggering 7.55 lakh km of rural roads have been completed as compared to 3.81 lakh km of roads in 2013-14. BHARATMALA: EXTENSIVE ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT The Bharatmala Pariyojana was launched with the primary focus on optimizing the efficiency of the movement of goods and people across the country. The key components of the Pariyojana are Economic corridor development, Inter-corridor and feeder routes development, National Corridors Efficiency Improvement, Border, and International Connectivity Roads, Coastal and Port Connectivity Roads and Expressways. 25 Greenfield high-speed corridors have been envisaged for development under Bharatmala Pariyojana. Out of which, 20 are completed or under various stages of implementation. 34,800 km of National Highway length was planned for development under Phase-I of Bharatmala Pariyojana. As of Dec-2023, 26,418 km (i.e., 76% of 34,800 km) have been awarded for construction with completion of about 15,549 km. ADVANCEMENTS IN INDIA’S RAIL NETWORK India’s railway development reflects a remarkable stride towards modernization and improved connectivity, showcasing the Government’s commitment to enhancing transportation infrastructure for the nation’s progress. MODERNIZING RAIL TRAVEL THROUGH VANDE BHARAT TRAINS The Vande Bharat trains represent a significant advancement in India’s railway infrastructure, boasting enhanced safety features, faster acceleration, and improved passenger amenities. Equipped with Automatic Plug Doors, Reclining Ergonomic Seats, and Mobile charging sockets for every seat, these trains offer a comfortable and convenient travel experience. As of January 31, 2024, more than 100 Vande Bharat train services are operational across the Indian Railways, with an impressive overall occupancy rate of 96.62% during 2022-23. Further, on March 12, 2024, Prime Minister flagged off 10 new Vande Bharat trains. During his address, he informed that that not only most of the states have got Vande Bharat trains but the century of Vande Bharat Trains has also been hit. REVAMPING INDIA’S RAILWAY STATIONS The Amrit Bharat Station Scheme has been launched for the development and modernisation of Railway stations in India. This scheme envisages the development of stations on a continuous basis with a long-term approach. The scheme has seen significant progress with 1318 stations selected for redevelopment. ELECTRIFYING INDIA’S RAILWAYS With a vision of providing eco-friendly, faster, and energy-efficient mode of transportation, Indian Railways is marching ahead towards 100% electrification of Broad-Gauge tracks. Total Broad Gauge (BG) network of 61,508 Route Kms have been electrified up to December 2023 which is 93.83 % of the total Broad-Gauge route (65,556 RKMs) of Indian Railways.Until 2014, 21,801 KM of the broad-gauge network was electrified. INDIA’S METRO RAIL EXPANSION The expansion of India’s Metro Rail system has revolutionized urban commuting, with the network set to increase from 248 km in 2014 to an impressive 945 km by 2024. This significant growth reflects the vital role of Metro Rail in providing ease of transportation to urban populations, with approximately 1 crore passengers benefiting from the system daily. From just 5 cities in 2014, the Metro Rail network has expanded to serve 21 cities across the country, with 919 km of lines under construction in 26 additional cities. Additionally, the introduction of India’s first State of Art Namo Bharat train, operating on the Delhi-Meerut RRTS (Regional Rapid Transit System) corridor, further underscores the nation’s commitment to enhancing regional connectivity and modernizing its transportation infrastructure. ENHANCING INDIA’S AVIATION LANDSCAPE India’s aviation landscape tranformed with the launch of UDAN Scheme and the operationalization of greenfield airports, contributing to enhanced connectivity and accessibility across the country. India’s aviation sector has witnessed significant expansion with 545 routes operationalised under the Ude Desh ka Aam Nagrik (UDAN), aimed at improving air connectivity to underserved regions. Alongside route expansion, 21 Greenfield Airports have been identified for development in the country, out of which 12 have been operationalised reflecting the government’s commitment to enhancing air travel infrastructure. HARNESSING INDIA’S WATERWAYS India’s waterways have seen significant development, with 111 waterways designated as National Waterways (NW) under the National Waterways Act, 2016, showcasing the nation’s commitment to enhancing inland water transportation infrastructure. This recognition aims to boost connectivity, promote trade, and facilitate smoother transportation of goods and passengers across diverse regions of the country. Source: Press Information Bureau

Imports of vegetable oils during November-March decline by 17% volume-wise

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India has compiled the Import data of Vegetable Oils (edible & non-edible) for the month of March 2024. Import of vegetable oils during March 2024 is reported at 1,182,152 tons compared to 1,172,293 tons in March 2023, consisting 1,149,681 tons of edible oils and 32,471 tons of non-edible oils i.e. up by 1%. The overall import of vegetable oils during first five months of the oil year during Nov.’23 to Mar.’24 is reported at 5,830,115 tons compared to 7,060,193 tons during the same period of last year i.e. down by 17%. Palm Oil expensive than Sunflower Oil US$ 70/tons Palm Oil is currently price leader. In last few weeks, thanks to lower production and Stock of Palm Oil in Indonesia & Malaysia, resulted in short supply. Future at BMD, at 3rd Month crossed 4,400 ringit per tons. On 5th April, C & F India CPO was quoted at US $ 1045/tons while Crude Sunflower Oil was cheaper and available at US $975/tons and Crude Soybean Oil at US $ 1025/tons. This lead to shift in demand from Palm Oil to Soft Oils which is also evident, from the fact that India imported a record quantity of Sunflower Oil in last two months, February 297,000 tons and in March received highest monthly quantity of 446,000 tons. The ratio between Palm Oil and Soft oils during March 2024 tilted in favour of soft oils representing nearly 58% vis a vis 42% Palm oil. In March Refined Palm Oil also reduced to 94,000 tons from previous month 125,000 tons. The overall import of refined Palm Oil during November 23 to March 24 in slightly lower at 887,000 tons compared to 989,000 tons same period of last year. Domestic Stock as on 1st Apr. 2024 The stock of edible oils as on 1st Apr.,2024 at various ports is provisionally estimated at 590,000 tons (CPO 165,000 tons, RBD Palmolein 68,000 tons, Degummed Soybean Oil 105,000 tons and Crude Sunflower Oil 252,000 tons) and pipeline stock considering domestic production and consumption reported at 1,725,000 tons. The Total stock as on 1st Apr., 2024 reported at 2,315,000 tons compared to 2,377,000 tons as on 1st Mar., 2024 reduced by 62,000 tons and compared to Apr.’23 down by 11.32 lakh tons. Import of Palm Oil and Soft Oil During Nov.’23-Mar.’24 first five months of oil year 2023-24, Palm Oil import decreased to 3,529,839 tons from 4,399,128 tons, Also Soft Oil import has decreased to 2,235,394 tons from 2,581,234 tons in Nov.’22-Mar.’23,. Share of Palm Oil decreased to 61% from 63% However, Soft Oils share increased to 39% from 37% compared to last year of Nov.’22-Mar.’23. Country-wise Import of Palm & Soft Oil: Indonesia and Malaysia are the major suppliers of RBD Palmolein and Crude Palm Oil to India. During Nov.’23-Mar.’24, Indonesia was major supplier of CPO (1,328,875 tons) and RBD Palmolein (805,980 tons) followed by Malaysia of CPO (1,092,379 tons),RBD Palmolein (80,627 tons) and CPKO (45,928 tons). In case of Crude Soybean Degummed Oil, India mainly imported from Argentina (450,602 tons) followed by Brazil (329,843 tons) while Crude Sunflower Oil mainly imported from Romania (486,789 tons) followed by Russia (490,624 tons), Argentina (165,926 tons) and Ukraine (124,638 tons). Import of Non-edible Oils P.F.A.D. and P.K.F.A.D are the major non-edible oils being imported by the Soap and Ole-chemical industry. Import of Non-edible oils during Nov.’23 to Mar.’24 reported at 64,883 tons compared to 79,828 tons during the same period of last year i.e. down by 19%.

Over 56 crore Ayushman Bharat Health Accounts created

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The government launched the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission to build a comprehensive digital health ecosystem for the country. The mission aims to develop the backbone necessary to support the integrated digital health infrastructure of the country. It provides for assisted and offline mode for the creation of Ayushman Bharat Health Account (ABHA) for areas with limited internet connectivity or hardware. Various applications such as the ABHA app and the Aarogya Setu have also been launched. The mission aims to bridge the gap between different stakeholders of the healthcare ecosystem digitally. The flagship scheme was launched with an outlay of ₹1,600 crore for 5 years from 2021-2022 to 2025-2026. Till February 29, 2024, more than 56.67 crore Ayushman Bharat Health Accounts (ABHA) have been created and over 34.89 crore health records have been linked. The ABHA app is a digital repository of a person’s medical records. Through the app, the users can also connect with the healthcare professionals registered on it. Around 2.35 lakh health facilities have been verified on the Health Facility Registry under ABDM. Of these medical facilities, 69,633 are private, and over 1.66 lakh are government. Moreover, there are over 2.84 lakh health professionals attached to the scheme. The Healthcare Professionals Registry is a comprehensive repository of registered and verified healthcare practitioners across India. ABDM empowers the registry to onboard medical professionals onto India’s digital health ecosystem and connects patients to healthcare providers. ABDM has also taken strides in achieving gender parity. As of February 29, 2024, as many as 27.73 crore women and 29.11 crore men have benefitted from ABHA. Government welfare schemes like the Ayushman Bharat Digital Mission are not only helping to bridge the digital divide but are also helping people get access to healthcare in an efficient, accessible, inclusive, affordable, timely, and safe manner.

Metro rail expansion: Connecting urban India

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Introducing the Metro Rail system has tremendously altered urban commuting patterns. With about 1 crore passengers utilizing the metro daily, it has provided vital ease of commutation to the urban population. Before the advent of the Metro, urban residents grappled with substantial commuting challenges. The rapid growth of the urban population has led to commutation challenges in the past. Alongside persistent traffic congestion, environmental pollution has posed significant health hazards to residents. Moreover, the then-existing public transport options often proved financially burdensome for the general public. However, the introduction of the Metro Rail system has revolutionized urban transportation and provided an efficient and cost-effective solution along with mitigating adverse environmental impact. In 2017, the Union Cabinet chaired by Prime Minister Narendra Modi approved a new Metro Rail Policy that seeks to enable the realization of growing metro rail aspirations of a large number of cities in a responsible manner. Before 2014, 248 km of Metro Rail was operational in 5 cities. In the last 10 years, 697 km have been added to Metro Rail Network across the country. In 2024, about 945 km of metro rail lines are operational in 21 cities and 919 km is under construction in 26 different cities. Introduction of Namo Bharat Train India’s first State of Art Namo Bharat train with a design speed of 180 km/h and operational speed of 160 km/h has been introduced on a priority section between Sahibabad to Duhai Depot on the Delhi- Meerut RRTS (Regional Rapid Transit System) corridor. European Train Control System (ETCS) The World’s first state-of-the-art ETCS level II with Hybrid level-III radio-based train signaling system on LTE backbone has been introduced on Namo Bharat trains running on the priority corridor of Delhi- Meerut RRTS enhancing passenger safety to a new level. Platform Screen Door For improved safety and to reduce the risk of accidents, PSD has been jointly developed by Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) with the National Capital Region Transport Corporation (NCRTC). National Common Mobility Card One Nation-One card i.e. NCMC work on all NCMC-enabled transport systems in the country. QR based Ticketing The QR-based ticketing system has facilitated booking of tickets from mobile-based apps. Unmanned Train Operations For improved efficiency and quality of service including better utilisation of resources, Unmanned Train Operation is functional in Pink and Magenta Line of Delhi Metro Rail Corporation. Indigenous Automatic Train Supervision System India’s first Indigenously built Automatic Train Supervision System developed by the combined efforts of DMRC and Bharat Electronics Limited (BEL) has been implemented on the Red Line of the Delhi Metro.

Unicorns Decline In India: HURUN REPORT

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The number of unicorns -- companies worth over USD 1 billion -- in the country has declined for the first time in four years to 67, a report said on Tuesday. The country, however, maintained the tag of being the third biggest hub for unicorns across the world, according to the Hurun Global Unicorn Index 2024. Grappling with a slew of issues, edtech company Byju’s, which was valued at over USD 22 billion a year back, dropped off from the list, meaning it is worth less than USD 1 billion at present. The drop in valuation for Byju’s made it the biggest dip across any startup in the world, as per the Hurun report. The 2008-founded Byju’s lost its coveted position as it restructured operations and cut costs after increasing losses, the report said, adding, “the former unicorn missed its revenue target for the financial year ending in March last year and is working to resolve a USD 1.2 billion debt”. Commenting on Byju’s, Hurun Report chairman and chief researcher Rupert Hoogewerf said that some startups indeed fail and receive massive media attention in the process, but added that such companies are vital to an economy. Food delivery platform Swiggy and fantasy sports focused Dream11 are the most valuable unicorns from India valued at USD 8 billion each, and are followed by Razorpay at USD 7.5 billion, the report said. The two top-valued Indian unicorns are ranked 83rd in the list globally, while Razorpay is at 94th position. There were some additions in the list of unicorns like the artificial intelligence platform Krutrim, Hurun India’s chief researcher Anas Rahman Junaid said. However, the same year has seen 60 AI-focused startups from the US and 37 from China break into the unicorn club, he said. Rahman said the overall drop in the number of Indian companies in the list of 1,453 unicorns is due to lack of investments into startups despite handsome gains on the equity indices. He also added that a tendency to start a company outside the country among founders has also dented the prospects for India, pointing out that founders hailing from India started 109 unicorns outside of the country, compared to 67 within the country. This led to the addition of 24 unicorns to take the overall number of companies valued at over USD 1 billion to 340 during the year. The unicorn list was led by 2012-founded Bytedance, owner of Tiktok, with a valuation of USD 220 billion, and was followed by billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX at USD 180 billion and Microsoft-backed OpenAI worth USD 100 billion.

Ujjwala Yojana: Igniting change, empowering lives with clean cooking fuel

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In May 2016, Government ofV India launched Pradhan Mantri Ujjwala Yojana (PMUY), a social welfare scheme supporting Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s vision of a smoke-free rural India. The key objective of the scheme is to replace harmful cooking fuels such as coal and firewood with clean LPG to protect women & children’s health by reducing indoor smoke pollution. The scheme provides a completely free LPG connection, including the first refill and a stove. The scheme also offers a targeted subsidy of ₹300 per 14.2 kg cylinder for up to 12 refills per year (pro-rated for 5 kg connections) to all PMUY consumers, further easing the financial burden and promoting clean cooking fuel adoption. PMUY initially aimed to provide 8 crore free LPG connections to poor households, achieving this target in September 2019. To reach more families, PMUY 2.0 was launched in August 2021, distributing an additional 1.6 crore connections by January 2022. With the government approving another 75 lakh connections, the scheme’s current target is 10.35 crore. ACHIEVEMENTS (As of March 14, 2024) • A total of 10.31 Crore LPG connections have been released under the scheme so far. • Per capita consumption of PMUY Beneficiaries has increased from 3.01 Refills per annum (in terms of 14.2 Kg refill) during FY 2019-20, to 3.71 refills during FY 2022-23 and further to 3.8 refills in 2023-24 (till October 2023). • Active LPG consumers doubled from 14.52 crore in 2014 to 32.17 crore in February 2024. TOP STATES IN PMUY IMPLEMENTATION Leading the charge in PMUY implementation are, in descending order, Uttar Pradesh, West Bengal, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. These states have made significant progress in providing clean and affordable LPG connections to their citizens, contributing significantly to the overall success of the scheme. The PM Ujjwala Yojana has made a big difference in the lives of people in India, especially for women in rural areas. Switching to cleaner cooking gas (LPG) has helped cut down indoor air pollution, making people healthier, especially kids and women who spend a lot of time around kitchen smoke. This switch means less time and effort is spent on collecting firewood and more on things that enable women to allocate time to economically productive activities. It also helps our forests by reducing the need to cut down trees for fuel, making our environment healthier. Cooking is safer too, with fewer accidents like burns from open fires. Plus, with better cooking options, families can make nutritious meals, thereby contributing to better health outcomes for families. Source: Press Information Bureau, Government of India

Futures investors help drive gold prices to NEW HIGH IN MARCH

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Gold prices scaled new heights in March, finishing 8.1% higher at US$2,214/oz by the end of the month.A flat US dollar ensured that the strong return was reflected in all the major currencies, according to World Gold Council’s monthly report. The rally that started in early March left some commentators scratching their heads as to the cause. Our Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggested Risk and Momentum factors were behind the move higher. Particularly instrumental was gold’s implied volatility, which shot up during March — as it did during September 2022, March 2023 and October 2023, although this time it was not accompanied by a rise in bonds’ implied volatility (MOVE index) and therefore more suggestive of a gold-specific punt. In our Momentum bucket, COMEX managed money futures net positions had their third strongest month since 2019 on both short covering and fresh longs and we saw flows into gold ETFs in all regions bar Europe. The Geopolitical Risk (GPR) index moved higher again, as geopolitical tensions convulsed across several fronts. From a macro perspective - despite heady markets and a soft Fed - there was an important crossover in US data surprises suggesting stagflation risks might be on the rise again, a supportive development for gold prices. US economic surprises and the gold price Looking forward • An unprecedented disconnect has appeared between gold prices and global gold ETF flows, driving a wedge between comparisons of the current all-time-high (ATH) to that of the 2011 spike • We find that US gold ETFs as a share of total US ETFs2 is considerably lower than it was 13 years ago and below what many would consider an optimal weighting. • The fundamentals underpinning the current rally include growing geopolitical risk, steady central bank buying and resilient demand for jewellery and bars and coins. • Together with the prospect of lower interest rates ahead the suggestion is that ETFs have missed the rally and are now under-allocated. • India, the world’s largest democracy, goes to the polls in April. The market will see little activity during the six election week period. To boot, a diminished wedding season on the other side suggests that, all else equal, we should not expect to see any pent-up demand from Indian consumers in June. ATH in price ≠ ATH in ownership With gold reaching all-time highs the default assumption for most would be that positioning is likely crowded, as it appeared to be in 2011 for example, but that is not the case. When assessing gold ETFs as a percentage of total US ETF AUM we found their percentage share is at the fourth lowest level since inception. While past performance does not guarantee future returns, it is worth noting that the last time positioning reached these levels gold embarked on a substantial move higher with considerable support from global gold ETFs. Similarly, we have found that open interest in the futures market resembles trends that we see across the ETF space; gold’s open interest is well below that of a set of futures across equities, bonds and commodities. Despite its high price, we currently view gold to be under-owned, and unlike previous rallies this time it does not look as “toppy”. Fact versus fiction Last month’s news cycle was laser-focused on the amount of capital flowing into bitcoin (BTC) ETFs, and some of that narrative centred on capital leaving gold ETFs for BTC-backed funds. We see no data to support this narrative, and are not alone in our thinking. • Outflows from global gold ETFs – and particularly EU-listed funds – began long before BTC-ETFs launched anddid not accelerate once they had. • To boot, these were less pronounced in US dollar flowsterms. After all, investors sensibly allocate on the basis ofcapital invested and not on the basis of ounces acquired. • And over recent weeks, AUM growth in BTC and US goldETF products has been strongly correlated. We view outflows from gold ETFs as speculative rather than structural and inflows into Bitcoin ETFs as speculative rather than structural, supported by findings from our survey work. We don’t know if we are witnessing a turning point. However, the evidence suggests there are more potential buyers than sellers. We also view recent North American inflows and a softening in European outflows as hinting at a turning point. The world’s largest democracy is set to vote On 19 April India begins its seven-phase general election that will last 44 days and conclude on 1 June.5 Gold consumption tends to be impacted during the election season as there is heightened scrutiny on the movement of cash, gold, and jewellery. Anecdotal evidence suggests that the various industry stakeholders (bullion dealers, manufacturers, and jewellers) limit their transactions during this time. Data shows that gold consumption has fallen during three of the last four general election periods with a decline in demand for both jewellery (comprising over 70% of Indian consumer demand) and bar and coin. We did see a rise in gold consumption during the 2019 election season, but this was linked to the higher number of auspicious days and a softening of gold prices. The bottom line here is that political events likely will have gold price repercussions this year. Despite the country’s size and importance, India’s election is likely to be somewhat of a damp squib for gold demand. In summary Gold is at an all-time-high and is getting attention. But assets at such levels are challenging for investors who think they may have missed the boat. However, our analysis suggests that gold is currently well supported by fundamentals, and the low participation from US investors in particular augurs well for the rally to continue, in contrast to what we saw in 2011. Alongside gold’s records, we’ve also seen all-time highs in the prices of many other assets including global equities.6 Gold’s share of assets is low not only from the unrelenting push higher in the prices of other assets but the large issuance of financial securities. Gold’s physical supply constraints means that its price has to do the heavy lifting to maintain a sensible share of assets. We’ve not yet seen this materialise, which is encouraging.

Auto retail sales post modest growth of 3.14 % in March

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Despite election uncertainties, economic concerns and intense competition, the two wheeler and 3W segments showcased positive sentiment in March retail sales, especially in the premium and EV segments even as the Indian auto retail sector posted a modest growth of 3.14 per cent yoy in March 2024, with passenger vehicles sales showing a decline of 6 per cent, tractors showing a decline of 3 per cent and commercial vehicles facing a slump of 6 per cent respectively. However, in FY24, auto retail sales saw sector-wide growth, leading to a 10 per cent yoy growth, with the 2W segment registering growth rate of 9 per cent, 3W segment growing by 49 per cent, PVs by 8.45 per cent, tractors by 8 per cent and commercial vehicles by 5 per cent respectively, the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) said on Monday. Heading into FY’25, FADA projects growth amidst a mix of optimism and challenges. The vehicle retail data of FADA for March’24 and FY’24 shows a surge in electric vehicle sales amidst expiration of the FAME 2 subsidy on 31 March with the 2W electric vehicles share jumping to 9.12 per cent for the first time. There was positive sentiment in 3W segment which demonstrated growth driven by the increasing acceptance of EVs, showing an optimistic trend despite potential challenges from election uncertainties and policy changes. Manish Raj Singhania, notes that the 2W segment demonstrated resilience and adaptability, with EV sales surging due to the expiration of the FAME 2 subsidy on March 31st. “This led to a notable boost in the 2W-EV market share to 9.12 per cent. “Positive market sentiment was supported by seasonal events, improved vehicle supply, and financial incentives. Despite facing market volatility and intense competition, the industry is strategically evolving, particularly in the premium and EV categories, signalling a bright future.” said Singhania. In FY24, auto retail sales saw sector-wide growth, leading to a 10 per cent yoy growth, with the 2W segment registering growth rate of 9 per cent, 3W segment growing by 49 per cent, PVs by 8.45 per cent, tractors by 8 per cent and commercial vehicles by 5 per cent respectively. The 2W segment benefited by enhanced model availability, the introduction of new products and a positive market sentiment, alongside the burgeoning EV market and strategic premium segment launches. The growth in the 3W segment was driven by the introduction of cost-effective CNG fuel options, new EV models, expanding city landscapes, demand in last mile mobility in urban centres resulting in strong demand, marking a new industry benchmark. The PV segment’s growth was propelled by improved vehicle availability, a compelling model mix and significant contributions from the SUV segment, which now claims 50 per cent market share. The auto is projecting an optimistic outlook in FY’25, focusing on new product launches, especially in EVs and leveraging economic growth, favourable government policies and expectation of good monsoon to fuel demand, despite facing challenges like competition and the need for strategic market engagement. The 3W segment showed an encouraging sales trend hitting an all-time high retail, driven by the growing acceptance of EVs. The introduction of EV autos and loaders positively impacted the retail environment. Although faced with election-related uncertainties and concerns over policy changes, such as free bus travel for women, the overall outlook for the sector remains upbeat, supported by the quality of vehicles and strong market demand. The PV sector encountered challenges, with a m-o-m decrease of 2 per cent and a yoy fall of 6 per cent The downturn was influenced by heavy discounting and selective financing further affected by economic worries and the electoral climate. Nonetheless, positives such as improved vehicle availability, increased stock levels and new model launches did stimulate demand in certain areas. The impact of election activities and changes in festival dates also played a role in sales dynamics. The near-term outlook of FADA notes concern over decline in consumer sentiment among urban Indians and warns that the automotive sector faces a nuanced challenge. Given the continued inflationary trend without any relief in finance rates, these prospective buyers may continue to hesitate. Heading into FY’25, the auto industry is poised for growth amidst a mix of optimism and challenges. The excitement around new product launches, particularly electric vehicles, sets a forward-looking tone. Manufacturers are gearing up with better supply chains and an array of models to meet diverse consumer demands. Economic growth, favourable government policies and an anticipated good monsoon are expected to fuel demand, especially in rural areas and the commercial vehicle sector, which is closely linked to infrastructure projects and economic activity.

RBI’s bank lending survey for Q4 of 2023-24

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Today, the Reserve Bank released the results of 27th round of its quarterly Bank Lending Survey1, which captures qualitative assessment and expectations of major scheduled commercial banks on credit parameters (viz., loan demand as well as terms and conditions of loans) for major economic sectors2. The latest round of the survey, which was conducted during Q4:2023-24, collected senior loan officers’ assessment of credit parameters for Q4:2023-24 and their expectations for Q1, Q2 and Q3 of 2024-25. Highlights: A. Assessment for Q4:2023-24 • Bankers assessed sustained loan demand across major sectors during Q4:2023-24 (Chart 1 and Table 1). • Respondents reported continuation of easy loan terms and conditions in Q4:2023-24, though they assessed relative prudence for retail/personal loans (Table 2). B. Expectations for Q1:2024-25 • Bankers expressed continued optimism on overall loan demand conditions during Q1:2024-25, albeit a tad below that in the previous quarter, which was a seasonal peak (Table 1). • Overall, easy loan terms and conditions are expected to prevail during the quarter (Table 2). C. Expectations for Q2 and Q3:2024-25 • Bankers remain upbeat on loan demand across major sectors up to end- 2024 (Table 3). • On a net basis, easy terms and conditions for loans are expected to continue over the next three quarters, with a majority of bankers anticipating ‘no change’.

Reserve Bank MPC preview: What to expect

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Yet another unexciting MPC meet is lined up this week. “We think the RBI’s tone will slowly tiptoe to ‘Gracklish’ from the usual ‘Hawk-Dove’ signaling, implying a non-committal stance and limited definite forward guidance ahead,” says a research report ‘RBI MPC Preview’ by Emkay Global Financial Services. The fluidity of global narratives and policy repricing, in conjunction with the near-term problem-of-plenty on INR/bonds, could make it arduous for the RBI to find a balance in its policy biases, according to the report. “While the upcoming policy may not see material changes in macro assessment by RBI, issues like 1) case & timing of policy pivot/stance change, 2) factors influencing liquidity management ahead and, of course, 3) assessing which part of the yield curve has the maximum juice, etc would be key for markets. While bull-steepening looks to be a popular trade, consistent repricing of Fed cuts could spill over into the RBI’s reaction function and will be cyclically noisy for bonds/FX,” it said. What’s moved since the last MPC in Feb-24 The comfortable policy tone in Feb-24 was helped by healthy growth-inflation and external financing dynamics, topped by low volatility in global risk assets, as ‘Goldilocks’ became the dominant narrative. There has been little change in domestic dynamics since: a) Healthy growth and in-inflation prints, with headline CPI poised to hit sub-4% briefly in Jul-Aug ’24. b) Comfortable external sector financing ahead, with FY24E/25E BoP headed for a USD38bn/USD20-30bn surplus. But there now appear cracks in the Goldilocks narrative (soft/no landing + rate cuts), wherein the global growth tale has not mellowed, but Fed rate-cut hopes are becoming moving goalposts again (Fed funds futures now attaching under-50% probability for a June cut). Meanwhile, Brent is up 15% since early Feb-24, and global supply-chain pressures have tightened with the protracted Red Sea crisis (albeit transport costs play a marginal role in global cost pressures). Will 2024 see the RBI pivot on rates? “We have long maintained that the RBI policy has been somewhat pegged to the Fed, specifically over the last two years, even as it formally targeted inflation. This seems fair, as external dynamics have been fluid, implying that the policy prerogative needs to be flexible for ensuring financial stability. The policy narrative has been explicitly domestic, but swift policy turns/pivots in the last two years have been purely influenced by the global cause (recall a few key pivots: Apr-22 – stance change followed by start of the rate hiking cycle; Apr-23 – surprise pause; Oct-23 – OMO sales communication). This suggests that when needed, the aim of financial stability may even precede inflation management,” said the report. Will 2024 see a Fed cut? Emkay’s calculations suggest that key DMs would be lumbering into the last mile of disinflation which will stall at an elevated ~3.5% by end-2024 – absent a recession. Markets have already priced-in a more gradual pace of Fed easing. To date, this has not yet spilled over into EM CB pricing, including that of the RBI, but that could change soon. “While we feel it is time to reassess our faith in the guidance of central banks, we think the Fed may be revisiting its mid-1990s strategy of ‘opportunistic disinflation’ – implying a shallower cut cycle and a real scenario of ‘no cut’ in 2024,” it said. But can the RBI precede the Fed? Emkay sees no merit in this. 1) Unless delayed Fed action comes with an immediate negative growth shock, we do not see a crash in EM risk assets, but there may be a little froth. The RBI would want to avoid adding to the noise, incl. that related to stance change. 2) INR/India bonds have a lot going for them fundamentally and could remain a cherrypicked play in EMs, albeit with RBI still saddled with managing the problem of plenty, esp. in 1HFY25. Consistent foreign flows + easy or surplus system liquidity could lead to easier financial conditions = de facto mild rate cut, unless intervened/sterilized by the RBI. It would be pointless to add more to the bounty. So RBI may be pegged to the Fed on rate actions, while still ensuring operative call money rates not going below repo (VRRR may stay the primary tool, but OMO sales could be used too, hinging on gauging the nature of liquidity/other global dynamics.

Booming real estate results in higher recoveries of stressed assets: Study

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Recovery in key infrastructure sectors has cast a positive impact even on the stressed assets in these industries as is reflected in marked improvement in realisation of such assets in real estate, roads, power and steel, according to an ASSOCHAM- CRISIL Ratings study. Recoveries in real estate topped the list, followed by the road sector thanks to several policy interventions, turnaround in these industries as also an overall positive macroeconomic. ‘’Real estate is seen to recover 77-82 per of the acquired debt (by asset reconstruction companies) over eight years followed by highway tolling with a recovery of 58-63 per cent,’’ the study noted. As a result of high recoveries, the debt under the real estate sector is being bought at a very low discount amidst rising investor interest due to the boom in the sector. ‘’Along with several macro positives, the factors leading to a substantial improvement in recoveries in vital infrastructure sectors include a transformative role played by the Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code, though a lot of ground needs to be covered in terms of speeding up the judicial process for the IBC cases,”, ASSOCHAM Secretary General Mr Deepak Sood said. Commenting on the ASSOCHAM-CRISIL Ratings report, Mr Sood said the recoveries in the stressed assets has resulted in a marked improvement in the banks’ balance sheets with the non-performing assets, touching decadal lows in several banks. As in the real estate industry, the stressed sectors in the power sector have the potential to recover 43-48 per cent of the total debt acquired by the ARCs. “The positive trajectory can be attributed to escalating demand for power, favourable regulatory changes such as coal auctions through the Shakti scheme, ongoing restructuring initiatives and strategic investments,’’ the paper pointed out. Likewise in the roads including highways, the improvement is taking place due to several measures by the government to develop the public infrastructure ecosystem. These include extension of concession period for build-operate--transfers-toll operators, release of retention money to the extent of work done etc. According to the study, stressed road assets have the potential to recover 58-63 per cent of the total debt acquired. Referring to the journey of IBC, the ASSOCHAM-CRISIL Ratings report said the insolvency and bankruptcy law has transformed the credit culture from the ‘debtor in control’ to ‘ creditor in control’ paradigm’. It has undoubtedly tilted the power equation in favour of creditors from debtors and improved the credit culture’’.

Estimating food demand and supply in the future

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

According to a report by the Niti Aayog Working Group, food demand comrises the direct demand as food and the other uses such as seed, feed, and raw material for processing and other industries.The availability of food comprises domestic production, carry-over stock and imports, says the report titled ‘Crops Husbandary, Agriculture Inputs, Demand and Supply.’ At any point in time, the demand and supply should be equal, and any deviation from the equilibrium is corrected by price changes. In case of demand being more (less) than supply of a commodity, its price is expected to rise (fall) in the absence of any market intervention. The following procedure has been adopted to project food demand and supply. i. Construct a food balance sheet and estimate components of demand and supply for the base year, i.e. 2011-12. ii. Estimate direct demand for human consumption and indirect demand as seed, feed, wastages and other uses for 2019-20. iii. Compare the projected demand for 2019-20 with the actual availability, and validate accuracy of the estimates. iv. Project crop area and yield of crops, and derive production estimates for future, i.e., for 2025-26, 2030-31, 2035-36, 2040-41, and 2047-48. Plug these estimates into the demand core system for estimating the demand for seed and feed. v. Develop future scenarios and project the total demand and production under these scenarios. vi. Externally validate projected demand by comparing it with normative demand. vii. Estimate demand-supply balance to estimate potential surplus or short fall. Direct demand for human consumption is the largest component of the total food demand. The HCE surveys provide estimates of the food consumed by the resident households. The latest HCE data is available for 2011-12; hence it has been taken as the base for projections. The unavailability of the latest estimates, helped in testing the model for its accuracy by comparing the projected food demand for 2019-20 with the actual availability. Further, the projected food demand is compared with the normative requirement for external validation of the projections. Food balance sheet for 2011-12 The food balance sheet provides a snapshot of the sources of food and its utilization (Table 1). The availability of a commodity depends on its production, net export and change in stocks. In 2011-12, India produced 261 million tonnes of foodgrains, of which 12 million tonnes were exported and 6 million tonnes were stocked (public). India also imported 3.5 million tonnes of pulses. Thus, the net availability of foodgrains was 246 million tonnes. The production and net availability of different food commodities are given in Table 1. Including other foods, a total of 669 million tonnes of food was available in 2011-12. The estimates of utilization of food commodities are not readily available, except per capita household home food consumption. The utilization pattern of different food commodities for food, seed, feed, wastages, and other uses has been derived using the available information. Other food uses include raw material for food processing and other industries. These are estimated as residuals, that is, the difference between actual availability and consumption as food, seed, feed and wastages. Accordingly, 61 % of the total available food in 2011-12 was consumed directly as food (Table 1). Estimating components of food demand The household food demand comprises the demand for home food and food away from home (FAFH), the demand for feed, seed, wastages and other uses. Seed demand: Farmers use either purchased seeds or seed saved from previous harvests. The seed demand from a home-produced crop depends on its cropped area, seed rate and seed replacement rate. Area under crops has been compiled from the Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare (MoAFW). The average seed rate of a crop at national level is weighted average of its seed rate in major producing states with cropped area as weight. The state-wise seed rate has been taken from the cost of cultivation (CoC) scheme for 2011-12. The seed replacement rate (SRR) is the rate at which farmers replace home-grown seeds with certified seeds. The SRR differs across crops, and it has increased over time, meaning a decline in the demand for home-grown seeds. The estimated seed demand for different commodities is presented in and Table 1. Feed demand: Feed consists of green and dry fodders, and concentrates, in varying proportion from 40 to 80% for crop residues, 10 to 30% for green fodder and 10 to 30% for concentrates (Roy et al. 2019). Green and dry fodders, obtained from arable lands, common property lands (permanent pastures, grazing land, etc.), crop residues and by-products, are the main source of energy for animals. Concentrate feed consist of oilseed cakes, crushed pulses, grains, wheat and rice brans, mineral mixtures, etc. The ICAR-National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology (NIANP) estimated demand for concentrates at 56.2 million tonnes for 2011-12, of which grains constituted 30%. Accordingly, 16.9 million tonnes of grains were used as feed. Further, feedgrain comprised 53% of maize, 5% of nutri-cereals, and 2% of rice, wheat and pulses. The contributions of crops to feedgrains in 2011-12 are presented in Table 5.1. Wastages: Post-harvest loss considered as a component of the total demand. The loss differs across food commodities, depending on their perishability and post-harvest processes of conversion of raw material into final product. The ICAR-Central Institute of Post-Harvest Engineering and Technology (CIPHET) and the NABARD Consultancy Services (NABCONS) have estimated post-harvest loss for various agricultural commodities (Jha et al, 2015; NABCONS, 2022), which are given in Appendix 5.2. Utilizing the loss coefficient, the total output loss in crop has been estimated for 2011-12 (Table 5.1). Home food and food away from home (FAFH) demand: Food cooked within household premises constitutes the largest component of food demand. The household demand for home food has been estimated using the per capita consumption reported in type-II (mixed recall reference period) schedule of the HCE survey, 2011-12 (Appendix 5.3). The HCE survey also provides expenditure on meals consumed outside the home. In 2011-12, of the total food expenditure, 8.5% was towards the processed foods and the foods consumed outside home. The cost of food cooked at home is approximately 30% of the cost incurred outside. Therefore, to estimate food consumed outside home, the expenditure share of the outside food has been adjusted by a factor of 0.3. Accordingly, the food away from home accounted for 2.59% of the total food consumed. This proportion is close to the estimate of 3.7% on foods taken in restaurants as provided by the Consumer Pyramid Surveys conducted by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy

UPI transactions up 56% in H2 2023: Report

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Worldline on Wednesday unveiled its India Digital Payments Report for H2 2023 (July-December 2023) which captures a series of noteworthy trends and shifts within the digital payments landscape. The report reveals that UPI remains dominant in the payment system and is rapidly expanding its reach beyond India. The report said number of UPI transactions has seen a significant uptrend in H2 2023 growing at 56% YoY with the volume being at 65.77 billion from 42.09 billion in H2 2022, while the value of transactions during the same time frame surged by 44% from Rs 69.36 trillion to Rs 99.68 trillion. The noteworthy figure remains the average ticket size (ATS), which declined by 8% from Rs 1648 to Rs 1515. The ATS persistently follows a downward trend, indicating a more profound integration of UPI, particularly in smaller or micro transactions. This decline is predominantly propelled by the surge in person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions. Ramesh Narasimhan, Chief Executive Officer - India, Worldline, said, “The year 2023 witnessed some significant milestones in the payments ecosystem. UPI maintains its position as the uncontested frontrunner, buoyed by substantial expansion in mobile transactions. This trend underscores users’ growing confidence and familiarity with smartphone-based payment methods. The proliferation of Point of Sale terminals has reached unprecedented levels, concurrent with the ascendance of mobile payments as a dominant transaction avenue. This underscores the necessity for FinTechs to adjust to a diverse array of payment channels”. Key findings Payments Acceptance Infrastructure Between July 2022 and December 2023, there was a notable increase in the payment’s acceptance infrastructure channels. Point of Sale (PoS) terminals expanded by 26% to reach 8.56 million. Private Sector banks dominated the space with 73% market share while Public Sector Banks accounted for 18%. Payments and foreign banks have 8% and 1% market share respectively. Bharat QR (BQR) usage grew by 32% to 5.96 million. The standout, as expected, is UPI QRs which grew by 57% to 317 million. Top PoS Deployers Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Bank, State Bank Of India, RBL Bank, Paytm Payments Bank, IndusInd Bank, Kotak Mahindra Bank, Yes Bank, and Canara Bank accounted for 94% of terminals deployed as of December 2023. P2P and P2M Transactions: UPI transactions consist of person-to-person (P2P) and person-to-merchant (P2M) transactions. While both have clocked good growth numbers, the growth in P2M transactions is particularly remarkable. P2M transactions witnessed a remarkable 77% increase in volume, rising from 21.84 billion in H2 2022 to 38.73 billion in H2 2023, while the value escalated from INR 15.66 trillion H2 2022 to INR 25.43 trillion in H2 2023 marking a growth of 62% YoY. P2P transactions surged from 20.25 billion in H2 2022 to 27.04 billion in H2 2023, marking a 34% YoY increase. Concurrently, the value of P2P transactions grew from INR 53.69 trillion to INR 74.24 trillion, reflecting a 38% increase. Average Ticket Size: The average ticket size (ATS) of all UPI transactions in H2 2022 was Rs 1648 compared to Rs 1515 in H2 2023, an 8% decrease. For P2P transactions, the ATS saw a 4% YoY growth from Rs 2649 to Rs 2745. During the same period, the ATS of P2M transactions decreased from Rs 720 to INR 656, representing a 9% drop. This gives a clear indication that reduction in overall ATS has been driven by P2M transactions which is a good trend as the future of UPI is P2M transactions. Top UPI apps, Remitter and Beneficiary banks: In terms of volume and value, PhonePe, Google Pay and Paytm were the dominant UPI app players. In December 2023 the 3 apps accounted 95.4% of all the transactions in terms of volume which was 94.8% in December 2022, while in terms of value they together comprised 93% in December 2023 which was 92.2% in the same period last year. The dominance is likely a blend of early mover advantage and the convenience, features, discounts, and deals provided by the apps. The top 5 remitter and beneficiary banks (in December 2023) are the below and are being driven by PhonePe and Google Pay; Paytm rides on the rails of Paytm Payments Bank rails while the other 2 use the rails of other banks. Credit, Debit and Prepaid cards The total number of cards in circulation has shown a modest growth in the past one year. In December 2023, the total number of cards were 1.384 billion, a 6% YoY increase. Credit cards witnessed the highest upsurge YoY basis with a growth of 21% at 97.9 million. This was followed by Prepaid cards with a YoY growth of 13% at 325 million. Debit cards witnessed a minuscule growth of 2% at 960.8million. The top 5 issuers of credit cards were HDFC, SBI, ICICI, Axis and Kotak respectively and the top 5 issuers of debit cards were SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, Union Bank of India and HDFC Bank. 71% of credit cards were issued by private sector banks and 24% were by public sector banks while 65% of debit cards were issued by public sector banks and 24% by private sector banks. The balance was issued by payment banks, small finance banks and foreign banks. The distinction between private sector banks dominating credit card issuance and public sector banks dominating debit card issuance is clear suggesting the risk appetite among the former is higher while the latter is focused on providing accounts to a larger section of the population including the unbanked. In contrast to card issuance, the volume of card transactions in H2 2023 declined to 3.70 billion, marking a 7% decrease from H2 2022. This decline was predominantly propelled by debit card transactions, whereas credit card transactions experienced an upswing. Debit card transactions in H2 2023 were recorded at 1.15 billion witnessing a decline of 34% YoY. Credit Card transactions on the other hand were at 1.78 billion with a YoY upsurge of 21% when compared to H2 2022. The value of card transactions in H2 2023 was INR 12.66 trillion, an increase of 13% from H2 2022. This growth was largely supported by credit cards. Credit card transactions value in was INR 9.39 trillion, a strong rise of 11% from H2 2022 while, during the same period, debit cards transaction value was INR 3.02 trillion, a fall of 16% and prepaid cards were INR 241 billion, a fall of 30%. Credit card have been consistently on the rise; in H1 2022, credit transactions increased by an impressive 30.5% YoY. The average ticket size (ATS) for all cards was INR 2742, a 10% YoY increase. This growth was primarily driven by debit card ATS growth. Credit cards ATS in H2 2023 was INR 5276, an 8% growth and prepaid cards ATS was INR 310, a 28% decrease and debit cards ATS was INR 2642, a strong 24% growth. Like the previous half, the growth in debit card ATS suggests that while debit card transactions volume fell, there was still a significant population that used debit cards for their purchases and that ensured that transactions value did not fall parallelly PoS terminals in H2 2023 recorded a total card transaction volume of 2.18 billion growing at 8% YoY. During this period credit card transactions were 925 million with an impressive growth of 14%, while Debit cards recorded a degrowth of 29% YoY at 828.75 million. The total value of card transactions in H2 2023 for online purchases surged by 24% to INR 7.34 trillion compared to H2 2022. During the same period, the value of credit card transactions soared by 40% to INR 6.12 trillion, while debit card transactions decreased by 18% to INR 1.03 trillion, and prepaid card transactions dropped by 32% to INR 190 billion. This indicates that UPI transactions are increasingly dominating other channels, both at Point of Sale (PoS) and online. However, credit card expenditures are rising due to heightened consumption of higher value goods and services. Top of Form Mobile Payments Mobile payments, which are transactions done using mobile phone apps, have seen solid growth. A significant number of these transactions are UPI-based but could be a whole host of payments using bank accounts etc. The volume of mobile transactions in H2 2023 was 62.95 billion compared to 45.58 billion in H2 2022, a 38% increase while the value of mobile transactions in H2 2023 was INR 152.33 trillion compared to INR 116 trillion in H2 2022, a 31% increase. Another comparison shows the real growth; between January 2023 and December 2023, the volume was up 34% while the value was up 33%. The ATS of mobile app transactions in H2 2023 was INR 2419.60, a 5% reduction compared to H2 2023. What this really shows is how Indians have taken to their mobile phones to make payments for multiple goods and services using multiple channels. The growth in this channel also indicates how stable this method of payment will be and how it will continue to power the future of payments in India. Electronic Toll Collection Electronic Toll Collection (ETC) has significantly transformed the way tolls are paid on the nation’s roads, extending to parking plazas and various other applications. Drivers nationwide can attest to the convenience it brings to road travel, and the consistent uptake of this technology is evident in the data. The number of tags issued has grown from 55.94 million in July 2022 to 81.24 million in December 2023, a 45% growth. In terms of volume, transaction in H2 2023 were 1.89 billion compared to 1.67 billion in H2 2022, a 13% growth while the value of ETC transactions in H2 2023 was INR 319.48 billion, a 20% increase when compared to H2 2022 (INR 267 billion). (Note: this report is for H2 2023 and therefore before the RBI action on Paytm Payments Bank.)

Energy reserves and potential for generation

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Energy reserves are part of the energy resources that, based on technical, economic and other relevant (e.g., environmental) considerations, can be recovered and for which extraction is justified. The exact definition of reserves depends on the kind of resources in focus. Globally, the United Nations Framework Classification for Fossil Energy and Mineral Reserves and Resources (UNFC 2009) provides a scheme for classifying and evaluating these resources according to three dimensions, namely, their economic and social viability, the field project status and feasibility, and the geological knowledge about these resources. System of Environmental Economic Accounting (SEEA)-Energy groups the detailed categories of UNFC into three aggregated classes characterizing the commercial recoverability of the resources as follows: Categorization of mineral and energy resources relevant for energy Class A: Commercially recoverable resources Class B: Potentially commercially recoverable resources Class C: Non – commercial and other known deposits Thus, primary energy production relies on the capture or extraction of fuels or energy from natural energy flows, the biosphere and natural reserves of fossil fuels within the national territory in a form suitable for use mostly when extraction and sale have been confirmed to be economically viable. A good measure of the overall resource and the geographical and technical potential of what can be produced is also often represented by the potential in case of renewable power. India has one of the largest proven coal reserves in the world. However, one of the objectives of India’s energy mix has been to promote the production of energy through the use of renewable energy sources in accordance with climate, environment and macroeconomic considerations in order to reduce dependence on fossil fuels, ensure security of supply and reduce emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. Highlights • India has rich deposits of coal in the world. Total estimated reserves of coal as on 01- 04-2022 were 361.41 billion tonnes, an addition of 9.29 billion tonnes over the corresponding period of previous year. In terms of percentage, there has been a growth of 2.64% in the total estimated coal reserves during the year 2022-23 over 2021- 22 • The top three states with highest coal reserves in India are Odisha, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, which account for approximately 69% of the total coal reserves in the country. • Out of the total reserves in the country, proven reserves i.e. those available for extraction in terms of i.e. economically viability, feasibility study and geologically exploration level, account for almost 52% of the total. Total estimated of lignite as on 01-04-2022 were 46.20 billion tonnes, an addition of 0.19 billion tonnes over the corresponding period of previous year. In terms of percentage, there has been a growth of 0.40% in the total estimated lignite reserves during the year 2022-23 over 2021-22 (Table 1.1A). The highest reserves of lignite are found in the state of Tamil Nadu. Out of the total Lignite reserves in the country, proven reserves account for almost only 16% of the total. The estimated reserves of crude oil in India as on 01-04-2022 stood at 653.02 million tonnes against 591.92 million tonnes in the previous year. An increase of over 10% over last year. Geographical distribution of Crude Oil indicates that the maximum reserves are in the Western Offshore (33%) followed by Assam (23%) (Table 1.2). The estimated reserves of Natural Gas as on 01-04-2022 was at 1149.46 Billion Cubic Meters. The maximum reserves of Natural Gas are in the Western Offshore (29.3%) followed by Eastern offshore (23.4%). There is a high potential for generation of renewable energy from various sources like wind, solar, biomass, small hydro and cogeneration bagasse in India. The total potential for renewable power generation in the country as on 31.03.2023 is estimated at 2,109,654 MW This includes solar power potential of 7,48,990 MW (35.50%), wind power potential of 1,163,856 MW (55.17%) at 150m hub height, large hydro power of 133,410MW (6.32%), SHP (small-hydro power) potential of 21,134 MW (1%), Biomass power of 28,447 MW (1.35%) and 13,818 MW (0.66%) from bagasse-based cogeneration in sugar mills. The geographic distribution of the estimated potential of renewable power as on 31.03.2023 shows that Rajasthan has the highest share of about 20.3% (428322 MW). This is followed by Maharashtra with 11.79% (share 248665MW). Gujarat and Karnataka come next with a 10.45% and 9.75% share (220505 MW and 205648 MW respectively). These four (4) states are having more than 52% of the total potential of Renewable Power in India.

Changes in consumer preferences for food

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India is envisioned to be in the league of developed nations by 2047, the centenary year of its Independence. To realize this vision, the economy has to grow at an accelerated rate of about 8% per year or so, from the 6.34% realized in the recent decade. In 2047, India’s population will cross the 1.6 billion mark, and about half of it is expected to be urbanized. There will be a demographic transition, in terms of age, literacy, and workforce participation. These trends will cause a significant change in dietary patterns and an increase in demand for different food commodities although differentially, depending on the consumer preferences. Besides the food demand for human consumption, there will be an increasing demand for food commodities in feed, fuel, and pharmaceutical industries. On the other hand, the country has limited land and water resources, which will shrink in future on account of their competing demand for domestic, energy and industrial uses. Concurrently, the food production system will also come under a confluence of several biotic and abiotic pressures, including climate change and infestation of insect pests and diseases, which may adversely affect crop yields and food supplies in the absence of remedial measures. Therefore, managing food in the future, from both demand and supply sides, will be a major concern for policy makers and the scientific community. To assess the demand and supply of different food commodities towards 2047, the National Institution for Transforming India (NITI) Aayog, constituted a Working Group on Crop Husbandry, Agriculture Inputs, Demand and Supply. The group studied and examined the changing consumer preferences for food and related items. Changes in Consumer Preferences for Food Food preferences evolve in response to changes in income, prices, demographics, lifestyles, and the diversity in available foods. This chapter analyses the changes in food preferences of rural and urban consumers and of different expenditure or income classes, using data from different rounds of the quinquennial ‘Household Consumer Expenditure (HCE)’ surveys conducted by the National Sample Survey Office (NSSO) of the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation, Government of India. These surveys provide detailed information on the consumption of food and non-food commodities, in quantity as well as value. The latest available HCE survey is for 2011-12. For the later years, the Group has relied on data on private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) from the National Accounts Statistics for extrapolating food demand from 2011-12 onwards. Changes in consumption pattern: HCE surveys from 1972-73 to 2011-12 There has been a rising trend in consumption expenditure, and being accompanied by significant changes in its composition (Figure 2.1). The per capita consumption expenditure (at 2011-12 prices) increased by 62.87% between 1972-73 and 2011-12, largely driven by non-food commodities. Food accounted for a lion’s share (69%) in the total consumption expenditure in 1972-73, but after remaining around 62% between 1977-78 to 1993-94, it declined drastically to 44% in 2011-12. While the total consumption expenditure (in real terms) has grown at an accelerated rate, the food expenditure has not exhibited a similar trend. The food expenditure experienced a negative growth during 1972-73 to 1983, and 1993-94 to 2004-05. Significant changes have taken place in the food basket. Cereals which accounted for about half of the total food expenditure in 1972-73, have gradually lost their share, declining to 22% in 2011-12 (Figure 2.2). On the other hand, the shares of high-value commodities, including the fruits, vegetables, milk, meat, fish and eggs, in the food expenditure have increased substantially from 24% in 1972-73 to 40% in 2011-12. Disaggregated by commodity, the share of animal-source foods increased from 16% to 26 %, and of fruits and vegetables from 8% to 14%. Interestingly, there has been a notable surge in the share of processed foods (including beverages and fast foods) from 6% in 1972-73 to 15% in 2011-12. The other way to examine the change in food preferences is to analyze the change in the food basket in terms of consumption of foods based on the extent of value addition to them. Following Morisse and Kumar (2011), the food basket comprises (i) primary products, (ii) first-processed low value-added products, (iii) first-processed high value added products, and (iv) second-processed products. • Primary products are consumed as produced without any processing (e.g. fresh fruits, vegetables, eggs, and fluid milk). • First-processed low value-added products are the primary products with minimal level of processing (upto 5%), in terms of shelling, hulling, husking, milling, drying and grinding (e.g. rice, flour, pulses, spices, and dry fruits). • First-processed high value-added products are the primary products that have undergone sophisticated processing in terms of pasteurization, heating, fermentation, slaughtering and crushing, adding 5-15% value to them but without any other ingredient (e.g. butter, curd, meat, fish, and sugar). • Second-processed products are the products manufactured from the first processed products adding other ingredients such as flavors and preservatives (e.g. biscuits, bread, ghee, ice-cream, and jam). Significant changes have taken place in the food basket. Cereals which accounted for about half of the total food expenditure in 1972-73, have gradually lost their share, declining to 22% in 2011-12 (Figure 2.2). On the other hand, the shares of high-added products, and an increase in the share of second-processed foods to 14% in 2011-12 from 9% in 2004-05. This indicates growing preference for second-processed food products, including the edible oils, fats, cold beverages, salted refreshments, cookies, cooked meals consumed outside home, etc. The real expenditure on primary foods has also increased, but the increment is far less than for the second-processed products. Figure 2.3 presents the changes in food preferences of rural and urban consumers. The rural consumers allocated a higher share of food expenditure to the first-processed high value-added and second-processed foods in 2011-12 than in 2004-05. For urban consumers, the share of second-processed products increased from 14% in 2004-05 to 21% in 2011-12. These changes can be attributed to a sustained rise in per capita income, increasing participation of women in workforce, and changing lifestyles. Nevertheless, this transition in food preferences indicate existence of significant latent demand for high-value and processed foods. Income is one of the key determinants of food consumption and dietary preferences. The data from the HCE surveys reveal a significant difference in the dietary preferences of consumers in different expenditure classes (Figure 2.4). The poor consumers spend proportionately more on first-processed low value-added foods than their rich counterparts. On the other hand, the share of first-processed high value-added, and second-processed foods is significantly higher for the rich consumers. Nevertheless, share of second-processed foods has increased for all expenditure classes. The share of first-processed high value-added foods has increased but only upto seventh-decile expenditure classes. The dominance of high-value and processed foods in the food basket of the rich consumers indicates their strong positive association with household income. HIGHLIGHTS - The spending of Indian households is increasing over the years and a major part of incremental consumption expenditure is spent on non-food items. Allocation of household budget on food is declining. - Consumer preferences are changing steadily away from staple to high value added and processed food products in both rural and urban areas and across all the expenditure-classes. This indicate existence of huge demand of these products and market for the food processing industry in the country. - Rising consumer preferences towards high value food products have become more pronounced in the recent years. The estimates of consumption expenditure based on NSS-HCE surveys and NAS diverge in magnitude due to methodological differences, but both sources provide similar trends in consumption pattern.

Declaration of stock position of wheat is now mandatory

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In order to manage the overall food security and to prevent hoarding and unscrupulous speculation, the Government has made it mandatory for traders/wholesalers, retailers, big chain retailers and processors in all states and union territories to declare their stock position of wheat on the portal (https://evegoils.nic.in/wheat/login.html) from 1 April, 2024 and then, on every Friday till further orders. All the respective legal entities to ensure that stock are regularly and correctly disclosed on the portal. Rice stock declaration by all categories of entities is already in-place. Further, with wheat stock limit expiring on 31 March, 2024 for all categories of entities in states and UTs, entities have to disclose the wheat stock on portal. Now, all legal entities have to declare their wheat and rice stock on the portal regularly. The Department of Food and Public Distribution is maintaining a close watch over the stock position of wheat and Rice to control prices and ensure easy availability in the country. An outlook for Indian wheat production presented by BMI, a Fitch Solutions entity, has forecast that India’s wheat production will rise to 110mn tonnes in 2023/24, which will represent an all-time record harvest volume. While India’s wheat crop maintains a minimal exposure to current drought conditions in southern states like Karnataka, above-average rainfall in Uttar Pradesh and other major wheat-producing states through the first two weeks of March 2024 poses downside risk to BMI’s projected harvest volume. Ahead of the upcoming March-May harvest, the BMI forecast for ndian wheat production in 2023/24 remains below that of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), which is 110.6mn tonnes, as well as below that of the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare, which is 112mn tonnes. The ministry’s final report on planted acreage, published at the start of February 2024, indicated a wheat coverage area more or less unchanged (+0.7% y-o-y) from the 2022/23 season. After an estimated 1.1 per cent y-o-y decline in 2022/23, the research shows that domestic wheat consumption in India will grow by 2.5 per cent y-o-y in 2023/24 and, therefore, climb to 111.4mn tonnes. As a result, the report points out that the generation of a third consecutive wheat production deficit during the season, although somewhat narrower than the 4.7mn-tonne shortfall that resulted from the 2022/23 season. As per USDA estimates, end-of-season wheat stocks in India fell to 9.5mn tonnes in 2022/23, their lowest level since 2007/08. Given minimum stock-level requirements, India could therefore be required to import wheat in 2024, especially if crop yields fall below expectations. At present, the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare forecasts an average wheat yield of 3.52 tonnes per hectare, in line with that achieved in 2022/23, the BMI report projects.

India joins the race to mine the deep sea

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The Centre has recently submitted two applications to the International Seabed Authority (ISA) for approval of two plans of work for exploration in the international seabed area (the Area) of the Indian Ocean. One application has been submitted for the exploration for polymetallic sulphides in the Indian Ocean Ridge (Carlsberg Ridge). The application region, located in the Area in the Central Indian Ocean, covers a total area of 10,000 km² made up of 100 blocks, each 10 km by 10 km in size, with none exceeding 100 km². The second application was submitted for the exploration for cobalt-rich ferromanganese crusts of the Afanasy-Nikitin Seamount in the Central Indian Ocean. The area of the application covers 3,000 km² and consists of 150 blocks, with none exceeding 20 km² in size. The ISA Legal and Technical Commission has been notified. It will consider the application at its next meeting in March 2024 and submit its recommendation on the matter to the Council in due course. The Government of India currently holds two contracts for exploration in the Indian Ocean. The first is for exploration for polymetallic nodules in the Central Indian Ocean Basin. It was signed on 25 March 2002, extended in 2017 and 2022, and will expire on 24 March 2027. The second exploration contract signed between ISA and the Government of India is for the exploration for polymetallic sulphides in the Indian Ocean Ridge. It was signed on 26 September 2016 and will expire on 25 September 2031. As of today, ISA has 30 contracts for exploration in effect with 20 different sponsoring States for polymetallic nodules, polymetallic sulphides and cobalt ferromanganese crusts in the Indian Ocean, North Mid-Atlantic Ridge and Pacific Ocean. Among the sponsoring States, nine are developing States and six are small island developing States.

Deaths from terrorism up 22% at 8,352 in 2023

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

This is the eleventh edition of the Global Terrorism Index (GTI), which provides a comprehensive summary of the key global trends and patterns in terrorism since 2012. The GTI report is produced by the Institute for Economics & Peace (IEP), using data from Dragonfly’s TerrorismTracker database and other sources. In 2023, deaths from terrorism increased by 22 per cent to 8,352 deaths and are now at their highest level since 2017, although they remain 23 per cent lower than at their peak in 2015. Excluding the October 7th Hamas attack, deaths would have still been up by five per cent. Whilst the number of deaths increased, the number of incidents fell, with total attacks dropping by 22 per cent to 3,350 in 2023. Pakistan recorded the most incidents of any country, with 490 attacks recorded. The rise in deaths but fall in number of incidents shows how terrorism is becoming more concentrated and more lethal. The number of countries recording a death from terrorism fell to 41, considerably lower than the peak of 57 countries recorded in 2015 and the 44 recorded in 2022. By far the largest single terrorist attack that occurred in 2023 was the October 7th attack by Hamas-led militants in Israel. This attack killed 1,200 people, and was the largest single terrorist attack since 9/11, and one of the largest terrorist attacks in history. The consequences of this attack have been immense and are still unfolding, with an estimated 25,000 Palestinians killed by Israel’s retaliatory military response as of February 2024. Although Israel suffered the largest terrorist attack in 2023, it was not the country most impacted by terrorism. Burkina Faso is now ranked first on the GTI. In the 13 years that the GTI covers, it is the first time a country other than Afghanistan or Iraq has been top of the index. Almost 2,000 people were killed in terrorist attacks in Burkina Faso from 258 incidents, accounting for nearly a quarter of all terrorist deaths globally. The impact of terrorism in Burkina Faso has increased every year since 2014, with terrorism also surging in its neighbours, Mali and Niger. In Burkina Faso in 2023, deaths from terrorism were up 68 per cent, even though attacks decreased by 17 per cent. The most notable improvements in terrorism occurred in Iraq and Afghanistan. Iraq was ranked outside of the worst ten countries in the index for the first time, with less than a hundred deaths from terrorism recorded in 2023. Total deaths have fallen 99 per cent since their peak in 2007, with incidents falling 90 per cent. Afghanistan has also seen a significant improvement in the impact of terrorism, with deaths and incidents falling 84 per cent and 75 per cent respectively since 2007. The GTI does not include acts of state repression and violence by state actors and as such, acts committed by the Taliban are no longer included in the scope of the report since the group’s ascension to power. The deadliest terrorist groups in the world in 2022 were Islamic State (IS) and its affiliates, followed by Jamaat Nusrat Al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), Hamas, and al-Shabaab. IS remained the deadliest terrorist group globally for the ninth consecutive year, recording both the highest number of attacks and deaths from terrorism. Although the group is still highly active, its impact has been falling for almost all of those nine years. Deaths attributed to the group and its affiliates - Islamic State – Khorasan Province (ISK), Islamic State - Sinai Province (ISS), Islamic State – Sahel and Islamic State West Africa (ISWA) – fell by 17 per cent over the last year to 1,636, the lowest number since 2014. The group carried out attacks in 20 countries in 2023, down from 30 countries in 2020. Terrorism had been falling or remaining steady for several years prior to 2023, with substantial falls from 2015 to 2019 followed by several years of minor fluctuations. However, the last 12 months saw the largest percentage increase in terrorism since the inception of the GTI, even as total attacks fell considerably. This dynamic reflects an intensification of terrorism, with fewer attacks committed by fewer groups while causing a larger number of fatalities. The number of active terrorist groups has also fallen considerably over the past 15 years, with 66 groups recording at least one attack last year, compared to 141 active groups in 2009. This increase in the intensity of terrorism has driven a rise in the lethality rate of terrorist attacks to just under 2.5 fatalities per attack, compared to 1.6 in 2022, the highest level since 2015. Violent conflict remains the primary driver of terrorism, with over 90 per cent of attacks and 98 per cent of terrorism deaths in 2023 taking place in countries in conflict. All ten countries most impacted by terrorism in 2022 were also involved in an armed conflict. The intensity of terrorism in conflict is also much higher than in non-conflict countries, with an average of 2.7 fatalities per attack compared to 0.48 fatalities. Terrorism in the West has fallen to its lowest level in 15 years. There were 23 attacks recorded in the West in 2023, a 55 per cent drop from the prior year, and considerably lower than the peak of 176 attacks that was recorded in 2017. Sixteen of those attacks occurred in the United States, with only five countries in the West recording any attacks at all, and only Belgium and the US recording any deaths. Total deaths in the West fell by 22 per cent to 21 fatalities. Both political and religiously motivated attacks fell in the West. Of the seven attacks recorded in the US in 2023, five were linked to individuals with far-right sympathies or connections. Although terrorism has fallen in the West, there are still concerns about a possible resurgence in 2024. The October 7th attacks, and their aftermath, have greatly increased political tensions in Europe, with German police disrupting planned terrorist attacks on Jewish institutions. There are also concerns over an increase in politically related violence, with record numbers of countries set to go to the polls in 2024. Regionally, the impact of terrorism is far higher in sub-Saharan Africa, the Middle East and North Africa, and South Asia than any other regions in the world. These three regions accounted for 94 per cent of deaths from terrorism in 2023, with sub-Saharan Africa alone accounting for just under 59 per cent of all fatalities. The epicentre of terrorism has now conclusively shifted out of the Middle East and into the Central Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. There were just under four thousand deaths from terrorism in the Sahel in 2023, or 47 per cent of the total. The increase in terrorism in the Sahel over the past 15 years has been dramatic, with deaths rising 2,860 per cent, and incidents rising 1,266 per cent over this period. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger account for most of the terrorism deaths in the region. All three face uncertain futures, having suffered from coups, weak governance, and fragile relations with neighbouring countries, exemplified by their recent withdrawal from ECOWAS. In OECD member countries, socio-economic factors such as youth unemployment, military expenditure, lack of confidence in the press and lower inequality-adjusted life expectancy, correlate\ significantly with the GTI. In non-OECD countries, factors such as a history of internal violence, internal conflict, friction with neighbouring countries, and corruption were more significantly correlated with the GTI than in OECD countries. There is a strong correlation between organised crime andterrorism, and this link is clearest in the central Sahel region. As terrorist groups like JNIM have expanded their territorial control in the region, there has been a surge in kidnappings, ransom demands, and attacks on gold mining operations. Terrorist groups integrate organised criminal operations by co-opting illicit economies, taxing both criminal and unregulated legal enterprises, and providing security for criminal groups and the transportation of illicit goods. Terrorism is not the deadliest form of violence in the world. Armed conflict results in nine times more fatalities than terrorism, homicide accounts for over 45 times more, and deaths from suicide are 72 times higher. However, terrorism is unique as its unpredictability and high casualty rates lead to significant emotional and psychological impacts, which can in turn lead to significant social and geopolitical repercussions. Looking forward, the prospects for 2024 are uncertain. The conflict in Gaza has heightened the possibility of terror attacks in the MENA region, and in states perceived as supportive of Israel or with large Jewish populations. Meanwhile, the ongoing deterioration of the security situation in the Sahel may result in further increases in conflict and terrorist activity.

Housing sales in top 7 cities record 14% yearly rise in Q1 2024

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Housing sales have risen 14 per cent, while average prices are up 10-32 per cent across seven major cities during the January-March period of this year, as demand continues to be strong, according to Anarock. The sales of residential properties increased in Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), Pune, Bengaluru and Hyderabad, but declined in Delhi-NCR, Chennai and Kolkata. On Wednesday, real estate consultant Anarock released its data for the top seven primary (first sale) residential markets in the country. As per the data, housing sales rose 14 per cent to 1,30,170 units during January-March quarter this year across top seven cities, from 1,13,775 units in the year-ago period. “The quarter has recorded the highest ever sales in the last decade amid a significant rise in demand for high-ticket homes priced Rs 1.5 crore and above,” Anarock Chairman Anuj Puri said. Among cities, the housing sales in MMR rose 24 per cent to 42,920 units during January-March, from 34,690 units in the year-ago period. In Pune, housing sales went up 15 per cent to 22,990 units from 19,920 units. Hyderabad saw a 38 per cent increase in housing sales to 19,660 units from 14,280 units. Housing sales in Bengaluru rose 14 per cent to 17,790 units from 15,660 units. However, Delhi-NCR witnessed a 9 per cent decline in housing sales to 15,650 units from 17,160 units. Housing sales in Kolkata too are estimated to have fallen 9 per cent to 5,650 units from 6,185 units. In Chennai, the sales of residential properties have decreased 6 per cent to 5,510 units during January-March period this year, from 5,880 units in the corresponding period of the previous year. Average residential property prices across the top 7 cities have appreciated 10-32 per cent annually in the first quarter of 2024. Commenting on the report, Signature Global Chairman Pradeep Aggarwal said the sales have risen due to strong demand from both end users and investors.

Risks of fewer job creation exist: ILO

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The economic slowdown is expected to finally catch up with job creation in 2024. Some of 2023’s labour market resilience may have resulted from the fact that employment is typically a lagging indicator, so weaknesses in job creation are more likely to unfold some time after economic growth slows. Thus, globally, employment growth is expected to remain positive in 2024, but at rates of only 0.8 per cent in 2024 and 1.1 per cent in 2025 (less than half the employment growth of 2023). The situation is particularly concerning in highincome countries, where employment growth is expected to turn negative in 2024 and only modest improvements are anticipatedin 2025.Similarly, little gain inemployment is anticipated among upper-middleincome countries over the next two years. In contrast, jobs gains in low-income and lower-middle-income countries will remain robust. Unlike in 2023, when female employment growth outpaced that of men, in 2024 employment growth among women is expected to be lower than among men. Despite modest increases in 2023, participation rates are set to decline in the coming years. Recent increases in labour market participation rates are likely to have been buoyed by a stronger than anticipated job market. However, in 2024 and 2025, participation rates are expected to decline across all income groups (except lowincome countries, where they are set to remain stable in 2024 but then decline the following year) and for both men and women. The anticipated fall in participation rates is more pronounced among women, for whom between 2023 and 2025 it is expected to fall 0.7 percentage points globally, compared with 0.1 percentage points among men. Unemployment is expected to rise modestly. Projections show that unemployment rates are set to remain broadly stable over the next two years. As labour force participation rates decline and employment growth slows, the global unemployment rate is expected to remain near current levels, edging up from 5.1 per cent in 2023 to 5.2 per cent in 2024 and remaining unchanged in 2025. This upward tick is primarily a result of the rising unemployment rates expected among high-income countries (an increase of 0.2 percentage points from 2023 levels to reach 4.7 per cent in 2024). A modest uptick in unemployment is expected to disproportionately affect men. The unemployment rate of women is set to remain stable at 5.3 per cent through the forecast period, whereas that of men is expected to rise modestly in 2024 (by 0.1 percentage points) and then decline by the same magnitude in 2025.Global unemployment is projected to increase in 2024 by around 2 million. The modest increase in the unemployment rate will translate into an increase in global unemployment of 2 million in 2024, rising to 190.8 million from the188.6 million in 2023. The outlook for unemployment in 2024 is broadly consistent across income groups, each country group being expected to see an increase in unemployment. The increase is expected to be highest (1 million in total) in high-income countries

First-time asylum applications in EU up 20% in 2023

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In 2023, 1 048 900 first-time asylum applicants (non-EU citizens) applied for international protection in EU countries, up by 20% compared with 2022 (873 700). After a considerable drop in 2020 (417 100), the numbers increased for 3 consecutive years almost reaching the peaks registered in 2015 and 2016 (1 216 900 and 1 166 800) following the war in Syria. Syrian, Afghan, and Turkish – main citizenships of first-time applicants Syria has been the main country of citizenship of asylum seekers in the EU since 2013. In 2023, Syrians lodged 183 000 first-time applications (17% of the total number of first-time applications in the EU). Afghanistan was the second main country of citizenship for the six consecutive year (100 900, or 10% of the EU total). Applicants from Türkiye accounted for 9% of the EU total with 90 000 applications and those from Venezuela and Columbia each represented 6% with 67 100 and 62 000 applications. A third of EU asylum applications was made in Germany With 329 000 first-time asylum applicants registered in 2023, Germany continued to be the EU country with the highest number of applicants, accounting for almost one third of all first-time applicants in the EU (31%). It was followed by Spain (160 500, 15%) and France (145 100, 14%), ahead Italy (130 600, 12%). These 4 EU members together accounted for almost three-quarters (73%) of all first-time asylum applicants in the EU last year. Highest number of first-time asylum applicants relative to the population in Cyprus Compared with the population of each EU country, the highest number of registered first-time asylum applicants in 2023 was recorded in Cyprus (13 first-time applicants per 1 000 people), ahead of Greece and Austria (each 6). In 2023, in the EU, there were 2 first-time asylum applicants per 1 000 people.

Annual profits from forced labour amount to $236 billion: ILO

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Forced labour in the private economy generates US$236 billion in illegal profits per year, a new report from the International Labour Organization (ILO) has found. The total amount of illegal profits from forced labour has risen by US$64 billion (37 per cent) since 2014, a dramatic increase that has been fuelled by both a growth in the number of people forced into labour, as well as higher profits generated from the exploitation of victims. The ILO report, Profits and Poverty: The economics of forced labour , estimates that traffickers and criminals are generating close to US$10,000 per victim, up from US$8,269 (adjusted for inflation) a decade ago. Total annual illegal profits from forced labour are highest in Europe and Central Asia (US$84 billion), followed by Asia and the Pacific (US$62 billion), the Americas (US$52 billion), Africa (US$20 billion), and the Arab States (US$18 billion). When illegal profits are expressed per victim, annual illegal profits are highest in Europe and Central Asia, followed by the Arab States, the Americas, Africa and Asia and the Pacific. Forced commercial sexual exploitation accounts for more than two-thirds (73 per cent) of the total illegal profits, despite accounting for only 27 per cent of the total number of victims in privately imposed labour. These numbers are explained by the huge difference in per victim profits between forced commercial sexual exploitation and other forms of non-state forced labour exploitation – US$27,252 profits per victim for the former against US$3,687 profits per victim for the latter. After forced commercial sexual exploitation, the sector with the highest annual illegal profits from forced labour is industry, at US$35 billion, followed by services (US$20.8 billion), agriculture (US$5.0 billion), and domestic work (US$2.6 billion). These illegal profits are the wages that rightfully belong in the pockets of workers but instead remain in the hands of their exploiters, as a result of their coercive practices. There were 27.6 million people engaged in forced labour on any given day in 2021. This figure translates to 3.5 people for every thousand people in the world. Between 2016 and 2021 the number of people in forced labour increased by 2.7 million. “People in forced labour are subject to multiple forms of coercion, the deliberate and systematic withholding of wages being amongst the most common. Forced labour perpetuates cycles of poverty and exploitation and strikes at the heart of human dignity. We now know that the situation has only got worse. The international community must urgently come together to take action to end this injustice, safeguard workers’ rights, and uphold the principles of fairness and equality for all,” stated ILO Director-General, Gilbert F. Houngbo. The report stresses the urgent need for investment in enforcement measures to stem illegal profit flows and hold perpetrators accountable. It recommends strengthening legal frameworks, providing training for enforcement officials extending labour inspection into high-risk sectors, and better coordination between labour and criminal law enforcement. Yet forced labour cannot be ended through law enforcement measures alone, enforcement actions must be part of a comprehensive approach that prioritizes addressing root causes and safeguarding victims, underlines the report. The Protocol of 2014 to the Forced Labour Convention, 1930 , and the Forced Labour (Supplementary Measures) Recommendation, 2014 (No. 203) provide a strategic framework for comprehensive action.

Survey reveals positive outlook on NPAs, sectors show improvement

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The FICCI-IBA Bankers’ survey, conducted from July to December 2023, marked its eighteenth iteration, with participation from a comprehensive array of 23 banks encompassing public sector, private sector, and foreign banks. These banking entities collectively constitute a significant portion, approximately 77%, of the banking industry, categorized based on asset size. NPAs AND RESTRUCTURING OF ADVANCES Continuing the pattern observed in the prior round, a significant majority (77%) of the respondent banks noted a decline in Non-Performing Asset (NPA) levels over the last six months. All public sector banks (PSBs) participating in the survey reported a reduction in NPA levels, while among the private sector banks, 67% cited a decrease. Conversely, none of the respondent PSBs and foreign banks indicated an increase in NPA levels during the specified period, while 22% of private banks reported a rise. In the latest round of the survey, approximately 44% of respondents noted a decline in requests for the restructuring of advances, compared to 54% in the previous round. Conversely, the percentage of respondent banks reporting an increase in restructuring requests remained stable at 17%, consistent with the previous round. Further analysis by bank type revealed that among participating Public Sector Banks (PSBs), 50% observed a decrease in restructuring requests, while 30% reported an increase. Meanwhile, among participating Private Sector Banks, half of the respondent banks reported a decrease, with only 10% indicating an increase in restructuring requests over the past six months. Notably, all participating Foreign banks reported no change in the volume of restructuring requests. Among the sectors persistently exhibiting elevated levels of Non-Performing Assets (NPAs), the majority of participating bankers highlighted industries such as Food Processing, Textiles, and Infrastructure. Additionally, sectors identified as prone to high NPAs encompass Metals, Iron & Steel, and Engineering Goods. OUTLOOK ON NPAs According to the RBI Financial Stability Report, Indian banks have seen a positive trend in asset quality, reaching a new low in the gross non-performing asset ratio at 3.2% as of September 2023, down from 3.9% in March 2023. Respondent banks in the survey expressed optimism about asset quality prospects, attributed to policy and regulatory support, which was evident in the survey results. Over half of the respondent banks anticipate gross NPAs to be in the range of 3% to 3.5% over the next six months, while 14% expect NPA levels to be in the range of 2.5% to 3%. A majority of both Public Sector and Private Sector Bank respondents (56% each) foresee gross NPAs to be in the range of 3% to 3.5%, whereas only 33% of responding foreign banks expect NPA levels to be in this range. Respondent bankers identified several key factors contributing to the expected improvement in asset quality over the next six months, including a resilient domestic economy, increased credit growth supported by government capital expenditure, a rising provision coverage ratio, restructuring and rehabilitation of eligible stressed units, mobilization of One Time Settlement (OTS) proposals, robust recovery mechanisms, and timely initiation of SARFAESI action in eligible cases. However, respondents also anticipate certain sectors to continue experiencing NPAs over the next six months, including Textiles and Garments, MSME, Agriculture, and Gems & Jewellery. OUTLOOK ON NPAs SECTOR-WISE Respondent bankers highlighted several factors driving the anticipated enhancement in asset quality over the upcoming six months. These factors encompass a robust domestic economy, augmented credit expansion backed by government capital investments, a growing provision coverage ratio, restructuring and revitalization efforts for eligible stressed units, facilitation of the One-Time Settlement (OTS) proposals, effective recovery mechanisms, and prompt initiation of SARFAESI action in eligible cases. Nonetheless, respondents foresee persistent NPAs in specific sectors over the same period, notably Textiles and Garments, MSME, Agriculture, and Gems & Jewellery.

THE HOTTEST YEAR ON RECORD: 2023

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The latest report from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) reveals that records were once again surpassed across various climate indicators, including greenhouse gas levels, surface temperatures, ocean heat and acidification, sea level rise, Antarctic sea ice cover, and glacier retreat. The year 2023 witnessed extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires, and intensifying tropical cyclones, resulting in significant disruptions to daily life for millions and causing extensive economic losses, as outlined in the WMO State of the Global Climate 2023 report. The report confirms that 2023 set a new record as the warmest year on record, with the global average near-surface temperature surpassing 1.45 °Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline (with a margin of uncertainty of ± 0.12 °C). Additionally, it marked the warmest ten-year period on record. “Sirens are blaring across all major indicators... Some records aren’t just chart-topping, they’re chart-busting. And changes are speeding up,” said United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres. “Never have we been so close – albeit on a temporary basis at the moment – to the 1.5° C lower limit of the Paris Agreement on climate change,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “The WMO community is sounding the Red Alert to the world.” “Climate change is about much more than temperatures. What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern,” she said. In 2023, nearly one-third of the global ocean experienced a marine heatwave on an average day, impacting crucial ecosystems and food systems. By the end of the year, over 90% of the ocean had encountered heatwave conditions at some point. Preliminary data revealed that the global reference glaciers suffered their most significant ice loss on record since 1950, primarily due to extreme melt in western North America and Europe. Furthermore, the Antarctic sea ice extent hit a historic low, with the maximum extent at the end of winter plummeting by 1 million km2 compared to the previous record year, equivalent to the size of France and Germany combined. “The climate crisis is THE defining challenge that humanity faces and is closely intertwined with the inequality crisis – as witnessed by growing food insecurity and population displacement, and biodiversity loss” said Celeste Saulo. The annual global mean temperature anomalies, relative to 1850–1900, have been tracked from 1850 to 2023 using data from six datasets. According to the World Food Programme, the number of acutely food insecure people worldwide more than doubled from 149 million before the COVID-19 pandemic to 333 million in 2023 across 78 monitored countries. While weather and climate extremes may not be the root cause, they exacerbate the situation. In 2023, weather hazards continued to induce displacement, highlighting how climate shocks erode resilience and introduce new protection challenges among vulnerable populations. Despite these challenges, there’s a glimpse of optimism. Renewable energy generation, primarily fueled by solar radiation, wind, and the water cycle, has emerged as a pivotal tool in climate action because of its potential to achieve decarbonization goals. In 2023, renewable capacity additions surged by almost 50% compared to 2022, reaching a total of 510 gigawatts (GW) – marking the highest observed rate in the past two decades. This week, the Copenhagen Climate Ministerial on 21-22 March will bring together climate leaders and ministers worldwide for the first time since COP28 in Dubai, aiming to accelerate climate action. A key focus will be enhancing countries’ Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) before the February 2025 deadline. Additionally, securing an ambitious agreement on financing at COP29 to translate national plans into action will be a top priority. “Climate Action is currently being hampered by a lack of capacity to deliver and use climate services to inform national mitigation and adaptation plans, especially in developing countries. We need to increase support for National Meteorological and Hydrological Services to be able to provide information services to ensure the next generation of Nationally Determined Contributions are based on science”, said Celeste Saulo. The State of the Global Climate report, released ahead of World Meteorological Day on 23 March, serves as a precursor to a new climate action campaign by the UN Development Programme and WMO, set to launch on 21 March. POINTS TO BE NOTED: GREENHOUSE GASES TOUCH EXCEPTIONAL HIGHTS: In 2022, observed concentrations of the three primary greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide—reached unprecedented levels. Real-time data from various locations indicate a continued rise in these concentrations throughout 2023. Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels, specifically, are now 50% higher than those seen in the pre-industrial era. This increase has led to the trapping of heat in the atmosphere. Given the long lifespan of CO2, temperatures are expected to continue rising for many years into the future. TEMPERATURE SOARED TO 1.45 ± 0.12 °C: In 2023, the global mean near-surface temperature soared to 1.45 ± 0.12 °C above the pre-industrial average of 1850–1900. This marked the highest temperature recorded in the 174-year observational history, surpassing the previous records set in 2016 (1.29 ± 0.12 °C) and 2020 (1.27±0.13 °C). Furthermore, the ten-year average temperature spanning from 2014 to 2023 stands at 1.20±0.12°C above the 1850–1900 average, underscoring the sustained trend of warming temperatures over the past decade. OCEAN HEAT AT ITS PEAK: In 2023, ocean heat content surged to its peak level, as revealed by a comprehensive analysis of data. The warming trend has notably accelerated over the past two decades, indicating a concerning trajectory. Projections indicate that this warming trend will persist, with consequences that are irreversible over extended periods ranging from hundreds to thousands of years. The prevalence of more frequent and severe marine heat waves poses significant threats to marine ecosystems and coral reefs, exacerbating existing challenges. RISE IN SEA LEVEL: In 2023, the global mean sea level attained an unprecedented high in the satellite record, which extends back to 1993. This alarming increase reflects ongoing ocean warming, primarily due to thermal expansion, as well as the melting of glaciers and ice sheets. Comparing the past decade (2014–2023) to the initial decade of satellite observations (1993–2002), the rate of global mean sea level rise has more than doubled. This acceleration underscores the urgency of addressing climate change and its impacts on our planet’s oceans. ANTARCTICA MELTING: In February 2023, the Antarctic sea-ice extent plummeted to an all-time low for the satellite era, which began in 1979. Remarkably, this record low persisted from June until early November of the same year. During September, typically the month of maximum ice coverage, the extent reached 16.96 million km2. This figure is approximately 1.5 million km2 below the average for the period from 1991 to 2020 and 1 million km2 lower than the previous record low maximum. SOCIO-ECONOMIC IMPACTS: Weather and climate hazards exacerbated existing challenges related to food security, population displacement, and impacts on vulnerable populations. These hazards continued to trigger new, prolonged, and secondary displacement, further increasing the vulnerability of those already affected by complex situations of conflict and violence.

2023 witnessed record-breaking surge in organ donors and transplants

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Preliminary data from the Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network (OPTN) indicates that the United States witnessed a continued rise in organ donors throughout 2023, resulting in several record-breaking trends in the organ transplantation system. This upward trend in annual donations led to notable milestones in organ donation, procurement, and transplant activities. In 2023, a total of 16,335 individuals generously donated one or more organs upon death. This marks a significant 9.6 per cent increase compared to 2022 and signifies the first year with more than 15,000 deceased donors. Additionally, 6,953 individuals became living organ donors, representing the third-highest annual total and the highest since the record set in 2019. Despite annual fluctuations in the number of living donors, 2023 marks the thirteenth consecutive year of growth in deceased organ donors nationwide. “We are gratefully indebted to the generosity of all donors – living and deceased - and donor families, to continue to allow us to help yet more people in need of a transplant,” said Dianne LaPointe Rudow, DNP, president of the OPTN Board of Directors. “At the same time, the community of organ donation and transplant professionals continues to pursue improvements to perform even more lifesaving transplants with the organs that are available.” Transplant trends In 2023, a total of 46,632 organ transplants were conducted, encompassing contributions from both living and deceased donors. This figure reflects an 8.7 per cent increase from 2022 and a substantial 12.7 per cent increase from 2021, which marked the inaugural year with over 40,000 organ transplants. Of these transplants, 39,679 were facilitated by deceased donors, indicating an 8.9 per cent surge compared to 2022. Notably, this milestone marks the eleventh consecutive year of record-setting growth in deceased donor transplants. Moreover, 6,953 organ transplants were made possible through living organ donors, marking the highest total since 2019 when a record of 7,397 living donor transplants occurred. Although kidney transplants account for over 90 per cent of living donor transplants, the number of living donor liver transplants has been steadily increasing in recent years. In 2023, a record-breaking 658 living donor liver transplants were performed, showcasing a noteworthy advancement in the field. Kidney disease disproportionately affects Black and Hispanic populations, making them significant segments of kidney transplant candidates. In 2023, the number of transplants for both Black and Hispanic individuals increased across all organ types. Notably, for the first time, over 10,000 organ transplant recipients were Black, and non-Hispanic, totalling 10,824 across all organ types, with 8,323 specifically for kidney transplants. This represents a notable 12.3 per cent increase in total transplants for Black, non-Hispanic recipients compared to 2022. Similarly, for the first time, more than 8,500 transplants were conducted for Hispanic/Latino recipients, comprising 8,540 across all organ types, with 5,407 dedicated to kidney transplants. This marks a significant 6.5 per cent increase in total transplants for Hispanic/Latino recipients compared to the previous year. In a groundbreaking milestone, 2023 witnessed the performance of over 10,000 liver transplants for the first time in history. A total of 10,660 liver transplants were conducted, marking an impressive 11.9 per cent increase compared to 2022 and sustaining an eleven-year trend of annual record-setting achievements. Furthermore, lung transplants surpassed the 3,000 mark for the first time, reaching a total of 3,026 procedures. Notably, all-time volume records were also established for kidney transplants, totalling 27,329, and heart transplants, amounting to 4,545 procedures. These remarkable achievements underscore the continuous advancements and growing capacity within the organ transplantation field. Deceased donation trends In a notable shift from previous years, deceased donors increasingly represent non-traditional forms of donation, including circulatory death (as opposed to brain death) and older age. In 2023, 5,896 donors, constituting 36 per cent of the total, donated after circulatory death, reflecting a substantial 40.7 per cent increase over the past three years. Additionally, 6,884 deceased donors, comprising 42 per cent of the total, were aged 50 or older. The most prevalent age range among deceased donors in 2023 was 50 to 64, totalling 5,393 donors, reflecting a notable increase of 16 per cent compared to 2022. These trends highlight a changing landscape in deceased organ donation practices, with a growing emphasis on alternative donation methods and donors from older age groups. Living donation trends While living organ donors typically skew younger compared to deceased donors, there’s a noticeable rise in the proportion of older living donors. In 2023, the most common age range among living donors was between 35 and 49, with 2,720 individuals falling within this category, marking a 7.9 per cent increase from 2022. Moreover, there were 2,495 living donors aged 50 or older in 2023, reflecting a higher rate of increase at 12.1 per cent compared to the 35-49 age group. The third most prevalent age group among living donors consisted of individuals aged 18 to 34, with 1,736 donors in 2023. Despite being the third most common age group, this segment experienced a marginal increase of only 1.1 per cent compared to 2022. These trends underscore a notable shift in the demographics of living organ donors towards older age groups.

India ranks 126th in World Happiness Report for 2nd time

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The 2024 edition of the World Happiness Report has been unveiled, revealing Finland as the world’s happiest country for the seventh consecutive year. In stark contrast, India secured the 126th position out of the 143 countries included in the ranking. This annual report offers a comprehensive assessment of happiness levels across more than 140 nations, taking into account various factors such as social support, income, health, freedom, generosity, and the prevalence of corruption. The data utilized in this evaluation is drawn from diverse sources, including the Gallup World Poll. Published annually in commemoration of the International Day of Happiness on March 20, the report is a collaborative effort involving esteemed organizations such as the UN Sustainable Development Solutions Network, Gallup, and the Oxford Wellbeing Research Centre. Through its rigorous analysis and insightful findings, the World Happiness Report serves as a valuable tool for understanding and promoting global happiness and well-being. India remained at 126th position, the same as last year India maintained its position at 126th place in the latest World Happiness Report, consistent with its ranking from the previous year. Notably, all of India’s neighbouring countries secured higher rankings, with China at 60th place, followed by Nepal (93), Pakistan (108), Myanmar (118), Sri Lanka (128), and Bangladesh (129). Life satisfaction among Indians One intriguing finding from the report is that older individuals in India reported higher life satisfaction compared to their counterparts in many low- and middle-income countries, challenging the notion that such satisfaction is exclusive to high-income nations. Additionally, the report highlights that, on average, older men in India tend to report higher life satisfaction than older women. However, upon considering various factors, it was found that older women actually reported greater overall life satisfaction than men. According to the report, life satisfaction stands out as the most reliable gauge of quality of life, representing an individual’s subjective evaluation of their overall life experience. “While participants often assess their current quality of life, life satisfaction in later stages can serve as a metric to gauge the overall success of one’s life journey. Older adults who report higher life satisfaction tend to adopt healthier behaviours, leading to improved overall health outcomes,” the report explained. In terms of intergenerational comparison, the report noted: “Individuals born before 1965 generally exhibit higher average levels of happiness compared to those born after 1980. Among Millennials, self-assessment of life tends to decline with each passing year, whereas, among Baby Boomers, life satisfaction tends to increase with age.” The study examined various aspects of life, including age, gender, social connections, community involvement, living conditions, educational attainment, income level, caste, religion, health habits, medical conditions, and healthcare access, all of which can influence satisfaction levels in later life. Furthermore, researchers observed that while young people aged 15 to 24 generally report higher life satisfaction than older adults, this discrepancy is diminishing in Europe and has recently reversed in North America. Israel ranks 5th despite war Despite five months of war with Hamas, Israel ranked fifth in the 2024 World Happiness Report, which was released on Wednesday. The annual report ranked the happiness of 143 countries based on life evaluation, positive emotions, and negative emotions, among other factors. Anat Panti, a happiness policy researcher at Bar-Ilan University University in Ramat Gan, explained, “Even this year, which was one of the most difficult in the country’s history, Israel is ranked in the top five of the international happiness index. The reason for this lies in the fact that life satisfaction, the index by which the level of happiness is measured, is a stable index over time and refers more to the characteristics of the country itself such as the strength of the economy, the degree of social involvement, and the health services in the country, than to fleeting feelings.” Finland tops while Afghanistan remains least happy Finland maintained its position as the happiest country for the seventh consecutive year, according to the report. Conversely, Afghanistan remained the unhappiest country globally for another year. Alongside Afghanistan, other countries at the bottom of the list include Lebanon, Lesotho, Sierra Leone, and Congo. TAKEAWAYS 1. Older age is correlated with higher life satisfaction in India, countering assertions that this positive association is exclusive to high-income nations. 2. While older men in India tend to report greater life satisfaction on average, further analysis reveals that older women actually exhibit higher overall life satisfaction when other factors are considered. 3. Older adults with secondary education or higher, as well as those from higher social castes, report greater life satisfaction compared to counterparts with no formal education and individuals from scheduled castes and tribes. 4. Factors such as satisfaction with living arrangements, perceived discrimination, and self-rated health emerge as the top predictors of life satisfaction among older adults in India, underscoring the multifaceted nature of well-being in this demographic.

From automobile to retail sales surge: India’s economic tapestry

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The global economy is experiencing a slowdown, with growth decelerating in several resilient economies and leading indicators signalling further moderation in the near term. In India, the real GDP growth reached a six-quarter peak in Q3 of the fiscal year 2023-24, driven by robust momentum, strong indirect taxes, and reduced subsidies. The significant structural demand visibility and improved corporate and bank balance sheets are expected to serve as catalysts for future growth. While inflation is declining, characterized by a broad-based softening of core inflation, persistent sporadic spikes in food prices impede a more rapid decline in headline inflation towards the targeted 4 per cent. The global economy is experiencing a gradual loss of momentum, as evidenced by the slowdown in real gross domestic product (GDP) growth across several resilient economies, while others are witnessing a plateau or even slight contraction. Leading indicators suggest that this moderation is likely to persist in the foreseeable future. Although there are slight improvements in business activity observed in both advanced and emerging economies, external demand remains subdued due to specific weaknesses in various countries, notably in the property sector, coupled with escalating levels of public debt. While labour markets continue to demonstrate resilience, there are indications of a gradual easing, particularly in terms of wage growth. In certain emerging market economies (EMEs), there is a discernible uptick in unemployment rates, signalling potential challenges ahead. Simultaneously, increased labour mobility, advancements in generative artificial intelligence (AI), and the adoption of machine learning technologies are driving improvements in labour productivity and facilitating the establishment of new businesses. These developments were reflected in the February 29, 2024, Chair’s Summary of the first G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors meeting in Sao Paulo, Brazil which noted “that the likelihood of a soft landing in the global economy has increased, with growth showing resilience, despite divergences across countries and regions.” AUTOMOBILE SALES GROWTH In February 2024, automobile sales surged by 24.3 per cent year-on-year, driven by notable increases in both two-wheeler and passenger vehicle sales. Although tractor exports demonstrated robust growth, domestic sales remained relatively subdued. Notably, vehicle registration maintained a consistent year-on-year growth trend throughout February. Average daily petroleum consumption witnessed a 2.1 per cent year-on-year increase, primarily fueled by sustained momentum in industrial and transport activities. RETAIL SALES GROWTH The retail sector is currently undergoing a significant transformation, with domestic brands rapidly expanding their operations. In 2023, retail leasing activity in India’s top eight cities reached 7.1 million square feet, with domestic brands contributing to 70 per cent of the total leasing volume. The operational retail space in grade A malls stood at 68.3 million square feet, with a 10 per cent increase observed in capacity under construction. Furthermore, the resurgence of global capability centres (GCCs) has played a pivotal role in driving demand for grade-A office spaces, leading to a robust expansion in this segment. The heightened leasing activity across various sectors has positively impacted the performance of listed companies operating in this domain. In January 2024, retail sales growth showed improvement compared to December 2023, as indicated by the latest business survey conducted by the Retailers Association of India. This uptick was largely driven by increased sales in quick-service restaurants, sports goods, personal care products, jewellery, and food and groceries segments. However, retail demand for consumer durables and electronics remained subdued during this period.‑

India ranks 3rd in most polluted countries in world

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The fundamental rules of survival are clear: while humans can survive for weeks without food and days without water, they can only last minutes without air. Air stands as the most crucial resource for human life, yet the reality is that much of the world breathes in polluted air on a daily basis. According to the 2023 World Air Quality Report released by IQAir, a Swiss firm specializing in real-time air quality monitoring and publishing annual assessments since 2018, only 10 countries or territories in the past year achieved air quality levels that met the standards set by the World Health Organization for clean air. IQAir utilized the average concentration of PM2.5 (particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 micrometres or smaller) as its primary indicator of air quality for each country or territory. This measurement was based on data from cities with publicly-available information. PM2.5 is a harmful component of air pollution derived from various sources, including emissions from coal and oil combustion, as well as dust storms and wildfires. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), PM2.5 particles can infiltrate the lungs and enter the bloodstream, thereby impacting major organs within the body. Prolonged exposure to PM2.5 is linked to cardiovascular and respiratory health complications such as strokes and lung cancer. Alarmingly, air pollution contributes to an estimated 7 million premature deaths globally each year. According to WHO guidelines, exposure to an annual mean PM2.5 concentration should not exceed 5 micrograms per cubic meter (5 µg/m3). Among the 134 countries and territories assessed by IQAir, only Sweden, Finland, Estonia, Puerto Rico, Australia, New Zealand, Bermuda, Grenada, Iceland, Mauritius, and French Polynesia achieved air quality levels that met this threshold in 2023. Oceania was the cleanest region in the world Oceania, consisting of Australia, New Zealand, and French Polynesia, retained its status as the region with the cleanest air in 2023, as highlighted in IQAir’s report. Remarkably, each of the countries and territories within Oceania succeeded in meeting the standards set by the World Health Organization (WHO). Furthermore, Oceania boasts the highest proportion, with 55% of reported cities achieving compliance with the WHO standard. Asia stands as the most polluted region in the world Asia stands as the most polluted region in the world, as revealed by IQAir’s report. Almost all of the 100 cities with the most polluted air globally are situated in Asia, with a staggering 83 of them located in India alone. In each of these cities, PM2.5 levels surpassed the World Health Organization’s standard by 10 times or more. Topping the list as the most polluted city is Begusarai, located in the western state of Bihar, India, with a population exceeding half a million residents. In the past year, Begusarai recorded PM2.5 levels reaching 118.9 µg/m3—equivalent to 23 times the WHO standard. Central and South Asia are home to the top four most polluted countries globally—Bangladesh, Pakistan, India, and Tajikistan. Shockingly, 31% of the cities in this region reported PM2.5 levels exceeding the WHO standard by more than 10 times, a proportion significantly higher than any other region assessed in the report. IQAir attributed Asia’s air pollution crisis to various factors, including substantial greenhouse gas emissions from coal-fired power plants and the burning of peat bogs. Additionally, the El Niño weather phenomenon has contributed by delaying the onset of the rainy season, which typically helps alleviate PM2.5 levels. Europe witnessed improvement Among the 43 nations monitored in Europe, the annual average PM2.5 levels experienced a decline in 36 of them, an increase in six, and remained unchanged in one. Despite Bosnia Herzegovina retaining its position as the most polluted country in the region, with an annual average PM2.5 level of 27.5 µg/m3, there has been an 18% reduction from 2022. Notably, Croatia demonstrated significant improvement, with its annual average PM2.5 level decreasing by over 40% compared to 2022. Additionally, while 39% of European cities recorded an annual average PM2.5 level of 10 µg/m3 or lower in 2022, the proportion increased to 54% in 2023, indicating a positive trend toward cleaner air in the region. North America emerged as the most monitored region North America emerged as the most monitored region in the 2023 air quality report, with 3,242 cities analyzed, representing 40% of the total cities included in the report. Meanwhile, Latin America and the Caribbean continued to expand their air-quality monitoring network significantly, with the establishment of new government-operated and non-government-operated monitoring stations in numerous cities and countries. This expansion included previously unrepresented locations such as the Bahamas and Ecuador. In a notable shift, Canada surpassed the United States in terms of air pollution for the first time since IQAir began publishing its annual reports. This change was largely attributed to the extensive wildfires that ravaged the country from May to October of the previous year. In May, the monthly average air pollution in Alberta soared almost ninefold compared to the same period in 2022. The United States also experienced an increase in air pollution, with the nationwide average PM2.5 level rising from 8.9 µg/m3 in 2022 to 9.1 µg/m3 in 2023. Smoke drifting southward from Canada’s wildfires contributed to this uptick. Columbus, Ohio, retained its position as the most polluted major U.S. city for the second consecutive year, with an average PM2.5 level of 13.9 µg/m3. In contrast, Las Vegas, Nevada, was ranked as the least polluted major U.S. city, with an average PM2.5 level of 4.9 µg/m3. South Africa was the least monitored region In 2023, the sole non-Asian city among the 100 most polluted cities worldwide was Benoni, South Africa, with a PM2.5 level of 54.9 µg/m3, surpassing the WHO standard by 11 times. However, Africa as a whole confronts a significant challenge in addressing air pollution: a scarcity of data. Despite the rapid urbanization across the continent, only 24 out of 54 countries, representing 66% of the population, possess adequate air quality data to be included in IQAir’s report. Notably, Chad, which was ranked as the most polluted country globally in IQAir’s 2022 report, was excluded due to the absence of publicly available monitoring data. Frank Hammes, global CEO of IQAir, emphasized the critical role of air quality data in prompting decisive action and mitigating human suffering. He asserted, “Lack of air quality data delays decisive action and perpetuates unnecessary human suffering. Air quality data saves lives. Where air quality is reported, action is taken, and air quality improves.”

Gold prices surge to record highs: What is driving the rally?

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Gold prices have surged since the end of February, with the LBMA Gold Price PM currently trading at US$2,180.45 per ounce as of March 11th. This marks a 6.5% month-to-date increase. Gold has achieved record highs for six consecutive days and came close to reaching US$2,200 per ounce during intra-day trading last Friday, March 8th. The significant rise in gold prices has garnered attention from market participants. Initially, the catalyst was attributed to a weak ISM print in the US on March 1st, which resulted in a decline in bond yields and the US dollar. However, while this factor provides some explanation, there are other drivers behind gold’s recent movement. Analysis conducted using a weekly version of the Gold Return Attribution Model (GRAM) suggests that several factors contribute to gold’s performance: Weakness in the US dollar against both developed and emerging market currencies. Increased market volatility. More bullish investor positioning in the COMEX market. A decrease in 10-year US Treasury yields. Despite the insights provided by GRAM, a notable portion of gold’s recent performance remains unexplained. Like any model, GRAM relies on historical relationships, which may not fully capture current market dynamics. Therefore, several other factors could potentially elucidate the additional increase in gold prices. Gold’s swift ascent, surpassing various technical resistance levels and psychological thresholds between US$2,050 and US$2,100/oz, likely triggered the covering of short option strategies and spurred additional tactical investor engagement. While COMEX’s net long positioning, employed by GRAM, operates with a delay and may not currently reflect this development, it could potentially be inferred from more contemporaneous data on Open Interest. Furthermore, activity in the over-the-counter (OTC) market, which may not be fully captured by COMEX positioning or gold exchange-traded fund (ETF) flows, likely contributed additional momentum to the market. WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS? Gold benefited from robust Chinese demand during the Spring Festival at the start of March. Additionally, central banks have maintained their trend of purchasing gold in 2024, as observed in previous reports. This consistent buying pattern by central banks, often reported retrospectively, has contributed to gold’s strong performance in recent years, alongside geopolitical tensions. Looking ahead, upcoming expiries in options markets could attract further investment flows if the gold price sustains its position above significant psychological levels like US$2,100/oz, especially amidst ongoing weakness in the US dollar. Conversely, the upcoming US Federal Open Market Committee meeting will provide insight into the Federal Reserve’s inclination to ease monetary policy, particularly in light of downward revisions to past non-farm payrolls reports and a slight increase in unemployment. Although a rate cut in March is not currently anticipated by the market, a more hawkish stance from the Fed could pose short-term challenges for gold. Moreover, swift fluctuations in the price of gold tend to dissuade consumers of gold jewellery, as they may opt to postpone purchases until volatility abates.

From startups to unicorns: India’s journey towards Unicorn 2.0

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

In the period spanning from 2016 to the present, India’s landscape has seen the emergence of over 100 unicorns alongside approximately 100,000 startups, as per the CII report ‘Unicorn 2.0: Adding the next trillion’. These entities have played a pivotal role in bolstering economic expansion, contributing a significant 10 to 15 per cent to GDP growth. Additionally, they have fostered inclusivity by spearheading rapid digitization across rural and urban sectors, thereby generating 20 to 25 per cent of all new employment opportunities. Furthermore, these ventures have democratized consumption patterns by facilitating broader access to an array of products and services. The existing influential unicorn and startup ecosystem, often referred to as “Unicorn 1.0,” lays the groundwork for the evolution towards “Unicorn 2.0.” This next phase holds the potential to contribute an additional $1 trillion to India’s economy by the year 2030. In its entirety, such a landscape would lead the way in disruptive innovation and establish a guiding principle for governance. It would flourish with a diverse investor ecosystem and a pool of highly skilled and experienced talent. To actualize this vision, initiatives across five key themes are proposed: enhancing domestic funding opportunities, revamping governance structures, fostering an enabling regulatory environment, promoting a culture of widespread innovation, and nurturing talent for employability. These interventions have the potential to expedite the development of Unicorn 2.0, culminating in a robust and influential startup ecosystem that catalyzes transformative growth for the nation.

How Long Do Muslims Fast For Ramadan Around the World?

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Ramadan starts on Sunday evening, with the first day of fasting on Monday, March 11 this year. The holy month is based on the Islamic lunar calendar which is 11 days shorter than the Gregorian solar year, and so its start shifts earlier each year. While the number of days of Ramadan are equal for all Muslims observing it around the world, the length of the daily fast is not. During Ramadan, observers vow to abstain from eating, drinking, smoking and sexual activities through daylight hours. This means that those living further north have to fast for much longer than their counterparts living closer to the equator or even to those in the Southern hemisphere, which is currently tilted away from the sun. This chart, based on data from website islamicfinder.com, shows how Muslims fasting for Ramadan in Oslo theoretically will have to do so for 15 hours and 15 minutes, while those living in Jakarta, Indonesia, will only need to fast for approximately 13 hours and 13 minutes. Meanwhile, those living in Melbourne will have just 13 hours and 25 minutes of daylight, depending on the exact day of the Ramadan month. With the dates of Ramadan moving, there can be a significant difference in the length of fasting depending on the year. For example, in 2013, Ramadan took place during the peak of summer for the Northern Hemisphere, with countries such as Norway experiencing sundown for only around three hours at night. This meant practicing communities faced fasts lasting upwards of 20 hours. To counterbalance this, Muslims may also observe Ramadan using the timetable of Mecca (13 hours and 30 minutes in 2024) or their nearest Muslim city. Credit: www.statista.com

Rich attain Record Development, Poorest go Backwards

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Uneven development progress is leaving the poorest behind, exacerbating inequality, and stoking political polarization on a global scale. The result is a dangerous gridlock that must be urgently tackled through collective action, according to a new report released today by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The 2023/24 Human Development Report (HDR), titled “Breaking the Gridlock: Reimagining cooperation in a polarized world”, reveals a troubling trend: the rebound in the global Human Development Index (HDI) – a summary measure reflecting a country’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita, education, and life expectancy – has been partial, incomplete, and unequal. The HDI is projected to reach record highs in 2023 after steep declines during 2020 and 2021. But this progress is deeply uneven. Rich countries are experiencing record-high levels of human development while half of the world’s poorest countries remain below their pre-crisis level of progress. Global inequalities are compounded by substantial economic concentration. As referenced in the report, almost 40 percent of global trade in goods is concentrated in three or fewer countries; and in 2021 the market capitalization of each of the three largest tech companies in the world surpassed the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of more than 90 percent of countries that year. “The widening human development gap revealed by the report shows that the two-decade trend of steadily reducing inequalities between wealthy and poor nations is now in reverse. Despite our deeply interconnected global societies, we are falling short. We must leverage our interdependence as well as our capacities to address our shared and existential challenges and ensure people’s aspirations are met,” said Achim Steiner, head of the UN Development Programme. “This gridlock carries a significant human toll. The failure of collective action to advance action on climate change, digitalization or poverty and inequality not only hinders human development but also worsens polarization and further erodes trust in people and institutions worldwide.” The report argues that advancing international collective action is hindered by an emerging ‘democracy paradox’: while 9 in 10 people worldwide endorse democracy, over half of global survey respondents express support for leaders that may undermine it by bypassing fundamental rules of the democratic process, as per data analysed in the report. Half of people surveyed worldwide report having no or limited control over their lives, and over two-thirds believe they have little influence on their government’s decisions. Political polarization is also a growing concern with global repercussions. Along with a sense of powerlessness, report authors say, it is fuelling inward-turning policy approaches – starkly at odds with the global cooperation needed to address urgent issues like the decarbonization of our economies, misuse of digital technologies, and conflict. This is particularly alarming in light of 2023’s record-breaking temperatures, which emphasize the immediate need for united action to tackle the climate crisis, or in the advent of artificial intelligence as a new and fast-evolving technological frontier with little or no regulatory guard rails. The report highlights that deglobalization is neither feasible nor realistic in today’s world and that economic interdependence remains high. It points out that no region is close to self-sufficiency, as all rely on imports from other regions of 25 percent or more of at least one major type of goods and services. “In a world marked by increasing polarization and division, neglecting to invest in each other poses a serious threat to our wellbeing and security. Protectionist approaches cannot address the complex, interconnected challenges we face, including pandemic prevention, climate change, and digital regulation,” Steiner added. “Our problems are intertwined, requiring equally interconnected solutions. By adopting an opportunity-driven agenda that emphasizes the benefits of the energy transition and of artificial intelligence for human development, we have a chance to break through the current deadlock and reignite a commitment to a shared future.” The report emphasizes how global interdependence is being reconfigured and calls for a new generation of global public goods. It proposes four areas for immediate action: - planetary public goods, for climate stability, as we confront the unprecedented challenges of the Anthropocene: - digital global public goods, for greater equity in harnessing new technologies for equitable human development; - new and expanded financial mechanisms, including a novel track in international cooperation that complements humanitarian assistance and traditional development aid to low-income countries; and - dialling down political polarization through new governance approaches focused on enhancing people’s voices in deliberation and tackling misinformation. In this context, multilateralism plays a fundamental role, the report argues, because bilateral engagements are not able to address the irreducibly planetary nature of the provision of global public good. More key data from the report • In 2023, all 38 countries that are members of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) achieved higher Human Development Index (HDI) scores compared to their levels in 2019. • Among the 35 least developed countries (LDCs) that experienced a decline in their HDI in 2020 and/or 2021, more than half (18 countries) have not yet recovered to their human development levels of 2019. • All developing regions have not met their anticipated HDI levels based on the trend before 2019. It appears they have shifted to a lower HDI trajectory, indicating potential permanent setbacks in future human development progress. • The impact of human development losses is in sharp focus in Afghanistan and Ukraine. Afghanistan’s HDI has been knocked back by a staggering ten years, while Ukraine’s HDI dropped to its lowest level since 2004. • The report cites research indicating that countries with populist governments have lower GDPgrowth rates. Fifteen years after a populist government assumes office, the GDP per capita is found to be 10 percent lower than it might under a non-populist government scenario.

Retail inflation eases to 5.09% in February, food remains pricey

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

India’s consumer price inflation (CPI) remained unchanged at 5.09 per cent in February 2024, compared to 5.1 per cent in January, as food inflation surged higher and inflation across all other sub-groups eased in Feb 2024, indicating that the momentum in the non-food items continued to track a welcome moderation, as per Government data on Tuesday. “Pricey food led to sticky headline inflation,” observes Dharmakirti Joshi, Chief Economist, CRISIL. Data shows food and beverages inflation printed above the 7 per cent mark for the fourth month in a row with an unpleasant uptick in Feb 2024 vis-à-vis Jan 2024. The pressure from vegetables remained broad-based with inflation in tomato, onion, and potato darting up to 22.7 per cent from 18.1 per cent in January, while the non-TOP category inflation rose to 34 per cent from 32.2 per cent. Joshi notes that while the Kharif harvest has been helping in the softening of foodgrain inflation, vegetables yet again are playing spoilsport. The CPI inflation for Jan’24 eased to 5.1 per cent, mainly driven by the fall in prices of cereals and housing. For 2024, prices of eggs, meat, fish and vegetables categories witnessed a sharp rise in their inflation prints, pushing up the food and beverages inflation. This, says Aditi Nayar, Chief Economist, ICRA, was not spread out with seven of the 12 sub-items witnessing a moderation in their YoY inflation print. Inflation in the miscellaneous group cooled off to a 51-month low of 3.6 per cent in Feb 2024, amid a broad-based dip across all the six sub-categories, while that for housing and clothing and footwear also eased to multi-month lows in that month, helping to moderate the core-CPI inflation. The softer core inflation and even non-food inflation at 2.9 per cent remain a relief. “This, along with the government’s pursuit of fiscal consolidation, should comfort the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India and create grounds for rate cuts in the months to come,” says Joshi At present, ICRA estimates the headline CPI inflation to dip to sub-5.0 per cent in March 2024 from 5.1 per cent in February 2024, led by a dip in the fuel and light (amid the cut in LPG prices) as well as the food inflation prints, even though the latter is likely to remain elevated above the 7.0 per cent mark.

Death Toll Rises to 234 Amid Ongoing Israeli-Palestinian Conflict

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

Intense Israeli bombardment and ground operations, along with heavy fighting between Israeli forces and Palestinian armed groups, continue to be reported across much of the Gaza Strip, particularly in the Hamad area northwest of Khan Younis. This has led to additional civilian casualties, displacement, and the destruction of houses and civilian infrastructure. According to the Ministry of Health (MoH) in Gaza, between the afternoon of March 8 and 09:30 on March 11, 234 Palestinians were killed, and 358 Palestinians were injured. This includes 67 killed and 106 injured in the past 24 hours. From October 7, 2023, to March 11, 2024, at least 31,112 Palestinians were killed in Gaza, with 72,760 Palestinians injured. Among the injured, 72 percent are women and children. Several deadly incidents were reported between March 8 and 10: 1. On March 8, around 11:45, 12 Palestinians were reportedly killed when two houses in the Al Qarara area, northeast of Khan Younis, were hit. 2. On March 8, at about 15:40, at least eight Palestinians were reportedly killed, and 60 others injured, when a residential building in the Az Zawayda area, Deir al Balah, was hit. 3. On March 8, at around 16:46, at least three Palestinians were reportedly killed when an apartment in the Brazil neighbourhood, south of Rafah, was hit. 4. On March 8, during the day, at least five Palestinians were reportedly killed when airdropped humanitarian aid fell on Palestinians due to parachute malfunctions near Al Fayrouz Towers in Gaza City. 5. On March 9, at about 11:00, 13 Palestinians were reportedly killed when two houses in western An Nuseirat were hit. 6. On March 9, at around 18:40, five Palestinians were reportedly killed, and others injured, when a house in the Al Baraka area in Deir al Balah was hit, with some still under the rubble. 7. On March 10, at about 6:20, 15 Palestinians were reportedly killed, and others injured, when tents used by internally displaced persons (IDPs) in the Al Mawasi area were hit. Between the afternoons of March 8 and 11, the Israeli military reported two soldiers killed in Gaza. As of March 11, 247 soldiers have been killed and 1,474 soldiers injured in Gaza since the start of the ground operation. Over 1,200 Israelis and foreign nationals have been killed in Israel, with an estimated 134 remaining captive in Gaza, according to Israeli authorities. The hostilities in Gaza continue to endanger humanitarian aid workers. On March 8, Anera reported the death of its logistics coordinator in Gaza, along with 30-50 other people, in an Israeli airstrike on a shelter in Deir al Balah. The shelter’s coordinates had been shared with Israeli authorities. Anera emphasized the urgent need for an independent investigation and measures to ensure the safety of aid workers. The malnutrition crisis in Gaza is accelerating, driven by a lack of food, water, and health services, according to the World Food Programme (WFP). This crisis poses long-term health risks, disproportionately affecting women and children, with 90 per cent of mothers and children not having a diverse diet. As of March 10, the MoH in Gaza reported 25 deaths due to malnutrition and dehydration in northern Gaza. Save the Children emphasized the critical need for a ceasefire and the unimpeded flow of humanitarian aid and goods into Gaza, highlighting the urgency of addressing malnutrition. On March 8, UNFPA, OCHA, and the International Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC) conducted a rapid assessment of Al Ahli and As Sahaba hospitals in Gaza City. Al Ahli Hospital, severely damaged, is relying on limited staff and volunteers, treating up to 50 patients with an urgent need for specialized equipment and fuel. As Sahaba Hospital, specializing in maternity care, faces extreme shortages of oxygen and anaesthetics, performing C-section cases with local anaesthetics. An inter-agency team delivered maternity equipment and medicine to both hospitals, while UNFPA provided reproductive health kits to As Sahaba Hospital. WHO delivered orthopaedic and trauma items and fuel to both hospitals. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus reiterated the need for sustained, safe access to health facilities to provide urgently needed healthcare consistently. WEST BANK UPDATE On March 8, the Israeli military reported that seven Israeli soldiers were wounded near the Israeli settlement of Homesh due to an explosion, allegedly caused by Palestinians. The explosion occurred following armed Palestinians opened fire at a military post near the settlement. In response, Israeli forces initiated a manhunt in Nablus city and surrounding villages. Since October 7, a total of 417 Palestinians have been killed, and 4,665 Palestinians have been injured, including 718 children, across the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Israel. In the ongoing year, 102 Palestinians have been killed in the West Bank and Israel, compared to 78 in the same period in 2023, with the majority of casualties attributed to Israeli forces. During the same period, 15 Israelis, including four members of the Israeli forces, have been killed, and 97 have been injured in the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, and Israel. In 2024, approximately 560 Palestinians, including 212 children, have been displaced across the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, due to the demolition of their homes, estimated at 116 houses. Over 300 of these displacements occurred during operations conducted by Israeli forces, primarily in refugee camps in Tulkarm and Jenin governorates. This marks a significant increase compared to the equivalent period in 2023 when only 21 people were displaced in similar contexts. The remaining displacements included 36 per cent due to home demolitions for lack of Israeli-issued building permits and 8 per cent on punitive grounds. On March 10, Israeli forces heavily deployed at entrances leading to the old city of Jerusalem, preventing the entry of young Palestinian men through the gates of Al Aqsa Mosque. Reports also indicate physical assaults by Israeli forces on Palestinians, including women and older individuals. Since October 7, although not officially announced, the Israeli authorities have imposed substantial restrictions on access to the Al Aqsa Mosque compound on Fridays. Between October 7, 2023, and March 7, 2024, a total of 866 Palestinians, including 358 children, have been displaced due to the destruction of their houses during operations carried out by Israeli forces. The majority of these displacements (93 per cent) occurred in the refugee camps of Nur Shams, Tulkarm, and Jenin, where Israeli forces also regularly bulldozed roads and caused extensive damage to electricity, water, and sewage infrastructure. During the same period, OCHA has documented 626 Israeli settler attacks against Palestinians resulting in casualties (56 incidents), damage to Palestinian-owned property (499 incidents), or both casualties and damage to property (71 incidents).

Refugee trends: Unprecedented numbers hit 110 million globally

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The number of refugees and asylum seekers has witnessed a notable increase in various countries in recent years, as highlighted in the Statista animation utilizing UNHCR data. The majority of these displaced individuals come from Syria, Ukraine, and Afghanistan. Notably, the United States, Turkey, Iran, and Germany are among the nations currently hosting the largest numbers of refugees and asylum seekers. As of the conclusion of 2022, the UNHCR reported a global refugee population of approximately 35 million individuals. Concurrently, there are individuals facing internal displacement within their respective countries, compelled to flee and separated from their homes. The UNHCR’s estimation places the number of internally displaced persons (IDPs) at approximately 62.5 million by the end of 2022. In total, the UNHCR accounted for roughly 108 million people experiencing displacement from their native lands. Beyond the challenges posed by wars and conflicts, the consequences of climate change further worsen the predicament of displaced individuals. The intersection of conflicts and climate change creates barriers to accessing safety, vital resources, and sustainable livelihoods. The World Bank’s Groundswell report from 2021 forecasts that if the current trajectory of elevated greenhouse gas emissions and disparate development persists without intervention, an estimated average of 170 million people across six regions will experience internal migration by the year 2050. These figures are subject to change and hinge significantly on the execution of policies such as achieving carbon neutrality, particularly by the Global North. The countries considered most vulnerable appear to be aligning with the goal of restricting global warming to 1.5°C, as outlined in the Paris Agreement of 2015. However, more developed nations such as Canada, China, Russia, or the United States are anticipated to fall notably short of meeting this target. STATISTICS BY COUNTRY Sub-Saharan Africa As of the conclusion of 2022, the East and Horn of Africa, along with the Great Lakes region, hosted nearly 5 million refugees. This region constitutes 20 per cent of the global refugee population, with approximately 85 per cent residing in Chad (592,800), Cameroon (473,900), and Niger (255,300). A conflict in Sudan, starting in April 2023, led to the displacement of 2.6 million people within Sudan, with an additional 738,000 fleeing to neighbouring countries by July 2023. Central America and Venezuela Recent years have witnessed increased violence by organized criminal groups, known as maras, in Honduras, while El Salvador experienced a decrease in organized violence. By the end of 2021, the number of refugees and displaced Venezuelans abroad reached 5.2 million. As of 2022, an estimated 968,300 people from El Salvador, Guatemala, and Honduras were internally displaced or sought asylum in neighbouring countries or countries in the Americas, with an additional 241,900 considered populations of concern. Europe By the conclusion of 2022, Europe hosted one-third of the world’s refugees (36 per cent), with the number rising from 7 million at the end of 2021 to 12.4 million at the end of 2022. Turkey remains the largest refugee-hosting country globally, accommodating 3.6 million refugees or 10 per cent of all those displaced across borders. Germany hosted nearly 2.1 million people, constituting 6 per cent of all global refugees. In 2022, over 159,000 people risked their lives attempting to reach Europe, with more than 2,439 reported dead or missing. In response to the vast displacement caused by the war in Ukraine, EU member states and other European nations granted temporary protection to millions of Ukrainian refugees. Iraq As of May 2023, nearly 1.2 million Iraqis remain internally displaced, while the country also hosts 273,700 refugees from other nations. Despite the consistent return of around 4.8 million Iraqi internally displaced persons (IDPs) as of May 2023, many still struggle to reintegrate and require ongoing humanitarian assistance. South Sudan By the end of 2022, approximately 2.3 million South Sudanese refugees were recorded. As of April 2023, more than 97 per cent of South Sudanese refugees were hosted in Uganda, Sudan, Ethiopia, and Kenya. Outbreaks of violence in 2022 led to 282,000 new internal displacements, increasing the total number of internally displaced persons to 2.26 million as of April 2023. The largest groups of returnees, with 151,300 returning in 2022, were refugees from South Sudan. Syria In 2022, the conflict in Syria entered its 12th year, with Syrians accounting for nearly 1 in 5 refugees globally. Approximately 6.5 million Syrians were hosted in 131 countries, and 13.5 million Syrians were internally displaced by late 2022, representing over half of Syria’s total population. Over 75 per cent of refugees (77 per cent) resided in neighbouring countries, including Turkey (3.5 million), Lebanon (814,700), and Jordan (660,900). Rohingya Refugee Emergency The Rohingya, a stateless Muslim minority in Myanmar, have faced significant displacement since the start of violence in 2017. Approximately 1.2 million stateless Rohingya refugees have fled Myanmar, with 90 per cent living in Bangladesh and Malaysia. Ukraine The ongoing war in Ukraine has resulted in more than 5 million Ukrainians displaced within their country and an additional 6.3 million displaced across borders as of June 2023. Over 17 million people in Ukraine are in urgent need of humanitarian assistance. Yemen Fighting in Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East has compounded needs arising from years of poverty and insecurity. In 2022, the internally displaced population in Yemen reached 4.5 million, with displaced families facing a severe risk of famine. Natural disasters have further exacerbated the conflict in Yemen, leading Yemenis to flee multiple times. EDUCATION TRENDS Refugee enrollment remains lower than that of non-refugees across all education levels. As refugee children progress in age, there is an increased risk of them falling behind. Approximately 48 per cent of all refugee children are still out of school, highlighting a significant gap in access to education. School closures due to COVID-19 resulted in refugee learners losing an average of 142 days of school up to March 2021. Even before the pandemic, young refugees were already 30 per cent less likely to complete primary school and only half as likely to complete lower-secondary school. For pre-primary education, enrollment rates for refugees stand at 42 per cent based on data from 40 countries. At the primary level, UNHCR data indicates that 68 per cent of refugee children are enrolled in school. However, this enrollment rate drops significantly to 37 per cent for refugee children at the secondary school level. There is a notable increase in higher education enrollment for refugees, with 6 per cent now enrolled in college or university, compared to 1 per cent in recent years. Gender Gap: Globally, at the primary level, gross enrollment rates for refugee boys and girls are at 68 per cent and 67 per cent, respectively. At the secondary level, these rates decline to 36 per cent for boys and 34 per cent for girls.

Divergent estimates shed light on global growth slowdown

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

The global economy faced challenges even before the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine, experiencing a decade of slowing growth. The pandemic-induced global recession in 2020 exacerbated this slowdown, and the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 added further complications. These adverse events not only led to a decline in actual global output growth but also had a dampening effect on potential growth – the rate of increase in potential output, which represents the level of output an economy could sustain at full capacity utilization and full employment. This decline in potential growth has significant implications for various macroeconomic and development outcomes, impacting improvements in living standards and efforts towards poverty reduction. Comparison of different measures of potential growth The estimated rates of potential growth resulting from the application of these methods differed in their levels and evolutions over time. This section briefly explores these differences. Firstly, variations in estimates of potential growth were more pronounced for advanced economies than for Emerging Market and Developing Economies (EMDEs). Throughout 2000-21, potential growth estimates derived from forecasts ranked as the highest among the nine measures in over half of the country-year pairs. Conversely, univariate filters consistently generated the lowest estimates. This pattern held at the country level as well, with forecast-based measures of potential growth generally being the highest, while measures from univariate filters tended to be the lowest, particularly in the last decade. Secondly, estimates of potential growth based on multivariate filters exhibited narrower confidence bands compared to those based on univariate filters. This distinction is likely attributed to the inclusion of additional demand pressure indicators in multivariate filters, enhancing the accuracy of output gap identification. Thirdly, estimates of potential growth at the global, advanced-economy, and Emerging Market and Developing Economy (EMDE) levels, derived from both univariate and multivariate filters, typically exhibit the highest variances. In contrast, estimates based on the production function approach consistently have the lowest variances. Fourthly, univariate filter-based estimates exhibit the least persistence, particularly in the case of advanced economies, whereas estimates derived from forecasts and the production function approach display the highest persistence across all country groups. These findings align with intuition, as filter-based estimates are specifically designed to capture time-series variation, while the others rely on more enduring drivers of potential growth. Fifthly, estimates derived from various multivariate and univariate filters demonstrate high correlations, with a median within-country correlation coefficient exceeding 85 per cent. However, these estimates only exhibit moderate correlations with estimates from the production function approach and analysts’ forecasts. Likewise, production function-based and forecast-based estimates display only moderate correlations with each other, while estimates from the two sources of growth forecasts used in this chapter demonstrate a high correlation with each other. In conclusion, as anticipated, estimates of potential growth based on filters derived from the unobserved-components model exhibit the closest tracking of actual growth, boasting an average correlation coefficient of 0.95 across the country sample. Following closely are estimates based on the multivariate filter and other univariate filters. As expected, the production function approach, constructed from slow-moving variables, diverges more from actual growth, showing a correlation of 0.45. The correlation is even lower for forecast-based measures of potential growth, as they typically change only when forecasters adjust their views about long-term growth drivers.

Homebuyers flock to new launches, premium homes in vogue

November 19, 2024, 3:29 am

A recent survey conducted on the homebuyer sentiment revealed interesting details in the growing real estate industry. PREFERRED STAGE OF CONSTRUCTION The inclination towards ready homes has experienced a decline and currently resides at the bottom of the preference hierarchy. A noticeable shift has occurred in the preferences between ready properties and new launches across various cities. As of H2 2023, the ratio of ready homes to new launches is 23:24, indicating a complete reversal of the trend observed in H1 2020 when the ratio stood at 46:18. One key factor contributing to this shift is the increased supply of new projects from large and reputable developers. These established developers have instilled greater confidence among potential homebuyers, thanks to their track record of delivering projects on time. In the past, new launches were predominantly led by smaller players, resulting in numerous project delays that eroded buyer confidence. As a result, buyers leaned towards ready homes. The current landscape has transformed. With renowned and well-established developers entering the market, their new projects are experiencing significant growth in housing sales. This renewed trust in the capabilities of established developers has sparked increased interest in new launches, narrowing the preference gap between ready homes and new projects in the real estate market. IDEAL BUDGET RANGE As per the survey findings, while the budget range of INR 45 lakh to INR 90 lakh maintains its status as the most preferred budget for over 33% of potential homebuyers, there is an evident rise in the popularity of premium and luxury homes. Approximately 26% of respondents now express a preference for homes in the range of INR 90 lakh to INR 1.5 crore. Over the past three years, a substantial shift in housing demand has been observed, marked by a notable 19% decrease in the proportion of homebuyers opting for affordable homes. Those interested in affordable homes seem to be adopting a ‘wait and watch’ approach, prompting developers to curtail new supply in this budget category. ANAROCK data further illustrates a significant contraction in the new supply share in the affordable category over the last two years across the top 7 cities. This share has dwindled from 26% in 2021 to a mere 18% in 2023. In comparison, back in 2019, the affordable category constituted 40% of the total new launches. BHK PREFERENCE According to the survey findings, the budget range of INR 45 lakh to INR 90 lakh remains the most favoured for over 33% of potential homebuyers, while there is a noticeable increase in the preference for premium and luxury homes, with around 26% of respondents now leaning towards homes in the INR 90 lakh to INR 1.5 crore range. Over the past three years, there has been a significant shift in housing demand, with a notable 19% decrease in the proportion of homebuyers opting for affordable homes. Those interested in affordable homes appear to be adopting a ‘wait and watch’ approach, leading developers to reduce new supply in this budget category. ANAROCK data further highlights a substantial contraction in the new supply share in the affordable category over the last two years across the top 7 cities. This share has decreased from 26% in 2021 to a mere 18% in 2023. In comparison, back in 2019, the affordable category constituted 40% of the total new launches. There is a significant demand for 3BHK apartments, especially in cities like Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, and Delhi-NCR. The majority of survey respondents in these cities express a preference for 3BHK units over other BHK types. On the contrary, in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region (MMR), a majority of respondents (44%) favour 2BHK apartments as their most preferred BHK typology. Remarkably, 1BHK units are predominantly in demand in the western markets of MMR and Pune, where 17% and 10% of the survey respondents, respectively, voted in favour of this option. This data underscores the diverse preferences for apartment sizes observed in different cities across the country. LOCATION PREFERENCE The demand for homes in city peripheries remains robust, with a significant 36% of survey respondents expressing a preference for these areas over others. The appeal of peripheries lies in the availability of more extensive homes at relatively affordable prices, enhanced connectivity, and developing infrastructure. The ongoing influence of the hybrid work model plays a crucial role in sustaining this trend. The adoption of the hybrid work model by many offices, necessitating employees to work from the office for a few days each week, allows individuals the flexibility to consider residing in the peripheries while maintaining the option to commute to work when required. However, it’s noteworthy that the inclination to purchase homes in peripheral areas has declined over the last two years. In H2 2021, 43% of respondents favoured peripheries, but this figure decreased to 36% in H2 2023. Consequently, there has been a shift in preference back towards suburban areas, given that many of these regions are now well-developed and still relatively affordable compared to city centres. In the current survey (H2 2023), 30% of respondents selected suburban areas as their primary choice for purchasing a home, a slight increase from the 25% recorded in H2 2021. TOP 3 HOMEBUYER DEMANDS In recent years, there has been a significant shift in homebuyers’ preferences, influenced by new realities. The following are the top demands of homebuyers: Construction quality: Many now prioritize risk-free investments, even if they come at a premium. Consequently, a major demand from homebuyers (74%) is an enhancement in construction quality. Large and leading developers are currently experiencing robust sales, primarily because they instil confidence and assurance in buyers regarding timely project delivery and high-quality products. Balcony availability: A considerable 75% of property seekers express a desire for balconies in their homes to create a sense of more open spaces within the living area. Office/study room/corner availability: An interesting demand observed among 31% of prospective buyers is the need for a small office space or a separate study room. This demand is primarily attributed to the influence of the hybrid work model.