As Israel’s Operation The Rising Lion faces off with Iran’s Fury, the world wonders if they are stepping closer to a Nuclear Holocaust! This is the first time that the Iran-Israel conflict is a full-fledged war! Conventionally, both nations fight in a silent blaze that rages across the Middle East through proxies, sabotage, cyberattacks, and intelligence wars since the Iranian Revolution in 1979.
What began as an ideological hostility has evolved into one of the world’s most perilous rivalries, now culminating in open conflict in 2025. The latest conflict in the Middle East is a classic case of nuclear diplomacy failures that ensured both nations crossed the threshold into direct warfare.
Roots of Enmity
Until 1979, Iran and Israel shared quiet diplomatic and intelligence relations under the Shah of Iran. Israel purchased oil from Iran and supported its regime as a regional bulwark against Arab nationalism. Under Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, Israel was the largest supplier of arms to Iran. However, the Islamic Revolution reversed that dynamic overnight.
Ayatollah Khomeini labeled the Jewish state of Israel the “Little Satan,” the USSR became the “Lesser Satan” and the USA was crowned the “Greater Satan.”
And these words became the foundation of the new Iran’s foreign policy. Soon after gaining political power, Ayatollah Khomeini began a massacre of communists and opposition leaders in the nation. Reportedly, the blood of close to 30,000 stained the hands of the Ayatollah regime in the first year itself. Apart from ensuring a stranglehold on the voice of the people’s representatives, the Islamic revolution of Iran enacted a policy of “exporting the revolution” – including arming, funding, and training Hezbollah and Hamas.
From 1982 onward, Iran established its proxy foothold in Lebanon through Hezbollah terrorists that regularly engaged with Israel and supplied ammunition as well as training to Hamas. Despite the 2024 pager attack on the senior leadership, Hezbollah remains a formidable paramilitary organization with an arsenal of over 150,000 rockets and ill-wishes aimed at Israel.
Covert Wars and Overt Strikes
Since 1979, Iran and Israel have engaged in numerous indirect clashes, often through third-party militias or cyber operations. A timeline of notable episodes:
1. Lebanon War (1982–2000)
- On 6th June 1982, Israel invades south Lebanon to counter the growing influence of the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO) and assist Lebanon’s Christian Kataeb Party or Phalanges in winning the Lebanese Civil War.
- Two months of brutal war had 5000-6000 PLO members scurrying to Tunis via Egypt to escape from Israeli wrath. And by September 1982 the Iran-backed Hezbollah emerged to assistante the leader of the Pahalangists and President-elect of Lebanon.
- The invasion created a no-go security buffer between Hezbollah-controlled Lebanon and Israel.
- However, Hezbollah’s attacks, suicide bombings, and rocket fire continued to attack Israeli soldiers and civilians.
2. Second Lebanon War (2006)
- A cross-border skirmish triggered a direct war.betweenIsrael and Hezbollah.
- The 34 days of war ensured Israel suffered significant losses, and the Shia terrorist group of Hezbollah lost men, influence, and face with other Arab nations.
- Israel blamed Iran for supplying weapons, training, and strategic support to propagate a proxy war with the Jewish nation.
3. CyberwarfareBetween Israel and Iran
- Stuxnet in 2010, was a joint U.S.-Israel cyberattack on Iran’s Natanz nuclear facility.
- A USB-based 500KB virus was input into 14 machines using Microsoft Windows, including the Urianium-Enrichment plant at Natanz.
- The virus was malicious and fast-repliating, thus, spreading to many locations.
- It enabled anyone to spy on the work done by the machine and control equipment like centrifuges without the knowledge of its operators.
- A series of mysterious explosions, assassinations of nuclear scientists – like Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in 2020, and facility fires have been attributed to Israel.
4. Syria, Gaza, Read Sea Conflicts (2010–present)
- Israel has launched over 1,000 airstrikes on Iranian military targets and weapons convoys in Syria to prevent entrenchment near the Golan Heights.
- Iran supplies Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad with arms and funds.
- Several Gaza wars (2009, 2012, 2014, 2021) saw Iran’s hand in fueling anti-Israel aggression.
- A maritime shadow war began in the 2010s with tit-for-tat sabotage of Israeli and Iranian ships.
The 2015 JCPOA: A Deal Dismantled
The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), a.k.a Iran Nuclear Deal, was signed in 2015 between Iran and the P5+1 (U.S., U.K., France, Germany, China, Russia).
Key Terms of the 2015 Deal:
- Iran agreed to limit uranium enrichment to 3.67% and cut its stockpile by 98%.
- No new enrichment facilities were allowed.
- IAEA inspections were mandated.
- Sanctions on Iran were lifted in return.
But Israel was vocally critical of the deal. PM Netanyahu famously presented intelligence claiming Iran lied about the military dimensions of its program, calling the deal a “historic mistake.”
During his first term, President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA in 2018. Sanctions on Iran came back in full force and were more crippling than ever. Consequently, Iran went on to respond by breaching enrichment limits.
Despite U.S. attempts under the Biden administration to revive the deal, Iran refused several terms:
- Full IAEA transparency.
- Sunset clause extensions.
- Ban on ballistic missile development.
- Limiting IRGC’s influence.
Iran argued these terms violated its sovereignty, and negotiations failed in 2022 and 2023.
The Slide into Open War
The fragile status quo began to collapse in late 2024. While fighting with Hamas and trying to dismantle the extensive tunnel structure of the Gaza-based terrorist groups, Israel exchanged hostilities via Iran and its proxy in the region.
- Rocket attacks from Hezbollah resulted in Mossad’s Pager Operation that left Hezbollah’s top leaders stunned and the organization incapacitated.
- Iran began a rapid enrichment of Uranium while the IAEA raised alarms of it nearing weapons-grade.
- Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Syria.
- Hezbollah’s weapons manufacturing facilities were neutralized.
- Israel launched an attack on Iran’s military base, international airport, and Natanz nuclear site.
- Allegedly, Israel was behind the death of Iran’s President EbrahimRaisolsadatia.k.aEbrahimRaisi.
The exchanges of hostilities pushed the region into open confrontation.
In April 2025, after an alleged Iranian drone strike on northern Israel killed civilians, the IDF launched Operation Iron Resolve, striking Iranian bases in Syria, Iraq, and even Isfahan.
Iran retaliated by launching ballistic missiles from its mainland — the first direct engagement since 1979.
Nuclear Escalation Risks
As of 2025, the IAEA reported that Iran was enriching uranium at 60%. This was alarmingly close to weapons-grade level. Experts began to warn that Iran could assemble a bomb in less than three weeks, though weaponization may take months. As per IAEA reports, the enriched Uranium reached 400 Kg which was enough to power 10 nuclear warheads, if weaponized.
Israel is long suspected to possess 90 -100 nuclear warheads. However, without a treaty in place, it remains unmonitored and undeclared. The Jewish nation has made it clear it will not tolerate nuclear weapons in the hands of the Islamic Regime of Iran.
Thus, while the world deliberated on IAEA sanction, Israel took matters into its own hands. The current Iran-Israel war is Israel’s attempt to preemptively restrict Iran’s nuclear dreams. Thus, the current war is underpinned by nuclear brinkmanship, with fears of a regional meltdown in the Middle East.
What’s at Stake
This current crisis in the Middle East is not merely a conflict between two states. The war threatens to:
- Drag the USA into war as Israel’s ally.
- EU and other allies are sure to support Israel in its quest to contain Iran.
- Disrupt global oil markets through Strait of Hormuz blockades.
- Inflame sectarian divisions between Sunni and Shia states.
- Destabilize regional security in the Middle East – specifically in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq – where both nations hold stakes.
Iran’s Strategic Dilemma
Iran faces a triple crisis:
- Domestic unrest is multiplying with Iranians choosing personal freedoms over restrictive regimes that use moral police to enforce morality laws (hijab laws) as the sanctions and war push the nation toward an economic collapse.
- Regime change is a very real possibility facing the Ayatollah regime with the Shah of Iran assuring support to Israel while in exile.
- An overstreach of resources is a daming probability faced by Ayatollha administration as Isrealistikes have limited its military capabilities limited.
Despite its ideological fervor, Iran is overextended. Yet its narrative of resistance gives it symbolic power across the Muslim world. With Pakistan, Bangladesh, Yemen, and Lebanon offering support – Iran stands as a beacon to the Islamist regimes across the Middle East and Indian Subcontinent.
Israel’s Calculated Gamble
So what does Israel seek from this war? The answer is simple:
- Destroy Iran’s nuclear program or delay it significantly.
- Signal strength to deter Hezbollah, Hamas, Houthis, and other regional adversaries.
- Reassert deterrence amid growing Iranian confidence.
- Engineer regime change in Iran to ensure security for Israelis.
- Cut off the supply of arms and funds to the remnants of Hamas in Gaza.
However, Israel risks a full-scale regional war, with a slight chance of a nuclear holocaust if Iran manages to produce a Nuclear Warhead while engaging with Israel. Global backlash might increase multifold with deaths attributable to the Israeli administration increasing across the Middle East. If the war drags on for several days, its economic and civilian facilities become vulnerable targets of missiles, causing severe nationwide repercussions.
Final Word
This Israel-Iran war is not sudden. It is the crescendo of four decades of mistrust, proxy warfare, and failed diplomacy. The collapse of the JCPOA, Iran’s rejection of stricter nuclear dictates, and the growing regional ambitions of Israel & Iran have created a perfect storm.
While neither Iran nor Israel might want mutual destruction, the risk of miscalculation is dangerously high. With the nuclear card in play, the conflict now demands global attention, collaboration, and calls for restraint. Most importantly, it asks for all to recognize that the days of arm-twisting diplomacy by the West are over. If the interests of all parties are not kept in mind at the diplomatic table, it will result in a conflict that will cost human lives and national resources, far beyond just the Middle East.