After more than two years, the RussiaUkraine war has evolved into one of the 21st century’s most asymmetrical and technologically advanced conflicts. Ukraine’s daring use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) to strike deep inside Russian territory, directly targeting key installations that were previously thought to be untouchable, is one of the most important tactical developments. In particular, Ukraine’s drone attacks against Russia’s fleet of nuclear-capable bombers represent a significant departure from conventional wisdom in modern warfare. These assaults reveal weaknesses in Moscow’s military infrastructure in addition to showcasing Kyiv’s increasing technological capabilities. This conflict, which was formerly dominated by conventional military tactics and weaponry, is now being used to test a new, asymmetrical style of combat.
Russia’s Strategic Bomber Fleet: Backbone of Nuke Deterrence
Russia has one of the world’s biggest and most sophisticated fleets of bombers with nuclear weapons. The Tupolev Tu95MS “Bear-H,” Tupolev Tu-160 “Blackjack,” and Tu-22M3 “Backfire” are important aircraft. These Cold War-era aircraft, which have undergone constant modernisation, are based at important air bases such as Olenya (Murmansk), Engels-2 (Saratov Oblast), Dyagilevo (Ryazan), and Soltsy (Novgorod Oblast). The Federation of American Scientists estimated that as of early 2022, Russia had more than 66 strategic bombers, including 55 Tu-95MS and 11 Tu-160s. These bombers are essential to Russia’s nuclear triad, as they can unleash nuclear-tipped cruise missiles with a range of more than 2,500 kilometres. These aircraft serve as platforms for long-range precision missile attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure in addition to being tools of nuclear deterrence. Therefore, Russia’s operational and strategic capabilities are greatly impacted by its capacity to threaten or destroy them.
Timeline of Key Drone Attacks
Ukraine has conducted numerous drone strikes deep into Russian territory since late 2022. On December 5, 2022, two Tu-95MS bombers were damaged at Engels-2 airbase in the first of these assaults. On December 26, 2022, there was another strike at Engels that reportedly resulted in infrastructure damage and human casualties. The attacks demonstrated Ukraine’s ability to hit targets almost 600 kilometres from the Ukrainian border and stunned the Russian military. Ukraine successfully targeted and apparently destroyed a Tu-22M3 bomber in a drone assault on Soltsy airbase on August 19, 2023. The plane was enveloped in flames, as shown by satellite photos and video evidence. Ukraine increased the efficacy and range of its drone operations by October 2023.
Ukraine damaged at least four Ilyushin Il-76 military transport planes in a bold attack on Pskov airbase near the Estonian border. Engels-2 was once more targeted by Ukraine in April 2024, highlighting ongoing weaknesses. According to the UK Ministry of Defence, these frequent drone attacks probably reduced Russia’s fleet of bombers by at least 10% to 15%, resulting in the loss or destruction of 7–10 strategic bombers. This is a significant setback considering the small number of operational Tu-160 and Tu-95 bombers.
Ukraine’s Growing Drone Arsenal
Ukraine’s drone campaign is a technological triumph as well as a military one. Ukraine had created several long-range, domestic UAV systems by the middle of 2024. Among them is the domestically made “Beaver” (Bober) drone, which is said to have a range of more than 1,000 miles and be able to carry explosive warheads weighing between 20 and 25 kg.
Ukraine has received hundreds of tactical drones from Western partners, including the Switchblade 300/600 and Phoenix Ghost loitering weapons from the United States, in addition to its own designs. More than 200 Ukrainian private enterprises are now working on drone development, according to the Ukrainian Ministry of Digital Transformation. More than 50,000 drones were produced each month for a variety of warfare missions as of late 2023, marking a more than 500% increase in domestic drone manufacturing. The asymmetric cost-effectiveness of this strategy has been highlighted by the destruction or disablement of Russian bombers valued at over $300 million each by drones that cost as little as $20,000.
Strategic Impact on Russia’s Military Posture
The Russian military has been compelled to reconsider its defensive posture due to the direct targeting of bombers with nuclear weapons. Following the attacks on Engels and Soltsy, Russian officials started moving planes to fartherflung air facilities in the east, like Olenya in Murmansk and Belaya airfield near Irkutsk. Even though their security is increased, this makes it more difficult to launch operations against Ukraine and decreases operational efficiency. In order to safeguard airbases, Russia has also had to reroute vital air defence equipment, including as S-400 and Pantsir-S1 units, away from frontline missions.
This results in a strategic trade-off: protecting valuable assets located deep into Russia compromises Ukraine’s battlefield defence. The Russian Armed Forces’ “airbase defence has emerged as a major vulnerability,” according to Russian specialists, notably those from the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST). Modern warfare has undergone a radical change as a result of these drone attacks. Because of their location and sophisticated air defence systems, strategic bombers were once thought to be untouchable assets.
The successful strikes by Ukraine cast doubt on this notion and herald the emergence of what the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) has called “poor man’s precision strikes.” An asymmetry of cost, reach, and lethality is best shown by Ukraine’s strategy. Even countries with limited resources can now pose a danger to the strategic reach of nuclear powers because to inexpensive drones and sophisticated navigation systems. At least 45% of effective long-range Ukrainian drone strikes, according to a research conducted by RUSI in early 2024, comprised coordinated swarms, with primary attack drones hitting predetermined targets and decoy UAVs flooding radar systems. “The drone age has effectively blurred the distinction between frontlines and rear areas,” the report noted.
Russia’s Response and Its Limitations
Russia has tried using layered air defence to address the danger, but the results have been inconsistent. Small, low-flying drones are difficult for many of its air defence systems to detect because they are designed for threats at high altitudes. Ukraine has been able to breach perimeters on multiple occasions even though it has deployed more than 100 Pantsir and Tor-M2 systems for close-range defence. Additionally, Russia is spending money on counterdrone jamming devices and electronic warfare (EW) systems, but these weapons are not very effective against pre-programmed or terrainfollowing drones.
Drone defence systems based on laser and microwave technology are being developed, although they are still in the experimental stages and have not yet been put into use. Furthermore, the cost of protecting all of Russia’s vital locations throughout its enormous territory is unaffordable, highlighting the defence conundrum that ubiquitous drone warfare presents. Ukraine’s drone policy has far-reaching effects outside of Eastern Europe. To account for drone threats to strategic assets, NATO, China, Israel, India, and even the US are adjusting their air defence strategies.
According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), military spending on drone and counter-drone technologies increased by 36% globally in 2023 to $14.2 billion, with estimates of over $22 billion by 2026. NATO nations are spending money on drone swarm interceptors, passive radar, and AI-powered early warning systems. Israel has started placing laser-based drone neutralisers along its borders, and China has displayed new “SkyNet” low-altitude radar systems. Every high-value asset, including command bunkers and missile silos, is now at risk from tiny, covert drones that cost a tenth of what conventional weapons do.
The New Age of Asymmetric Precision Warfare
In addition to being a tactical victory, Ukraine’s targeted drone attacks on Russia’s nuclear-capable bombers mark a significant turning point in military history. They demonstrate how inventiveness and inexpensive technology may be used by even those with relatively limited resources to counter the strategic advantages of nuclear powers. Thus, the conflict in Ukraine has turned into a testing ground for a new kind of warfare that is asymmetrical, accurate, economical, and psychologically powerful. Traditional beliefs about deterrence, force projection, and military supremacy are being challenged as drones continue to advance in autonomy, payload, and range.
The once-untouchable airbases are now at risk, the once-secure skies are now open to intrusion, and the laws of war have been permanently changed. The future of war will be asymmetrical, unmanned, and global. This is the new, evolving pattern of conflict. Dr Syed Mohammad Raghib did his PhD on “Iran and Palestine Question, 1979-2013” from JNU, and is currently working as a research officer at IIPA, New Delhi. The view is personnel.