There is unprecedented churn in the global order, as witnessed over the last few days. Who would have thought even three months ago that a discussion on the future of the Ukraine-Russia war would be held between the United States and Russia, minus Ukraine, in Saudi Arabia, while Europe, feeling left out and desperate, would be meeting in Paris for brainstorming, in a bid to stay relevant in the unfolding scheme of things, but failing to arrive at an acceptable way forward? This is such a contrast from the non-stop attacks on Russia by the Nato countries, who have been fighting their war to the last Ukrainian standing, in a bid to topple Vladimir Putin.
Before conspiracy theorists run away with the narrative, at one level all this has a very simple explanation—it is a case of newly sworn in US President Donald Trump bringing his personality to international relations: war hurts business, so a deal must be cut and peace must prevail. This is what exactly he is bringing to the table when he says that “I have the power to end this war.” His stand is simple: you were given a chance but you failed, so I will do it my way, even if that displeases you. Hence, on the question of excluding the European nations from the discussions, Trump is categorical: “Today I heard, ‘Oh, we weren’t invited.’ Well, you’ve been there for three years. You should have ended it in three years. You should have never started it. You could have made a deal.” On Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Trump had said earlier that he thought “Zelenskyy is maybe the greatest salesman of any politician that’s ever lived. Every time he comes to our country, he walks away with $60 billion.” Now as President, he is clear that Zelenskyy is not the person who can end this war. Apart from being deeply unpopular in his own country (4% approval rating, according to Trump), which is now rubble, Zelenskyy is unable to give an explanation on where at least half of the around $350 billion—in Trump’s estimates—that the US had given him had gone. Add to that the money given by Europe, and in Trump’s view, Zelenskyy is no good. For a man who believes that he is the best dealmaker in the world, all that money going down an unending dark hole is the biggest deal-breaker. Plus Zelenskyy apparently refused to part with Ukraine’s mineral wealth, which Trump demanded from him to compensate for the money the US had given him. No wonder, Zelenskyy has fallen off Trump’s good books and the US President is more than ready to listen to Russia’s complaints about Zelenskyy.
The contours of the things to come are becoming clearer: Zelenskyy, who became President in 2019—after Petro Poroshenko, who was brought to power by the US-manufactured Maidan Revolution of 2014 to remove the pro Russia President Viktor Yanukovych—may have to step down, fresh election may be held and power will return to possibly someone who Russia does not have problems with. After all, Ukraine was a part of the Soviet Union, and later was in Russia’s sphere of influence until 2014. Staying in Russia’s sphere of influence may be the least of Ukraine’s worries, battered and bruised as the country is, having lost hundreds of thousands of civilians and military personnel in what is essentially a pointless war. The territory under Russia’s control is likely to stay with it. In fact, one of the reasons why Putin invaded Ukraine on 24 February 2022 was because of the atrocities being committed on the Russian speaking population of Ukraine’s restive eastern provinces by Zelenskyy’s forces. Large parts of these provinces are now in Russian control.
While the Europeans are incensed at this turn of events, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer threatening to send in troops to help Ukraine, any such move will make him even more unpopular at home, which he may not be able to afford, given his ratings have been plummeting in recent weeks over his policies. Even otherwise, Starmer’s views are not shared by his European Union counterparts. So the European nations have been left to pleading with Trump not to let Putin drive a wedge among the western powers. It will be interesting to see how they achieve to stay relevant at a time when Trump has made it clear that the Cold War is over and the focus is on the wrong continent. It is Asia where all eyes should be, and not on Europe—something that India has been speaking of for a long time. It is in this context that Trump’s outreach to Russia must be seen. By being conciliatory towards Russia, including hinting the lifting of sanctions, Trump is giving Putin enough room to manoeuvre and thus reduce his dependence on China. Trump is clear, it’s the Indo-Pacific that is where all the attention should be, because China is trying to turn it into its backyard and use it as a springboard to challenge US primacy as the number one power in the world, which cannot be allowed to happen.
All this will not be easy. But when Donald Trump has made up his mind to rewrite the world order, who knows, he just might end up doing it.