Kurdish separatist leader Abdullah Ocalan’s recent overture while behind bars to the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) to give up arms brought hope and doubts to Turkey. Analysts suggest the action perhaps has something to do with the political maneuverings of President Tayyip Erdogan, namely with regard to making changes to the constitution and ensuring his continued presence in power.
Thousands of people gathered in Diyarbakir, a predominantly Kurdish province, to hear Ocalan’s message, read on giant screens by a delegation that had been received by him. The statement was greeted by supporters as a step in the right direction for peace, but criticized by detractors as not being sincere.
“It is good. It is valuable,” said Mehmet Kaya, a trader in Batman province. “We hope this will lead to peace and calm.” Similarly, pensioner Sadullah Bozyigit viewed the statement as a broader message to the whole Middle East.
But others laughed at the call. “This is not the right move,” Mustafa Ogut of central Turkey declared. “They have laid down arms before and only grown stronger.” Insurer Tekin Erturk in Istanbul sounded guardedly optimistic, saying, “We want peace, unity, and an end to terrorism.”
Political analysts remain wary of the true motives of the Turkish government. “Ocalan’s peace call is significant, but it is unclear whether Ankara is seeking to resolve the problem or employing the initiative for political gains,” Wolfango Piccoli, co-president of risk advisory Teneo, said.
Analysts believe that Erdogan could use the progress to gain the support of the pro-Kurdish DEM Party in a bid to change the constitution and run for re-election in 2028. In case of delay in negotiations, analysts predict that Erdogan would return to using military force against the PKK and political repression of Kurdish parties to boost his nationalist support.