The Pentagon announced on Wednesday that recent US attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities could have pushed Tehran’s program back by one to two years. Intelligence assessments after the attacks, which hit three key facilities in the past month, indicate a significant setback for Iran’s nuclear plans, a Reuters report said.
“We have degraded their program by one to two years,” Pentagon spokesperson Sean Parnell said at a news briefing, as quoted by The Guardian. “At least, intel assessments inside the department assess that.”
Strikes Targeted Three Key Nuclear Facilities
Parnell repeated the previous administration of President Donald Trump‘s claim that the US totally obliterated key Iranian nuclear sites. But he did not elaborate on how the Pentagon came up with that determination, referencing internal intelligence sources as the foundation of their assessment.
While Trump declared complete destruction, Parnell’s comments presented a more cautious perspective, showing that damage extent is still being considered.
Early DIA Reports More Conservative
Early estimates from the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), which arrived a little more than a day after the strikes, were much less certain. The initial report indicated that Iran’s program could be delayed at most by several months, not years.
Depending on what happens next, the DIA estimated a range of outcomes from Iran quickly revving up its nuclear plants with new gear to potentially closing down some sites altogether.
Fordow Facility Likely Affected, Says Intel
Among the sites that suffered damage, the Fordow uranium enrichment plant seems to have incurred immense damage. US intelligence reports that centrifuges within the facility could have been destroyed, but it is unclear whether the whole plant has been made operational-in-capacity.
Current intelligence assessments seek to ascertain the complete extent of the impact of the strike on the Fordow facility and other plants.
IAEA Chief Warns Iran Could Bounce Back Quickly
At the same time, Rafael Grossi, Director-General of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), cautioned on Sunday that Iran may restart enriched uranium production in a matter of months.
“They can have in a matter of months, I would say, a few cascades of centrifuges spinning and producing enriched uranium,” Grossi said. He added that Iran’s nuclear know-how “cannot simply be erased.”
His remarks highlighted the fear that despite the physical damage, Iran’s capabilities are intact and can enable a relatively quick recovery.
As the US continues to keep an eye on Iran’s nuclear program and evaluate the success of its recent military strikes, the future of nuclear diplomacy in the region is uncertain.