Iran Under Crisis As US Backs Israel: Khamenei’s Regime Near Breaking Point?

Ayatollah Khamenei now faces his most challenging moment since assuming power in 1989. As the US officially joins Israel’s war against Iran, fears of regime collapse have intensified. The US airstrikes on Saturday destroyed key Iranian nuclear sites, hitting Khamenei’s most vital leverage.

Israel had already degraded Iran’s military infrastructure, air defences, and proxy networks. Now, Khamenei stands nearly isolated, with little support from his battered Axis of Resistance. This internal and external pressure has left the Islamic Republic at its most vulnerable in more than four decades. Most analysts declare regime change not a far-off concept anymore.

From 1979 Revolution to 2025 Survival Fight

Iran’s ride started with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, who had promised to export the Islamic Revolution and eliminate Israel. In 2025, his heir, Khamenei, is merely attempting to hold on to what remains. While Israel deems this clash to be part of a war that has been ongoing since 1979, Tehran now contends with the direct intervention of the United States.

Alvite Ningthoujam, Symbiosis International University’s deputy director, believes Khamenei has no genuine alternatives. Israel’s Operation Rising Lion and US interference have destroyed Iran’s traditional deterrence as well as brought the regime to the precipice.

No Easy Path to Regime Change

Unlike Syria or Iraq, there is no apparent invasion or domestic armed resistance. Yet Khamenei might still fall. If the Supreme Leader and senior IRGC commanders are killed, the leadership void could usher in a new era. Even if he keeps his head intact, moderates might seize power in the face of increasing public discontent. That also would be a regime change.

Iranian internal frustration is famous. In 2022–23, large demonstrations erupted in response to the regime’s brutality, revealing fundamental fissures within. Israel’s strikes now can exacerbate those cracks—or trigger national solidarity.

Khamenei’s Dilemma: Fight, Surrender or Fall

Khamenei has two bad options. If he abandons the nuclear programme, he forfeits his sole lever of influence and gets toppled in a Gaddafi-esque manner. If he retains it, he courts further devastation. Either option takes his regime away from legitimacy.

Israel has already won a few objectives, according to Professor Daphne Richemond Barak of Reichman University. The Iranian nuclear programme is disable. The regime is weakened. And the US is now involved.

She continues, “This was a proxy war. Now Israel has attacked the head of the octopus.” Iran, she contends, cannot easily recover, as both its military capabilities and its network of proxies are left battered.

Will the Regime Survive the Storm?

The future hangs in the balance of whether Khamenei decides on escalation or negotiation. Trump’s administration has packaged the strikes as a means of compelling Iran to the table. But the ultimate result may not be a treaty—quite possibly, it might be the end of the regime we have come to know.

With its local influence broken and nuclear capability downgraded, Iran’s Supreme Leader is isolated. What started as an ideologically based revolution now threatens to conclude as a collapsed theocracy on its last legs.