West Asia, a continent influenced by more than a dozen significant post-WWII wars, descended into chaos once again as Israel-Iran tensions boiled over into all-out war. This most recent conflict validated the combustible cocktail of outside, regional, and internal pressures driving instability in the region.
The genesis of this conflict lies in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. For decades, Iran adopted an approach of fighting proxy wars but refraining from open confrontation with Israel. That came crashing down on June 13, 2025, when Israel attacked Operation ‘Rising Lion.’ Designed to stop Iran’s nuclear plans and forestall what Israel referred to as an “existential threat,” Israel conducted enormous air strikes on about 100 targets, including the nuclear sites at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan.
Early Israeli Strikes Weaken Iran’s Defence Infrastructure
Surprised, Iran took a crushing hit, losing close to 15% of its missile capability as well as some crucial air defence facilities. The strike also eliminated a number of top Iranian military leaders. Although Iran retaliated the following day with drone and missile attacks on Israeli soil, it had no air cover. Nevertheless, some of Iran’s hypersonic missiles penetrated Israel’s air defence infrastructure and inflicted damage on the infrastructure.
While Israel controlled the air and wrought havoc on Iranian military bases, the economic cost of a long war became unsustainable. The war was costing Tel Aviv several hundred million dollars each day. Iran, still possessing a huge arsenal of missiles, seemed better equipped for a long war.
US Joins the War: Operation ‘Mid Night Hammer’
On the 22nd of June, the conflict increased as America joined the battleground. As part of Operation ‘Mid Night Hammer,’ the US launched seven B-2 jets to target Iranian nuclear sites with GBU-57 bunker-buster bombs. The mission was a success, President Donald Trump announced, saying that “all three nuclear sites had been completely obliterated.”
Iran responded symbolically by attacking the US airbase in Al Udeid, Qatar, with missiles. The attack, though, did not cause any casualties or destruction.
Trump Facilitates Ceasefire With Qatar’s Intervention
The following day, Trump declared a gradual ceasefire between Israel and Iran facilitated by Qatar. Despite some minor truce breaches, the ceasefire formally came into operation on June 24 and continues to date. Diplomatic talks have now shifted focus to likely negotiations soon to resume.
Both Countries Declare Victory in Sustained Heavy Losses
As expected, each side declared victory. Iran declared a “national victory against the Jewish regime and America.” Israel, on its part, claimed it had achieved all its military objectives and “killed hundreds of terrorists in Iran.” The Israeli foreign ministry went one step further, declaring that the war brought Israel into the “ranks of the world’s leading powers.”
In fact, Israel gave a serious blow to Iran’s nuclear pursuits with the assistance of Americans and proved its capability to reach deep inside Iranian borders. According to Israeli Ambassador Joshua Zarka, “14 key Iranian nuclear scientists were killed.” Iran’s Health Ministry announced 627 citizens dead and 4,870 injured from Israeli attacks.
Iran’s Response Still Hit Israeli Infrastructure
Even without air cover, Iran was able to cause extensive damage. Iranian missiles targeted large hits on Haifa port, Ben Gurion airport, and military installations, causing 29 Israeli fatalities and 3,461 casualties. The psychological affect on Israeli civilians was huge. Iran’s ally militias—Hamas, Houthis, and Hezbollah—were still largely inactivity, their power much weakened by years of Israeli operations.
Global Response: US Acts, Allies Hold Back
While the US openly supported Israel, Iran allies Russia and China only provided diplomatic backing. Moscow urged restraint and proposed mediation, while Beijing advocated for dialogue, aspiring to present itself as a balanced peace negotiator. Fears of an impending oil crisis also propelled Gulf states such as Qatar and Oman to bring about ceasefire efforts at high speed.
The Muslim world demonstrated unmistakable signs of disintegration, for most Arab countries were more concerned with their national agendas than with regional cohesion. Most interestingly, Gulf states seemed to have limited autonomy in making foreign policy choices.
A Multipolar West Asia Emerges
The post-war situation heralds a strategic realignment in West Asia. The US is likely to enhance its security guarantees to Israel and Gulf partners. China is likely to expand its mediation role while aligning with Russia to counterbalance regional power. Russia can pursue a two-stage game—arming Iran while cultivating ties with Israel and Arab countries.
Turkey is still ready to exert regional leadership by projecting itself as a stabilizer and expanding its leverage in Iraq and Syria.
For India, staying in active mode is important. Instability in the region threatens key initiatives such as the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor (IMEEC) and the Chabahar Port.
What Lies Ahead: A Fragile Peace and Armed Vigilance
In the future, a new security order appears to be on the horizon. Israel and Iran could enter an era of mutual deterrence, supported by precision missile systems. Iran would not give up its nuclear aspirations and still has its potential to activate proxy forces. The Gulf states might develop regional missile defence systems and closer defence cooperation with the US and Israel. In the meantime, the Abraham Accords could expand, drawing more countries but diluting the Palestinian cause.
The potential for weaponisation of energy hubs and militarisation of sea lanes, particularly in the Red Sea, still exists. The global community will avert this by means of energy diversification policies.
Like all the great wars, the “12-Day War” is left with broken lives and fresh geopolitical realities. The regional scenario is to become multipolar, with world powers and regional players rechannelling tactics in a fragile and highly competitive world. With identity politics and open conflicts intervening, eternal peace in West Asia continues to be a utopian fantasy.