U.S. President Donald Trump said Israel has agreed to a 60-day Gaza ceasefire, a notion far from new. The two-month truce has been on the table since the previous fragile ceasefire collapsed in March. The same proposal was raised in May but was rejected by Hamas as not being anything more than a ruse for Israel to stop and resume its military operation, not create long-term peace.
As the Gaza humanitarian crisis continues to intensify, people are wondering if this new plan will be the result of anything different.
What’s in the New Proposal?
Facilitated by Qatar, the draft apparently calls for ten surviving hostages and the bodies of 18 others to be released by Hamas within the 60-day period. To this, Israel would release a number of Palestinian detainees.
If a full-fledged agreement is struck, the remaining 22 hostages will be released too. This phase is supposed to set the stage for negotiations regarding a definitive cessation of hostilities and an arrangement for post-war Gaza management.
But these conditions are remarkably similar to the three-phase, eight-week agreement that was initiated in January and collapsed following only the first stage of hostage releases. Negotiations for peace have repeatedly broken down since then.
Differing Goals of Hamas and Israel
For Hamas, a ceasefire must come after the end of the war and the total Israeli withdrawal from Gaza. For Israel, Hamas must be totally dismantled, its military wing disarmed, and its leaders exiled. These opposed goals still stand in the way of a lasting solution.
Why This Ceasefire Might Be Different
Some issues point towards this latest effort having a greater probability of success. Among the most important are the recent so-called ’12-day war’ between Israel and Iran. Israel celebrated this as a strategic victory that diminished Iran’s nuclear power though analysts warn the situation is far more nuanced.
This perceived victory provides Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu with political capital to try for a ceasefire, even over the objections of far-right coalition leaders who once threatened to bring down his government.
The battle between Iran and Israel, in which the U.S. conducted contentious airstrikes at Iranian nuclear facilities, also reignited Trump’s Middle East emphasis.
Throughout his first term, Trump was not eager to put pressure on Israel to advance beyond the first stage of the last ceasefire, which permitted war to resume by March.
Now, having militarily supported Israel against Iran, Trump has tremendous leverage over Netanyahu—leverage he could use during Netanyahu’s visit to Washington.
Both leaders also envision Iran’s weakened condition as an opportunity to enlarge the Abraham Accords, the deals Trump negotiated normalizing Israeli relations with a number of Arab states. Netanyahu has been particularly interested in a similar U.S.-sanctioned agreement with Saudi Arabia, and preliminary talks are even reported with Syria. These plans can’t go forward, though, as long as Gaza is under war.
Old and New Challenges
Despite this potential opening, many obstacles persist. It’s unclear whether the proposed terms will include solid guarantees preventing Israel from resuming hostilities after the 60-day period. Meanwhile, new complications have emerged since the last round of negotiations.
Hamas now demands a return to age-old aid distribution or even disbanding of the disputed Gaza Humanitarian Foundation (GHF), which substituted more than 400 former aid centers with only four within militarized zones.
Over 400 individuals have been killed since May 26 while attempting to seek assistance in the vicinity of these GHF centers. More than 170 international NGOs and charities called for its closure.
At the same time, Israel’s military control over Gaza has grown. Over 80% of Gaza is subject to evacuation orders, and new orders for northern Gaza and Gaza City were issued on June 29 and July 2.
Israeli leaders claim the operations are pressure on Hamas to sign a ceasefire agreement, although Netanyahu has publicly acknowledged plans for a permanent military presence in Gaza. He recently insisted Israel would have ‘full security control of Gaza’ after the war.
A Narrow Window for Peace
Despite these challenges, there is a narrow opportunity for a breakthrough. Trump is now more inclined to facilitate a ceasefire, and Netanyahu has an unusual political opportunity to sign a deal that can also bring back the hostages.
Meanwhile, Hamas has been weakened not just by Israel’s unremitting attacks but also by increasing frustration among the residents of Gaza, who long for peace.
There are myriad reasons to end the war in Gaza. The question is whether Hamas and Israel have the will to finally do so.