July 5 Earthquake Rumour from Manga Goes Viral—Truth or Hoax?

A manga prediction claiming a devastating earthquake will hit Japan on July 5 has stirred public anxiety. The forecast, made in a 2021 reprint of “The Future I Saw” by retired manga artist Ryo Tatsuki, warned of a catastrophic tsunami affecting countries around the Pacific Ocean.

Nicknamed Japan’s “New Baba Vanga,” Tatsuki became famous for reportedly predicting the 2011 Tohoku earthquake and tsunami. But last month she protested, “I am not a prophet,” and clarified her forecast “may not happen.” She also cautioned people against being “too influenced” by her nightmares, calling on the public to act according to expert opinion.

Seismologists Shoot Down Earthquake

Japan’s Meteorological Agency vehemently dismissed the forecast, declaring that “it is still impossible to predict an earthquake with specific timing, location or magnitude,” labeling the statement “a hoax” and “disinformation.

Nonetheless, anxieties heightened as more than 1,000 small earthquakes were felt close to the Tokara Islands and volcanic activity was seen at Mount Shinmoe — loosely following the manga’s timeline. Nevertheless, scientists argued that the incidents are accidental and have no connection with any prophecy.

Tourism Faces Fallout Amid Earthquake Fears

Tourist arrivals in Japan fell in May after a record 3.9 million visitors in April. Hong Kong travel companies such as Greater Bay Airlines and Hong Kong Airlines cancelled flights to Japan due to decreased demand. “Therumours have had a big effect,” Steve Huen of EGL Tours added, who also commented that bookings for Japan by his company had been cut in half.

While insurance for earthquakes and discounts have helped stabilize demand to some extent, it is not certain whether the decline is directly related to the manga claims.

Experts and Government Call for Sanity

The Japanese government was worried that individuals are being led by “groundless information.” Authorities and experts reiterated that earthquake readiness should always be an imperative in Japan—one of the most seismically active countries in the world—without succumbing to superstition and social media hype.

University of Tokyo professor Naoya Sekiya warned that rather than responding to unverifiable prophecies, “people need to be prepared all the time for a disaster.”

Real Risks Still Linger

Though the manga’s forecast is not scientific, Japan’s Earthquake Research Committee has cautioned of a valid 80% possibility of an earthquake measuring 9 on the Nankai Trough prior to 2055. Specialists project that the event would result in 300,000 fatalities and $2 trillion in economic damage.