On May 11, the highest authorities of the US and China held talks in Geneva to resume negotiations to ease the current trade war. The negotiations followed months of the imposition of tariffs and growing global economic uncertainty.

President Donald Trump later hinted at a “total reset” of US-China relations. Nevertheless, the question still remains as to whether the talks will lead to actual change or serve the interest of the Trump administration.

Location and Timing of Talks

The negotiations were conducted at a villa overlooking Lake Geneva. The meeting was hosted in Switzerland after US and Chinese officials paid a visit to the country. The neutral location underscored the diplomatic significance of the negotiations.

The two sides, however, maintained secrecy over details of the negotiations, and many are wondering if they will yield any tangible outcomes.

Trump’s Optimistic Tone: A New Chapter in Relations?

Following the meeting, Trump reported a rosy scenario. He described the talks as “friendly, but constructive” and reiterated the objective of opening China to more American business. Trump indicated progress without detailing any agreements. His enthusiasm in viewing the talks as successful is a testament to the administration’s efforts to demonstrate good results from the negotiations.

Even though he sounded optimistic, experts advise against over-reading Trump’s statement. The trade war is complicated, and making major breakthroughs in the near future continues to be unlikely.

China’s Advantage in the Trade War

China went into the negotiations confidently. Chinese exports to Southeast Asia increased despite the trade war, according to reports, which means that China had mitigated the effects of US tariffs. Analysts think that China is in a better position to weather the trade war due to its vast domestic market and diversified exports.

Gary Hufbauer, a Peterson Institute for International Economics expert, said Chinese leaders are better equipped to weather long-term economic stress. US officials, such as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, meanwhile, are facing increasing pressure at home.

Skepticism Surrounding the Talks

Prior to the Geneva gathering, Trump proposed lowering tariffs. Yet, experts are still doubtful about the long-term effect of the talks. While the US-UK trade negotiations generated optimism for sector-specific relief, US-China negotiations have more daunting challenges. Citigroup’s Nathan Sheets noted that significant breakthroughs are not likely, considering the profound differences between the two powers.

Although Trump’s optimism prevails, most experts concur that the war of trade is not yet finished. Any re-start may be in vain and will not solve the underlying economic problems.

Will Trump Benefit?

The Geneva US-China discussions can signal a change in tone, but it’s not clear if they will have substance. Trump is keen to display progress, but considerable obstacles are in the way. China’s robust export performance and clever positioning position it well for these negotiations. Whether this new start works out for the Trump administration hinges on whether it can achieve long-term modifications in trade behavior that will benefit both economies in the long term.

The US-China trade war is not yet over. Although a reset can be done, its success is uncertain.