China and Pakistan are engaged in advanced-level talks to create a new regional framework that would essentially replace the defunct South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC). The move, according to Pakistan’s Express Tribune, is intended to redefine the geopolitical structure of South Asia and limit India’s hegemony in regional matters.
The strategy involves creating a platform for regional connectivity, trade, and integration. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives, and Afghanistan, former members of SAARC, can be invited. Yet, China is likely to play a pivotal role, whereas India is going to be marginalized.
What’s on the Table?
Sources quoted by Express Tribune indicated that both China and Pakistan view SAARC as out of date in the wake of India-Pakistan tensions. They think a new group, unencumbered by bilateral blocks, can resuscitate regional cooperation.
One such recent trilateral meeting in Kunming, where China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh participated, was part of it. Bangladesh has dismissed any plans for an alliance in so far as the meeting was “not political.” But diplomatic sources indicate that preparation is already underway.
The new bloc would be centred around trade corridors, connectivity, and economic cooperation. These objectives dovetail with China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), particularly via the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC).
Why Replace SAARC Now?
SAARC, established in 1985, has been dormant since 2014. The last summit was attended in Kathmandu. India boycotted the 2016 Islamabad summit following the URI terror attack, accusing Pakistan-based militants.
After India’s withdrawal, other members such as Bangladesh, Bhutan, and Afghanistan followed suit. The organization has since lost all importance.
India has, in the meantime, redirected attention to BIMSTEC, an organization that does not include Pakistan and involves eastern neighbours. This is as China and Pakistan have strengthened cooperation to offset India’s rise in Indo-Pacific forums such as the Quad.
Will India Join the Bloc?
India could be officially invited to join the new group, reported The Express Tribune. But analysts think that the invitation would be symbolic. India will not join any grouping led by China and Pakistan.
Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Afghanistan are countries that could be interested, particularly if the bloc provides economic assistance or infrastructure projects.
Although no formal announcement has been made to date, New Delhi will likely see the move as a strategic threat. It is a departure from India-centric thinking that used to dominate SAARC.
New Competition in South Asia
The mooted China-supported grouping introduces a new element into South Asian geopolitics. It arrives at a time when India is expanding its global alliances and consolidating its place in the Indo-Pacific.
This new regional platform, if actualized, would potentially set off a recasting of the power dynamics within South Asia. For India, the task at hand is not merely reviving SAARC but also protecting its strategic space against increasing Chinese inroads.