Guadalupe River Surged 26 Feet in 45 Minutes: What Fueled Texas’ Deadly Storm?

Hundreds of rescuers sped through central Texas in a last-ditch attempt to find survivors after disastrous flash floods killed at least 43 people, including 15 children. As the search entered a second night, authorities said 27 children from a Christian youth camp near the Guadalupe River in Kerr County remained missing.

The disaster hit after the Guadalupe River swelled wildly increasing 26 feet (8 meters) in merely 45 minutes before sunrise consuming homes, cars, and anything else it came across. In a few areas, the river rose 22 feet in three hours, emphasizing the sheer power of the floodwaters.

Why the Floods Turned Deadly

Officials attributed the calamity to incessant rains brought about by groups of thunderstorms that stubbornly lingered over the same area of central Texas on Friday. Parts of the region were drenched with a month’s worth of rain within mere hours.

“It’s the extended excessive rain over a single location that makes them so deadly,” said Emily Heller, a meteorologist with the Austin-San Antonio National Weather Service office, in the New York Times.

The intensity was increased by a steady supply of water from the Gulf, which was blended with residual humidity from a pre-existing tropical storm that soaked Mexico’s Yucatán Peninsula earlier in the week. In a matter of hours, the weather changed radically what had been predicted as only a ‘chance of rain’ for July 4 by Thursday afternoon suddenly became a ‘chance for thunderstorms with heavy rain.’

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Did Officials Warn in Time?

The floods, which hit during the Fourth of July holiday weekend, surprised many locals, campers, as well as even authorities. Many residents later contended that there was insufficient prior warning of how rapidly the conditions would worsen.

Revelations show the initial flash-flood warning for Bandera County was not issued until late Thursday night. Later, about midnight Friday, the Weather Prediction Center, a branch of the National Weather Service that issues forecasts for heavy rain, predicted two- to three-inch hourly rainfall rates and noted a substantial threat of flash flooding based on the local topography.

By 1 a.m. Friday, the National Weather Service issued an alert regarding a ‘very dangerous flash flood event’ in Kerr County, reporting rain had intensified to three to four inches an hour and was not showing any signs of abatement. By around 4 a.m., they issued a ‘particularly dangerous situation’ warning for Kerr County, a category only reserved for the most extreme weather emergencies.

Certain warnings specifically identified communities such as Hunt, Kerrville, and Center Point along the Guadalupe River as areas of immediate concern, calling people to relocate to higher ground.

Adding to the tragedy was that most residents and campers were asleep when the floodwaters hit. The Weather Service reported that the warnings were designed to activate mobile phone alerts, with the intention of awaking individuals directly in the flood surges’ path.