The recent US airstrikes against Iranian nuclear facilities have undermined President Donald Trump’s anti-war reputation and rekindled fears in Beijing about the volatility of US foreign policy, according to diplomatic analysts.
The attacks, the US military’s most aggressive non-nuclear against Iran, were met with a retaliatory missile strike against a large American airbase in the area. Although Trump ran on an “America First” agenda and vowed to steer clear of expensive foreign wars, his move has led experts to re-examine how Beijing might respond to such military aggression.
While Trump subsequently declared a ceasefire on social media claiming both Israel and Iran had agreed to peace tensions remained high. Israel conducted further strikes shortly after the announcement, blaming Tehran for a breach of the truce, which it denied.
Analysts contend that the raid might double down on Chinese perceptions of Trump as a volatile and impulsive president who is willing to resort to the use of force. Isaac Kardon of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace stated Beijing might view the US as being more prone to take a military role elsewhere, leading China to double up on defenses around Taiwan and the South China Sea.
Josef Mahoney, a political scientist based in Shanghai, said the strikes debunked the myth that Trump is a peace leader. James F Downes of Hong Kong Metropolitan University commented that the incident could speed up China’s military and strategic planning to prepare against potential future US intervention in Asia.
However, experts like Kardon noted the strategic calculus in East Asia differs significantly from the Middle East, making a US escalation near China less likely.
Still, the strikes may shift China’s diplomatic posture. Analysts believe the episode will reinforce Beijing’s belief in Trump’s erratic approach and could alter how China engages with the US moving forward, especially over sensitive regional disputes.
