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Billions at Stake: Australia Dares Trump to Kill Submarine Pact

Australia believes the AUKUS submarine deal will proceed despite a new U.S. review. Defence Minister Marles says the pact benefits all three nations, while Albanese prepares to meet Trump at the G7 to discuss security and spending.

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Billions at Stake: Australia Dares Trump to Kill Submarine Pact

Australia’s Defence Minister Richard Marles has expressed confidence that the AUKUS nuclear submarine pact with the U.S. and U.K. will continue. He reassured even as the new Trump administration reviews the deal. In an interview, Marles said the review wasn’t unexpected and that the long-term strategy behind AUKUS remains strong.

Australia Backs AUKUS Submarine Deal Despite U.S. Review

“I am very confident this is going to happen,” Marles said, emphasising that AUKUS is a multi-decade plan. “There will be governments that come and go and I think whenever we see a new government, a review of this kind is going to be something which will be undertaken.”

AUKUS, signed in 2021 during President Biden’s term, will provide Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. It marks Australia’s largest-ever defence project, with a $368 billion (A$) commitment over 30 years. Under this plan, Australia is set to make a $2 billion payment in 2025. This will help the U.S. expand its submarine shipyards. The first $500 million payment was already made in February when Marles met with U.S. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Submarine Production Delays & Defence Spending Debates

Concerns remain over the U.S.‘s ability to meet submarine production goals. Elbridge Colby, a senior Pentagon adviser involved in the AUKUS review, has warned that the U.S. may be giving away submarines at a time when they are vital for deterring China. Marles acknowledged this: “It is important that those production and sustainment rates are improved.”

Australia’s Prime Minister, Anthony Albanese will meet President Trump next week during the G7 summit in Canada. They are expected to discuss tariffs and a U.S. request for Australia to raise defence spending from 2% to 3.5% of GDP. Albanese has committed to 2.3% but remains non-committal on the 3.5% target.

Security expert John Lee from the Hudson Institute noted the review is mostly about U.S. capacity: “It’s primarily an audit of American capability,” he said. He also added that Australia’s relatively low defence spending and unclear stance on Taiwan are factors in the review.

Charles Edel of CSIS emphasised that Albanese should seek assurance from Trump. He added that both nations must “boost their own defence capabilities, enhance allied integration, and deliver deterrent effects with a sense of urgency.”

Britain’s recent AUKUS review was positive, with plans to increase its fleet of nuclear-powered submarines. Joint development of a new AUKUS-class submarine by Australia and the U.K. is scheduled to begin service in 2040.